LAS VEGAS - Wrap Up

It was a day of surprises for sure in Sin City, some unfamiliar names at the front of the field took all the experts by surprise:

A-LIST:
We picked our first race winner of the year, starting Carl Edwards in our A-List. This team is about as hot as it gets in NASCAR, 2nd at Daytona, what should of been a win in Phoenix, and a win in Vegas (add that to the 2 wins from the end of 2010). Now we're not ready to de-throne the 48 just yet, but I do suggest you use your Edwards starts while Roush has the upper hand.

Technically, Tony Stewart was your best pick this week in the A-List, grabbing those most laps led bonus points. Stewart flew a bit under the radar to most of the experts all week and didn't show that much in practice, making only short runs. Early Pit Strategy and clean air really made his car look sharp. We'll have an eye on him when it comes to some of the "sweeping" 1.5 mile tracks upcoming (Kansas, Chicago, ect.)

Couple of people in the live chat asked me Kyle Busch or Jeff Gordon as their starter this week. I said Busch which was the correct pick as Kyle had a Top 5 day going until his troubles hit. Gordon didn't fair much better, and was destined to be a Top 10 car until the tire failure bit him. Gordon was the biggest disappointment of the weekend, the team never found the handling of the car and although he improved before his wreck, it was a far cry from his dominance here a year ago.

Do not be afraid to load up on Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth early in the season as well. Kenseth was in line for his typical Top 10 with Top 5 potential day, Biffle had a potential race winner if it wasn't for terrible gaffe's on pit road (which I am sure will be addressed during this off weekend). Both Biffle and Kenseth were very strong at Texas 2 last season and I expect the Ford's to shine at Fontana, especially if the weather is warm.

I'm saving my Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin starts for a bit later down the line, Johnson has openly admitted he's testing some different things in the beginning part of the season. Pile that on top of Hendrick's performance overall looking a bit lack-luster and the late-season charge the 48 seems to make, I'm saving Johnson for the latter part of the year. Hamlin and Joe Gibbs Racing will need to prove themselves a little to me on the larger tracks before I start them, especially with engine reliability. I would not shy away from JGR at Bristol because of reliability issues however.


B-LIST:
Our picks ended up poorly here with Jeff Burton and Joey Logano, especially frustrating to burn 2 Logano starts in a row with poor finishes. Logano did turn the corner this weekend and showed why you'll be using darn near all 9 starts out of him, again I'd like to see a little more from JGR on the big tracks before I burn my 3rd Logano start.

Jeff Burton might be done for the year, which is a stunner. This team simply can not get out of the hole they've dug themselves into. It just looked like a complete lack of effort yesterday on track, clean air was key and the team never gave Burton a chance to get some of it with pit strategy. The car was decent but it never moved through the field thanks to the dreaded return of aero-push (more on that subject later). I suspected this downward spiral would happen later in the year, but it's here now, and Burton is a toxic commodity on the B-List. I'm staying away until some stroke of good luck appears.


Richard Petty Motorsports is for real, which is a huge shock to me as I thought they would be god awful this season. Coupled with the Ford's strength I am buying into A.J. Allmendinger and Marcos Ambrose, these guys were strong all weekend long. Allmendinger got trapped mid pack and could never recover due to the aero-push yesterday.


I'm not sold on Juan Pablo Montoya and Earnhardt Ganassi just yet. Even by Juan and his crew chief's admission, they had an "ok mid pack" car going into the race. They played the strategy game early in the race, got clean air, and looked like a rocket ship. Jamie McMurray on the other hand got stuck in mid pack and could go no where before losing the handle on his ride and slipping deep into the field. Both of these guys had about the same car going into the race, one got a Top 5, the other struggled around 25th, too big of a risk/wild card for me to buy into them just yet.


I am on board with the small momentum swing Dale Earnhardt Jr. has going. Junior is certainly one of the more temperamental fantasy drivers, when he's bad, it gets worse and when it's good, he can string together a few decent finishes, especially if he's got some of his strong tracks on the upcoming schedule. Bristol happens to be one of those tracks. Mark Martin was also another big disappointment. Decent race car that could never make any headway through the middle of the pack because of aero-push.

Ryan Newman is for real and for a team and driver who typically gets off to a slow start I'm looking for big things to continue to happen for car 39. He'll be getting 1.5 mile consideration as qualifying/track position could be a key factor on those tracks, and we know Newman's qualifying record. Clint Bowyer had a mediocre weekend, and there was no way I was using one of his 9 starts on an so-so finish, he'll be Top 10 material at more than 9 races this year, be patient, keep him on your B-List often, he'll carry you this season, eventually.


C-LIST:
Paul Menard. Enough said. Surprisingly he's been the stud of not only the C-Group, but also RCR. He's an auto green-light for 1.5 mile tracks with his performance last year and his strength this year, so much so that I am hesitant to use him at Bristol where he's also had a strong track record.

Regan Smith is a name not many are going to talk about with his early exit from the race, but he's been qualifying well (which is going to be important on the 1.5 milers I feel) and his car looked to be Top 15 before it went away. He's one of 2 drivers that will get consideration to get paired with Paul Menard at the 1.5s

Trevor Bayne is the other guy who will get hand-cuffed to Menard. Bayne was actually moving his way forward through the field early which was a bit of a surprise considering his practice performance. His pit road violation really killed his momentum, and Kenseth putting him into the fence further derailed a good run. But with a wrecked race car and pit road penalties, he still out-performed the 6 car.


Which brings me to David Ragan, the warning lights and red flags are at an all-time high. Ragan threw away a potential pole run on Friday and it killed his race. Although he was able to move through the back-markers early, once around the 25th spot his car stalled out and his performance was sub-par. This is the 3rd race in a row where he's had very good equipment, and the 3rd time in a row he's got nothing to show for it. With Bayne's performance I feel that the chance of Ragan finishing out the season is all but gone outside of some miracle turn around in the coming weeks.


So it is strategy time, remember before the season we broke the C-List down as needing:
9 Menard Starts
9 Smith Starts
9 Ragan Starts
4-5 Bayne Starts
4-5 Wild Card Starts (Bobby Labonte, 2 Road Courses, 3 Restrictor Plate Tracks)


If Ragan gets bounced out of the 6 ride for Bayne, you'll need to flip flop your Ragan and Bayne starts, that means you'll need to burn about 4-5 Ragan starts by about Race 24, as I feel like the chase is about the earliest Roush will make a switch.




For the upcoming 1.5 and larger tracks, I will be using a little more weight on qualifying than I normally would. Track position was absolutely king at Vegas, a track that normally isn't that difficult to pass on. Guys with decent race cars could not make even the slightest headway against a somewhat equal car yesterday. Early cautions jumbled up the running order yesterday, which is not typical for larger tracks. Track position will be huge as battling from the back appears to be very difficult with this new-nosed car.


I am also looking at the Ford's who may be even stronger than we think. The FR9 runs cool, but cooler than expected temperatures in Las Vegas yesterday allowed all the other makes to run more tape as well. When the hot summer months come in I think the Ford's are going to have an even bigger advantage running more tape on the nose and helping down force. We'll see how this plays out in the coming weeks.




We are going to take some time off ourselves with the off-week approaching, we'll mull over the stats and data from Bristol and have our lineup posted in plenty of time for everyone to review. As always, thanks for reading, and don't forget to join us for the live chats leading up to each green flag on Sundays!