Bottom line, throw away the practice charts. The numbers are so skewed that it is almost impossible to get useful data due to so many different agendas. Plus take a look at the last time they raced here at Bristol:
Kyle Busch, Winner of Race, 20th in Final Practice
David Reutimann, 2nd in Race, 17th in Practice
Jamie McMurray, 3rd, 7th in Practice
Clint Bowyer, 4th, 12th in Practice
Kasey Kahne, 5th, 36th in Practice
I am doing this breakdown a little early, so check back here for potential updates, and also check www.FantasyNascarPreview.com Forum for continuous updates.
With practice being all but useless, we're looking at the following factors for our starting lineup:
1st - Overall Driver Attitude/Feel - Crew Chief Notes and Driver Comments will be released tonight and tomorrow. Most drivers aren't happy, some are miserable, but some drivers are surprisingly satisfied. You definitely don't want to be "lost" on the setup here, because you can go a lap down, quick.
2nd - Loop Data - This tire compound is the same they used in 2010, so last years performance will be key to look at. Still we will factor in the last few years of previous performance to get an overall view of who's been strong here.
3rd - Starting Position / Pit Selection - This track favors a good starting position and a tight pit road means a good pit stall will also keep you out of trouble when it comes to getting on/off the pit lane.
For reference, let's take a look at the Pit Selections for the race:
And we'll take a look at who we have available for our team this week, and their starting position:
Greg Biffle (2nd), Kyle Busch (12th)
Mark Martin (5th), Ryan Newman (21st), Dale Earnhardt Jr (22nd), David Reutimann (26th)
Paul Menard (4th), David Ragan (5th)
A-LIST:
Kyle Busch (9 Starts Remaining) - I'd like to thank Biffle for the qualifying points, but I will be rolling with the Bristol stud and having Rowdy on my starting lineup. Like him or not, this kid can wheel a race car around this track. He was dominate on this tire compound here last year. Busch has a good pit stall, 4th on the front stretch with an easy out with the 36 in Pit Stall 3. I'd start Kyle over any other A-List option here this week.
For the record, I am not worried about a potential engine failure or a retaliation from Edwards. Engine failures here are fairly rare, under 5% and Edwards was even asked point blank during the ESPN Nationwide pre-race about a retaliation and reiterated that the issue from Phoenix is over (both men were seen talking/joking on pit road during Friday practice as well).
Carl Edwards ranks 2nd on my A-Listers, this team is red hot and he's starting on pole and has one of the best pit stalls available. There is no reason this car shouldn't be Top 5 at the end of the day. Denny Hamlin also found the handle on his ride late in the practice session. If you have the choice between Hamlin/Edwards, I'd actually start Hamlin and save Edwards for the 1.5 mile tracks as I think Hamlin should also be right around the Top 5. Hamlin got a great pit selection in between the 92 and 60 who will be non-factors.
Jimmie Johnson is not a bad start option here. This race is going to come down to engineers and crew chiefs getting it right from the start of the race, and there is no better team than the 48 when it comes to this style of race. Johnson has a good starting position and good pit stall. Johnson was strong here last year on this tire combination (before getting caught up in a wreck), you can start the 48 with confidence.
Greg Biffle's flat tire in practice did not allow this team to get a good handle on what they needed (they struggled before the flat). Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth, and Tony Stewart were all not satisfied with their cars on the new tire as well. Kurt Busch has done nothing to impress this weekend either, and with a bad starting position you can get more value out of other A-List options.
B-LIST:
Mark Martin (9 Starts Remaining) - Mark Martin was very happy with his car on the new compound tire, which was rare when looking up and down pit road after the final session. Martin has a great track record here, and has decent starting position. I look for Martin to run inside or around the Top 10 all day, my only fear is that he doesn't close the deal, but he has the most potential out of any B-Lister I see so he has to get a start here.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. * (9 Starts Remaining) - I am putting the * asterik next to Earnhardt Jr because I am not 100% sold on this decision yet, but for the purpose of this blog, my lineup right now has the 88 in there. Junior is pretty happy with his car (which is rare) and has a great track record here. He's come from deep in the field here before so his 22nd starting position does not worry me as much as it should. He also has a great pit selection between the 66 and the 37 who should be non-factors.
I really need to hear from David Reutimann and his team on how his car is handling before I make my final decision. Reutimann was really strong here last year on this tire compound, but he starts the deepest of any of my B-List drivers, and is wedged between the 22 and 83 on pit road. The risk with Reutimann is if he is not dead on the setup early, he could go a lap down.
I have Junior and Ryan Newman basically tied for the 2nd/3rd best car on the B-List (not considering ranking Reutimann just yet). Newman is also happy on the new compound tires, the only factor I am thinking about is using all 9 of Newman's starts this year, no way you use 9 Earnhardt Jr starts. So this would be a good place to save Newman if he's on-par with Junior.
Martin Truex Jr. is another surprise who seems to be satisfied with his race car going into the event and he's got good starting position. Truex previous record here isn't all that impressive however. Kasey Kahne has been a bit of a surprise this weekend and could be Top 10 potential by the end of the day, riding the momentum of a good Nationwide finish. Marcos Ambrose has been decent, but not spectacular, he ranks right behind Kahne for me on the rankings.
Jeff Burton looks decent in practice, but we've seen that almost everywhere this year so I am just not sold on the 31. Again, this would be an excellent track for the 31 to get things turned around, but Bowyer and Harvick are struggle and Menard is running decent, RCR as a whole is just too up-and-down for me to risk another Burton start. Clint Bowyer is not happy with his ride and starts deep in the field, I'd save him for a better day. Juan Pablo Montoya is another driver who hasn't had much luck finding the handle on his car. I think he'll improve during the race but I would not risk starting the 42 with his poor pit stall and 36th starting position.
C-LIST:
Paul Menard (9 Starts Remaining) - I really wanted to get a start out of Ragan here, but after practice I just can not ignore the 27 any longer. Menard is happy with his setup on the new tires, great starting position and has all the confidence in the world in his team. Somehow he seems to still be riding a momentum high and I'm jumping on the bandwagon this week.
Regan Smith has been the driver who has outperformed all expectations this week. Regan himself even admitted this is one of his worst tracks, but he's a solid start option if you have him available. I'd start Regan over Menard if you have the option and save Menard for 1.5 tracks.
David Ragan ranks in 3rd due to good starting position and a decent race car, but not as good as Menard or Smith. Ragan has not been able to close the deal all year long and we'll see if he can finally get some confidence built up here at Bristol.
I'd rank Bobby Labonte just ahead of Trevor Bayne. This track is so tough on rookies and Bayne had another rough day in the Nationwide series. Meanwhile Labonte seems average but solid with his car this weekend, and could eek out a Top 20 finish.
As always, check www.FantasyNascarPreview.com Forum for up-to-date information, and their expert Live Chat at 11 AM EST, immediatly followed by our live chat at Noon EST (check yahoo message board for link).
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