After a couple of devastating weeks due to wrecks and blown motors, we're hoping for an uneventful day in Las Vegas (uneventful and Las Vegas seems unlikely!)
Looking at the Loop Data, Las Vegas is a hard track to gauge performance on since it is somewhat unique with its progressive banking (and the cup series only visiting there once a year). So we will first compare the past 3 years at Las Vegas alone (all races with the COT):
AVERAGE FINISH:
A-List:
Kevin Harvick - 6th
Jeff Burton - 6th
Greg Biffle - 7th
Kyle Busch - 9th
Carl Edwards - 10th
B-List:
Dale Earnhardt Jr - 9th
Kasey Kahne - 9th
Joey Logano - 10th
Clint Bowyer - 13th
Marcos Ambrose - 17th
David Reuitmann - 18th
Mark Martin - 18th
Ryan Newman - 19th
C-List:
Travis Kvapil - 16th
Bobby Labonte - 20th
David Gilliland - 22nd
Casey Mears - 22nd
David Ragan - 24th
% of LAPS in TOP 15:
A-List:
Jeff Gordon - 95%
Carl Edwards - 93%
Greg Biffle - 90%
Kyle Busch - 85%
Kevin Harvick - 79%
B-List:
Jeff Burton - 79%
Dale Earnhardt Jr - 75%
Mark Martin - 75%
Joey Logano - 65%
Ryan Newman - 53%
Clint Bowyer - 45%
Kasey Kahne - 43%
David Reuitmann - 41%
C-List:
Bobby Labonte - 47%
Travis Kvapil - 19%
David Ragan - 17%
Paul Menard - 12%
Robby Gordon - 6%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Jeff Gordon -119
Greg Biffle - 112
Kyle Busch - 107
Kevin Harvick - 106
Carl Edwards - 106
B-List:
Jeff Burton - 103
Dale Earnhardt Jr - 96
Mark Martin - 94
Joey Logano -83
Kasey Kahne - 78
Ryan Newman - 75
Clint Bowyer - 71
Martin Truex Jr - 67
C-List:
Bobby Labonte - 74
Travis Kvapil - 62
David Ragan - 62
Casey Mears - 59
Paul Menard - 57
Expanding our search to the other track with progressive banking, let's include the last 3 seasons at Homestead-Miami Speedway combined with the last 3 years in Las Vegas:
AVERAGE FINISH:
A-List:
Jeff Gordon - 4th
Carl Edwards - 7th
Greg Biffle - 10th
Jimmie Johnson - 13th
Denny Hamlin - 13th
B-List:
Kasey Kahne - 9th
Clint Bowyer - 11th
Jeff Burton - 15th
Martin Truex Jr - 16th
Mark Martin - 16th
A.J. Allmendinger - 17th
Jamie McMurray - 18th
Ryan Newman - 18th
C-List:
Bill Elliott - 14th
Casey Mears - 21st
Travis Kvapil - 22nd
Bobby Labonte - 24th
David Gilliland - 25th
% of LAPS in TOP 15:
A-List:
Carl Edwards - 90%
Kevin Harvick - 87%
Kyle Busch - 82%
Jeff Gordon - 76%
Jimmie Johnson - 74%
B-List:
Mark Martin - 76%
Jeff Burton - 67%
Clint Bowyer - 55%
Jamie McMurray - 53%
Ryan Newman - 49%
Martin Truex Jr - 48%
Dale Earnhardt Jr - 48%
David Reuitmann - 46%
C-List:
David Ragan - 38%
Bobby Labonte - 24%
Casey Mears - 23%
Bill Elliot - 11%
David Gilliland - 10%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Carl Edwards -116
Kevin Harvick - 111
Jimmie Johnson - 104
Jeff Gordon - 102
Kyle Busch - 99
B-List:
Jeff Burton - 96
Mark Martin - 91
Martin Truex Jr - 84
Clint Bowyer - 81
Kasey Kahne - 80
Jamie McMurray - 78
Dale Earnhardt Jr - 77
Ryan Newman - 74
C-List:
David Ragan - 69
Bill Elliott - 67
Casey Mears - 65
Bobby Labonte - 59
Paul Menard - 55
So taking into account the loop data above, some of the other 1.5 mile tracks, momentum, and a few other wild card factors, this is the team we are rolling with going into Las Vegas:
A-LIST:
CARL EDWARDS (8 Starts Remaining) - Edwards name appears at the top of many of the Loop Data provided above, factor in his performance at the other 1.5 mile tracks and he gets the nod as one of our A-Listers for this week. Even though he had a bad finish, his car was (going to be) dominate at Phoenix, and Vegas is a typically Roush strong track.
JEFF GORDON (9 Starts Remaining) - The other name that appears on the top of the Loop Data is Jeff Gordon, and even though his 1.5 mile performance has been up and down, a whole new team/crew chief seem to have him back on the right track. I'm riding the momentum wave on the 24 who led 219 laps here last year.
Kyle Busch and Kurt Busch miss the cut. It's their hometown track, and I think Kurt Busch will far outperform his pretty dismal Loop Data numbers, but I can't get behind either driver as a race winner at this style of track. Jimmie Johnson and Greg Biffle are also choices to consider here, but I still rank their team mates above in front of them.
B-LIST:
JEFF BURTON (8 Starts Remaining) - Burton's is screaming downhill on a massive slide, most of it to no fault of his own, but the frustration has to be overwhelming. His numbers are great here, we need to gets some starts out of Burton, now, so I'll give him a shot here in my B-List since his numbers are pretty darn impressive.
KASEY KAHNE (8 Starts Remaining) - A mirror image of Jeff Gordon, but this time in he B-List. Kahne has decent numbers here, even better numbers if you consider the rest of the 1.5 mile tracks, and I plan on riding the Red Bull momentum until he proves me wrong.
JOEY LOGANO (8 Starts Remaining) - He's only got 2 starts here, but a 6th and a 13th have be hoping that he will be bounce back this week in a big way, factor in some Top 10s at the other 1.5 mile tracks and he gets a slot on the B-List for Vegas.
CLINT BOWYER (9 Starts Remaining) - I need to bounce back in points so I am rounding out my field with studs. I've saved Clint Bowyer the last 2 weeks, but not anymore. I still feel like I can get better value out of Clint at other tracks, so I will still be somewhat cautious when it comes to giving him the actual start, but he at least gets the consideration this week in the B.
Dale Earnhardt Jr and Mark Martin miss the list this week. I have Bowyer ever so slighty in front of Junior this week as I see Bowyer being motivated to have a good run to bounce back up in the standings. Martin's stats are great here but I have no confidence in the team. Heck Mark was out of his car, undressed, and giving handshakes to Jeff Gordon right as Gordon rolled into victory lane, not exactly the normal Mark Martin all about his team de-brief that I would of liked to see.
C-LIST:
DAVID RAGAN (9 Starts Remaining) - C-List is especially dismal this week, Regan Smith and Paul Menard are almost no where to be found in the Loop Data. With Roush being fairly strong here at Vegas, and my need to roll out a Ragan start, he'll get consideration this week in the C-List.
TREVOR BAYNE (9 Starts Remaining) - Talk about a reality check, wadding up 3 cars in Vegas will get the spotlight off Bayne and that's a good thing. Again Roush being strong here, Bayne's impressive performance at Texas last year, I'd love to use a Bayne start here....that is IF he goes to Vegas! The team did not have 2 new cars prepared to go to Vegas, they were going to take the Phoenix cars and...well...you saw how that ended up. Check back here for official word on Bayne's status for Las Vegas, if he's going, he's on the team.
If Bayne bails out on Vegas, I'll be looking at Paul Menard, even though his loop data is terrible his other 1.5 mile tracks make up for it a little bit, and the momentum of 2 decent weeks will carry him into the C-List if we are sans Bayne this week.
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