We've got a week off for NSCS, but this gives us plenty of time to look at the loop data going into Bristol:
Let's first take a look at the last 4 years (8 races) at Bristol, as always, this takes into account all the COT races:
AVERAGE FINISH:
A-List:
Ky. Busch - 5th
Edwards - 10th
Biffle - 11th
Gordon - 11th
B-List:
Earnhardt Jr. - 10th
Bowyer - 12th
Burton - 14th
Newman - 15th
Keselowski - 17th
Martin - 17th
Ambrose - 18th
Kahne - 18th
C-List:
Menard - 23rd
Kvapil - 23rd
Ragan - 25th
Labonte - 26th
% of LAPS in TOP 15:
A-List:
Biffle - 81%
Gordon - 78%
Ky. Busch - 76%
Edwards - 74%
B-List:
Martin - 72%
Newman - 67%
Bowyer - 67%
Burton - 63%
Ambrose - 62%
Montoya - 56%
Reutimann - 55%
Earnhardt Jr. - 53%
C-List:
Elliott - 22%
Menard - 20%
Smith - 15%
Labonte - 14%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Ky. Busch - 117.7
Edwards - 97.2
Biffle - 96.9
Ku. Busch - 96.1
B-List:
Martin - 100.1
Bowyer - 91.1
Newman - 90.4
Kahne - 88.1
Ambrose - 86.9
Reutimann - 86.7
Burton - 86.3
Earnhardt Jr. - 85.1
C-List:
Menard - 61.6
Elliott - 60.4
Ragan - 59.3
Smith - 55.5
When you look at stats from a track like Bristol, you have to pay close attention to the results, as often guys with good race cars got a DNF for something out of their control.
Fall 2010:
Johnson - 35th (Crash)
Hamlin - 34th (Crash Damage)
Although Johnson is improving at Bristol, and had a good car in the last race here, I still would not use a Johnson start here given the "wild card" factor.
Spring 2010:
Bowyer - 40th (Engine)
Reutimann - 38th (Engine)
Both of these drivers had strong machines, running inside the Top 5 and Top 10 before their failures.
Fall 2009:
Harvick - 38th (Crash)
Logano - 34th
Harvick crashed out of the 2009 race but was only running fair, there are better options in the A-List. Add Fall of 09 to Logano's multiple bad finishes here, most of them were out of his control with crash damage or engine failures, Logano runs much better than his numbers show, but I don't feel like he's a starter this week.
Spring 2009:
Biffle - 39th (Engine)
Logano - 38th (Engine)
Biffle lost an engine on Lap 326 here in 2009, skewing what are pretty impressive stats for Biffle who was running well in this race before the failure.
Fall 2008:
Burton - 42nd (Crash)
Kahne - 40th (Crash)
Both of these guys were running around the Top 10 when a major crash took out a good chunk of the field, both of these guys got the worst of the crash and finished way down in the order.
Spring 2008:
No one of note had a poor day, surprisingly clean race.
So who should you be narrowing your list down to, our opinion mixed in with other expert opinions and current momentum:
A-LIST:
Kyle Busch - LOCK
Greg Biffle
Carl Edwards
Kurt Busch
Tony Stewart
Kyle Busch is the only A-List driver who I consider an absolute lock for your Bristol team. His overall driver ranking tells the tale, I don't think you'll see another track where 1 A-List driver is 20 points ahead of the 2nd place A-Lister. Kyle has led 5x as many laps as his next closest competitor and has an average finish of 5th.
Early thoughts have me leaning Greg Biffle as the man to pair with Kyle. Even though his team had a devastating week, his numbers are impressive here and I think the momentum of Roush as a whole will carry this team to another solid run. Some argue you need Carl Edwards here riding his hot streak and his "Concrete Carl" results in the past, but all streaks come to an end, and simple wild card Bristol could derail the streak. I feel you can get better/more consistent value out of him on the larger tracks.
If you want to start save and don't want to use Biffle after a bad run in Vegas, Kurt Busch could be your man this week. Somewhat quietly this team is putting up consistent finishes week after week. Kurt has slow momentum building, but momentum none-the-less. Tony Stewart is on a lot of people's short list as well because of a stellar run at Vegas, but his numbers here are all over the place. 500+ laps led, but also 55% of the time in the Top 15. Stewart is a risk play as he could be really good or really bad at Bristol.
B-LIST:
Ryan Newman - LOCK
David Reutimann
Mark Martin
Clint Bowyer
Dale Earnhadt Jr.
Marcos Ambrose
Jeff Burton
Ryan Newman is my lock on the B-List. This team is on a decent roll and his stats here rank in the upper levels of the B-List drivers in all categories. Coupled with the fact that qualifying and pit selection is important here I am placing Newman on my Bristol team without question.
Same line of thinking has my interest peaked on Mark Martin, his average start here is better than anyone else with a 7th place average, 2nd of all drivers in overall Driving Rating as well (only driver above a 100 rating with Kyle Busch). I'm not big on Hendrick right now as a whole so current momentum has me a touch worried on Martin, but he's close to a lock for the 2nd spot on my B-List.
I'm also high on David Reutimann, he has had a Top 5 car here in both races in 2010, but blew a motor in the spring race dropping his numbers way down. In the fall race last year Reutimann didn't even practice his car due to illness, strapped in for qualifying and the race and did exceptionally well. MWR is performing well as an organization as well.
To me, things get a little more difficult around the 4th spot on the B-List. Clint Bowyer is a good safety pick, he's 2nd in overall driver rating even with the blown engine in the Spring 2010 event. I continue to hold back on my Bowyer starts, and with RCR off to a somewhat slow start I may continue to wait for things to heat up before I roll out a Bowyer start.
Many people are riding the momentum of Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Marcos Ambrose. Junior is the safer start here, this is his 2nd-best track statistically, so if you're going to use the 88 on more than the plate tracks, this would be the time use him. Ambrose was pretty sporty on the short tracks as whole last year, especially in qualifying, plus his current momentum have some people reaching for wild car value with Taz.
Personally I am staying away from Jeff Burton. It depends on how you've used your Burton starts already. I don't think he's a 9 start driver anymore, and if you've already used up some starts with the 31 (I've used him 2 times already) then it's a good time to let him sit and get his team turned around. If you haven't used a Burton start yet, he could make your team with his previous track record here being fairly decent, if he's going to get this team turned around, Bristol has a higher probability of being that track compared to the other races coming up.
C-List:
Paul Menard
David Ragan
Bobby Labonte
Regan Smith
Trevor Bayne
No one in the C-List really sticks out from the crowd, so I am going safety picks here. Although I would like to save Paul Menard for 1.5 mile tracks, he's the stastical best driver available here at Bristol, and with his momentum you can roll a Menard start out here with confidence. With Trevor Bayne looking like a solid option on 1.5 tracks as well, you can get value out of Menard here and still have a solid 1.5 team down the road.
David Ragan gets consideration purely because we need to continue to burn starts with him. He does have a Nationwide win here in 2009 and if I see a good qualifying run and decent practice numbers I will consider getting another Ragan start out of the way.
Bobby Labonte could be a potential start-saver, but I doubt it. His numbers here are really not that impressive, even when he had decent quality equipment under him. He's got experience and a 47 team that was good with Ambrose behind the wheel, and that's about it.
You can definitely get better value out of Regan Smith elsewhere, his numbers here are just about as bad as your going to find on Regan. Bristol is also notorious for chewing up rookies, so I am staying away from Trevor Bayne and using him on larger tracks.
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