FONTANA - Lineup

After coming off a season high 348 points from Bristol, it's onto the long sweeping curves of Southern California. First we'll take a look at the Loop Data, which will consist of all the races 2008-2010 at both Michigan and Fontana:

AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION:
A-List:
Edwards - 8th
Johnson - 9th
Stewart - 9th
Kenseth - 10th

B-List:
Vickers - 10th
Bowyer - 14th
Logano - 14th
Kahne - 16th

Martin - 16th
Reutimann - 17th
Montoya - 18th
Burton - 18th

C-List:
Ragan - 17th
Mears - 24th
Elliott - 24th
Smith - 26th

% of LAPS in TOP 15:
A-List:
Johnson - 93%
Biffle - 80%
Edwards - 80%
Kenseth - 77%

B-List:
Vickers - 69%
Martin - 65%
Kahne - 65%
Montoya - 56%

Bowyer - 53%
Burton - 50%
Reutimann - 48%
Earnhardt Jr - 46%

C-List:
Ragan - 42%
Mears - 14%
Menard - 9%
Kvapil - 9%

OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Johnson - 126
Edwards - 102
Gordon - 102
Biffle - 100

B-List:
Vickers - 99
Martin- 92
Kahne - 91
Bowyer - 85

Montoya - 85
Earnhardt Jr - 81
Reutimann - 78
Burton - 78

C-List:
Ragan - 78
Mears - 60
Menard - 53
Smith - 52


Now that we have the Loop Data reviewed, we'll factor in momentum from Bristol and performance from Las Vegas with a few other factors mixed in. The result is our lineup heading into the weekend:


A-LIST:
CARL EDWARDS (7 Starts Remaining) - Let me first say you can go ahead and tag me with a big blue oval on my forehead this weekend as I think the Fords as a whole will be stout. These tracks have always favored the Fords and with the momentum of Edwards and his performance at Las Vegas there is no doubt I will gladly burn another 99 start this weekend if need be. Edwards is my LOCK of the week.

TONY STEWART (9 Starts Remaining) - I'll allow you to pick your jaw up off the floor that I did not pick Jimmie Johnson for the team this week. Johnson's numbers at these tracks are unbelievable without a doubt, however I am going to roll the dice and go with Stewart this week. Stewart won the fall race here and was impressive the last time the held a spring race in California. Couple that with a strong run from Vegas and I'm gambling on the 14 this week as a potential starter.

No Jimmie Johnson!? This move is not for the faint at heart, and I can't fault anyone for almost auto-starting Johnson here, but my fear is this team and them openly "testing" for later in the season. It once again showed their testing mode in Bristol where they weren't even concerned about running the new tire compound in practice. This is a fuel mileage type track, and it would not surprise me at all if the 48 tries a different setup that could potentially give them more horsepower...but also run them out of fuel. Pair that with the team struggling in Las Vegas also gives me a small red flag. It's still a long season, I've got plenty of opportunities to auto start Johnson later in the year, so for now, he finds the bench.

One could also argue on getting a start-save out of Greg Biffle or Matt Kenseth, both of which I believe will easily be Top 10 and probably Top 5 cars by the end of the day. These are the only two other drivers I'd go with outside of the 3 mentioned above. Jeff Gordon's numbers are fair here but I don't perceive this team to be a race winner after the struggles in Vegas. I am still a bit cautious over the engine troubles at JGR so Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch, coupled with their mediocre Loop Data, aren't anywhere close to starting status.

B-LIST:
MARK MARTIN (8 Starts Remaining) - When you think fuel mileage, you think Mark Martin. This guy is a pro at feathering the throttle when need be. Add that to good Loop Data and a solid weekend in Bristol and Martin finds my roster this weekend. I am a bit concerned over the mediocre Las Vegas results, so he is by no means a lock to start the race.

KASEY KAHNE (8 Starts Remaining) - You may not have noticed, but Kahne is having a very solid and impressive year. This team has been floating around the Top 10 in all of the races this year, and you can't ask for much more out of a B-List driver than that. Kahne has a pretty solid track record here, paired with his momentum from Bristol and performance in Vegas puts the Red Bull ride on the roster this week.

JUAN PABLO MONTOYA (9 Starts Remaining) - The stats for this year aren't an indication on how well Montoya has been performing. Montoya rebounded from practice adversity and was moving through the field before getting run over by the Bayne Trayne late in the race. Montoya's 3rd place finish in Las Vegas also grabs my attention, along with his decent Loop Data from previous years here. This is a run it wide open and high line type of track that fits into JPM's style, so I'm placing the 42 on my roster this week.

MARCOS AMBROSE (9 Starts Remaining) - I admit this is another reach, and it goes with my waving the Ford banner proudly this week. Ambrose is my wild card in the 4th spot. Ambrose is coming off a very solid weekend in Bristol and his performance in Las Vegas was stout. Lets not forget RPM as a whole was pretty sporty here in Fontana last year as well. I'm a firm believer the Ford FR9 is going to be a big difference maker this weekend, so I am rolling the dice with Ambrose rounding out my B-List.

 Brian Vickers isn't getting the love he deserves, being, by far, the best ranked driver in the B-List in Loop Data. But for whatever reason Vickers is up-and-down this year. Check back with me later in the week as I might get convinced to put Vickers into the lineup and punt Ambrose or Montoya out. For right now Vickers, just barely, misses my lineup. Motor worries and a string of bad luck put Joey Logano off the team this week. RCR as a whole needs to get it turned around before I consider burning a Clint Bowyer start.

C-LIST:
DAVID RAGAN (8 Starts Remaining) - If I had unlimited Menard starts my life would be much easier. It's going to be about finding the weeks when the rest of the C-List can somewhat keep up with Menard. I believe California is one of those tracks. Ragan has surprisingly good Loop Data, far and away better than the rest of the C-List. He finally put together a decent finish in Bristol, and with his Ford power I'm placing Ragan on the roster.

TREVOR BAYNE (9 Starts Remaining) - I have to get some Bayne starts here before too long. We're 5 races into his 18 race schedule, so 13 more chances to get at least 4-5 starts out of him. This track is pretty easy on rookies, and his Nationwide record isn't too shabby here. A decent run in Las Vegas seals the deal for me coupled with, you guessed it, Ford FR9 power and Bayne gets start consideration from me.

Paul Menard's previous stats here aren't that impressive and although he will probably lead the C-List once again I feel this week Ragan or Bayne have a shot at being in his ballpark once they cross the finish line. Regan Smith could be a sleeper but I am not going to risk it here at California, and Bobby Labonte has finally earned my respect....for next week at Martinsville.