After a week off we're facing one of the toughest, if not, THE toughest week of picks we've had all year long. Teams "locked in" to the chase are looking for wins, and teams outside of the Top 10 are win-hungry to try to get into the chase. We do get to see 2 practices on Friday, however with the unique qualifying time making going out EARLY the advantage, you'll potentially see sandbagging in the practice sessions. Finally, throw in a ton of crew chief changes to some notable names and you've got a difficult week of picks.
Just to put you up to speed, Juan Pablo Montoya, A.J. Allmendinger and Jeff Burton all went through crew chief swaps after Loudon. Add in Greg Biffle who only has 1 race under his belt with his new crew chief.
First we'll take a look at the last 2 years at the Brickyard:
AVERAGE FINISH:
A-LIST:
Biffle - 4th
Harvick - 4th
Stewart - 4th
Edwards - 11th
B-LIST:
Vickers - 5th (2009 only)
Martin - 7th
Kahne - 10th
McMurray - 11th
Bowyer - 11th
Logano - 11th
Burton - 16th
Newman - 16th
C-LIST:
Menard - 22nd
Ragan - 22nd
Labonte - 27th
Smith - 36th
% of LAPS INSIDE TOP 15:
A-LIST:
Biffle - 99%
Stewart - 85%
Harvick - 79%
Gordon - 76%
B-LIST:
Vickers - 100% (2009 only)
Martin - 99%
Kahne - 92%
Montoya - 91%
Bowyer - 89%
McMurray - 50%
Reutimann - 50%
Earnhardt Jr. - 49%
C-LIST:
Menard - 15%
Ragan - 9%
Smith - 0.9%
Labonte - 0.3%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-LIST:
Biffle - 120
Stewart - 105
Harvick - 102
Johnson - 101
B-LIST:
Montoya - 125
Martin - 118
Vickers - 114 (2009 only)
Bowyer - 97
Kahne - 93
McMurray - 92
Burton - 83
Logano - 79
C-LIST:
Ragan - 65
Menard - 59
Labonte - 44
Smith - 43
Next, let's take a look at the last 2 years of Indy AND Pocono (2011, both 2010 and both 2009 races) combined:
AVERAGE FINISH:
A-LIST:
Stewart - 6th
Harvick - 8th
Johnson - 9th
Gordon - 12th
B-LIST:
Bowyer - 11th
Montoya - 12th
Newman - 12th
Martin - 13th
Burton - 14th
Kahne - 14th
Vickers - 14th
Reutimann - 16th
C-LIST:
Menard - 20th
Ragan - 21st
Smith - 27th
Labonte - 30th
% of LAPS INSIDE TOP 15:
A-LIST:
Gordon - 86%
Biffle - 84%
Johnson - 81%
Stewart - 76%
B-LIST:
Kahne - 82%
Montoya - 77%
Martin - 73%
Vickers - 68%
Bowyer - 64%
Burton - 58%
Newman - 57%
Earnhardt Jr. - 48%
C-LIST:
Menard - 14%
Ragan - 13%
Smith - 7%
Labonte - 1%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-LIST:
Johnson - 111
Gordon - 103
Biffle - 100
Hamlin - 100
B-LIST:
Montoya - 104
Martin - 95
Kahne - 94
Bowyer - 92
Vickers - 88
Burton - 88
Newman - 84
Reutimann - 77
C-LIST:
Ragan - 64
Menard - 60
Smith - 55
Labonte - 45
Finally, we'll focus on 2011 Pocono results and to a small extent momentum from the previous races. Keeping in mind we could change our teams after the Friday practices (which could be a mess), here is who we are watching going into practice:
A-LIST:
Tony Stewart always gives it a little extra when he comes to the Brickyard, and his previous track record here shows promising results. However his 2011 Pocono performance was lackluster, running around 15th-20th all day.
Although the last 2 years at the Brickyard have not been kind to Jeff Gordon, you can't deny his performance this year. A win at Pocono and an excellent car at New Hampshire makes Gordon a definite one to watch on Friday.
Two drivers who could surprise this weekend are Kevin Harvick and Greg Biffle. Harvick is pretty solid at Indy and Pocono over the last few years, and Harvick did click off another Top 5 at Pocono this past June. Biffle has been lights out the last 2 years at the Brickyard, but he was junk at Pocono this year and with his new crew chief it makes The Biff a high risk choice this week. Kurt Busch hasn't had much to brag about at Indy, but was 2nd best car behind Gordon at Pocono earlier this year.
Jimmie Johnson will be another interesting pick to watch. This team is all over the map on performance, and they've been hit/miss at the Brickyard to boot. I will need to see some promise from 5-time on Friday for him to make the team.
B-LIST:
Juan Pablo Montoya has absolutely killed it the last 2 years at the Brickyard, and has been bitten by bad luck both times. Montoya was by far the best car of the B-Listers at Pocono earlier this year, which is enough to make Montoya my only lock to make my team regardless of Friday performance and crew chief changes.
Kasey Kahne has been solid at the Brickyard and Pocono and was a solid Top 15 to Top 10 car at Pocono earlier this year. Mark Martin has great numbers here but as always he is a high risk pick as the team can't seem to make the performance translate to the race this year. Clint Bowyer has always been great at Pocono and Indy, but this team is in a serious funk. Loudon is always a strong track for Bowyer and he was an "also ran" all day. The week off may have helped this team, but I'm going to need to see results in practice before I slot him into my Brickyard team.
I really like A.J. Allmendinger as a potential sleeper this week. With Greg Erwin on board this team could really come to life. Joey Logano is riding a good wave of momentum, had decent performance at Pocono and could be another sleeper this week that won't make many other rosters.
C-LIST:
Paul Menard looks to be the solid option this week in the C-List. He has had success here previously and was the best car at Pocono earlier this year. David Ragan could end up being the best C-Lister, but I'm still saving him for the 1.5 mile tracks where he is far and away better than the field.
Trevor Bayne should be one to watch. Bill Elliott has had a lot of success in the Wood Brothers ride here in previous years, and could be a start save option. Regan Smith is a safe backup to Menard, Smith ran in lock-step with Menard at Pocono, and could squeeze a Top 20 out at Indy.
Check back on Friday night for our lockdown team!
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Saturday, July 16, 2011
LOUDON 1 - Lockdown
After 3 practices and qualifying, let's take a look at the breakdown:
We're not putting any stock in P1, since that was mostly qualifying runs and its so hard to get relevant race data from the session, instead, let's look at P2 and P3 from Saturday, which were purely race runs:
P2 10-Lap Averages:
P3 10-Lap Averages:
We're putting more emphasis on the P3 10-lap averages, as they were much closer to what race conditions will be. Even the drivers commented that the track "totally changed" from P2 to P3.
A-LIST:
Jimmie Johnson starts deep in the field, but if there is any team I have confidence to find their way to the front, it's Knaus and 5-time. Johnson was consistent over his runs in P3 and was lighting fast on a short run as well. The deep starting position and strength already at the top of the field, I'm not sure Johnson can grab the win, but he's my best option in the A this week.
Team mate Jeff Gordon ran a ton of laps in final practice and was happy with the balance of his car. With good starting position and Gordon's performance on the flat's this year, its hard to imagine he won't be the man to beat tomorrow. Many in the garage were talking about Tony Stewart and his impressive track record here, he starts up front but his practice numbers, especially in P3 where his numbers were only mid pack.
Kyle Busch has been all over the map this weekend, it's hard to say exactly where he will end up on Sunday, he'll find my bench this weekend. In the final 30 minutes of P3 Kyle and the team tried something different and dropped like a rock in the charts, this shows me this team was making big swings and searching hard and still don't have the setup nailed down yet. Team mate Denny Hamlin looks much more consistent, and should be good for a Top 10.
B-LIST:
You have to lock in Ryan Newman. Starting on the pole, a great flat track racer, and his practice numbers were solid. Next!
Clint Bowyer has been on a terrible slide over the past few weeks, but if he's going to rebound, Loudon is the place to do it. He has a decent starting position and his practice speeds were decent, although slightly disappointing in P3. I'm ranking Bowyer barely ahead of Kasey Kahne, very similar story with Kahne, decent starting position and decent practice numbers. Both of these guys should be all over each other all race long right around the Top 10.
Jeff Burton has been very impressive on the speed charts all weekend long, and a 6th place starting position also bodes well for Burton. Of course the problem is the momentum hasn't been there all year long for the 31 team, and even Jeff gave a frustrating interview on Friday saying they haven't got what they deserved all year long.
Sleeper picks this week include the Toyota's of Joey Logano and David Reutimann. Reuty is riding a great wave of momentum and he's starting 3rd, I don't see much more than a Top 15 out of the 00 though. Logano on the other hand starts 16th but has found a great balance on the car and looks very impressive on the speed charts, outside chance he could land a Top 10. Our sleeper pick coming in of A.J. Allmendinger has been flat all weekend, and I'd be surprised if he ends up cracking the Top 15.
C-LIST:
David Ragan, and Roush Fenway as a whole has been a huge disappointment this weekend. Ragan is a must bench as he has much better value on the intermediate tracks. Paul Menard doesn't look much better than a Top 20 so he should also be saved for the intermediates.
Bobby Labonte has looked very impressive all weekend, and could crack the Top 20 which would be outstanding. Regan Smith has a little better starting position and I think the 78 and 47 should be right on top of each other all race long, I'm going to flip a coin and say Smith will be just a touch better than Labonte.
FNG Team:
Start:
48 (7)
39 (6)
33 (6)
78 (5)
Bench:
18 (7)
4 (6)
43 (7)
6 (3)
We're not putting any stock in P1, since that was mostly qualifying runs and its so hard to get relevant race data from the session, instead, let's look at P2 and P3 from Saturday, which were purely race runs:
P2 10-Lap Averages:
| Best 10 Consecutive Lap Average | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Car# | Driver | From Lap | To Lap | Avg Speed | Overall Rank | ||
| 1 | 33 | Clint Bowyer | 2 | 11 | 128.421 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 14 | Tony Stewart | 2 | 11 | 128.287 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 31 | Jeff Burton | 2 | 11 | 128.239 | 7 | ||
| 4 | 24 | Jeff Gordon | 1 | 10 | 128.079 | 4 | ||
| 5 | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 2 | 11 | 128.052 | 6 | ||
| 6 | 20 | Joey Logano | 2 | 11 | 127.969 | 13 | ||
| 7 | 27 | Paul Menard | 20 | 29 | 127.881 | 8 | ||
| 8 | 48 | Jimmie Johnson | 25 | 34 | 127.836 | 9 | ||
| 9 | 22 | Kurt Busch | 25 | 34 | 127.752 | 20 | ||
| 10 | 39 | Ryan Newman | 29 | 38 | 127.709 | 14 | ||
| 11 | 18 | Kyle Busch | 2 | 11 | 127.684 | 12 | ||
| 12 | 2 | Brad Keselowski | 1 | 10 | 127.681 | 3 | ||
| 13 | 83 | Brian Vickers | 4 | 13 | 127.671 | 23 | ||
| 14 | 78 | Regan Smith | 2 | 11 | 127.568 | 29 | ||
| 15 | 56 | Martin Truex Jr. | 25 | 34 | 127.559 | 5 | ||
| 16 | 00 | David Reutimann | 1 | 10 | 127.463 | 22 | ||
| 17 | 88 | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 32 | 41 | 127.262 | 16 | ||
| 18 | 43 | A J Allmendinger | 13 | 22 | 127.227 | 27 | ||
| 19 | 17 | Matt Kenseth | 1 | 10 | 127.101 | 28 | ||
| 20 | 5 | Mark Martin | 28 | 37 | 127.011 | 25 | ||
| 21 | 46 | Erik Darnell(i) | 2 | 11 | 124.982 | 36 | ||
P3 10-Lap Averages:
| Best 10 Consecutive Lap Average | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Car# | Driver | From Lap | To Lap | Avg Speed | Overall Rank | ||
| 1 | 48 | Jimmie Johnson | 40 | 49 | 128.755 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 31 | Jeff Burton | 1 | 10 | 128.669 | 4 | ||
| 3 | 20 | Joey Logano | 1 | 10 | 128.463 | 6 | ||
| 4 | 24 | Jeff Gordon | 1 | 10 | 128.094 | 13 | ||
| 5 | 42 | Juan Pablo Montoya | 1 | 10 | 128.042 | 2 | ||
| 6 | 56 | Martin Truex Jr. | 1 | 10 | 127.969 | 8 | ||
| 7 | 2 | Brad Keselowski | 1 | 10 | 127.966 | 5 | ||
| 8 | 5 | Mark Martin | 33 | 42 | 127.862 | 17 | ||
| 9 | 22 | Kurt Busch | 20 | 29 | 127.804 | 10 | ||
| 10 | 39 | Ryan Newman | 41 | 50 | 127.748 | 3 | ||
| 11 | 9 | Marcos Ambrose | 32 | 41 | 127.731 | 16 | ||
| 12 | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 34 | 43 | 127.719 | 9 | ||
| 13 | 14 | Tony Stewart | 4 | 13 | 127.707 | 21 | ||
| 14 | 33 | Clint Bowyer | 1 | 10 | 127.615 | 23 | ||
| 15 | 27 | Paul Menard | 1 | 10 | 127.582 | 18 | ||
| 16 | 43 | A J Allmendinger | 33 | 42 | 127.532 | 12 | ||
| 17 | 29 | Kevin Harvick | 8 | 17 | 127.524 | 11 | ||
| 18 | 1 | Jamie McMurray | 31 | 40 | 127.513 | 14 | ||
| 19 | 47 | Bobby Labonte | 2 | 11 | 127.305 | 32 | ||
| 20 | 51 | Landon Cassill(i) | 1 | 10 | 127.082 | 33 | ||
| 21 | 38 | J J Yeley | 1 | 10 | 126.917 | 27 | ||
| 22 | 6 | David Ragan | 3 | 12 | 126.883 | 25 | ||
| 23 | 71 | Andy Lally # | 28 | 37 | 126.216 | 41 | ||
| 24 | 34 | David Gilliland | 15 | 24 | 125.715 | 34 | ||
We're putting more emphasis on the P3 10-lap averages, as they were much closer to what race conditions will be. Even the drivers commented that the track "totally changed" from P2 to P3.
A-LIST:
Jimmie Johnson starts deep in the field, but if there is any team I have confidence to find their way to the front, it's Knaus and 5-time. Johnson was consistent over his runs in P3 and was lighting fast on a short run as well. The deep starting position and strength already at the top of the field, I'm not sure Johnson can grab the win, but he's my best option in the A this week.
Team mate Jeff Gordon ran a ton of laps in final practice and was happy with the balance of his car. With good starting position and Gordon's performance on the flat's this year, its hard to imagine he won't be the man to beat tomorrow. Many in the garage were talking about Tony Stewart and his impressive track record here, he starts up front but his practice numbers, especially in P3 where his numbers were only mid pack.
Kyle Busch has been all over the map this weekend, it's hard to say exactly where he will end up on Sunday, he'll find my bench this weekend. In the final 30 minutes of P3 Kyle and the team tried something different and dropped like a rock in the charts, this shows me this team was making big swings and searching hard and still don't have the setup nailed down yet. Team mate Denny Hamlin looks much more consistent, and should be good for a Top 10.
B-LIST:
You have to lock in Ryan Newman. Starting on the pole, a great flat track racer, and his practice numbers were solid. Next!
Clint Bowyer has been on a terrible slide over the past few weeks, but if he's going to rebound, Loudon is the place to do it. He has a decent starting position and his practice speeds were decent, although slightly disappointing in P3. I'm ranking Bowyer barely ahead of Kasey Kahne, very similar story with Kahne, decent starting position and decent practice numbers. Both of these guys should be all over each other all race long right around the Top 10.
Jeff Burton has been very impressive on the speed charts all weekend long, and a 6th place starting position also bodes well for Burton. Of course the problem is the momentum hasn't been there all year long for the 31 team, and even Jeff gave a frustrating interview on Friday saying they haven't got what they deserved all year long.
Sleeper picks this week include the Toyota's of Joey Logano and David Reutimann. Reuty is riding a great wave of momentum and he's starting 3rd, I don't see much more than a Top 15 out of the 00 though. Logano on the other hand starts 16th but has found a great balance on the car and looks very impressive on the speed charts, outside chance he could land a Top 10. Our sleeper pick coming in of A.J. Allmendinger has been flat all weekend, and I'd be surprised if he ends up cracking the Top 15.
C-LIST:
David Ragan, and Roush Fenway as a whole has been a huge disappointment this weekend. Ragan is a must bench as he has much better value on the intermediate tracks. Paul Menard doesn't look much better than a Top 20 so he should also be saved for the intermediates.
Bobby Labonte has looked very impressive all weekend, and could crack the Top 20 which would be outstanding. Regan Smith has a little better starting position and I think the 78 and 47 should be right on top of each other all race long, I'm going to flip a coin and say Smith will be just a touch better than Labonte.
FNG Team:
Start:
48 (7)
39 (6)
33 (6)
78 (5)
Bench:
18 (7)
4 (6)
43 (7)
6 (3)
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
LOUDON 1 - Loop Data & Lockdown
Well I've had a free pass the last 2 races with the crapshoot at Daytona and the new track at Kentucky. We're back to "normal" this week, as we look at the Loop Data, preview, and lockdown our team since we do not get to see any practices before lockdown this week.
Coming off a strong 310 point performance in Kentucky, FNG is up to the 93% overall and we look to continue that streak. We'll look at 2 sets of data, first lets take a look at the last 2 years (4 races) at Loudon:
AVERAGE FINISH:
A-LIST:
Ku. Busch - 6th
Gordon - 7th
Hamlin - 8th
Ky. Busch - 8th
B-LIST:
Reutimann - 10th
Bowyer - 10th
Newman - 13th
Earnhardt Jr - 15th
Martin - 16th
Montoya - 16th
Logano - 17th
Keselowski - 17th
C-LIST:
Smith - 26th
Labonte - 28th
Ragan - 28th
Menard - 30th
% of LAPS INSIDE TOP 15:
A-LIST:
Ku. Busch - 95%
Gordon - 90%
Johnson - 89%
Stewart - 84%
B-LIST:
Montoya - 87%
Bowyer - 80%
Reutimann - 78%
Earnhardt Jr - 77%
Newman - 72%
Burton - 66%
Martin - 62%
Kahne - 49%
C-LIST:
Labonte - 8%
Ragan - 7%
Menard - 5%
Smith - 0.9%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-LIST:
Johnson - 114
Ku. Busch - 112
Stewart - 107
Gordon - 107
B-LIST:
Bowyer - 104
Montoya - 103
Earnhardt Jr - 92
Reutimann - 91
Burton - 91
Martin - 89
Kahne - 88
Newman - 87
C-LIST:
Ragan - 55
Menard - 51
Labonte - 51
Smith - 50
Next, let's take a look at the flat tracks from 2010 and the ones from 2011 so far. 2010 Loudon x2, 2010 Richmond x2 and 2011 spring race, 2010 Phoenix x2 and 2011 spring race, and 2010 Martinsville x2 and 2011 spring race:
AVERAGE FINISH:
A-LIST:
Ky. Busch - 7th
Johnson - 8th
Hamlin - 9th
Harvick - 9th
B-LIST:
Newman - 10th
Logano - 13th
Bowyer - 13th
Earnhardt Jr - 14th
Martin - 15th
Allmendinger - 15th
Burton - 17th
Montoya - 17th
C-LIST:
Ragan - 19th
Menard - 26th
Smith - 27th
Labonte - 30th
% of LAPS INSIDE TOP 15:
A-LIST:
Ky. Busch - 90%
Johnson - 86%
Gordon - 79%
Stewart - 84%
B-LIST:
Newman - 81%
Bowyer - 77%
Montoya - 66%
Burton - 66%
Allmendinger - 62%
Logano - 49%
Reutimann - 49%
Martin - 48%
C-LIST:
Menard - 18%
Ragan - 16%
Smith - 12%
Labonte - 3%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-LIST:
Ky. Busch - 116
Hamlin - 109
Johnson - 108
Gordon - 107
B-LIST:
Bowyer - 101
Newman - 97
Burton - 94
Montoya - 89
Allmendinger - 86
Logano - 83
Martin - 83
Earnhardt Jr - 82
C-LIST:
Ragan - 66
Menard - 63
Smith - 57
Labonte - 50
Now that we have our baseline, we'll focus a little more on 2011 performances at the flat tracks so far (Phoenix, Richmond, Martinsville). All 3 of those races were 3 months ago or more, so its also import to factor in recent momentum over the past few races to lockdown with the following drivers:
A-LIST:
Kyle Busch (7 Starts Remaining) - There is just no denying the 18 this week. JGR has always had a fantastic flat track/brake program and it shows when you look at the loop data above. 2011 he won at Richmond, 3rd at Martinsville, 2nd at Phoenix. Loudon is probably the weakest of all the flat tracks for Kyle, but not by much. Factor in an excellent weekend at Kentucky and his points lead and Kyle makes my team this week.
Jimmie Johnson (7 Starts Remaining) - Statistically Jimmie is the best driver over the last 4 races here at Loudon. He "struggled" to an 8th place at Phoenix, ended up 11th due to late race pit problems at Martinsville (was a race winning contender), and was 3rd at Richmond most recently. This team is looking for wins and coming off a good run at Kentucky it would not surprise me to see the 48 end up in victory lane.
You could certainly make a case for Denny Hamlin to join Kyle for an all JGR A-List, Hamlin is coming off a decent performance at Kentucky (although the team was frustrated not to leave with a better result) and Hamlin was 2nd behind team mate Busch at Richmond and was a race winning contender at Martinsville before ending up 12th on the same pit problems as Johnson. I'm giving the nod to Johnson due to slightly better performance here at Loudon in the past.
Kurt Busch could also make your list this weekend as Loudon has always been a strong track for big brother. 95% of his laps inside the Top 15 the last 4 races here at Loudon is very telling. The team also has a lot of momentum, but that has mostly built on the faster tracks. The team has been terrible at the flat tracks this season minus an 8th place at Phoenix way back in February. I might kick myself for not continuing to ride the Kurt wave, but I feel Johnson and Little Brother are the safer bets this week.
If you are looking to go further off the radar, Jeff Gordon could be an option most won't use this week. Gordon won at Phoenix and was 5th at Martinsville, however I'm not big on this team right now as the momentum is only fair at best. Tony Stewart was very strong here last year before running out of gas on the closing laps, but again I just can't get behind Stewart as everyone thought he was the best car "by a mile" at Kentucky and the team still could not get the job done.
B-LIST:
Ryan Newman (6 Starts Remaining) - Newman is an absolute must when it comes to the flat tracks. Much like Kyle in the A-List, Loudon is not the best track for Newman but his performance isn't bad here. His 2011 numbers are heavily skewed as he had a great car at Richmond before wrecking with Montoya in a payback situation. Newman was also strong at Martinsville before a mechanical failure dropped him out. When he's not having bad luck, Phoenix with a 5th. Newman's team is also riding high after relieving some "bubble pressure" on the chase bump spot with a strong run at Kentucky.
Clint Bowyer (6 Starts Remaining) - Bowyer gets my 1 exception on the momentum factor for this week. The team was embarrasing at Kentucky, and I think that should be rock bottom for them. This has rebound week written all over it. Bowyer was 6th at Richmond and 9th at Martinsville this year, probably had a Top 10 car at Phoenix but was caught up in that huge early race wreck. Bowyer is the best driver of the B-List in the last 4 races here so he at least gets consideration for a start this week.
Kasey Kahne (6 Starts Remaining) - Kahne is another driver who has been up and down this year, but a lot of his ups came at the flat tracks this year. Kahne was very strong at Richmond with a 3rd, and was 6th at Phoenix. Kahne also had a great car at Martinsville before being pile-driven into the wall by a brake failure on Martin Truex Jr. This isn't a great track for Kahne, but neither was Phoenix where he ran 6th. Kahne used strategy to bring home a solid run at Kentucky and I want to use up some Kahne starts before the Red Bull shut down turmoil and Kahne looking ahead to Hendrick gets more prominent.
A.J. Allmendinger (7 Starts Remaining) - Allmendinger is an excellent start save option this week. Dinger had 2 very impressive runs here at Loudon last year, and he's backed it up on the flat tracks so far this year: 7th at Richmond, 14th at Martinsville (but ran top 10 most of the day), and 9th at Phoenix.
Juan Pablo Montoya is a popular pick for some teams this week. I debated on whether or not I should give the Kahne spot to JPM, but ultimately went with Kahne since I wanted to burn starts with him as I believe Montoya will have decent value at tracks for the remainder of the year while distractions could hurt Kahne. I've got 5 JPM starts left, one to use at Watkins Glen, 2 possibly at the big flats of Pocono and Indy, leaving 2 more to burn at short tracks and other flat tracks JPM has performed well at this year, plus JPM isn't all that bad on certain 1.5 milers.
David Reutimann's numbers here impressed me quite a bit when they popped up, but for the 2nd week in a row I'm not going to give him the respect that he deserves. I had that gut feeling after Thursday that I should put Reutimann in as my sleeper at Kentucky, but didn't pull the trigger. This week its the terrible performances at the flat tracks in 2011 (and at the other flats in 2010 outside of Loudon) that push the 00 off my team.
The deep B-List rounds out with Joey Logano. JGR flat track program is outstanding and Joey has had decent runs this year with an 11th at Richmond and 13th at Martinsville (a blown motor took out Joey early at Phoenix). The momentum is slowly building with this team, but its just not quite there yet. This could be the week they kick it into full gear, but I'm not risking a spot on my B-List for a guy who might run 15th all day.'
Dale Earnhardt Jr. is worth noting this week as his flat track performance has been fair in 2011, 19th at Richmond, 2nd at Martinsville, and 10th at Phoenix. However with limited starts left (I'm down to 3 myself) and the team having absolutely no momentum, this is not the week you burn another Junior start in hopes of a rebound.
C-LIST:
Unlike the B-List which is very deep this week, the C-List is terrible. I do believe David Ragan and Paul Menard will probably end up with the best finishes of the C-List, but they'll be racing with other C-Listers this week and I don't think the gap will be too substantial like it is on the 1.5 mile tracks. That being said, this week I'm biting the bullet and benching both the 6 and the 27 and squeezing a start out of some others:
Regan Smith (5 Starts Remaining) - I suspect Regan will get the start for me in the C-List. He was 17th at Richmond and had a very impressive car at Phoenix before getting caught up in the big wreck. Regan could also get some qualifying points for us as he's been great on the Q speed charts on the flats.
Bobby Labonte (7 Starts Remaining) - There is a chance Labonte could grab the start here in the C-List. Survived Richmond in 24th and Phoenix in 21st but had a very fast car at Martinsville before getting punted by Kurt Busch. I don't have enough confidence in anyone else in the C-List as a backup to Regan, so Labonte gets this spot by default, and I would be surprised to see anything better than a Top 20 out of Labonte.
Trevor Bayne is not scheduled to compete this weekend. A name that is starting to appear on the radar is Landon Cassill. Much like Labonte, he runs around that Top 25 area, but every now and then can wake up with some good strategy to grab a good finish. I'm a little more sold on him as a start-saver for much later in the season when I am literally out of Menard and Ragan starts.
Coming off a strong 310 point performance in Kentucky, FNG is up to the 93% overall and we look to continue that streak. We'll look at 2 sets of data, first lets take a look at the last 2 years (4 races) at Loudon:
AVERAGE FINISH:
A-LIST:
Ku. Busch - 6th
Gordon - 7th
Hamlin - 8th
Ky. Busch - 8th
B-LIST:
Reutimann - 10th
Bowyer - 10th
Newman - 13th
Earnhardt Jr - 15th
Martin - 16th
Montoya - 16th
Logano - 17th
Keselowski - 17th
C-LIST:
Smith - 26th
Labonte - 28th
Ragan - 28th
Menard - 30th
% of LAPS INSIDE TOP 15:
A-LIST:
Ku. Busch - 95%
Gordon - 90%
Johnson - 89%
Stewart - 84%
B-LIST:
Montoya - 87%
Bowyer - 80%
Reutimann - 78%
Earnhardt Jr - 77%
Newman - 72%
Burton - 66%
Martin - 62%
Kahne - 49%
C-LIST:
Labonte - 8%
Ragan - 7%
Menard - 5%
Smith - 0.9%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-LIST:
Johnson - 114
Ku. Busch - 112
Stewart - 107
Gordon - 107
B-LIST:
Bowyer - 104
Montoya - 103
Earnhardt Jr - 92
Reutimann - 91
Burton - 91
Martin - 89
Kahne - 88
Newman - 87
C-LIST:
Ragan - 55
Menard - 51
Labonte - 51
Smith - 50
Next, let's take a look at the flat tracks from 2010 and the ones from 2011 so far. 2010 Loudon x2, 2010 Richmond x2 and 2011 spring race, 2010 Phoenix x2 and 2011 spring race, and 2010 Martinsville x2 and 2011 spring race:
AVERAGE FINISH:
A-LIST:
Ky. Busch - 7th
Johnson - 8th
Hamlin - 9th
Harvick - 9th
B-LIST:
Newman - 10th
Logano - 13th
Bowyer - 13th
Earnhardt Jr - 14th
Martin - 15th
Allmendinger - 15th
Burton - 17th
Montoya - 17th
C-LIST:
Ragan - 19th
Menard - 26th
Smith - 27th
Labonte - 30th
% of LAPS INSIDE TOP 15:
A-LIST:
Ky. Busch - 90%
Johnson - 86%
Gordon - 79%
Stewart - 84%
B-LIST:
Newman - 81%
Bowyer - 77%
Montoya - 66%
Burton - 66%
Allmendinger - 62%
Logano - 49%
Reutimann - 49%
Martin - 48%
C-LIST:
Menard - 18%
Ragan - 16%
Smith - 12%
Labonte - 3%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-LIST:
Ky. Busch - 116
Hamlin - 109
Johnson - 108
Gordon - 107
B-LIST:
Bowyer - 101
Newman - 97
Burton - 94
Montoya - 89
Allmendinger - 86
Logano - 83
Martin - 83
Earnhardt Jr - 82
C-LIST:
Ragan - 66
Menard - 63
Smith - 57
Labonte - 50
Now that we have our baseline, we'll focus a little more on 2011 performances at the flat tracks so far (Phoenix, Richmond, Martinsville). All 3 of those races were 3 months ago or more, so its also import to factor in recent momentum over the past few races to lockdown with the following drivers:
A-LIST:
Kyle Busch (7 Starts Remaining) - There is just no denying the 18 this week. JGR has always had a fantastic flat track/brake program and it shows when you look at the loop data above. 2011 he won at Richmond, 3rd at Martinsville, 2nd at Phoenix. Loudon is probably the weakest of all the flat tracks for Kyle, but not by much. Factor in an excellent weekend at Kentucky and his points lead and Kyle makes my team this week.
Jimmie Johnson (7 Starts Remaining) - Statistically Jimmie is the best driver over the last 4 races here at Loudon. He "struggled" to an 8th place at Phoenix, ended up 11th due to late race pit problems at Martinsville (was a race winning contender), and was 3rd at Richmond most recently. This team is looking for wins and coming off a good run at Kentucky it would not surprise me to see the 48 end up in victory lane.
You could certainly make a case for Denny Hamlin to join Kyle for an all JGR A-List, Hamlin is coming off a decent performance at Kentucky (although the team was frustrated not to leave with a better result) and Hamlin was 2nd behind team mate Busch at Richmond and was a race winning contender at Martinsville before ending up 12th on the same pit problems as Johnson. I'm giving the nod to Johnson due to slightly better performance here at Loudon in the past.
Kurt Busch could also make your list this weekend as Loudon has always been a strong track for big brother. 95% of his laps inside the Top 15 the last 4 races here at Loudon is very telling. The team also has a lot of momentum, but that has mostly built on the faster tracks. The team has been terrible at the flat tracks this season minus an 8th place at Phoenix way back in February. I might kick myself for not continuing to ride the Kurt wave, but I feel Johnson and Little Brother are the safer bets this week.
If you are looking to go further off the radar, Jeff Gordon could be an option most won't use this week. Gordon won at Phoenix and was 5th at Martinsville, however I'm not big on this team right now as the momentum is only fair at best. Tony Stewart was very strong here last year before running out of gas on the closing laps, but again I just can't get behind Stewart as everyone thought he was the best car "by a mile" at Kentucky and the team still could not get the job done.
B-LIST:
Ryan Newman (6 Starts Remaining) - Newman is an absolute must when it comes to the flat tracks. Much like Kyle in the A-List, Loudon is not the best track for Newman but his performance isn't bad here. His 2011 numbers are heavily skewed as he had a great car at Richmond before wrecking with Montoya in a payback situation. Newman was also strong at Martinsville before a mechanical failure dropped him out. When he's not having bad luck, Phoenix with a 5th. Newman's team is also riding high after relieving some "bubble pressure" on the chase bump spot with a strong run at Kentucky.
Clint Bowyer (6 Starts Remaining) - Bowyer gets my 1 exception on the momentum factor for this week. The team was embarrasing at Kentucky, and I think that should be rock bottom for them. This has rebound week written all over it. Bowyer was 6th at Richmond and 9th at Martinsville this year, probably had a Top 10 car at Phoenix but was caught up in that huge early race wreck. Bowyer is the best driver of the B-List in the last 4 races here so he at least gets consideration for a start this week.
Kasey Kahne (6 Starts Remaining) - Kahne is another driver who has been up and down this year, but a lot of his ups came at the flat tracks this year. Kahne was very strong at Richmond with a 3rd, and was 6th at Phoenix. Kahne also had a great car at Martinsville before being pile-driven into the wall by a brake failure on Martin Truex Jr. This isn't a great track for Kahne, but neither was Phoenix where he ran 6th. Kahne used strategy to bring home a solid run at Kentucky and I want to use up some Kahne starts before the Red Bull shut down turmoil and Kahne looking ahead to Hendrick gets more prominent.
A.J. Allmendinger (7 Starts Remaining) - Allmendinger is an excellent start save option this week. Dinger had 2 very impressive runs here at Loudon last year, and he's backed it up on the flat tracks so far this year: 7th at Richmond, 14th at Martinsville (but ran top 10 most of the day), and 9th at Phoenix.
Juan Pablo Montoya is a popular pick for some teams this week. I debated on whether or not I should give the Kahne spot to JPM, but ultimately went with Kahne since I wanted to burn starts with him as I believe Montoya will have decent value at tracks for the remainder of the year while distractions could hurt Kahne. I've got 5 JPM starts left, one to use at Watkins Glen, 2 possibly at the big flats of Pocono and Indy, leaving 2 more to burn at short tracks and other flat tracks JPM has performed well at this year, plus JPM isn't all that bad on certain 1.5 milers.
David Reutimann's numbers here impressed me quite a bit when they popped up, but for the 2nd week in a row I'm not going to give him the respect that he deserves. I had that gut feeling after Thursday that I should put Reutimann in as my sleeper at Kentucky, but didn't pull the trigger. This week its the terrible performances at the flat tracks in 2011 (and at the other flats in 2010 outside of Loudon) that push the 00 off my team.
The deep B-List rounds out with Joey Logano. JGR flat track program is outstanding and Joey has had decent runs this year with an 11th at Richmond and 13th at Martinsville (a blown motor took out Joey early at Phoenix). The momentum is slowly building with this team, but its just not quite there yet. This could be the week they kick it into full gear, but I'm not risking a spot on my B-List for a guy who might run 15th all day.'
Dale Earnhardt Jr. is worth noting this week as his flat track performance has been fair in 2011, 19th at Richmond, 2nd at Martinsville, and 10th at Phoenix. However with limited starts left (I'm down to 3 myself) and the team having absolutely no momentum, this is not the week you burn another Junior start in hopes of a rebound.
C-LIST:
Unlike the B-List which is very deep this week, the C-List is terrible. I do believe David Ragan and Paul Menard will probably end up with the best finishes of the C-List, but they'll be racing with other C-Listers this week and I don't think the gap will be too substantial like it is on the 1.5 mile tracks. That being said, this week I'm biting the bullet and benching both the 6 and the 27 and squeezing a start out of some others:
Regan Smith (5 Starts Remaining) - I suspect Regan will get the start for me in the C-List. He was 17th at Richmond and had a very impressive car at Phoenix before getting caught up in the big wreck. Regan could also get some qualifying points for us as he's been great on the Q speed charts on the flats.
Bobby Labonte (7 Starts Remaining) - There is a chance Labonte could grab the start here in the C-List. Survived Richmond in 24th and Phoenix in 21st but had a very fast car at Martinsville before getting punted by Kurt Busch. I don't have enough confidence in anyone else in the C-List as a backup to Regan, so Labonte gets this spot by default, and I would be surprised to see anything better than a Top 20 out of Labonte.
Trevor Bayne is not scheduled to compete this weekend. A name that is starting to appear on the radar is Landon Cassill. Much like Labonte, he runs around that Top 25 area, but every now and then can wake up with some good strategy to grab a good finish. I'm a little more sold on him as a start-saver for much later in the season when I am literally out of Menard and Ragan starts.
Friday, July 8, 2011
KENTUCKY - Lockdown
Practice is over and weather played havoc with Friday activities. It would of been nice to seen more practice today and to get qualifying in but that is not the case. Let's take a look at the data we did collect from the weekend:
THURSDAY 10-Lap Averages: (remember, these were backup cars and a lot of different testing agendas)
Practice 1:
Practice 2:
FRIDAY:
Practice 3:
With the data above and our thoughts going in, we're locking down with the following:
A-LIST:
Kurt Busch (9 Starts Remaining) - You can't deny this team is hot right now. This team was strong at Kansas and they've even admitted they've really hit on a setup they like. I believe passing will be difficult with the bumps so I like the fact that Kurt starts 3rd. He should be a Top 5 car all night.
I'm benching Carl Edwards with 5 starts remaining. Yes he's strong on the 1.5 mile tracks but his practice numbers yesterday and today were just on par with the rest of the field. I can't see burning an Edwards start with uncertain data and a new track. Kurt's numbers were simply better and his dominance at Kansas I think will equate well here at Kentucky.
If you have him available, Tony Stewart seems to have the car to beat and I have him ranked #1 of all the A-List drivers. His speed over a long run is incredible. Kyle Busch has the bumps figured out and starting from the pole I believe he could lead a bunch of laps, his long run numbers weren't spectacular by any means but he's got more track time than anyone else on this tricky track this weekend. Matt Kenseth seems like his usual vanilla Top 10 self, and that's just not enough to get a start out of me.
B-LIST:
Brad Keselowski (9 Starts Remaining) - Mark me as officially drinking the Penske kool aid this weekend. I really like Kez as a sleeper this weekend. He's got his Kansas car here and he took Kurt Busch's setup and ran well, 2nd fastest in the 10-lap averages behind Stewart. His strong performance and win in the Nationwide race confirms that he's got the bumps figured out, I'm starting the deuce with confidence this week.
Joey Logano (7 Starts Remaining) - Put this pick with an asterik next to it, as I may switch out sliced bread depending on Mark Garrow's ESPN Crew Cheif notes tomorrow afternoon. Logano has been fair and his Nationwide performance wasn't that impressive either. Still I'm a believer that Logano will pull out a solid Top 15, potentially Top 10 run tomorrow night on his previous experience here.
My other 2 B-List options are Marcos Ambrose and Dale Earnhardt Jr. Unfortunately both of them were hard to read in the limited practice we saw today. Ambrose was very quick on a short run, but then fell off terribly over a longer stretch, and him and team mate Dinger being at the bottom of the 10-lap average charts does alarm me. However I've been burned in the past, as Ambrose was equally terrible in practice at Charlotte for the Coke 600, and then went out and had a strong performance. Ambrose does have a better starting position than Logano, and depending on what I see from the CC Notes on both of these drivers, the 9 could still make my team. Junior just did not run many long runs and is starting deep in the field. His short runs were decent but without seeing any long runs out of him I just don't have the confidence to burn 1 of my 3 remaining starts I have with Junebug.
Both Jeff Burton and David Reutimann have been impressive on the charts all weekend. However they are both high risk/high reward and neither has a good starting position. I would not be surprised to see either of these guys crack the Top 10, but I would also not be surprised to see these guys run outside the Top 20.
Neither Clint Bowyer or Ryan Newman have been that impressive this weekend, both have ranked deep in the charts most of the weekend and neither seems all that satisfied with their cars. Again, both of these guys start outside the Top 15 and I believe you can get stronger value out of both of these guys down the road, including Loudon coming up. Kasey Kahne has been all over the map in practice and is also hard to read, much like Ambrose, his short run speed is very impressive but the long runs seemed to fall off, as the 10-lap average showed today.
C-LIST:
David Ragan (4 Starts Remaining) - Somehow the C-List is out performing most of the B-List this weekend. Both Ragan and Menard have top 10 potential, and both start inside the Top 10. I am going with Ragan coming off his Daytona win and having the more "calm and collected" attitude of just trying to hold onto decent point finishes to carry him into the chase.
If you've burned through Ragan starts and still have a fair amount of Paul Menard starts left, you may want to go with the 27. Menard has been just 1 step behind Ragan all weekend on the speed charts on longer runs but still better than most of the B-List.
Regan Smith has been very impressive, but I just don't see him closing the deal on a Top 10 run. With how strong Ragan and Menard are this week there is just no reason to try to start save and use Regan. Kudos to Bobby Labonte who has also shown some speed this weekend, but no way I see him out performing the 6 or 27.
As always, follow http://www.FantasyNascarPreview.com Forum for the latest updates and last minute changes to the lineup. Good luck!
THURSDAY 10-Lap Averages: (remember, these were backup cars and a lot of different testing agendas)
Practice 1:
| Best 10 Consecutive Lap Average | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Car# | Driver | From Lap | To Lap | Avg Speed | Overall Rank | ||
| 1 | 18 | Kyle Busch | 70 | 79 | 173.544 | 4 | ||
| 2 | 00 | David Reutimann | 48 | 57 | 173.365 | 8 | ||
| 3 | 14 | Tony Stewart | 40 | 49 | 172.742 | 28 | ||
| 4 | 2 | Brad Keselowski | 5 | 14 | 172.422 | 18 | ||
| 5 | 121 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 33 | 42 | 172.289 | |||
| 6 | 27 | Paul Menard | 84 | 93 | 172.080 | 2 | ||
| 7 | 33 | Clint Bowyer | 43 | 52 | 171.924 | 32 | ||
| 8 | 31 | Jeff Burton | 35 | 44 | 171.791 | 14 | ||
| 9 | 125 | Sam Hornish Jr. | 42 | 51 | 171.709 | |||
| 10 | 48 | Jimmie Johnson | 3 | 12 | 171.329 | 1 | ||
| 11 | 124 | Mike Skinner | 17 | 26 | 170.637 | |||
| 12 | 51 | Landon Cassill(i) | 23 | 32 | 169.528 | 37 | ||
Practice 2:
| Best 10 Consecutive Lap Average | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Car# | Driver | From Lap | To Lap | Avg Speed | Overall Rank | ||
| 1 | 31 | Jeff Burton | 7 | 16 | 174.388 | 9 | ||
| 2 | 27 | Paul Menard | 11 | 20 | 173.995 | 4 | ||
| 3 | 24 | Jeff Gordon | 12 | 21 | 173.992 | 8 | ||
| 4 | 88 | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 15 | 24 | 173.766 | 25 | ||
| 5 | 4 | Kasey Kahne | 28 | 37 | 173.229 | 34 | ||
| 6 | 2 | Brad Keselowski | 35 | 44 | 173.190 | 31 | ||
| 7 | 18 | Kyle Busch | 16 | 25 | 173.070 | 1 | ||
| 8 | 6 | David Ragan | 54 | 63 | 172.917 | 26 | ||
| 9 | 125 | Sam Hornish Jr. | 12 | 21 | 172.860 | x | ||
| 10 | 48 | Jimmie Johnson | 1 | 10 | 172.768 | 6 | ||
| 11 | 43 | A J Allmendinger | 18 | 27 | 172.580 | 33 | ||
| 12 | 9 | Marcos Ambrose | 39 | 48 | 172.496 | 32 | ||
| 13 | 121 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 1 | 10 | 172.482 | x | ||
| 14 | 51 | Landon Cassill(i) | 36 | 45 | 172.420 | 35 | ||
| 15 | 29 | Kevin Harvick | 23 | 32 | 172.051 | 36 | ||
| 16 | 42 | Juan Pablo Montoya | 19 | 28 | 171.633 | 14 | ||
| 17 | 83 | Brian Vickers | 29 | 38 | 171.115 | 41 | ||
| 18 | 38 | Travis Kvapil(i) | 6 | 15 | 170.405 | 39 | ||
FRIDAY:
Practice 3:
| Best 10 Consecutive Lap Average | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Car# | Driver | From Lap | To Lap | Avg Speed | Overall Rank | ||
| 1 | 14 | Tony Stewart | 24 | 33 | 178.513 | 9 | ||
| 2 | 2 | Brad Keselowski | 22 | 31 | 177.409 | 6 | ||
| 3 | 78 | Regan Smith | 3 | 12 | 177.321 | 12 | ||
| 4 | 6 | David Ragan | 26 | 35 | 177.314 | 8 | ||
| 5 | 27 | Paul Menard | 5 | 14 | 177.179 | 10 | ||
| 6 | 31 | Jeff Burton | 7 | 16 | 176.916 | 22 | ||
| 7 | 22 | Kurt Busch | 12 | 21 | 176.847 | 3 | ||
| 8 | 17 | Matt Kenseth | 9 | 18 | 176.794 | 13 | ||
| 9 | 00 | David Reutimann | 6 | 15 | 176.791 | 17 | ||
| 10 | 5 | Mark Martin | 28 | 37 | 176.783 | 28 | ||
| 11 | 56 | Martin Truex Jr. | 32 | 41 | 176.655 | 16 | ||
| 12 | 18 | Kyle Busch | 38 | 47 | 176.453 | 1 | ||
| 13 | 42 | Juan Pablo Montoya | 25 | 34 | 176.368 | 2 | ||
| 14 | 4 | Kasey Kahne | 25 | 34 | 176.277 | 4 | ||
| 15 | 33 | Clint Bowyer | 19 | 28 | 176.117 | 20 | ||
| 16 | 39 | Ryan Newman | 25 | 34 | 176.064 | 18 | ||
| 17 | 48 | Jimmie Johnson | 26 | 35 | 175.967 | 5 | ||
| 18 | 9 | Marcos Ambrose | 9 | 18 | 175.778 | 11 | ||
| 19 | 43 | A J Allmendinger | 14 | 23 | 175.510 | 23 | ||
With the data above and our thoughts going in, we're locking down with the following:
A-LIST:
Kurt Busch (9 Starts Remaining) - You can't deny this team is hot right now. This team was strong at Kansas and they've even admitted they've really hit on a setup they like. I believe passing will be difficult with the bumps so I like the fact that Kurt starts 3rd. He should be a Top 5 car all night.
I'm benching Carl Edwards with 5 starts remaining. Yes he's strong on the 1.5 mile tracks but his practice numbers yesterday and today were just on par with the rest of the field. I can't see burning an Edwards start with uncertain data and a new track. Kurt's numbers were simply better and his dominance at Kansas I think will equate well here at Kentucky.
If you have him available, Tony Stewart seems to have the car to beat and I have him ranked #1 of all the A-List drivers. His speed over a long run is incredible. Kyle Busch has the bumps figured out and starting from the pole I believe he could lead a bunch of laps, his long run numbers weren't spectacular by any means but he's got more track time than anyone else on this tricky track this weekend. Matt Kenseth seems like his usual vanilla Top 10 self, and that's just not enough to get a start out of me.
B-LIST:
Brad Keselowski (9 Starts Remaining) - Mark me as officially drinking the Penske kool aid this weekend. I really like Kez as a sleeper this weekend. He's got his Kansas car here and he took Kurt Busch's setup and ran well, 2nd fastest in the 10-lap averages behind Stewart. His strong performance and win in the Nationwide race confirms that he's got the bumps figured out, I'm starting the deuce with confidence this week.
Joey Logano (7 Starts Remaining) - Put this pick with an asterik next to it, as I may switch out sliced bread depending on Mark Garrow's ESPN Crew Cheif notes tomorrow afternoon. Logano has been fair and his Nationwide performance wasn't that impressive either. Still I'm a believer that Logano will pull out a solid Top 15, potentially Top 10 run tomorrow night on his previous experience here.
My other 2 B-List options are Marcos Ambrose and Dale Earnhardt Jr. Unfortunately both of them were hard to read in the limited practice we saw today. Ambrose was very quick on a short run, but then fell off terribly over a longer stretch, and him and team mate Dinger being at the bottom of the 10-lap average charts does alarm me. However I've been burned in the past, as Ambrose was equally terrible in practice at Charlotte for the Coke 600, and then went out and had a strong performance. Ambrose does have a better starting position than Logano, and depending on what I see from the CC Notes on both of these drivers, the 9 could still make my team. Junior just did not run many long runs and is starting deep in the field. His short runs were decent but without seeing any long runs out of him I just don't have the confidence to burn 1 of my 3 remaining starts I have with Junebug.
Both Jeff Burton and David Reutimann have been impressive on the charts all weekend. However they are both high risk/high reward and neither has a good starting position. I would not be surprised to see either of these guys crack the Top 10, but I would also not be surprised to see these guys run outside the Top 20.
Neither Clint Bowyer or Ryan Newman have been that impressive this weekend, both have ranked deep in the charts most of the weekend and neither seems all that satisfied with their cars. Again, both of these guys start outside the Top 15 and I believe you can get stronger value out of both of these guys down the road, including Loudon coming up. Kasey Kahne has been all over the map in practice and is also hard to read, much like Ambrose, his short run speed is very impressive but the long runs seemed to fall off, as the 10-lap average showed today.
C-LIST:
David Ragan (4 Starts Remaining) - Somehow the C-List is out performing most of the B-List this weekend. Both Ragan and Menard have top 10 potential, and both start inside the Top 10. I am going with Ragan coming off his Daytona win and having the more "calm and collected" attitude of just trying to hold onto decent point finishes to carry him into the chase.
If you've burned through Ragan starts and still have a fair amount of Paul Menard starts left, you may want to go with the 27. Menard has been just 1 step behind Ragan all weekend on the speed charts on longer runs but still better than most of the B-List.
Regan Smith has been very impressive, but I just don't see him closing the deal on a Top 10 run. With how strong Ragan and Menard are this week there is just no reason to try to start save and use Regan. Kudos to Bobby Labonte who has also shown some speed this weekend, but no way I see him out performing the 6 or 27.
As always, follow http://www.FantasyNascarPreview.com Forum for the latest updates and last minute changes to the lineup. Good luck!
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
KENTUCKY - Preview & Data
For the first time ever, NASCAR visits Kentucky for a Cup race. This is a great opportunity to make up ground on your competition as they may just take a few "shots in the dark" since they may not think there is any data to go off of coming into this weeks event. However, that is not the case.
Kentucky has been around for years and has been beat on by Nationwide, Truck Series, ARCA, IndyCar and many others. The track surface is worn and rough and has defined bumps. Kentucky has 14 degrees of bank in the corners, 8 on the front stretch and 4 on the back stretch. Most similar is Kansas with 15 in the corners, 10 on the front and 5 on the back. However Kansas is much smoother, so you also have to look at bumpier tracks, especially Texas and to a smaller extent Charlotte.
Also factor in like many of the other 1.5 mile tracks, we could see long green flag runs and a fuel mileage game at the end of the race. Finally there is an "open test" on Thursday at the track before lockdown. Teams will not only be allowed to get additional track time for the Kentucky race, but they will also be allowed to test the new 2012 Fuel Injection systems for the first time:
"During an open test day Thursday, originally scheduled so Cup teams would have extra time on a track they have not previously competed, teams will also be allowed to test cars with fuel injection. NASCAR officials expect each of the four manufacturers to have at least one car with EFI on the track. They will all likely be driven by drivers not competing in Saturday’s Cup race."
Currently there is no scheduled TV coverage of the Thursday open test. Additionally, we might have access to limited, or possibly even no data as far as lap times for the Thursday test. Check NASCAR.com throughout the day to see if they provide a live leaderboard.
For now, here are the ones to watch coming into the inaugural weekend at Kentucky:
A-LIST:
Once again, it's hard to argue against Roush Fenway Racing on the intermediates. Carl Edwards has experience from the Truck and Nationwide series here at Kentucky, and has been consistently the best driver on the Intermediates this season. Edwards was 5th at Kansas and 3rd at Texas, leading in both races. If you're looking for a negative on Edwards, his momentum and loss of the points lead after Daytona is about the only thing you can point towards. Team mate Matt Kenseth absolutely embarrassed the field at Texas this year on his way to a victory, led the most laps at Charlotte, and finished 6th at Kansas earlier this year. Greg Biffle did the tire test here and felt comfortable with his setup, but as always, Biffle is high risk/high reward.
You can't ignore the performance of Kurt Busch as of late. Kurt had the dominate car at Kansas before fuel mileage took him out of the running. Even when the team wasn't performing well earlier in the season, Kurt still managed a 10th place run at Texas. Kurt has also been crushing it on qualifying earlier this year, and if you feel confident in your A-List starter, you might slide Kurt into your A-List bench for qualifying points only. Team mates Keselowski did the tire test here so Penske has notes to pull from coming into the weekend.
One of the best in managing a fuel mileage race is Denny Hamlin. Hamlin was 3rd at Kansas earlier this year and had a Top 10 going in Charlotte before running out of fuel on the final lap. The 11 team has turned their program around on the intermediates. Team mate Kyle Busch however has struggled on the intermediates this year, and about the only positive you can look at with Kyle is his previous experience here in the Nationwide cars.
Finally give a glance at Kevin Harvick, who was also part of the tire test here. Harvick won the fuel mileage game at Charlotte earlier this year, but has been outside the Top 10 at Kansas and Texas. He ranks right in with Biffle for me as a high risk/high reward pick this weekend.
B-LIST:
Much like Edwards in the A-List, when you think Intermediates, think Dale Earnhardt Jr. Yes he is the hot topic this week after showing frustrations from Daytona, but you can't ignore the great fuel mileage he's got this year, pulling out a 2nd at Kansas on fuel mileage and falling a few hundred feet short of victory at Charlotte. Back that up with a solid 9th place at Texas and I'm sold on the 88.
Clint Bowyer is a great insurance policy to have this weekend. Clint has raced here in the past in the Nationwide series and Clint has also shown strength this year at Texas with a 2nd place run plus a history of strong performances from Kansas. You will want to have insurance as you should be able to get some sleeper value from our next 3 competitors...
Joey Logano has been dominate here in the Nationwide series with 3 victories in 3 starts at Kentucky. The team is getting better on the Intermediates this year, and Logano did the tire test here earlier in the year. Even Biffle commented during the tire test how good Logano was, going as far to say Joey would be the car to beat this weekend. Brad Keselowski did the tire test here as the lone Dodge entry. Kez also won at Kansas this year on fuel mileage, won the pole at Charlotte and was running in the Top 10 before getting caught up in a late race restart crash. Finally Marcos Ambrose has been stout at Texas and Charlotte this year, both with Top 10 performances throughout the night and should be in the sleeper conversation this weekend.
The rest of the B-List has been all over the map this year on the intermediates. Guys like Juan Pablo Montoya, Kasey Kahne, and Ryan Newman could surprise as they are great on slick bumpy tracks, however they are high risk/high reward and you could get better value out of them at other tracks. Mark Martin and David Reutimann also participated in the tire test here, but neither driver has had any luck on the Intermediates this year, running outside the Top 15-20 most races (Reutimann did sneak a 7th place at Charlotte on fuel mileage).
C-LIST:
You have to really like David Ragan these final 10 races before the chase. As of right now, Ragan is sitting pretty inside the Top 20 in points and with a win that has him currently in the chase as of this week. To me this means Ragan is going to look for solid points finishes to stay in that chase spot, and not take some of the unnecessary risks we've seen earlier this season. Add into the fact that Ragan as 13th at Kansas, 7th (and the pole winner) at Texas and 2nd after the fuel mileage battle at Charlotte makes him a lock for my team this week.
Paul Menard is a great backup option and there is an outside chance Menard could sneak into a starting position. Menard was 5th at Texas, got bit by fuel strategy at Kansas and wrecked at Charlotte so its hard to hold those poor finishes against him entirely. Menard's intermediate performance have been stout and he is also known to wake up and throw down a lap in qualifying.
Regan Smith is another option, more for qualifying points than anything else. I just can't see benching Ragan or Menard for any reason this weekend as Smith has been mediocre at best this year on the Intermediates. Likewise Bobby Labonte just doesn't have the speed on these tracks and should be avoided. Travis Kvapil did the tire test here but there is almost no reason to go that deep in the C-List for a starter. Trevor Bayne is not scheduled to compete this weekend.
Check back here Thursday night to see our final lockdown team and if we have any last minute data to provide from the Thursday open test.
Kentucky has been around for years and has been beat on by Nationwide, Truck Series, ARCA, IndyCar and many others. The track surface is worn and rough and has defined bumps. Kentucky has 14 degrees of bank in the corners, 8 on the front stretch and 4 on the back stretch. Most similar is Kansas with 15 in the corners, 10 on the front and 5 on the back. However Kansas is much smoother, so you also have to look at bumpier tracks, especially Texas and to a smaller extent Charlotte.
Also factor in like many of the other 1.5 mile tracks, we could see long green flag runs and a fuel mileage game at the end of the race. Finally there is an "open test" on Thursday at the track before lockdown. Teams will not only be allowed to get additional track time for the Kentucky race, but they will also be allowed to test the new 2012 Fuel Injection systems for the first time:
"During an open test day Thursday, originally scheduled so Cup teams would have extra time on a track they have not previously competed, teams will also be allowed to test cars with fuel injection. NASCAR officials expect each of the four manufacturers to have at least one car with EFI on the track. They will all likely be driven by drivers not competing in Saturday’s Cup race."
Currently there is no scheduled TV coverage of the Thursday open test. Additionally, we might have access to limited, or possibly even no data as far as lap times for the Thursday test. Check NASCAR.com throughout the day to see if they provide a live leaderboard.
For now, here are the ones to watch coming into the inaugural weekend at Kentucky:
A-LIST:
Once again, it's hard to argue against Roush Fenway Racing on the intermediates. Carl Edwards has experience from the Truck and Nationwide series here at Kentucky, and has been consistently the best driver on the Intermediates this season. Edwards was 5th at Kansas and 3rd at Texas, leading in both races. If you're looking for a negative on Edwards, his momentum and loss of the points lead after Daytona is about the only thing you can point towards. Team mate Matt Kenseth absolutely embarrassed the field at Texas this year on his way to a victory, led the most laps at Charlotte, and finished 6th at Kansas earlier this year. Greg Biffle did the tire test here and felt comfortable with his setup, but as always, Biffle is high risk/high reward.
You can't ignore the performance of Kurt Busch as of late. Kurt had the dominate car at Kansas before fuel mileage took him out of the running. Even when the team wasn't performing well earlier in the season, Kurt still managed a 10th place run at Texas. Kurt has also been crushing it on qualifying earlier this year, and if you feel confident in your A-List starter, you might slide Kurt into your A-List bench for qualifying points only. Team mates Keselowski did the tire test here so Penske has notes to pull from coming into the weekend.
One of the best in managing a fuel mileage race is Denny Hamlin. Hamlin was 3rd at Kansas earlier this year and had a Top 10 going in Charlotte before running out of fuel on the final lap. The 11 team has turned their program around on the intermediates. Team mate Kyle Busch however has struggled on the intermediates this year, and about the only positive you can look at with Kyle is his previous experience here in the Nationwide cars.
Finally give a glance at Kevin Harvick, who was also part of the tire test here. Harvick won the fuel mileage game at Charlotte earlier this year, but has been outside the Top 10 at Kansas and Texas. He ranks right in with Biffle for me as a high risk/high reward pick this weekend.
B-LIST:
Much like Edwards in the A-List, when you think Intermediates, think Dale Earnhardt Jr. Yes he is the hot topic this week after showing frustrations from Daytona, but you can't ignore the great fuel mileage he's got this year, pulling out a 2nd at Kansas on fuel mileage and falling a few hundred feet short of victory at Charlotte. Back that up with a solid 9th place at Texas and I'm sold on the 88.
Clint Bowyer is a great insurance policy to have this weekend. Clint has raced here in the past in the Nationwide series and Clint has also shown strength this year at Texas with a 2nd place run plus a history of strong performances from Kansas. You will want to have insurance as you should be able to get some sleeper value from our next 3 competitors...
Joey Logano has been dominate here in the Nationwide series with 3 victories in 3 starts at Kentucky. The team is getting better on the Intermediates this year, and Logano did the tire test here earlier in the year. Even Biffle commented during the tire test how good Logano was, going as far to say Joey would be the car to beat this weekend. Brad Keselowski did the tire test here as the lone Dodge entry. Kez also won at Kansas this year on fuel mileage, won the pole at Charlotte and was running in the Top 10 before getting caught up in a late race restart crash. Finally Marcos Ambrose has been stout at Texas and Charlotte this year, both with Top 10 performances throughout the night and should be in the sleeper conversation this weekend.
The rest of the B-List has been all over the map this year on the intermediates. Guys like Juan Pablo Montoya, Kasey Kahne, and Ryan Newman could surprise as they are great on slick bumpy tracks, however they are high risk/high reward and you could get better value out of them at other tracks. Mark Martin and David Reutimann also participated in the tire test here, but neither driver has had any luck on the Intermediates this year, running outside the Top 15-20 most races (Reutimann did sneak a 7th place at Charlotte on fuel mileage).
C-LIST:
You have to really like David Ragan these final 10 races before the chase. As of right now, Ragan is sitting pretty inside the Top 20 in points and with a win that has him currently in the chase as of this week. To me this means Ragan is going to look for solid points finishes to stay in that chase spot, and not take some of the unnecessary risks we've seen earlier this season. Add into the fact that Ragan as 13th at Kansas, 7th (and the pole winner) at Texas and 2nd after the fuel mileage battle at Charlotte makes him a lock for my team this week.
Paul Menard is a great backup option and there is an outside chance Menard could sneak into a starting position. Menard was 5th at Texas, got bit by fuel strategy at Kansas and wrecked at Charlotte so its hard to hold those poor finishes against him entirely. Menard's intermediate performance have been stout and he is also known to wake up and throw down a lap in qualifying.
Regan Smith is another option, more for qualifying points than anything else. I just can't see benching Ragan or Menard for any reason this weekend as Smith has been mediocre at best this year on the Intermediates. Likewise Bobby Labonte just doesn't have the speed on these tracks and should be avoided. Travis Kvapil did the tire test here but there is almost no reason to go that deep in the C-List for a starter. Trevor Bayne is not scheduled to compete this weekend.
Check back here Thursday night to see our final lockdown team and if we have any last minute data to provide from the Thursday open test.
Friday, July 1, 2011
DAYTONA 2 - Lockdown
Unfortunately with practice washed out for the most part we didn't get to see cars make single runs to find out who could possibly get us qualifying points. In all honesty however this race is a crapshoot, and there can be an argument made to take almost any driver that you don't think is going to be a 9-start guy.
Our team will consist of the following:
A-LIST:
Jeff Gordon (8 Starts Remaining) - Hendrick has 4 strong cars and I believe Jeff has the experience and patience to be one of those cars up front by the time the race is over. Also could potentially grab us some qualifying points.
B-LIST:
Mark Martin (7 Starts Remaining) - Gordon and Martin are committed to running together as much as possible during the race. I like 2 veterans with cool heads and team mates to work together for a solid finish.
A.J. Allmendinger (8 Starts Remaining) - File this one under why not? FR9 engines should be strong and A.J. was the fastest in the little practice they got yesterday (for what little that is worth). A.J. has also been staying out of trouble on the plate tracks this year with 2 solid finishes.
C-LIST:
David Gilliland (9 Starts Remaining) - Going off the radar a bit in the C-List. Everyone and their sister-in-law will pick Trevor Bayne so I want to stay different from the pack. Regan Smith could be another popular choice and with good reason but he could also give us 9 start value elsewhere. I like Gilliland because he's got some experience, decent plate cars, and he's got the blessing of restrictor plate ace Tony Stewart as his partner for the race.
Our team will consist of the following:
A-LIST:
Jeff Gordon (8 Starts Remaining) - Hendrick has 4 strong cars and I believe Jeff has the experience and patience to be one of those cars up front by the time the race is over. Also could potentially grab us some qualifying points.
B-LIST:
Mark Martin (7 Starts Remaining) - Gordon and Martin are committed to running together as much as possible during the race. I like 2 veterans with cool heads and team mates to work together for a solid finish.
A.J. Allmendinger (8 Starts Remaining) - File this one under why not? FR9 engines should be strong and A.J. was the fastest in the little practice they got yesterday (for what little that is worth). A.J. has also been staying out of trouble on the plate tracks this year with 2 solid finishes.
C-LIST:
David Gilliland (9 Starts Remaining) - Going off the radar a bit in the C-List. Everyone and their sister-in-law will pick Trevor Bayne so I want to stay different from the pack. Regan Smith could be another popular choice and with good reason but he could also give us 9 start value elsewhere. I like Gilliland because he's got some experience, decent plate cars, and he's got the blessing of restrictor plate ace Tony Stewart as his partner for the race.
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