Practice and qualifying is over in Las Vegas. 1st practice session you really can't take much from as far as notes, people are just finding the handle, and switching back and forth from race to qualifying setup.
Likewise, don't panic if your driver is starting a little deep in the field. Las Vegas is one of the most forgiving tracks as far as winners coming from the back. There is room to pass, pit road is nice and wide so pit selection isn't overly critical either.
Let's take a look at some final practice numbers:
10-Lap Averages, in MPH:
Ky. Busch - 182.451
Edwards - 182.419
Kenseth - 182.163
Allmendinger - 182.001
Menard - 181.979
Newman - 181.796
Reuitmann - 181.783
Ku. Busch - 181.386
Ambrose - 181.327
Martin - 180.339
Burton - 180.336
Smith - 180.325
Logano 180.317
Stewart - 180.117
Bowyer - 180.102
McMurray - 180.048
Hamlin - 180.022
Gilliland - 179.017
J. Gordon - 177.966
and here are the noteables from OVERALL Lap Averages (all laps added together), I've only included this weeks "noteable" drivers:
A-List:
Edwards - 37 Laps - 29.68
Biffle - 39 - 29.73
Ky. Busch - 61 - 29.84
Johnson - 37 - 29.99
Gordon - 42 - 30.23
B-List:
Reuitmann - 55 - 29.89
Burton - 58 - 29.92
Kahne - 37 - 29.95
Newman - 55 - 29.96
Martin - 54 - 29.96
Logano - 48 - 29.97
Bowyer - 46 - 30.03
C-List:
Menard - 45 - 29.80
Bayne - 37 - 29.89
Ragan - 56 - 29.99*
Smith - 43 - 30.66
Labonte - 42 - 30.11
* = Takes into account an off lap of over 35 seconds when Bill Elliott spun out in the session.
For me, I look at the 10-Lap Averages, as it shows 1 block session of how a driver runs. The overall lap averages are good to look at for who made longer runs, but it can be "skewed" with guys taking fresh tires often and making shorter runs will appear at the top of the charts.
If you followed my lead, you have the following to choose from as you look to lockdown your lineup:
99 - Carl Edwards or 24 - Jeff Gordon
20 - Joey Logano, 4 - Kasey Kahne, 31 - Jeff Burton, 33 - Clint Bowyer
6 - David Ragan or 21 - Trevor Bayne
For our lineup, we're rolling with the following:
A-LIST:
99 - CARL EDWARDS (8 Starts Remaining) - If you've got a blue oval Ford available, use it. This has always been a Roush favored track, and this weekend is no different. The Ford's look outstanding, I wish I had Fords in my B-List to use quite frankly. I used Edwards last week when he was the best car on track, I think he's got the best car on track this weekend as well (although he's really close with Kyle Busch). We're burning another Cousin Carl start this week.
Jeff Gordon gets the bench, his lap averages aren't great, even though he's telling everyone in the media "don't worry about it"....I'm worrying about it. He's gonna have a decent run, but in the A-List, I'm looking for winners, not Top 10.
My A-List Ranks as a whole: 99, 18, 17, 16, 48, 11, 22, 24, ect.
Kyle Busch is putting up impressive numbers, and this is a track where you've got to drive it aggressive through the corners, and we all know Kyle has no problem being aggressive. I also like that Kyle made a nice long run in final practice, got good data, and his lap times did not fall off that bad. If for some reason you picked Matt Kenseth on your A-List, congrats, use him, he's a great start save here and could contender for the win. Greg Biffle should be decent, although I am not sure if he's a race winner, car is just a touch off of Edwards and Kenseth. Jimmie Johnson has openly admitted he's in testing mode (and he was also last week and got a Top 5). He's going to be good, but I'll use my 48 starts when I know he's a race winner. Kurt Busch and Denny Hamlin are just not up to par this week, will have decent runs but you can get better value out of them elsewhere.
B-LIST:
31 - JEFF BURTON (8 Starts Remaining) - We've said it before, use Burton early, I don't think he's going to have a good season and I feel like turmoil is going to continue to drag this team down. Burton has a decent ride under him, he was very consistent in his long runs, not much fall off on his lap times. Burton has a great track record here in the past, so I am burning another Burton start here for sure.
20 - JOEY LOGANO (8 Starts Remaining) - I'm not thrilled on using a Logano start this week, but I feel like its the best option I've got personally. Logano is fast on a very short run, but his lap times fall off, bad. I'm hoping he can pull from Kyle Busch a little bit and get the car better, and he does have a decent starting position. I'm rolling the dice this week and say the 20 bounces back.
I'm benching Clint Bowyer for sure, he's the stud of our B-List and no way am I using him at a place where he does not have Top 10 potential. Bowyer has never got the handle on this ride yet this weekend and starts deep in the field. Kasey Kahne is much like Logano this week, starts off decent but lap times fall off pretty bad and pretty quick. I'm picking Logano over Kahne because at least Logano has a solid team mate to lean on.
My B-List Ranks: 31, 5, 39, 00, 43, 56, 20, 9, 33, 4, ect.
I was steering clear of Mark Martin going into this weekend with an overall lack of confidence in his team and performance, and I am happy to report....I was wrong. If you've got the 5, use him. Much like Burton I don't know if this team is going to be any better than they are right now later in the season, use your Martin starts now, he'll have great confidence coming off his Nationwide win. Ryan Newman, David Reutimann and Martin Truex Jr. are all great start saves this week, all have solid rides this weekend with decent numbers in practice without a lot of fall off on the lap times. Richard Petty Motorsports is looking decent with A.J. Allmendinger and Marcos Ambrose, I'm not sure if I'd start Ambrose but I would give serious consideration to Allmendinger who's riding decent momentum and has a much better car than I thought he would.
C-LIST:
6 - DAVID RAGAN - (9 Starts Remaining) -This is a gamble, for sure. He'd be a lock if he didn't dump it in qualifying. The car is solid, he had some good long runs in the practice session where the lap times did not fall off too bad. I worry that he's not going to be able to get through traffic, and he might be trapped a lap down early if there is an early green flag run. But I need to start using some Ragan starts, he needs a good run, I'm gambling (c'mon, it's VEGAS) on the 6 coming from the rear this week.
I'm benching Trevor Bayne, car is ok at best, but his lap times fell off pretty quick and he did not make any long runs. Couple that with his lack of experience and I am just not ready to pull the trigger on the 500 winner just yet.
C-List Ranks: 27, 6, 78, 21, 47, ect.
Use Paul Menard, without question. The car is very strong, we're looking at Top 10 potential here. He's the best RCR car on track. Regan Smith isn't a whole lot to write home about, it's a toss up on the rankings with him and Bayne. Nothing impressed me with Bobby Labonte either with lap times and fall off.
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