Wednesday, March 16, 2011

BRISTOL 1 - Lineup Posted

After a review of the data and discussion with the experts at Fantasy Nascar Preview we're going with the following 8 bullets in our Bristol gun:

A-LIST:
Kyle Busch (9 Starts Remaining) - It doesn't get any easier than this, Kyle Busch, by far, is the best driver in the A-List statistically and has won 3 of the last 4 in Bristol. A few people have pondered if this is the track Carl Edwards gets his revenge for the Phoenix wreck. It's nearly impossible to predict payback, and outside of Kyle/Carl getting into it in the Nationwide race Saturday, I wouldn't worry about payback.

Greg Biffle (9 Starts Remaining) - Biffle is a great start-save option who could also potentially nab you qualifying points. Minus a blown engine in 2009, Biffle ranks well up the A-List in the statistics category, and I think the week off will help squash the bad momentum from Las Vegas (that and the new gasman on the 16 team).


Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards just miss the lineup for me. A lot of people are riding the momentum of Stewart off of Las Vegas, but I think the week off really does derail any momentum gained. Factor that in with Stewart's up-and-down trends at Bristol and the 14 barely misses my lineup. Edwards I've already used twice this season, and I can easily see using the remaining 7 starts on larger tracks. Edwards is good here, but no need to waste a 99 start on a risky track.

B-LIST:
Ryan Newman (9 Starts Remaining) - Qualifying is always important here at Bristol, so who better to put in your lineup than the 39. Newman has a great season going, especially for a team who usually starts off slow. He's been consistent all year as well, which I really like. Add that onto his fairly impressive numbers for B-List drivers here at Bristol, and there is no doubt the 39 will get heavy consideration for a start here.

Mark Martin (9 Starts Remaining) - Can't think of a better track to use the "Start Mark Martin Early" theory. Martin has the 2nd best statistics overall behind Kyle Busch. Martin leads B-List drivers in % of Laps in the Top 15, which is telling that some of his poorer finishes were due to late race bad luck. Martin is also known for ripping off a good qualifying lap as well, so the 5 also gets consideration for his first start of the year.

David Reutimann (9 Starts Remaining) - I'm big on the 00 this week. His car was outstanding in both races here last year and this is the kind of track the Reutimann family grew up racing on. MWR is performing well as an organization and I will be looking at a great start-save potential in Rooootimann.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (9 Starts Remaining) - This pick kind of goes against my "no momentum carries through the off week" theory, but Junior is one of the more "streaky" drivers on the circuit. When he has some good finishes, he tends to carry that momentum through a few more races (and vice versa, when things go bad, they get worse for the 88). Statistically this is Juniors best track, so this pick is a "why not"/start-save option to round out my B-List. I have a lot of confidence in the other 3 B-Listers, so Junior is my wild card that might surprise me and get a start.


Clint Bowyer is due for a good run, and that good run could come here at Bristol, but I am still on ultra-conservative mode with the 33. RCR has a whole is off to a slow start, and I need 9 for-sure quality starts out of Bowyer. The 33 team is always good on the flat tracks and I think they will improve on the 1.5 mile tracks as the season plays on. I'm saving the 33 again this week.

I'm also off the Jeff Burton bandwagon as well. I've used 2 starts with Burton already and I don't believe I will get 9 starts out of this team this year, so I can afford to bench Burton for this week. This team may, finally, get it turned around here at Bristol, but I'm in a deep hole thanks to devastating Daytona and Phoenix finishes, and I can't afford another sub-par Burton run right now. Even if Burton does get it turned around here, this is another "streaky" driver and he will be a guy you can jump back on the bandwagon after he notches that first solid finish.

Marcos Ambrose and Juan Pablo Montoya are popping up as deeper sleepers on a few lineups. Hard to argue these guys have momentum and can lay down good qualifying performances, but to me there are better/more solid options in the B-List this week.

C-LIST:
Paul Menard (9 Starts Remaining) - I would love to save my Menard starts for the 1.5 mile tracks, but this team is red hot, and his stats here at Bristol are better than the other C-List drivers (but not by much). I can't save the 27 any longer, he at least gets on the roster this week.

David Ragan (8 Starts Remaining) - This spot could be a toss up between David Ragan and Bobby Labonte. Neither driver is all that impressive here, and this would be a good track to sneak a Labonte start-save at. But even in decent equipment Labonte's stats rank behind Ragan. Add in Ragan's Nationwide win in 2009, and the fact that I want to burn Ragan starts as fast as I can, I'm giving my 2nd C-List spot to the UPS ride.

I'm staying away from Regan Smith and Trevor Bayne here. This is a terrible track for Regan statistically, and this team is stepping up their program across the board so I think you can easily get better value out of the 78 elsewhere on the schedule. This track is also notoriously tough on rookies, so Bayne is on the bench. Even in a recent interview on SPEED.com Bayne admits he has no idea what he's going to do going into Bristol, and that he's just going to try to survive.


As always, check back on Saturday after the practices and qualifying sessions are complete for our practice breakdown and our final starting lineup. And don't miss the live chat with the experts at Fantasy Nascar Preview on Sunday morning, followed by our own live chat that takes you all the way up to the green flag.

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