MARTINSVILLE 1 - Preview

The first go round this year to the paperclip. This is a track where you can roll out some studs, and save some others. Good news/bad news this week is that qualifying is on Saturday for the Cup series. The good news is Saturday qualifying means you get to watch 2 practice sessions on Friday and you don't have to lock in your lineup until Saturday morning. Bad news it makes reading those practice sessions potentially more difficult to read as certain teams may not make any long race runs and focus solely on qualifying.

With that being said, we're going to give you the Loop Data and the "drivers to watch" on Friday. We will be posting our lineup Friday night and then posting who we are locking into the starting positions on Saturday evening.

Let's take a look at the data from Martinsville only, from all the COT races (2007-2010):

AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION:
A-LIST:
Hamlin - 3rd
Johnson - 3rd
Gordon - 5th
Edwards - 13th

B-LIST:
Martin - 10th
Keselowski - 11th
Earnhardt Jr - 12th
Burton - 12th

Newman - 13th
Logano - 13th
Bowyer - 14th
Montoya - 15th

C-LIST:
Ragan - 18th
Menard - 20th
Mears - 22nd
Labonte - 29th

% of LAPS IN TOP 15:
A-LIST:
Johnson - 95%
Gordon - 95%
Hamlin - 87%
Edwards - 76%

B-LIST:
Earnhardt Jr - 78%

Martin - 77%
Burton - 77%
Bowyer - 74%

Vickers - 74%
McMurray - 60%
Newman - 54%
Logano - 51%


C-LIST:
Mears - 39%
Ragan - 34%
Schrader - 22%
Labonte - 17%

OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-LIST:
Johnson - 125

Hamlin - 120

Gordon - 119

Harvick - 98

B-LIST:
Earnhardt Jr - 104
Martin - 101

Burton - 99

Bowyer - 91


Newman - 89

McMurray - 88

Vickers - 85

Montoya -83


C-LIST:
Ragan - 72
Mears - 68
Schrader - 58
Menard - 57


Now let's take a look at the "Flat Tracks" (Martinsville, Loudon, Richmond, Phoenix) from 2010 only:

AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION:
A-LIST:
Johnon - 8th
Gordon - 8th
Hamlin - 9th
Ky. Busch - 9th

B-LIST:
Newman - 9th
Harvick - 10th
Logano - 11th
Bowyer - 13th

Burton - 15th
Earnhardt Jr - 16th
Martin - 16th
Allmendinger - 17th


C-LIST:
Ragan - 21st
Menard - 24th
Mears - 30th
Labonte - 33rd


% of LAPS IN TOP 15:
A-LIST:
Johnson - 93%

Ky. Busch - 88%

Edwards  83%

Gordon - 77%

B-LIST:
Burton - 82%

Newman - 81%
Bowery - 79%

Montoya - 78%


Allmendinger - 59%

Logano - 58%

Reutimann - 48%

Earnhardt Jr - 46%



C-LIST:
Menard - 17%
Ragan - 9%
Gordon - 4%
Smith - 4%


OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-LIST:
Johnson - 111

Ky. Busch - 110

Hamlin - 107

Gordon - 103


B-LIST:
Burton - 103

Bowyer - 103

Newman - 98

Montoya - 93


Logano - 89

Allmendinger - 84

Earnhardt Jr - 82

Reutimann - 82


C-LIST:
Menard - 64

Ragan - 63

Mears - 55
Smith - 54


With all the data above, factoring in Phoenix 1 performance (the only other flat track they've been to so far), Bristol 1 performance, and momentum from California, we're watching the following drivers on Friday:


A-LIST:
JIMMIE JOHNSON (9 Starts Remaining) - Don't be lured into the 'start save' mentality too much here. The A-List is not a place you need to start save, it's a place where you need to pick race winners. That being said, this is an excellent track for Jimmie Johnson. He basically leads all categories at Martinsville and on the Flat Tracks in 2010. I'm not worried about the 48 "testing" here, as there are so many flat short tracks in the country you can test on. And after getting punted from the lead within eyesight of the checkered flag, and being winless so far in 2011, I think a very motivated 48 team rolls into Martinsville.

DENNY HAMLIN (9 Starts Remaining) - Won both races in 2010, and I am not worried about engine failure here (that story could change if they grenade another one on Friday in any of the 3 JGR cars). Unless I see smoke from the tailpipes on Friday, he's getting serious consideration for Sunday.

JEFF GORDON (9 Starts Remaining) - This is a guy you rarely find me placing on my A-List team, I'm not a Gordon-hater, but he just doesn't strike me as a "potential race winner" too often. This could be one of the rare times that he does. Won at Phoenix this year, excellent track record here and a good qualifying run by the 24 will get him starting consideration.

Kyle Busch just misses consideration this week. When I think Martinsville I think smart drivers who can float it into the corners and save the brakes. Smart and non-aggressive driving is not something I relate to Kyle Busch. Also keeping the nugget of information when Carl Edwards slipped in his post race interview in Bristol stating "I still owe Kyle 1", Martinsville is the perfect track to cash that IOU. The rest of the A-List drops off steadily from here and it would be a Friday practice miracle if I would consider anyone else in the A-List for a start.

B-LIST:
DALE EARNHARDT Jr. (9 Starts Remaining) - !? Junior leading off my B-List on a non-restrictor plate track!? Believe it. The B and C list I am looking to reach for some start-saves. I believe guys like Clint Bowyer and Ryan Newman are going to be really valuable at a lot of other tracks, so unless they're performing at a solid Top 10-Top 5 level, they will find the bench come Sunday. Back to Junebug, he's got momentum building, had a decent 10th place finish at Phoenix this year, has great stats at this track, with Steve Letarte who also has a great track record here with Gordon. Junior will get serious starting consideration this week.

RYAN NEWMAN (8 Starts Remaining) - I'd love to start-save Newman here, but I have a feeling it won't happen. Newman leads the B-List in overall performance this year and he's solid on the short tracks. With qualifying being at a premium here it would not surprise me to see the Rocket Man start Top 10 and grab one of my 2 B-List starting spots.

MARK MARTIN (7 Starts Remaining) - A lot of people are pretty sour after Martin performed at C-List level last weekend, and hence they're jumping off the wagon. I have lost some of my faith for Martin, but the reason he's become such a disappointment is his inability to keep up with the changing race track. You don't have changing track issues here at Martinsville, so this might be a place to burn a Martin start, especially if he qualifies well.

JEFF BURTON (7 Starts Remaining) -!? Jeff "You're Dead To Me" Burton!? Same theory as Martin, Burton's past track record here, RCR momentum as a whole coming into this weekend, and the fact that I'd like to be done with my Burton starts, he will get consideration.

BRAD KESELOWSKI (9 Starts Remaining) - You won't see Kez's name pop up on the loop data at too many tracks, but it does here at Martinsville. Although he doesn't have much in the way of momentum the last few races, he did manage a 15th in Phoenix however. This could be a sleeper reach, and will be one I will keep a close eye on this week.

I of course will be keeping an eye on Clint Bowyer, but as always, I'm going to need to see solid Top 10 potential to roll out a moderately "risky" start here at M'ville. Joey Logano finished 2nd and 6th here last year but he's been so terrible that he'll have to impress to get a starting spot come Sunday. Slight glance will be given to Brian Vickers as well on past numbers and momentum from California.

C-LIST:
BOBBY LABONTE (9 Starts Remaining) - I'm going to have to find a darn good reason not to start-save and get a Labonte start here at Martinsville. His past numbers here aren't great but he's been in low-grade equipment. It was pretty obvious from Las Vegas and California that we can't get a Labonte start at a majority of the bigger tracks. Between his 21st at Phoenix and his Top 10 run at Bristol, the 47 will have to be all but junk to not get the start.

DAVID RAGAN (8 Starts Remaining) - If Labonte is out to lunch (eating one of those famous hot dogs) Ragan should be a suitable backup. Again Ragan has shown to be a disappointment at Vegas and California, so we need to find other tracks where he's got potential. He had a decent run at Phoenix going until he was caught in the wreck, and he also put together a Top 15 run at Bristol. With his past numbers here also being pretty solid, Ragan is my go-to guy this week.

Unless Paul Menard is Top 5-8 potential, he's getting benched. He's a solid 10-12 spots better than the rest of the C-List at the larger tracks that make up most of the schedule, so we need him at every opportunity we've got at those places. So unless he's a good 15+ spots better than the rest of the C-List, Menard gets the bench this week. Regan Smith stats are junk here and were junk at the flat tracks in 2010. He did show promise at Phoenix before getting wrecked, but I doubt I'll be using a 78 start. Trevor Bayne gets the big red X through him this week. Like Bristol, this is another place that eats rookies alive.


Check back late Friday for a practice wrap up and our lineup heading into qualifying, and check back Saturday to see who will get the 4 starting positions. As always, join the conversation with the experts over at http://www.FantasyNascarPreview.com on their forum all weekend long!