Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Indy is in the books and you have to look far beyond the final running order to get the scope of who ran well. Team FNG survived with 284 points and moved up to the 96% overall.

Look for more of the same at Pocono, another fuel mileage race could be on the horizon. Also don't fall too heavily on Indy, a lot of the results don't coorilate to Pocono 2. Even the drivers commented on how much rougher Pocono has got which makes it much more different than Indy.

However for statistical purposes, lets once again look at the last 2 years at Pocono (2011 Pocono 1, 2010, 2009 and Indy 2010/2009):

AVERAGE FINISH:
A-LIST:
Stewart - 6th
Harvick - 8th
Johnson - 9th
Gordon - 12th

B-LIST:
Bowyer - 11th
Montoya - 12th
Newman - 12th
Martin - 13th

Burton - 14th
Kahne - 14th
Vickers - 14th
Reutimann - 16th

C-LIST:
Menard - 20th
Ragan - 21st
Smith - 27th
Labonte - 30th

% of LAPS INSIDE TOP 15:
A-LIST:
Gordon - 86%
Biffle - 84%
Johnson - 81%
Stewart - 76%

B-LIST:
Kahne - 82%
Montoya - 77%
Martin - 73%
Vickers - 68%

Bowyer - 64%
Burton - 58%
Newman - 57%
Earnhardt Jr. - 48%

C-LIST:
Menard - 14%
Ragan - 13%
Smith - 7%
Labonte - 1%


OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-LIST:
Johnson - 111
Gordon - 103
Biffle - 100
Hamlin - 100

B-LIST:
Montoya - 104
Martin - 95
Kahne - 94
Bowyer - 92

Vickers - 88
Burton - 88
Newman - 84
Reutimann - 77

C-LIST:
Ragan - 64
Menard - 60
Smith - 55
Labonte - 45

Don't forget, we get to see 2 practices on Friday before locking down, so we'll lean on results from those sessions to make our final decisions:

A-LIST:
Jeff Gordon will be a popular pick and for good reason. Great car at Indy, great car at Pocono 1, even a great car at Loudon before all of the issues. This team is hot right now and there is no reason not to continue to ride the wave.

I also really like Kurt Busch here. He's been killing it in qualifying and track position is important here. Kurt didn't have the best weekend at Indy but still pulled it together to have a solid overall run. Kevin Harvick had a great car at Indy and is also solid at Pocono, but was a victim of track position at Indy and never got a chance to show how good his car was. If he can ever get it together in qualifying, look out.

Denny Hamlin is another strong pick but I just can't get behind JGR with all of these engine problems, especially at Pocono with shifting to keep higher RPMs and sustained RPMs at the end of the straits. I'm going to have to see a lot of my other favorites tank to get behind Hamlin. Jimmie Johnson continues to look strong and continues to shoot himself in the foot, and with another fuel mileage race I'm not sure I can afford to burn another Johnson start on another fuel mileage event.

Some people are saying you should use Carl Edwards before the distractions set in, and I say its unnecessary and it might be too late. The A-List is stacked and you should be looking for race winners every week, and if that means benching Edwards for the rest of the year, so be it. Edwards didn't have much to brag about at Indy. On the other hand look at Matt Kenseth as a potential sleeper this weekend.

B-LIST:
Kasey Kahne could, and probably should be where Paul Menard is this week. The best car at Indy and could of secured a wild card spot with a win, this team will be looking for a win this week and will make my team. I'm also going to ride Juan Pablo Montoya as well, who had a solid car at Indy and Pocono. I'm looking to burn up some JPM starts because I feel if this team doesn't win at Pocono or Watkins Glen, they'll be done for the chase and go into test mode for the rest of 2011.

A couple of drivers who have potential but are by no means a lock are Ryan Newman, Dale Earnhardt Jr, and Clint Bowyer. Newman has been decent at Pocono in the past and showed a few flashes of brilliance at Indy. Same story goes for Junior, however both drivers I'd prefer to save for the short tracks were they are much stronger. Bowyer is still in a slump and need to get something going at Pocono here where they have been strong, but he is no lock to make the team.

Two sleeper options this week are Brian Vickers and A.J. Allmendinger. Again, both drivers were quietly solid at Indy and have had success at Pocono in the past, I'll be keeping an eye on both drivers in practice on Friday.

C-LIST:
I'm on the same C-List I was in Indy, no way you can bench Paul Menard this week but he's not an auto start either. Regan Smith has been strong at Pocono and Indy and you could get a quality start out of the 78, especially if he starts up front. I'm not big on David Ragan even though he was arguably the best C-Lister before strategy took over the running order, Ragan has never been as strong at Pocono.