The first go round this year to the paperclip. This is a track where you can roll out some studs, and save some others. Good news/bad news this week is that qualifying is on Saturday for the Cup series. The good news is Saturday qualifying means you get to watch 2 practice sessions on Friday and you don't have to lock in your lineup until Saturday morning. Bad news it makes reading those practice sessions potentially more difficult to read as certain teams may not make any long race runs and focus solely on qualifying.
With that being said, we're going to give you the Loop Data and the "drivers to watch" on Friday. We will be posting our lineup Friday night and then posting who we are locking into the starting positions on Saturday evening.
Let's take a look at the data from Martinsville only, from all the COT races (2007-2010):
AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION:
A-LIST:
Hamlin - 3rd
Johnson - 3rd
Gordon - 5th
Edwards - 13th
B-LIST:
Martin - 10th
Keselowski - 11th
Earnhardt Jr - 12th
Burton - 12th
Newman - 13th
Logano - 13th
Bowyer - 14th
Montoya - 15th
C-LIST:
Ragan - 18th
Menard - 20th
Mears - 22nd
Labonte - 29th
% of LAPS IN TOP 15:
A-LIST:
Johnson - 95%
Gordon - 95%
Hamlin - 87%
Edwards - 76%
B-LIST:
Earnhardt Jr - 78%
Martin - 77%
Burton - 77%
Bowyer - 74%
Vickers - 74%
McMurray - 60%
Newman - 54%
Logano - 51%
C-LIST:
Mears - 39%
Ragan - 34%
Schrader - 22%
Labonte - 17%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-LIST:
Johnson - 125
Hamlin - 120
Gordon - 119
Harvick - 98
B-LIST:
Earnhardt Jr - 104
Martin - 101
Burton - 99
Bowyer - 91
Newman - 89
McMurray - 88
Vickers - 85
Montoya -83
C-LIST:
Ragan - 72
Mears - 68
Schrader - 58
Menard - 57
Now let's take a look at the "Flat Tracks" (Martinsville, Loudon, Richmond, Phoenix) from 2010 only:
AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION:
A-LIST:
Johnon - 8th
Gordon - 8th
Hamlin - 9th
Ky. Busch - 9th
B-LIST:
Newman - 9th
Harvick - 10th
Logano - 11th
Bowyer - 13th
Burton - 15th
Earnhardt Jr - 16th
Martin - 16th
Allmendinger - 17th
C-LIST:
Ragan - 21st
Menard - 24th
Mears - 30th
Labonte - 33rd
% of LAPS IN TOP 15:
A-LIST:
Johnson - 93%
Ky. Busch - 88%
Edwards 83%
Gordon - 77%
B-LIST:
Burton - 82%
Newman - 81%
Bowery - 79%
Montoya - 78%
Allmendinger - 59%
Logano - 58%
Reutimann - 48%
Earnhardt Jr - 46%
C-LIST:
Menard - 17%
Ragan - 9%
Gordon - 4%
Smith - 4%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-LIST:
Johnson - 111
Ky. Busch - 110
Hamlin - 107
Gordon - 103
B-LIST:
Burton - 103
Bowyer - 103
Newman - 98
Montoya - 93
Logano - 89
Allmendinger - 84
Earnhardt Jr - 82
Reutimann - 82
C-LIST:
Menard - 64
Ragan - 63
Mears - 55
Smith - 54
With all the data above, factoring in Phoenix 1 performance (the only other flat track they've been to so far), Bristol 1 performance, and momentum from California, we're watching the following drivers on Friday:
A-LIST:
JIMMIE JOHNSON (9 Starts Remaining) - Don't be lured into the 'start save' mentality too much here. The A-List is not a place you need to start save, it's a place where you need to pick race winners. That being said, this is an excellent track for Jimmie Johnson. He basically leads all categories at Martinsville and on the Flat Tracks in 2010. I'm not worried about the 48 "testing" here, as there are so many flat short tracks in the country you can test on. And after getting punted from the lead within eyesight of the checkered flag, and being winless so far in 2011, I think a very motivated 48 team rolls into Martinsville.
DENNY HAMLIN (9 Starts Remaining) - Won both races in 2010, and I am not worried about engine failure here (that story could change if they grenade another one on Friday in any of the 3 JGR cars). Unless I see smoke from the tailpipes on Friday, he's getting serious consideration for Sunday.
JEFF GORDON (9 Starts Remaining) - This is a guy you rarely find me placing on my A-List team, I'm not a Gordon-hater, but he just doesn't strike me as a "potential race winner" too often. This could be one of the rare times that he does. Won at Phoenix this year, excellent track record here and a good qualifying run by the 24 will get him starting consideration.
Kyle Busch just misses consideration this week. When I think Martinsville I think smart drivers who can float it into the corners and save the brakes. Smart and non-aggressive driving is not something I relate to Kyle Busch. Also keeping the nugget of information when Carl Edwards slipped in his post race interview in Bristol stating "I still owe Kyle 1", Martinsville is the perfect track to cash that IOU. The rest of the A-List drops off steadily from here and it would be a Friday practice miracle if I would consider anyone else in the A-List for a start.
B-LIST:
DALE EARNHARDT Jr. (9 Starts Remaining) - !? Junior leading off my B-List on a non-restrictor plate track!? Believe it. The B and C list I am looking to reach for some start-saves. I believe guys like Clint Bowyer and Ryan Newman are going to be really valuable at a lot of other tracks, so unless they're performing at a solid Top 10-Top 5 level, they will find the bench come Sunday. Back to Junebug, he's got momentum building, had a decent 10th place finish at Phoenix this year, has great stats at this track, with Steve Letarte who also has a great track record here with Gordon. Junior will get serious starting consideration this week.
RYAN NEWMAN (8 Starts Remaining) - I'd love to start-save Newman here, but I have a feeling it won't happen. Newman leads the B-List in overall performance this year and he's solid on the short tracks. With qualifying being at a premium here it would not surprise me to see the Rocket Man start Top 10 and grab one of my 2 B-List starting spots.
MARK MARTIN (7 Starts Remaining) - A lot of people are pretty sour after Martin performed at C-List level last weekend, and hence they're jumping off the wagon. I have lost some of my faith for Martin, but the reason he's become such a disappointment is his inability to keep up with the changing race track. You don't have changing track issues here at Martinsville, so this might be a place to burn a Martin start, especially if he qualifies well.
JEFF BURTON (7 Starts Remaining) -!? Jeff "You're Dead To Me" Burton!? Same theory as Martin, Burton's past track record here, RCR momentum as a whole coming into this weekend, and the fact that I'd like to be done with my Burton starts, he will get consideration.
BRAD KESELOWSKI (9 Starts Remaining) - You won't see Kez's name pop up on the loop data at too many tracks, but it does here at Martinsville. Although he doesn't have much in the way of momentum the last few races, he did manage a 15th in Phoenix however. This could be a sleeper reach, and will be one I will keep a close eye on this week.
I of course will be keeping an eye on Clint Bowyer, but as always, I'm going to need to see solid Top 10 potential to roll out a moderately "risky" start here at M'ville. Joey Logano finished 2nd and 6th here last year but he's been so terrible that he'll have to impress to get a starting spot come Sunday. Slight glance will be given to Brian Vickers as well on past numbers and momentum from California.
C-LIST:
BOBBY LABONTE (9 Starts Remaining) - I'm going to have to find a darn good reason not to start-save and get a Labonte start here at Martinsville. His past numbers here aren't great but he's been in low-grade equipment. It was pretty obvious from Las Vegas and California that we can't get a Labonte start at a majority of the bigger tracks. Between his 21st at Phoenix and his Top 10 run at Bristol, the 47 will have to be all but junk to not get the start.
DAVID RAGAN (8 Starts Remaining) - If Labonte is out to lunch (eating one of those famous hot dogs) Ragan should be a suitable backup. Again Ragan has shown to be a disappointment at Vegas and California, so we need to find other tracks where he's got potential. He had a decent run at Phoenix going until he was caught in the wreck, and he also put together a Top 15 run at Bristol. With his past numbers here also being pretty solid, Ragan is my go-to guy this week.
Unless Paul Menard is Top 5-8 potential, he's getting benched. He's a solid 10-12 spots better than the rest of the C-List at the larger tracks that make up most of the schedule, so we need him at every opportunity we've got at those places. So unless he's a good 15+ spots better than the rest of the C-List, Menard gets the bench this week. Regan Smith stats are junk here and were junk at the flat tracks in 2010. He did show promise at Phoenix before getting wrecked, but I doubt I'll be using a 78 start. Trevor Bayne gets the big red X through him this week. Like Bristol, this is another place that eats rookies alive.
Check back late Friday for a practice wrap up and our lineup heading into qualifying, and check back Saturday to see who will get the 4 starting positions. As always, join the conversation with the experts over at http://www.FantasyNascarPreview.com on their forum all weekend long!
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Monday, March 28, 2011
FONTANA - Wrap Up
A decent day for the FNG Fantasy team slowly got worse until it finally exploded in the closing 10 laps.
Tony Stewart got aero-loose running in 3rd, killing his momentum and leaving him in a pack of cars with fresh tires. Smoke had no chance, and basically gave away 20 fantasy points within the last 10 laps. The Stewart Vs. Carl Edwards pick still ended with Edwards only being +4 Yahoo points better than Stewart thanks to Stewart leading laps.
Juan Pablo Montoya was a solid Top 10 car most of the day, faded late but was able to rebound with some aggressive driving to just sneak inside the Top 10 late. Mark Martin was a huge disappointment. I'm not sure whether to blame Martin or Lance McGrew but this team is starting to get a track record of "not being able to keep up with the track" and as the rubber got laid down, Martin got worse, so much so that Mark Martin was the worst car on the lead lap late in the race and quite frankly was in the way.
Trevor Bayne was another disappointment. Smacking the wall on Lap 3 basically ruined any chances of a good day. Bayne caught the wall 2-3 times total during the day, and on a track like California where its easy to stay out of trouble, Bayne continued to find ways to get into trouble. However I am not too devastated with getting a start-save out of Bayne with David Ragan under-performing as well, only 16 Yahoo points difference this week between the 2 drivers.
A decent 275-is point day took a hard dive with Stewart losing a ton of ground late and Martin falling to the back of the field, my team ended with 252 points and ultimately slid 9% overall in Yahoo.
Taking a look at the rest of the field:
A-LIST:
Typical Jimmie Johnson weekend, not that impressive in practice, qualifying, or the first half of the race. But the 48 got it figured out and was in contention until 0.5 mile from the checkered flag. I guarantee the 48 is going to be more motivated than ever going into Martinsville, one of his best tracks statistically.
Welcome to 2011 RCR. The entire group is finally back on track, and although I don't think Kevin Harvick had much more that a 4th-5th place car, but the late cautions and the crew chief making steady improvements vaulted the 29 to the win.
Kyle Busch was a high-risk/high-reward driver this week, and it ended with high reward, obviously picking a JGR driver on these larger tracks is a very dangerous game of Russian Roulette with both his team mates blowing motors.
B-LIST:
I should of respected Red Bull Racing more as the stats backed up their performance, but Brian Vickers lack of momentum and Kasey Kahne being all over the place in practice had me worried. This team rebounded great and will be darn near an auto-lock when it comes to Michigan.
As noted above, welcome to 2011 RCR. Clint Bowyer was the class of the B-List, as I suspect he will be often this year. Jeff Burton also, finally, got a solid finish, but lets not forget he did everything he could to throw it away with a pit road penalty, and only a rare stroke of good luck brought the caution out literally moments before he went a lap down.
Ryan Newman is the real deal and the momentum SHR should continue right through Martinsville where Newman has some pretty sporty stats.
Martin Truex Jr. continues to be a trap that people are falling into. It's not uncommon for this car to look great in practice and qualifying and even better in the early stages of a race. But NASCAR requires constant changes to your car throughout the race to keep the handling, and Truex has never been good at keeping up with a changing track, ever in his career.
C-LIST:
Paul Menard is simply dominate in the C-List this year. The biggest challenge this year will be to figure out when the rest of the C-List drivers such as David Ragan, Regan Smith, and Trevor Bayne will finish within a few spots of Menard. Fontana appeared to have all the makings of a track where "the best of the rest" could be in the ballpark with Menard, but it wasn't the case. Only late race shuffling caused Menard to fade back to where he finished, his car was much better.
Tony Stewart got aero-loose running in 3rd, killing his momentum and leaving him in a pack of cars with fresh tires. Smoke had no chance, and basically gave away 20 fantasy points within the last 10 laps. The Stewart Vs. Carl Edwards pick still ended with Edwards only being +4 Yahoo points better than Stewart thanks to Stewart leading laps.
Juan Pablo Montoya was a solid Top 10 car most of the day, faded late but was able to rebound with some aggressive driving to just sneak inside the Top 10 late. Mark Martin was a huge disappointment. I'm not sure whether to blame Martin or Lance McGrew but this team is starting to get a track record of "not being able to keep up with the track" and as the rubber got laid down, Martin got worse, so much so that Mark Martin was the worst car on the lead lap late in the race and quite frankly was in the way.
Trevor Bayne was another disappointment. Smacking the wall on Lap 3 basically ruined any chances of a good day. Bayne caught the wall 2-3 times total during the day, and on a track like California where its easy to stay out of trouble, Bayne continued to find ways to get into trouble. However I am not too devastated with getting a start-save out of Bayne with David Ragan under-performing as well, only 16 Yahoo points difference this week between the 2 drivers.
A decent 275-is point day took a hard dive with Stewart losing a ton of ground late and Martin falling to the back of the field, my team ended with 252 points and ultimately slid 9% overall in Yahoo.
Taking a look at the rest of the field:
A-LIST:
Typical Jimmie Johnson weekend, not that impressive in practice, qualifying, or the first half of the race. But the 48 got it figured out and was in contention until 0.5 mile from the checkered flag. I guarantee the 48 is going to be more motivated than ever going into Martinsville, one of his best tracks statistically.
Welcome to 2011 RCR. The entire group is finally back on track, and although I don't think Kevin Harvick had much more that a 4th-5th place car, but the late cautions and the crew chief making steady improvements vaulted the 29 to the win.
Kyle Busch was a high-risk/high-reward driver this week, and it ended with high reward, obviously picking a JGR driver on these larger tracks is a very dangerous game of Russian Roulette with both his team mates blowing motors.
B-LIST:
I should of respected Red Bull Racing more as the stats backed up their performance, but Brian Vickers lack of momentum and Kasey Kahne being all over the place in practice had me worried. This team rebounded great and will be darn near an auto-lock when it comes to Michigan.
As noted above, welcome to 2011 RCR. Clint Bowyer was the class of the B-List, as I suspect he will be often this year. Jeff Burton also, finally, got a solid finish, but lets not forget he did everything he could to throw it away with a pit road penalty, and only a rare stroke of good luck brought the caution out literally moments before he went a lap down.
Ryan Newman is the real deal and the momentum SHR should continue right through Martinsville where Newman has some pretty sporty stats.
Martin Truex Jr. continues to be a trap that people are falling into. It's not uncommon for this car to look great in practice and qualifying and even better in the early stages of a race. But NASCAR requires constant changes to your car throughout the race to keep the handling, and Truex has never been good at keeping up with a changing track, ever in his career.
C-LIST:
Paul Menard is simply dominate in the C-List this year. The biggest challenge this year will be to figure out when the rest of the C-List drivers such as David Ragan, Regan Smith, and Trevor Bayne will finish within a few spots of Menard. Fontana appeared to have all the makings of a track where "the best of the rest" could be in the ballpark with Menard, but it wasn't the case. Only late race shuffling caused Menard to fade back to where he finished, his car was much better.
Saturday, March 26, 2011
FONTANA - Lockdown Lineup
Fairly uneventful qualifying and practice session on the left coast, the only unknown will be if the rains do come tonight and wash the rubber off the track. Here at Fontana the track is relatively easy to pass (minus the aero-tight issues when you get behind a fellow competitor), so I'm not placing too much weight on qualifying position or pit selection with the long and wide pit road.
Let's look at the numbers:
Overall Average Times of the Noteables from P2:
A-List:
Edwards - 40.50 (18 laps)
Kenseth - 40.81 (24)
Johnson - 40.84 (29)
Stewart - 40.85 (25)
B-List:
Martin - 40.58 (30 Laps)
Bowyer - 40.64 (28)
Kahne - 40.71 (12...and brushed the wall)
Vickers - 40.75 (28)
Montoya - 40.76 (17)
Truex Jr - 40.77 (22)
Logano - 40.78 (25)
Ambrose - 40.80 (24)
C-List:
Menard - 40.64 (20 Laps)
Ragan - 40.91 (31)
Smith - 40.92 (19)
Bayne - 40.92 (16)
And 10-Lap Averages from P2:
1 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1 10 177.941 13
2 39 Ryan Newman 19 28 177.829 15
3 33 Clint Bowyer 1 10 177.712 20
4 48 Jimmie Johnson 1 10 177.700 12
5 14 Tony Stewart 1 10 177.639 6
6 18 Kyle Busch 1 10 177.561 4
7 27 Paul Menard 1 10 177.398 19
8 5 Mark Martin 20 29 177.297 7
9 43 A J Allmendinger 1 10 177.253 21
10 31 Jeff Burton 20 29 176.494 8
11 83 Brian Vickers 6 15 176.054 18
12 11 Denny Hamlin 18 27 175.346 2
13 2 Brad Keselowski 17 26 174.563 27
P3 Overall Lap Averages of Noteables:
A-List:
Johnson - 40.63 (32 Laps)
Stewart - 40.66 (36)
Edwards - 40.67 (27)
Kenseth - 40.80 (32)
B-List:
Martin - 40.56 (27 Laps)
Bowyer - 40.61 (28)
Vickers - 40.68 (26)
Burton - 40.74 (43)
Truex Jr - 40.77 (35)
Kahne - 40.78 (26)
Logano - 40.85 (38)
Montoya - 40.93 (29)
Ambrose - 41.08 (32)
C-List:
Bayne - 40.63 (24)
Ragan - 40.69 (28)
Menard - 40.78 (35)
Smith - 40.99 (33)
And P3 10-Lap Averages
Rank Car# Driver From Lap To Lap Avg Speed Overall Rank
1 14 Tony Stewart 1 10 177.794 2
2 33 Clint Bowyer 1 10 177.779 7
3 48 Jimmie Johnson 14 23 177.616 13
4 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1 10 177.348 18
5 31 Jeff Burton 1 10 177.305 10
6 24 Jeff Gordon 19 28 176.895 5
7 11 Denny Hamlin 25 34 176.871 12
8 56 Martin Truex Jr. 25 34 176.650 25
9 18 Kyle Busch 20 29 176.603 6
10 27 Paul Menard 15 24 176.524 8
11 39 Ryan Newman 30 39 176.486 11
12 20 Joey Logano 1 10 176.445 26
13 42 Juan Pablo Montoya 11 20 176.389 28
14 13 Casey Mears 22 31 176.122 19
15 00 David Reutimann 11 20 175.539 27
16 9 Marcos Ambrose 23 32 175.415 29
17 78 Regan Smith 23 32 175.213 23
18 22 Kurt Busch 14 23 175.205 30
19 47 Bobby Labonte 18 27 175.188 32
20 34 David Gilliland 8 17 175.072 33
A-LIST:
Carl Edwards seems satisfied with his ride and I think he'll be one of the contenders for the win come the end of the afternoon. Edwards is a little bit hard to pin point as he did not make any long runs (did not run a 10-lap consecutive stretch at any point). He did complain of a vibration, but that is nothing new and a bit of a recurring driveshaft issue with the RFR Fords. Honestly I'm surprised the Ford's haven't show the dominance they did at Las Vegas.
Tony Stewart is my other "man to beat" come Sunday. He's got a great car and was the fastest car across the all important 10-lap averages. This team knows they need clean air and is not afraid to use strategy to get out front. I like the 14 to be my potential race winner.
Jimmie Johnson seems fair in practice, they were all over the map trying different setups and didn't really hit on what they liked until the end of P3. I still like the 48 as a Top 5 car, but I don't see him as a race winner. I'd start Edwards or Stewart over the 48 this week.
Kevin Harvick and the entire RCR crew has been the biggest surprise to me this weekend, I'm placing the 29 behind the 3 drivers listed above and Harvick should be solidly inside the Top 10 all day.
Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth both have struggled surprisingly here this weekend. Neither have showed much speed and don't appear to be race winners as I thought they could be coming into this weekend. After wasting his primary car, Kyle Busch has rebounded nicely and he and team mate Denny Hamlin should be Top 10 (if those pesky JGR engine problems don't continue to pop up). Kurt Busch is junk and he even commented in practice that "we'll be racing for 25th"...yikes.
A-LIST RANKS: 14, 99, 48, 29, 18, 11, 17, 16
B-LIST:
Welcome to 2011 Clint Bowyer, the 33 is back on top of the B-List as I suspect he will be often this season. The car was outstanding in practice and he should be solidly inside the Top 10 with his team mate Harvick.
Mark Martin is putting up fantastic numbers all day long and seems happy with his ride. This is another great opportunity to get a Martin start out of the way early in the season. And as we noted earlier in the week, no one is better on getting fuel mileage out of a car than Martin.
Ryan Newman is having another solid weekend, he's right in the "pack" of B-Listers so I am not sure you should roll out a start with Newman this week. His runs are comparable to Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Burton, Brian Vickers, and Juan Pablo Montoya. All of which have been solid on the charts and seem to have cars that should be inside the Top 15. I do like getting a start out of Earnhardt Jr and Montoya here as this is their "style" of track and they have the most up-side potential out of this group.
Kasey Kahne has been a disappointment. After brushing the wall in P2 the team has been playing catch up just to get back to where they started the weekend. Jamie McMurray has been all over the map this weekend and I don't see him much inside the Top 20. My Marcos Ambrose pick was...a bust, should run around the Top 15-20 but I really thought with the Ford FR9 power he'd have a shot to turn some heads this weekend.
B-LIST RANKS: 33-5-88-42-39-31-83-4-9-1-00-43-56
C-LIST:
Paul Menard is once again solid but its time to save the 27 for greener pastures. David Ragan and Trevor Bayne are both having impressive weekends and should finish right with, if not ahead of the 27 this week. Although the Fords aren't dominate like I thought they would be, they are still running strong and they are the way to go in the C-List. Regan Smith doesn't have the speed over the long runs which is going to prove troublesome here at California so the 78 gets benched this week.
C-LIST RANKS: 6-21-27-78-47
For our lineup, we're rolling with the following:
A-LIST:
TONY STEWART (9 Starts Remaining) - For me this is a coinflip situation as I feel the 99 and 14 are going to be 1-2 this weekend, but I'm going to roll with the 14 as the 99 red hot momentum has to end at some point, and with the Ford dominance not as prominent as I thought it would be, I'm going to gamble with Smoke this weekend to edge out the win.
Bench - Carl Edwards (7 Starts Remaining)
B-LIST:
MARK MARTIN (8 Starts Remaining) - See above for all the info put this one is a pretty simple plug-n-play for me, next!
JUAN PABLO MONTOYA (9 Starts Remaining) - I'm not thrilled on my B-List choices of 42, 4, and 9 but I'm going with Montoya as this is his kind of track. Added to the fact that he can hopefully lead a lap early for bonus points and Brian Pattie likes to use strategy to keep Montoya up front, I'm going with the 42 to round out by B-List
Bench - Kasey Kahne (8 Starts Remaining) and Marcos Ambrose (9 Starts Remaining)
C-LIST:
TREVOR BAYNE (9 Starts Remaining) - Bayne is a strategy move here, as Ragan might end up a spot or two better than Ragan. But we've got limited opportunities to use Bayne this season, and we need to get starts out of him. With Menard not being the dominate force of the C-List and Bayne's performance right on par with Ragan, this is the perfect opportunity to sneak in a Bayne start.
Bench - David Ragan (8 Starts Remaining)
As always, check the Yahoo message board for our live link to our race day chat for your last minute questions to be answered!
Let's look at the numbers:
Overall Average Times of the Noteables from P2:
A-List:
Edwards - 40.50 (18 laps)
Kenseth - 40.81 (24)
Johnson - 40.84 (29)
Stewart - 40.85 (25)
B-List:
Martin - 40.58 (30 Laps)
Bowyer - 40.64 (28)
Kahne - 40.71 (12...and brushed the wall)
Vickers - 40.75 (28)
Montoya - 40.76 (17)
Truex Jr - 40.77 (22)
Logano - 40.78 (25)
Ambrose - 40.80 (24)
C-List:
Menard - 40.64 (20 Laps)
Ragan - 40.91 (31)
Smith - 40.92 (19)
Bayne - 40.92 (16)
And 10-Lap Averages from P2:
1 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1 10 177.941 13
2 39 Ryan Newman 19 28 177.829 15
3 33 Clint Bowyer 1 10 177.712 20
4 48 Jimmie Johnson 1 10 177.700 12
5 14 Tony Stewart 1 10 177.639 6
6 18 Kyle Busch 1 10 177.561 4
7 27 Paul Menard 1 10 177.398 19
8 5 Mark Martin 20 29 177.297 7
9 43 A J Allmendinger 1 10 177.253 21
10 31 Jeff Burton 20 29 176.494 8
11 83 Brian Vickers 6 15 176.054 18
12 11 Denny Hamlin 18 27 175.346 2
13 2 Brad Keselowski 17 26 174.563 27
P3 Overall Lap Averages of Noteables:
A-List:
Johnson - 40.63 (32 Laps)
Stewart - 40.66 (36)
Edwards - 40.67 (27)
Kenseth - 40.80 (32)
B-List:
Martin - 40.56 (27 Laps)
Bowyer - 40.61 (28)
Vickers - 40.68 (26)
Burton - 40.74 (43)
Truex Jr - 40.77 (35)
Kahne - 40.78 (26)
Logano - 40.85 (38)
Montoya - 40.93 (29)
Ambrose - 41.08 (32)
C-List:
Bayne - 40.63 (24)
Ragan - 40.69 (28)
Menard - 40.78 (35)
Smith - 40.99 (33)
And P3 10-Lap Averages
Rank Car# Driver From Lap To Lap Avg Speed Overall Rank
1 14 Tony Stewart 1 10 177.794 2
2 33 Clint Bowyer 1 10 177.779 7
3 48 Jimmie Johnson 14 23 177.616 13
4 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1 10 177.348 18
5 31 Jeff Burton 1 10 177.305 10
6 24 Jeff Gordon 19 28 176.895 5
7 11 Denny Hamlin 25 34 176.871 12
8 56 Martin Truex Jr. 25 34 176.650 25
9 18 Kyle Busch 20 29 176.603 6
10 27 Paul Menard 15 24 176.524 8
11 39 Ryan Newman 30 39 176.486 11
12 20 Joey Logano 1 10 176.445 26
13 42 Juan Pablo Montoya 11 20 176.389 28
14 13 Casey Mears 22 31 176.122 19
15 00 David Reutimann 11 20 175.539 27
16 9 Marcos Ambrose 23 32 175.415 29
17 78 Regan Smith 23 32 175.213 23
18 22 Kurt Busch 14 23 175.205 30
19 47 Bobby Labonte 18 27 175.188 32
20 34 David Gilliland 8 17 175.072 33
A-LIST:
Carl Edwards seems satisfied with his ride and I think he'll be one of the contenders for the win come the end of the afternoon. Edwards is a little bit hard to pin point as he did not make any long runs (did not run a 10-lap consecutive stretch at any point). He did complain of a vibration, but that is nothing new and a bit of a recurring driveshaft issue with the RFR Fords. Honestly I'm surprised the Ford's haven't show the dominance they did at Las Vegas.
Tony Stewart is my other "man to beat" come Sunday. He's got a great car and was the fastest car across the all important 10-lap averages. This team knows they need clean air and is not afraid to use strategy to get out front. I like the 14 to be my potential race winner.
Jimmie Johnson seems fair in practice, they were all over the map trying different setups and didn't really hit on what they liked until the end of P3. I still like the 48 as a Top 5 car, but I don't see him as a race winner. I'd start Edwards or Stewart over the 48 this week.
Kevin Harvick and the entire RCR crew has been the biggest surprise to me this weekend, I'm placing the 29 behind the 3 drivers listed above and Harvick should be solidly inside the Top 10 all day.
Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth both have struggled surprisingly here this weekend. Neither have showed much speed and don't appear to be race winners as I thought they could be coming into this weekend. After wasting his primary car, Kyle Busch has rebounded nicely and he and team mate Denny Hamlin should be Top 10 (if those pesky JGR engine problems don't continue to pop up). Kurt Busch is junk and he even commented in practice that "we'll be racing for 25th"...yikes.
A-LIST RANKS: 14, 99, 48, 29, 18, 11, 17, 16
B-LIST:
Welcome to 2011 Clint Bowyer, the 33 is back on top of the B-List as I suspect he will be often this season. The car was outstanding in practice and he should be solidly inside the Top 10 with his team mate Harvick.
Mark Martin is putting up fantastic numbers all day long and seems happy with his ride. This is another great opportunity to get a Martin start out of the way early in the season. And as we noted earlier in the week, no one is better on getting fuel mileage out of a car than Martin.
Ryan Newman is having another solid weekend, he's right in the "pack" of B-Listers so I am not sure you should roll out a start with Newman this week. His runs are comparable to Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Burton, Brian Vickers, and Juan Pablo Montoya. All of which have been solid on the charts and seem to have cars that should be inside the Top 15. I do like getting a start out of Earnhardt Jr and Montoya here as this is their "style" of track and they have the most up-side potential out of this group.
Kasey Kahne has been a disappointment. After brushing the wall in P2 the team has been playing catch up just to get back to where they started the weekend. Jamie McMurray has been all over the map this weekend and I don't see him much inside the Top 20. My Marcos Ambrose pick was...a bust, should run around the Top 15-20 but I really thought with the Ford FR9 power he'd have a shot to turn some heads this weekend.
B-LIST RANKS: 33-5-88-42-39-31-83-4-9-1-00-43-56
C-LIST:
Paul Menard is once again solid but its time to save the 27 for greener pastures. David Ragan and Trevor Bayne are both having impressive weekends and should finish right with, if not ahead of the 27 this week. Although the Fords aren't dominate like I thought they would be, they are still running strong and they are the way to go in the C-List. Regan Smith doesn't have the speed over the long runs which is going to prove troublesome here at California so the 78 gets benched this week.
C-LIST RANKS: 6-21-27-78-47
For our lineup, we're rolling with the following:
A-LIST:
TONY STEWART (9 Starts Remaining) - For me this is a coinflip situation as I feel the 99 and 14 are going to be 1-2 this weekend, but I'm going to roll with the 14 as the 99 red hot momentum has to end at some point, and with the Ford dominance not as prominent as I thought it would be, I'm going to gamble with Smoke this weekend to edge out the win.
Bench - Carl Edwards (7 Starts Remaining)
B-LIST:
MARK MARTIN (8 Starts Remaining) - See above for all the info put this one is a pretty simple plug-n-play for me, next!
JUAN PABLO MONTOYA (9 Starts Remaining) - I'm not thrilled on my B-List choices of 42, 4, and 9 but I'm going with Montoya as this is his kind of track. Added to the fact that he can hopefully lead a lap early for bonus points and Brian Pattie likes to use strategy to keep Montoya up front, I'm going with the 42 to round out by B-List
Bench - Kasey Kahne (8 Starts Remaining) and Marcos Ambrose (9 Starts Remaining)
C-LIST:
TREVOR BAYNE (9 Starts Remaining) - Bayne is a strategy move here, as Ragan might end up a spot or two better than Ragan. But we've got limited opportunities to use Bayne this season, and we need to get starts out of him. With Menard not being the dominate force of the C-List and Bayne's performance right on par with Ragan, this is the perfect opportunity to sneak in a Bayne start.
Bench - David Ragan (8 Starts Remaining)
As always, check the Yahoo message board for our live link to our race day chat for your last minute questions to be answered!
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
FONTANA - Lineup
After coming off a season high 348 points from Bristol, it's onto the long sweeping curves of Southern California. First we'll take a look at the Loop Data, which will consist of all the races 2008-2010 at both Michigan and Fontana:
AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION:
A-List:
Edwards - 8th
Johnson - 9th
Stewart - 9th
Kenseth - 10th
B-List:
Vickers - 10th
Bowyer - 14th
Logano - 14th
Kahne - 16th
Martin - 16th
Reutimann - 17th
Montoya - 18th
Burton - 18th
C-List:
Ragan - 17th
Mears - 24th
Elliott - 24th
Smith - 26th
% of LAPS in TOP 15:
A-List:
Johnson - 93%
Biffle - 80%
Edwards - 80%
Kenseth - 77%
B-List:
Vickers - 69%
Martin - 65%
Kahne - 65%
Montoya - 56%
Bowyer - 53%
Burton - 50%
Reutimann - 48%
Earnhardt Jr - 46%
C-List:
Ragan - 42%
Mears - 14%
Menard - 9%
Kvapil - 9%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Johnson - 126
Edwards - 102
Gordon - 102
Biffle - 100
B-List:
Vickers - 99
Martin- 92
Kahne - 91
Bowyer - 85
Montoya - 85
Earnhardt Jr - 81
Reutimann - 78
Burton - 78
C-List:
Ragan - 78
Mears - 60
Menard - 53
Smith - 52
Now that we have the Loop Data reviewed, we'll factor in momentum from Bristol and performance from Las Vegas with a few other factors mixed in. The result is our lineup heading into the weekend:
A-LIST:
CARL EDWARDS (7 Starts Remaining) - Let me first say you can go ahead and tag me with a big blue oval on my forehead this weekend as I think the Fords as a whole will be stout. These tracks have always favored the Fords and with the momentum of Edwards and his performance at Las Vegas there is no doubt I will gladly burn another 99 start this weekend if need be. Edwards is my LOCK of the week.
TONY STEWART (9 Starts Remaining) - I'll allow you to pick your jaw up off the floor that I did not pick Jimmie Johnson for the team this week. Johnson's numbers at these tracks are unbelievable without a doubt, however I am going to roll the dice and go with Stewart this week. Stewart won the fall race here and was impressive the last time the held a spring race in California. Couple that with a strong run from Vegas and I'm gambling on the 14 this week as a potential starter.
No Jimmie Johnson!? This move is not for the faint at heart, and I can't fault anyone for almost auto-starting Johnson here, but my fear is this team and them openly "testing" for later in the season. It once again showed their testing mode in Bristol where they weren't even concerned about running the new tire compound in practice. This is a fuel mileage type track, and it would not surprise me at all if the 48 tries a different setup that could potentially give them more horsepower...but also run them out of fuel. Pair that with the team struggling in Las Vegas also gives me a small red flag. It's still a long season, I've got plenty of opportunities to auto start Johnson later in the year, so for now, he finds the bench.
One could also argue on getting a start-save out of Greg Biffle or Matt Kenseth, both of which I believe will easily be Top 10 and probably Top 5 cars by the end of the day. These are the only two other drivers I'd go with outside of the 3 mentioned above. Jeff Gordon's numbers are fair here but I don't perceive this team to be a race winner after the struggles in Vegas. I am still a bit cautious over the engine troubles at JGR so Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch, coupled with their mediocre Loop Data, aren't anywhere close to starting status.
B-LIST:
MARK MARTIN (8 Starts Remaining) - When you think fuel mileage, you think Mark Martin. This guy is a pro at feathering the throttle when need be. Add that to good Loop Data and a solid weekend in Bristol and Martin finds my roster this weekend. I am a bit concerned over the mediocre Las Vegas results, so he is by no means a lock to start the race.
KASEY KAHNE (8 Starts Remaining) - You may not have noticed, but Kahne is having a very solid and impressive year. This team has been floating around the Top 10 in all of the races this year, and you can't ask for much more out of a B-List driver than that. Kahne has a pretty solid track record here, paired with his momentum from Bristol and performance in Vegas puts the Red Bull ride on the roster this week.
JUAN PABLO MONTOYA (9 Starts Remaining) - The stats for this year aren't an indication on how well Montoya has been performing. Montoya rebounded from practice adversity and was moving through the field before getting run over by the Bayne Trayne late in the race. Montoya's 3rd place finish in Las Vegas also grabs my attention, along with his decent Loop Data from previous years here. This is a run it wide open and high line type of track that fits into JPM's style, so I'm placing the 42 on my roster this week.
MARCOS AMBROSE (9 Starts Remaining) - I admit this is another reach, and it goes with my waving the Ford banner proudly this week. Ambrose is my wild card in the 4th spot. Ambrose is coming off a very solid weekend in Bristol and his performance in Las Vegas was stout. Lets not forget RPM as a whole was pretty sporty here in Fontana last year as well. I'm a firm believer the Ford FR9 is going to be a big difference maker this weekend, so I am rolling the dice with Ambrose rounding out my B-List.
Brian Vickers isn't getting the love he deserves, being, by far, the best ranked driver in the B-List in Loop Data. But for whatever reason Vickers is up-and-down this year. Check back with me later in the week as I might get convinced to put Vickers into the lineup and punt Ambrose or Montoya out. For right now Vickers, just barely, misses my lineup. Motor worries and a string of bad luck put Joey Logano off the team this week. RCR as a whole needs to get it turned around before I consider burning a Clint Bowyer start.
C-LIST:
DAVID RAGAN (8 Starts Remaining) - If I had unlimited Menard starts my life would be much easier. It's going to be about finding the weeks when the rest of the C-List can somewhat keep up with Menard. I believe California is one of those tracks. Ragan has surprisingly good Loop Data, far and away better than the rest of the C-List. He finally put together a decent finish in Bristol, and with his Ford power I'm placing Ragan on the roster.
TREVOR BAYNE (9 Starts Remaining) - I have to get some Bayne starts here before too long. We're 5 races into his 18 race schedule, so 13 more chances to get at least 4-5 starts out of him. This track is pretty easy on rookies, and his Nationwide record isn't too shabby here. A decent run in Las Vegas seals the deal for me coupled with, you guessed it, Ford FR9 power and Bayne gets start consideration from me.
Paul Menard's previous stats here aren't that impressive and although he will probably lead the C-List once again I feel this week Ragan or Bayne have a shot at being in his ballpark once they cross the finish line. Regan Smith could be a sleeper but I am not going to risk it here at California, and Bobby Labonte has finally earned my respect....for next week at Martinsville.
AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION:
A-List:
Edwards - 8th
Johnson - 9th
Stewart - 9th
Kenseth - 10th
B-List:
Vickers - 10th
Bowyer - 14th
Logano - 14th
Kahne - 16th
Martin - 16th
Reutimann - 17th
Montoya - 18th
Burton - 18th
C-List:
Ragan - 17th
Mears - 24th
Elliott - 24th
Smith - 26th
% of LAPS in TOP 15:
A-List:
Johnson - 93%
Biffle - 80%
Edwards - 80%
Kenseth - 77%
B-List:
Vickers - 69%
Martin - 65%
Kahne - 65%
Montoya - 56%
Bowyer - 53%
Burton - 50%
Reutimann - 48%
Earnhardt Jr - 46%
C-List:
Ragan - 42%
Mears - 14%
Menard - 9%
Kvapil - 9%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Johnson - 126
Edwards - 102
Gordon - 102
Biffle - 100
B-List:
Vickers - 99
Martin- 92
Kahne - 91
Bowyer - 85
Montoya - 85
Earnhardt Jr - 81
Reutimann - 78
Burton - 78
C-List:
Ragan - 78
Mears - 60
Menard - 53
Smith - 52
Now that we have the Loop Data reviewed, we'll factor in momentum from Bristol and performance from Las Vegas with a few other factors mixed in. The result is our lineup heading into the weekend:
A-LIST:
CARL EDWARDS (7 Starts Remaining) - Let me first say you can go ahead and tag me with a big blue oval on my forehead this weekend as I think the Fords as a whole will be stout. These tracks have always favored the Fords and with the momentum of Edwards and his performance at Las Vegas there is no doubt I will gladly burn another 99 start this weekend if need be. Edwards is my LOCK of the week.
TONY STEWART (9 Starts Remaining) - I'll allow you to pick your jaw up off the floor that I did not pick Jimmie Johnson for the team this week. Johnson's numbers at these tracks are unbelievable without a doubt, however I am going to roll the dice and go with Stewart this week. Stewart won the fall race here and was impressive the last time the held a spring race in California. Couple that with a strong run from Vegas and I'm gambling on the 14 this week as a potential starter.
No Jimmie Johnson!? This move is not for the faint at heart, and I can't fault anyone for almost auto-starting Johnson here, but my fear is this team and them openly "testing" for later in the season. It once again showed their testing mode in Bristol where they weren't even concerned about running the new tire compound in practice. This is a fuel mileage type track, and it would not surprise me at all if the 48 tries a different setup that could potentially give them more horsepower...but also run them out of fuel. Pair that with the team struggling in Las Vegas also gives me a small red flag. It's still a long season, I've got plenty of opportunities to auto start Johnson later in the year, so for now, he finds the bench.
One could also argue on getting a start-save out of Greg Biffle or Matt Kenseth, both of which I believe will easily be Top 10 and probably Top 5 cars by the end of the day. These are the only two other drivers I'd go with outside of the 3 mentioned above. Jeff Gordon's numbers are fair here but I don't perceive this team to be a race winner after the struggles in Vegas. I am still a bit cautious over the engine troubles at JGR so Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch, coupled with their mediocre Loop Data, aren't anywhere close to starting status.
B-LIST:
MARK MARTIN (8 Starts Remaining) - When you think fuel mileage, you think Mark Martin. This guy is a pro at feathering the throttle when need be. Add that to good Loop Data and a solid weekend in Bristol and Martin finds my roster this weekend. I am a bit concerned over the mediocre Las Vegas results, so he is by no means a lock to start the race.
KASEY KAHNE (8 Starts Remaining) - You may not have noticed, but Kahne is having a very solid and impressive year. This team has been floating around the Top 10 in all of the races this year, and you can't ask for much more out of a B-List driver than that. Kahne has a pretty solid track record here, paired with his momentum from Bristol and performance in Vegas puts the Red Bull ride on the roster this week.
JUAN PABLO MONTOYA (9 Starts Remaining) - The stats for this year aren't an indication on how well Montoya has been performing. Montoya rebounded from practice adversity and was moving through the field before getting run over by the Bayne Trayne late in the race. Montoya's 3rd place finish in Las Vegas also grabs my attention, along with his decent Loop Data from previous years here. This is a run it wide open and high line type of track that fits into JPM's style, so I'm placing the 42 on my roster this week.
MARCOS AMBROSE (9 Starts Remaining) - I admit this is another reach, and it goes with my waving the Ford banner proudly this week. Ambrose is my wild card in the 4th spot. Ambrose is coming off a very solid weekend in Bristol and his performance in Las Vegas was stout. Lets not forget RPM as a whole was pretty sporty here in Fontana last year as well. I'm a firm believer the Ford FR9 is going to be a big difference maker this weekend, so I am rolling the dice with Ambrose rounding out my B-List.
Brian Vickers isn't getting the love he deserves, being, by far, the best ranked driver in the B-List in Loop Data. But for whatever reason Vickers is up-and-down this year. Check back with me later in the week as I might get convinced to put Vickers into the lineup and punt Ambrose or Montoya out. For right now Vickers, just barely, misses my lineup. Motor worries and a string of bad luck put Joey Logano off the team this week. RCR as a whole needs to get it turned around before I consider burning a Clint Bowyer start.
C-LIST:
DAVID RAGAN (8 Starts Remaining) - If I had unlimited Menard starts my life would be much easier. It's going to be about finding the weeks when the rest of the C-List can somewhat keep up with Menard. I believe California is one of those tracks. Ragan has surprisingly good Loop Data, far and away better than the rest of the C-List. He finally put together a decent finish in Bristol, and with his Ford power I'm placing Ragan on the roster.
TREVOR BAYNE (9 Starts Remaining) - I have to get some Bayne starts here before too long. We're 5 races into his 18 race schedule, so 13 more chances to get at least 4-5 starts out of him. This track is pretty easy on rookies, and his Nationwide record isn't too shabby here. A decent run in Las Vegas seals the deal for me coupled with, you guessed it, Ford FR9 power and Bayne gets start consideration from me.
Paul Menard's previous stats here aren't that impressive and although he will probably lead the C-List once again I feel this week Ragan or Bayne have a shot at being in his ballpark once they cross the finish line. Regan Smith could be a sleeper but I am not going to risk it here at California, and Bobby Labonte has finally earned my respect....for next week at Martinsville.
Sunday, March 20, 2011
BRISTOL 1 - Wrap Up
Well geekers if you followed our lineup this week, congrats, you scored 348 points on a difficult track to predict a +300 point finish. Here are some of the notes from today:
-Kyle Busch had a good car, maybe not even the best car but his driving ability and his pit crew got it done for him when it counted and that was enough for the win.
-Carl Edwards is still red hot, do not be afraid to use up a fair amount of your 99 starts early on here in the season. Edwards is in a contract year, and his FOX Pre-Race interview with DW confirmed what most are saying, he's not signed on the dotted line with Roush. This could be a distraction factor down the stretch. Combine that with guys like Johnson and Hamlin who should be solid picks during the Chase, I am not afraid to continue to ride the Edwards hot streak and burn through his starts.
-Jimmie Johnson is that good. This team was junk in the whopping 6 laps of practice they did on the new compound tire, and he had arguably the best car all day long. I can never argue against starting the 48, but I do believe they are still in a bit of test mode here early on, and with guys like Edwards running great you can afford to push off your 48 starts.
-Ryan Newman continues to be the stud of the B-List. Between his strong runs and great qualifying promise, you're going to almost have to have the 39 on your list at most tracks. But be careful, you want to make sure you maximize your value with Newman starts and don't waste him on a track where he does not have Top 10 potential.
-Likewise I still believe you will get 9 starts out of Clint Bowyer, but this team is really really slow getting out of the box and I would save his starts until some momentum starts to swing his way. Jeff Burton's team devastated what could of been a Top 15 run with a loose wheel early in the race. As I said earlier, this team is absolutely toxic in the B-List and I am steering clear for now. I would love to see the 31 turn it around at Fontana, and then have him with some positive momentum going int Martinsville where he's been strong in the past. I'm also going to wait for Joey Logano to turn this around, this kid can't buy a break it seems but is running a lot stronger than his finishes show.
-Kasey Kahne is really outperforming what I thought this team would have to offer early in the season. This is another driver who I am not afraid to use early as the later season drama of pushing Martin out of his ride could bring both the 4 and 5 teams down. Juan Pablo Montoya made a lot of improvements to his car from practice to the race, but bad luck once again hit the 42 team. Marcos Ambrose is going to get serious sleeper consideration for Fontana after another strong performance in Bristol backed up by his great performance in Vegas.
-I want 36 Paul Menard starts. It's becoming obvious he is, by far, the class of the C-List field. So it's going to come down to when/where you are going to maximize your value out of him. Bobby Labonte really impressed me today and should be a great start-save option going into Martinsville. David Ragan, although not great, was solid all day and came home with a decent finish, which is what that team needed.
I will be posting a Fontana breakdown on Tuesday so check back here for that!
-Kyle Busch had a good car, maybe not even the best car but his driving ability and his pit crew got it done for him when it counted and that was enough for the win.
-Carl Edwards is still red hot, do not be afraid to use up a fair amount of your 99 starts early on here in the season. Edwards is in a contract year, and his FOX Pre-Race interview with DW confirmed what most are saying, he's not signed on the dotted line with Roush. This could be a distraction factor down the stretch. Combine that with guys like Johnson and Hamlin who should be solid picks during the Chase, I am not afraid to continue to ride the Edwards hot streak and burn through his starts.
-Jimmie Johnson is that good. This team was junk in the whopping 6 laps of practice they did on the new compound tire, and he had arguably the best car all day long. I can never argue against starting the 48, but I do believe they are still in a bit of test mode here early on, and with guys like Edwards running great you can afford to push off your 48 starts.
-Ryan Newman continues to be the stud of the B-List. Between his strong runs and great qualifying promise, you're going to almost have to have the 39 on your list at most tracks. But be careful, you want to make sure you maximize your value with Newman starts and don't waste him on a track where he does not have Top 10 potential.
-Likewise I still believe you will get 9 starts out of Clint Bowyer, but this team is really really slow getting out of the box and I would save his starts until some momentum starts to swing his way. Jeff Burton's team devastated what could of been a Top 15 run with a loose wheel early in the race. As I said earlier, this team is absolutely toxic in the B-List and I am steering clear for now. I would love to see the 31 turn it around at Fontana, and then have him with some positive momentum going int Martinsville where he's been strong in the past. I'm also going to wait for Joey Logano to turn this around, this kid can't buy a break it seems but is running a lot stronger than his finishes show.
-Kasey Kahne is really outperforming what I thought this team would have to offer early in the season. This is another driver who I am not afraid to use early as the later season drama of pushing Martin out of his ride could bring both the 4 and 5 teams down. Juan Pablo Montoya made a lot of improvements to his car from practice to the race, but bad luck once again hit the 42 team. Marcos Ambrose is going to get serious sleeper consideration for Fontana after another strong performance in Bristol backed up by his great performance in Vegas.
-I want 36 Paul Menard starts. It's becoming obvious he is, by far, the class of the C-List field. So it's going to come down to when/where you are going to maximize your value out of him. Bobby Labonte really impressed me today and should be a great start-save option going into Martinsville. David Ragan, although not great, was solid all day and came home with a decent finish, which is what that team needed.
I will be posting a Fontana breakdown on Tuesday so check back here for that!
Saturday, March 19, 2011
BRISTOL 1 - Lineup Lockdown
Well it has certainly been an interesting weekend so far in Thunder Valley. The tire fiasco has basically made all of the practice speed charts useless. P1 and P2 were run exclusively on the "old" tire compound, and the final session P3, many teams started the session on the "old" tire compound.
Bottom line, throw away the practice charts. The numbers are so skewed that it is almost impossible to get useful data due to so many different agendas. Plus take a look at the last time they raced here at Bristol:
Kyle Busch, Winner of Race, 20th in Final Practice
David Reutimann, 2nd in Race, 17th in Practice
Jamie McMurray, 3rd, 7th in Practice
Clint Bowyer, 4th, 12th in Practice
Kasey Kahne, 5th, 36th in Practice
I am doing this breakdown a little early, so check back here for potential updates, and also check www.FantasyNascarPreview.com Forum for continuous updates.
With practice being all but useless, we're looking at the following factors for our starting lineup:
1st - Overall Driver Attitude/Feel - Crew Chief Notes and Driver Comments will be released tonight and tomorrow. Most drivers aren't happy, some are miserable, but some drivers are surprisingly satisfied. You definitely don't want to be "lost" on the setup here, because you can go a lap down, quick.
2nd - Loop Data - This tire compound is the same they used in 2010, so last years performance will be key to look at. Still we will factor in the last few years of previous performance to get an overall view of who's been strong here.
3rd - Starting Position / Pit Selection - This track favors a good starting position and a tight pit road means a good pit stall will also keep you out of trouble when it comes to getting on/off the pit lane.
For reference, let's take a look at the Pit Selections for the race:
And we'll take a look at who we have available for our team this week, and their starting position:
Greg Biffle (2nd), Kyle Busch (12th)
Mark Martin (5th), Ryan Newman (21st), Dale Earnhardt Jr (22nd), David Reutimann (26th)
Paul Menard (4th), David Ragan (5th)
A-LIST:
Kyle Busch (9 Starts Remaining) - I'd like to thank Biffle for the qualifying points, but I will be rolling with the Bristol stud and having Rowdy on my starting lineup. Like him or not, this kid can wheel a race car around this track. He was dominate on this tire compound here last year. Busch has a good pit stall, 4th on the front stretch with an easy out with the 36 in Pit Stall 3. I'd start Kyle over any other A-List option here this week.
For the record, I am not worried about a potential engine failure or a retaliation from Edwards. Engine failures here are fairly rare, under 5% and Edwards was even asked point blank during the ESPN Nationwide pre-race about a retaliation and reiterated that the issue from Phoenix is over (both men were seen talking/joking on pit road during Friday practice as well).
Carl Edwards ranks 2nd on my A-Listers, this team is red hot and he's starting on pole and has one of the best pit stalls available. There is no reason this car shouldn't be Top 5 at the end of the day. Denny Hamlin also found the handle on his ride late in the practice session. If you have the choice between Hamlin/Edwards, I'd actually start Hamlin and save Edwards for the 1.5 mile tracks as I think Hamlin should also be right around the Top 5. Hamlin got a great pit selection in between the 92 and 60 who will be non-factors.
Jimmie Johnson is not a bad start option here. This race is going to come down to engineers and crew chiefs getting it right from the start of the race, and there is no better team than the 48 when it comes to this style of race. Johnson has a good starting position and good pit stall. Johnson was strong here last year on this tire combination (before getting caught up in a wreck), you can start the 48 with confidence.
Greg Biffle's flat tire in practice did not allow this team to get a good handle on what they needed (they struggled before the flat). Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth, and Tony Stewart were all not satisfied with their cars on the new tire as well. Kurt Busch has done nothing to impress this weekend either, and with a bad starting position you can get more value out of other A-List options.
B-LIST:
Mark Martin (9 Starts Remaining) - Mark Martin was very happy with his car on the new compound tire, which was rare when looking up and down pit road after the final session. Martin has a great track record here, and has decent starting position. I look for Martin to run inside or around the Top 10 all day, my only fear is that he doesn't close the deal, but he has the most potential out of any B-Lister I see so he has to get a start here.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. * (9 Starts Remaining) - I am putting the * asterik next to Earnhardt Jr because I am not 100% sold on this decision yet, but for the purpose of this blog, my lineup right now has the 88 in there. Junior is pretty happy with his car (which is rare) and has a great track record here. He's come from deep in the field here before so his 22nd starting position does not worry me as much as it should. He also has a great pit selection between the 66 and the 37 who should be non-factors.
I really need to hear from David Reutimann and his team on how his car is handling before I make my final decision. Reutimann was really strong here last year on this tire compound, but he starts the deepest of any of my B-List drivers, and is wedged between the 22 and 83 on pit road. The risk with Reutimann is if he is not dead on the setup early, he could go a lap down.
I have Junior and Ryan Newman basically tied for the 2nd/3rd best car on the B-List (not considering ranking Reutimann just yet). Newman is also happy on the new compound tires, the only factor I am thinking about is using all 9 of Newman's starts this year, no way you use 9 Earnhardt Jr starts. So this would be a good place to save Newman if he's on-par with Junior.
Martin Truex Jr. is another surprise who seems to be satisfied with his race car going into the event and he's got good starting position. Truex previous record here isn't all that impressive however. Kasey Kahne has been a bit of a surprise this weekend and could be Top 10 potential by the end of the day, riding the momentum of a good Nationwide finish. Marcos Ambrose has been decent, but not spectacular, he ranks right behind Kahne for me on the rankings.
Jeff Burton looks decent in practice, but we've seen that almost everywhere this year so I am just not sold on the 31. Again, this would be an excellent track for the 31 to get things turned around, but Bowyer and Harvick are struggle and Menard is running decent, RCR as a whole is just too up-and-down for me to risk another Burton start. Clint Bowyer is not happy with his ride and starts deep in the field, I'd save him for a better day. Juan Pablo Montoya is another driver who hasn't had much luck finding the handle on his car. I think he'll improve during the race but I would not risk starting the 42 with his poor pit stall and 36th starting position.
C-LIST:
Paul Menard (9 Starts Remaining) - I really wanted to get a start out of Ragan here, but after practice I just can not ignore the 27 any longer. Menard is happy with his setup on the new tires, great starting position and has all the confidence in the world in his team. Somehow he seems to still be riding a momentum high and I'm jumping on the bandwagon this week.
Regan Smith has been the driver who has outperformed all expectations this week. Regan himself even admitted this is one of his worst tracks, but he's a solid start option if you have him available. I'd start Regan over Menard if you have the option and save Menard for 1.5 tracks.
David Ragan ranks in 3rd due to good starting position and a decent race car, but not as good as Menard or Smith. Ragan has not been able to close the deal all year long and we'll see if he can finally get some confidence built up here at Bristol.
I'd rank Bobby Labonte just ahead of Trevor Bayne. This track is so tough on rookies and Bayne had another rough day in the Nationwide series. Meanwhile Labonte seems average but solid with his car this weekend, and could eek out a Top 20 finish.
As always, check www.FantasyNascarPreview.com Forum for up-to-date information, and their expert Live Chat at 11 AM EST, immediatly followed by our live chat at Noon EST (check yahoo message board for link).
Bottom line, throw away the practice charts. The numbers are so skewed that it is almost impossible to get useful data due to so many different agendas. Plus take a look at the last time they raced here at Bristol:
Kyle Busch, Winner of Race, 20th in Final Practice
David Reutimann, 2nd in Race, 17th in Practice
Jamie McMurray, 3rd, 7th in Practice
Clint Bowyer, 4th, 12th in Practice
Kasey Kahne, 5th, 36th in Practice
I am doing this breakdown a little early, so check back here for potential updates, and also check www.FantasyNascarPreview.com Forum for continuous updates.
With practice being all but useless, we're looking at the following factors for our starting lineup:
1st - Overall Driver Attitude/Feel - Crew Chief Notes and Driver Comments will be released tonight and tomorrow. Most drivers aren't happy, some are miserable, but some drivers are surprisingly satisfied. You definitely don't want to be "lost" on the setup here, because you can go a lap down, quick.
2nd - Loop Data - This tire compound is the same they used in 2010, so last years performance will be key to look at. Still we will factor in the last few years of previous performance to get an overall view of who's been strong here.
3rd - Starting Position / Pit Selection - This track favors a good starting position and a tight pit road means a good pit stall will also keep you out of trouble when it comes to getting on/off the pit lane.
For reference, let's take a look at the Pit Selections for the race:
And we'll take a look at who we have available for our team this week, and their starting position:
Greg Biffle (2nd), Kyle Busch (12th)
Mark Martin (5th), Ryan Newman (21st), Dale Earnhardt Jr (22nd), David Reutimann (26th)
Paul Menard (4th), David Ragan (5th)
A-LIST:
Kyle Busch (9 Starts Remaining) - I'd like to thank Biffle for the qualifying points, but I will be rolling with the Bristol stud and having Rowdy on my starting lineup. Like him or not, this kid can wheel a race car around this track. He was dominate on this tire compound here last year. Busch has a good pit stall, 4th on the front stretch with an easy out with the 36 in Pit Stall 3. I'd start Kyle over any other A-List option here this week.
For the record, I am not worried about a potential engine failure or a retaliation from Edwards. Engine failures here are fairly rare, under 5% and Edwards was even asked point blank during the ESPN Nationwide pre-race about a retaliation and reiterated that the issue from Phoenix is over (both men were seen talking/joking on pit road during Friday practice as well).
Carl Edwards ranks 2nd on my A-Listers, this team is red hot and he's starting on pole and has one of the best pit stalls available. There is no reason this car shouldn't be Top 5 at the end of the day. Denny Hamlin also found the handle on his ride late in the practice session. If you have the choice between Hamlin/Edwards, I'd actually start Hamlin and save Edwards for the 1.5 mile tracks as I think Hamlin should also be right around the Top 5. Hamlin got a great pit selection in between the 92 and 60 who will be non-factors.
Jimmie Johnson is not a bad start option here. This race is going to come down to engineers and crew chiefs getting it right from the start of the race, and there is no better team than the 48 when it comes to this style of race. Johnson has a good starting position and good pit stall. Johnson was strong here last year on this tire combination (before getting caught up in a wreck), you can start the 48 with confidence.
Greg Biffle's flat tire in practice did not allow this team to get a good handle on what they needed (they struggled before the flat). Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth, and Tony Stewart were all not satisfied with their cars on the new tire as well. Kurt Busch has done nothing to impress this weekend either, and with a bad starting position you can get more value out of other A-List options.
B-LIST:
Mark Martin (9 Starts Remaining) - Mark Martin was very happy with his car on the new compound tire, which was rare when looking up and down pit road after the final session. Martin has a great track record here, and has decent starting position. I look for Martin to run inside or around the Top 10 all day, my only fear is that he doesn't close the deal, but he has the most potential out of any B-Lister I see so he has to get a start here.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. * (9 Starts Remaining) - I am putting the * asterik next to Earnhardt Jr because I am not 100% sold on this decision yet, but for the purpose of this blog, my lineup right now has the 88 in there. Junior is pretty happy with his car (which is rare) and has a great track record here. He's come from deep in the field here before so his 22nd starting position does not worry me as much as it should. He also has a great pit selection between the 66 and the 37 who should be non-factors.
I really need to hear from David Reutimann and his team on how his car is handling before I make my final decision. Reutimann was really strong here last year on this tire compound, but he starts the deepest of any of my B-List drivers, and is wedged between the 22 and 83 on pit road. The risk with Reutimann is if he is not dead on the setup early, he could go a lap down.
I have Junior and Ryan Newman basically tied for the 2nd/3rd best car on the B-List (not considering ranking Reutimann just yet). Newman is also happy on the new compound tires, the only factor I am thinking about is using all 9 of Newman's starts this year, no way you use 9 Earnhardt Jr starts. So this would be a good place to save Newman if he's on-par with Junior.
Martin Truex Jr. is another surprise who seems to be satisfied with his race car going into the event and he's got good starting position. Truex previous record here isn't all that impressive however. Kasey Kahne has been a bit of a surprise this weekend and could be Top 10 potential by the end of the day, riding the momentum of a good Nationwide finish. Marcos Ambrose has been decent, but not spectacular, he ranks right behind Kahne for me on the rankings.
Jeff Burton looks decent in practice, but we've seen that almost everywhere this year so I am just not sold on the 31. Again, this would be an excellent track for the 31 to get things turned around, but Bowyer and Harvick are struggle and Menard is running decent, RCR as a whole is just too up-and-down for me to risk another Burton start. Clint Bowyer is not happy with his ride and starts deep in the field, I'd save him for a better day. Juan Pablo Montoya is another driver who hasn't had much luck finding the handle on his car. I think he'll improve during the race but I would not risk starting the 42 with his poor pit stall and 36th starting position.
C-LIST:
Paul Menard (9 Starts Remaining) - I really wanted to get a start out of Ragan here, but after practice I just can not ignore the 27 any longer. Menard is happy with his setup on the new tires, great starting position and has all the confidence in the world in his team. Somehow he seems to still be riding a momentum high and I'm jumping on the bandwagon this week.
Regan Smith has been the driver who has outperformed all expectations this week. Regan himself even admitted this is one of his worst tracks, but he's a solid start option if you have him available. I'd start Regan over Menard if you have the option and save Menard for 1.5 tracks.
David Ragan ranks in 3rd due to good starting position and a decent race car, but not as good as Menard or Smith. Ragan has not been able to close the deal all year long and we'll see if he can finally get some confidence built up here at Bristol.
I'd rank Bobby Labonte just ahead of Trevor Bayne. This track is so tough on rookies and Bayne had another rough day in the Nationwide series. Meanwhile Labonte seems average but solid with his car this weekend, and could eek out a Top 20 finish.
As always, check www.FantasyNascarPreview.com Forum for up-to-date information, and their expert Live Chat at 11 AM EST, immediatly followed by our live chat at Noon EST (check yahoo message board for link).
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
BRISTOL 1 - Lineup Posted
After a review of the data and discussion with the experts at Fantasy Nascar Preview we're going with the following 8 bullets in our Bristol gun:
A-LIST:
Kyle Busch (9 Starts Remaining) - It doesn't get any easier than this, Kyle Busch, by far, is the best driver in the A-List statistically and has won 3 of the last 4 in Bristol. A few people have pondered if this is the track Carl Edwards gets his revenge for the Phoenix wreck. It's nearly impossible to predict payback, and outside of Kyle/Carl getting into it in the Nationwide race Saturday, I wouldn't worry about payback.
Greg Biffle (9 Starts Remaining) - Biffle is a great start-save option who could also potentially nab you qualifying points. Minus a blown engine in 2009, Biffle ranks well up the A-List in the statistics category, and I think the week off will help squash the bad momentum from Las Vegas (that and the new gasman on the 16 team).
Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards just miss the lineup for me. A lot of people are riding the momentum of Stewart off of Las Vegas, but I think the week off really does derail any momentum gained. Factor that in with Stewart's up-and-down trends at Bristol and the 14 barely misses my lineup. Edwards I've already used twice this season, and I can easily see using the remaining 7 starts on larger tracks. Edwards is good here, but no need to waste a 99 start on a risky track.
B-LIST:
Ryan Newman (9 Starts Remaining) - Qualifying is always important here at Bristol, so who better to put in your lineup than the 39. Newman has a great season going, especially for a team who usually starts off slow. He's been consistent all year as well, which I really like. Add that onto his fairly impressive numbers for B-List drivers here at Bristol, and there is no doubt the 39 will get heavy consideration for a start here.
Mark Martin (9 Starts Remaining) - Can't think of a better track to use the "Start Mark Martin Early" theory. Martin has the 2nd best statistics overall behind Kyle Busch. Martin leads B-List drivers in % of Laps in the Top 15, which is telling that some of his poorer finishes were due to late race bad luck. Martin is also known for ripping off a good qualifying lap as well, so the 5 also gets consideration for his first start of the year.
David Reutimann (9 Starts Remaining) - I'm big on the 00 this week. His car was outstanding in both races here last year and this is the kind of track the Reutimann family grew up racing on. MWR is performing well as an organization and I will be looking at a great start-save potential in Rooootimann.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (9 Starts Remaining) - This pick kind of goes against my "no momentum carries through the off week" theory, but Junior is one of the more "streaky" drivers on the circuit. When he has some good finishes, he tends to carry that momentum through a few more races (and vice versa, when things go bad, they get worse for the 88). Statistically this is Juniors best track, so this pick is a "why not"/start-save option to round out my B-List. I have a lot of confidence in the other 3 B-Listers, so Junior is my wild card that might surprise me and get a start.
Clint Bowyer is due for a good run, and that good run could come here at Bristol, but I am still on ultra-conservative mode with the 33. RCR has a whole is off to a slow start, and I need 9 for-sure quality starts out of Bowyer. The 33 team is always good on the flat tracks and I think they will improve on the 1.5 mile tracks as the season plays on. I'm saving the 33 again this week.
I'm also off the Jeff Burton bandwagon as well. I've used 2 starts with Burton already and I don't believe I will get 9 starts out of this team this year, so I can afford to bench Burton for this week. This team may, finally, get it turned around here at Bristol, but I'm in a deep hole thanks to devastating Daytona and Phoenix finishes, and I can't afford another sub-par Burton run right now. Even if Burton does get it turned around here, this is another "streaky" driver and he will be a guy you can jump back on the bandwagon after he notches that first solid finish.
Marcos Ambrose and Juan Pablo Montoya are popping up as deeper sleepers on a few lineups. Hard to argue these guys have momentum and can lay down good qualifying performances, but to me there are better/more solid options in the B-List this week.
C-LIST:
Paul Menard (9 Starts Remaining) - I would love to save my Menard starts for the 1.5 mile tracks, but this team is red hot, and his stats here at Bristol are better than the other C-List drivers (but not by much). I can't save the 27 any longer, he at least gets on the roster this week.
David Ragan (8 Starts Remaining) - This spot could be a toss up between David Ragan and Bobby Labonte. Neither driver is all that impressive here, and this would be a good track to sneak a Labonte start-save at. But even in decent equipment Labonte's stats rank behind Ragan. Add in Ragan's Nationwide win in 2009, and the fact that I want to burn Ragan starts as fast as I can, I'm giving my 2nd C-List spot to the UPS ride.
I'm staying away from Regan Smith and Trevor Bayne here. This is a terrible track for Regan statistically, and this team is stepping up their program across the board so I think you can easily get better value out of the 78 elsewhere on the schedule. This track is also notoriously tough on rookies, so Bayne is on the bench. Even in a recent interview on SPEED.com Bayne admits he has no idea what he's going to do going into Bristol, and that he's just going to try to survive.
As always, check back on Saturday after the practices and qualifying sessions are complete for our practice breakdown and our final starting lineup. And don't miss the live chat with the experts at Fantasy Nascar Preview on Sunday morning, followed by our own live chat that takes you all the way up to the green flag.
A-LIST:
Kyle Busch (9 Starts Remaining) - It doesn't get any easier than this, Kyle Busch, by far, is the best driver in the A-List statistically and has won 3 of the last 4 in Bristol. A few people have pondered if this is the track Carl Edwards gets his revenge for the Phoenix wreck. It's nearly impossible to predict payback, and outside of Kyle/Carl getting into it in the Nationwide race Saturday, I wouldn't worry about payback.
Greg Biffle (9 Starts Remaining) - Biffle is a great start-save option who could also potentially nab you qualifying points. Minus a blown engine in 2009, Biffle ranks well up the A-List in the statistics category, and I think the week off will help squash the bad momentum from Las Vegas (that and the new gasman on the 16 team).
Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards just miss the lineup for me. A lot of people are riding the momentum of Stewart off of Las Vegas, but I think the week off really does derail any momentum gained. Factor that in with Stewart's up-and-down trends at Bristol and the 14 barely misses my lineup. Edwards I've already used twice this season, and I can easily see using the remaining 7 starts on larger tracks. Edwards is good here, but no need to waste a 99 start on a risky track.
B-LIST:
Ryan Newman (9 Starts Remaining) - Qualifying is always important here at Bristol, so who better to put in your lineup than the 39. Newman has a great season going, especially for a team who usually starts off slow. He's been consistent all year as well, which I really like. Add that onto his fairly impressive numbers for B-List drivers here at Bristol, and there is no doubt the 39 will get heavy consideration for a start here.
Mark Martin (9 Starts Remaining) - Can't think of a better track to use the "Start Mark Martin Early" theory. Martin has the 2nd best statistics overall behind Kyle Busch. Martin leads B-List drivers in % of Laps in the Top 15, which is telling that some of his poorer finishes were due to late race bad luck. Martin is also known for ripping off a good qualifying lap as well, so the 5 also gets consideration for his first start of the year.
David Reutimann (9 Starts Remaining) - I'm big on the 00 this week. His car was outstanding in both races here last year and this is the kind of track the Reutimann family grew up racing on. MWR is performing well as an organization and I will be looking at a great start-save potential in Rooootimann.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (9 Starts Remaining) - This pick kind of goes against my "no momentum carries through the off week" theory, but Junior is one of the more "streaky" drivers on the circuit. When he has some good finishes, he tends to carry that momentum through a few more races (and vice versa, when things go bad, they get worse for the 88). Statistically this is Juniors best track, so this pick is a "why not"/start-save option to round out my B-List. I have a lot of confidence in the other 3 B-Listers, so Junior is my wild card that might surprise me and get a start.
Clint Bowyer is due for a good run, and that good run could come here at Bristol, but I am still on ultra-conservative mode with the 33. RCR has a whole is off to a slow start, and I need 9 for-sure quality starts out of Bowyer. The 33 team is always good on the flat tracks and I think they will improve on the 1.5 mile tracks as the season plays on. I'm saving the 33 again this week.
I'm also off the Jeff Burton bandwagon as well. I've used 2 starts with Burton already and I don't believe I will get 9 starts out of this team this year, so I can afford to bench Burton for this week. This team may, finally, get it turned around here at Bristol, but I'm in a deep hole thanks to devastating Daytona and Phoenix finishes, and I can't afford another sub-par Burton run right now. Even if Burton does get it turned around here, this is another "streaky" driver and he will be a guy you can jump back on the bandwagon after he notches that first solid finish.
Marcos Ambrose and Juan Pablo Montoya are popping up as deeper sleepers on a few lineups. Hard to argue these guys have momentum and can lay down good qualifying performances, but to me there are better/more solid options in the B-List this week.
C-LIST:
Paul Menard (9 Starts Remaining) - I would love to save my Menard starts for the 1.5 mile tracks, but this team is red hot, and his stats here at Bristol are better than the other C-List drivers (but not by much). I can't save the 27 any longer, he at least gets on the roster this week.
David Ragan (8 Starts Remaining) - This spot could be a toss up between David Ragan and Bobby Labonte. Neither driver is all that impressive here, and this would be a good track to sneak a Labonte start-save at. But even in decent equipment Labonte's stats rank behind Ragan. Add in Ragan's Nationwide win in 2009, and the fact that I want to burn Ragan starts as fast as I can, I'm giving my 2nd C-List spot to the UPS ride.
I'm staying away from Regan Smith and Trevor Bayne here. This is a terrible track for Regan statistically, and this team is stepping up their program across the board so I think you can easily get better value out of the 78 elsewhere on the schedule. This track is also notoriously tough on rookies, so Bayne is on the bench. Even in a recent interview on SPEED.com Bayne admits he has no idea what he's going to do going into Bristol, and that he's just going to try to survive.
As always, check back on Saturday after the practices and qualifying sessions are complete for our practice breakdown and our final starting lineup. And don't miss the live chat with the experts at Fantasy Nascar Preview on Sunday morning, followed by our own live chat that takes you all the way up to the green flag.
Thursday, March 10, 2011
BRISTOL 1 - Loop Data & Preview
We've got a week off for NSCS, but this gives us plenty of time to look at the loop data going into Bristol:
Let's first take a look at the last 4 years (8 races) at Bristol, as always, this takes into account all the COT races:
AVERAGE FINISH:
A-List:
Ky. Busch - 5th
Edwards - 10th
Biffle - 11th
Gordon - 11th
B-List:
Earnhardt Jr. - 10th
Bowyer - 12th
Burton - 14th
Newman - 15th
Keselowski - 17th
Martin - 17th
Ambrose - 18th
Kahne - 18th
C-List:
Menard - 23rd
Kvapil - 23rd
Ragan - 25th
Labonte - 26th
% of LAPS in TOP 15:
A-List:
Biffle - 81%
Gordon - 78%
Ky. Busch - 76%
Edwards - 74%
B-List:
Martin - 72%
Newman - 67%
Bowyer - 67%
Burton - 63%
Ambrose - 62%
Montoya - 56%
Reutimann - 55%
Earnhardt Jr. - 53%
C-List:
Elliott - 22%
Menard - 20%
Smith - 15%
Labonte - 14%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Ky. Busch - 117.7
Edwards - 97.2
Biffle - 96.9
Ku. Busch - 96.1
B-List:
Martin - 100.1
Bowyer - 91.1
Newman - 90.4
Kahne - 88.1
Ambrose - 86.9
Reutimann - 86.7
Burton - 86.3
Earnhardt Jr. - 85.1
C-List:
Menard - 61.6
Elliott - 60.4
Ragan - 59.3
Smith - 55.5
When you look at stats from a track like Bristol, you have to pay close attention to the results, as often guys with good race cars got a DNF for something out of their control.
Fall 2010:
Johnson - 35th (Crash)
Hamlin - 34th (Crash Damage)
Although Johnson is improving at Bristol, and had a good car in the last race here, I still would not use a Johnson start here given the "wild card" factor.
Spring 2010:
Bowyer - 40th (Engine)
Reutimann - 38th (Engine)
Both of these drivers had strong machines, running inside the Top 5 and Top 10 before their failures.
Fall 2009:
Harvick - 38th (Crash)
Logano - 34th
Harvick crashed out of the 2009 race but was only running fair, there are better options in the A-List. Add Fall of 09 to Logano's multiple bad finishes here, most of them were out of his control with crash damage or engine failures, Logano runs much better than his numbers show, but I don't feel like he's a starter this week.
Spring 2009:
Biffle - 39th (Engine)
Logano - 38th (Engine)
Biffle lost an engine on Lap 326 here in 2009, skewing what are pretty impressive stats for Biffle who was running well in this race before the failure.
Fall 2008:
Burton - 42nd (Crash)
Kahne - 40th (Crash)
Both of these guys were running around the Top 10 when a major crash took out a good chunk of the field, both of these guys got the worst of the crash and finished way down in the order.
Spring 2008:
No one of note had a poor day, surprisingly clean race.
So who should you be narrowing your list down to, our opinion mixed in with other expert opinions and current momentum:
A-LIST:
Kyle Busch - LOCK
Greg Biffle
Carl Edwards
Kurt Busch
Tony Stewart
Kyle Busch is the only A-List driver who I consider an absolute lock for your Bristol team. His overall driver ranking tells the tale, I don't think you'll see another track where 1 A-List driver is 20 points ahead of the 2nd place A-Lister. Kyle has led 5x as many laps as his next closest competitor and has an average finish of 5th.
Early thoughts have me leaning Greg Biffle as the man to pair with Kyle. Even though his team had a devastating week, his numbers are impressive here and I think the momentum of Roush as a whole will carry this team to another solid run. Some argue you need Carl Edwards here riding his hot streak and his "Concrete Carl" results in the past, but all streaks come to an end, and simple wild card Bristol could derail the streak. I feel you can get better/more consistent value out of him on the larger tracks.
If you want to start save and don't want to use Biffle after a bad run in Vegas, Kurt Busch could be your man this week. Somewhat quietly this team is putting up consistent finishes week after week. Kurt has slow momentum building, but momentum none-the-less. Tony Stewart is on a lot of people's short list as well because of a stellar run at Vegas, but his numbers here are all over the place. 500+ laps led, but also 55% of the time in the Top 15. Stewart is a risk play as he could be really good or really bad at Bristol.
B-LIST:
Ryan Newman - LOCK
David Reutimann
Mark Martin
Clint Bowyer
Dale Earnhadt Jr.
Marcos Ambrose
Jeff Burton
Ryan Newman is my lock on the B-List. This team is on a decent roll and his stats here rank in the upper levels of the B-List drivers in all categories. Coupled with the fact that qualifying and pit selection is important here I am placing Newman on my Bristol team without question.
Same line of thinking has my interest peaked on Mark Martin, his average start here is better than anyone else with a 7th place average, 2nd of all drivers in overall Driving Rating as well (only driver above a 100 rating with Kyle Busch). I'm not big on Hendrick right now as a whole so current momentum has me a touch worried on Martin, but he's close to a lock for the 2nd spot on my B-List.
I'm also high on David Reutimann, he has had a Top 5 car here in both races in 2010, but blew a motor in the spring race dropping his numbers way down. In the fall race last year Reutimann didn't even practice his car due to illness, strapped in for qualifying and the race and did exceptionally well. MWR is performing well as an organization as well.
To me, things get a little more difficult around the 4th spot on the B-List. Clint Bowyer is a good safety pick, he's 2nd in overall driver rating even with the blown engine in the Spring 2010 event. I continue to hold back on my Bowyer starts, and with RCR off to a somewhat slow start I may continue to wait for things to heat up before I roll out a Bowyer start.
Many people are riding the momentum of Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Marcos Ambrose. Junior is the safer start here, this is his 2nd-best track statistically, so if you're going to use the 88 on more than the plate tracks, this would be the time use him. Ambrose was pretty sporty on the short tracks as whole last year, especially in qualifying, plus his current momentum have some people reaching for wild car value with Taz.
Personally I am staying away from Jeff Burton. It depends on how you've used your Burton starts already. I don't think he's a 9 start driver anymore, and if you've already used up some starts with the 31 (I've used him 2 times already) then it's a good time to let him sit and get his team turned around. If you haven't used a Burton start yet, he could make your team with his previous track record here being fairly decent, if he's going to get this team turned around, Bristol has a higher probability of being that track compared to the other races coming up.
C-List:
Paul Menard
David Ragan
Bobby Labonte
Regan Smith
Trevor Bayne
No one in the C-List really sticks out from the crowd, so I am going safety picks here. Although I would like to save Paul Menard for 1.5 mile tracks, he's the stastical best driver available here at Bristol, and with his momentum you can roll a Menard start out here with confidence. With Trevor Bayne looking like a solid option on 1.5 tracks as well, you can get value out of Menard here and still have a solid 1.5 team down the road.
David Ragan gets consideration purely because we need to continue to burn starts with him. He does have a Nationwide win here in 2009 and if I see a good qualifying run and decent practice numbers I will consider getting another Ragan start out of the way.
Bobby Labonte could be a potential start-saver, but I doubt it. His numbers here are really not that impressive, even when he had decent quality equipment under him. He's got experience and a 47 team that was good with Ambrose behind the wheel, and that's about it.
You can definitely get better value out of Regan Smith elsewhere, his numbers here are just about as bad as your going to find on Regan. Bristol is also notorious for chewing up rookies, so I am staying away from Trevor Bayne and using him on larger tracks.
Let's first take a look at the last 4 years (8 races) at Bristol, as always, this takes into account all the COT races:
AVERAGE FINISH:
A-List:
Ky. Busch - 5th
Edwards - 10th
Biffle - 11th
Gordon - 11th
B-List:
Earnhardt Jr. - 10th
Bowyer - 12th
Burton - 14th
Newman - 15th
Keselowski - 17th
Martin - 17th
Ambrose - 18th
Kahne - 18th
C-List:
Menard - 23rd
Kvapil - 23rd
Ragan - 25th
Labonte - 26th
% of LAPS in TOP 15:
A-List:
Biffle - 81%
Gordon - 78%
Ky. Busch - 76%
Edwards - 74%
B-List:
Martin - 72%
Newman - 67%
Bowyer - 67%
Burton - 63%
Ambrose - 62%
Montoya - 56%
Reutimann - 55%
Earnhardt Jr. - 53%
C-List:
Elliott - 22%
Menard - 20%
Smith - 15%
Labonte - 14%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Ky. Busch - 117.7
Edwards - 97.2
Biffle - 96.9
Ku. Busch - 96.1
B-List:
Martin - 100.1
Bowyer - 91.1
Newman - 90.4
Kahne - 88.1
Ambrose - 86.9
Reutimann - 86.7
Burton - 86.3
Earnhardt Jr. - 85.1
C-List:
Menard - 61.6
Elliott - 60.4
Ragan - 59.3
Smith - 55.5
When you look at stats from a track like Bristol, you have to pay close attention to the results, as often guys with good race cars got a DNF for something out of their control.
Fall 2010:
Johnson - 35th (Crash)
Hamlin - 34th (Crash Damage)
Although Johnson is improving at Bristol, and had a good car in the last race here, I still would not use a Johnson start here given the "wild card" factor.
Spring 2010:
Bowyer - 40th (Engine)
Reutimann - 38th (Engine)
Both of these drivers had strong machines, running inside the Top 5 and Top 10 before their failures.
Fall 2009:
Harvick - 38th (Crash)
Logano - 34th
Harvick crashed out of the 2009 race but was only running fair, there are better options in the A-List. Add Fall of 09 to Logano's multiple bad finishes here, most of them were out of his control with crash damage or engine failures, Logano runs much better than his numbers show, but I don't feel like he's a starter this week.
Spring 2009:
Biffle - 39th (Engine)
Logano - 38th (Engine)
Biffle lost an engine on Lap 326 here in 2009, skewing what are pretty impressive stats for Biffle who was running well in this race before the failure.
Fall 2008:
Burton - 42nd (Crash)
Kahne - 40th (Crash)
Both of these guys were running around the Top 10 when a major crash took out a good chunk of the field, both of these guys got the worst of the crash and finished way down in the order.
Spring 2008:
No one of note had a poor day, surprisingly clean race.
So who should you be narrowing your list down to, our opinion mixed in with other expert opinions and current momentum:
A-LIST:
Kyle Busch - LOCK
Greg Biffle
Carl Edwards
Kurt Busch
Tony Stewart
Kyle Busch is the only A-List driver who I consider an absolute lock for your Bristol team. His overall driver ranking tells the tale, I don't think you'll see another track where 1 A-List driver is 20 points ahead of the 2nd place A-Lister. Kyle has led 5x as many laps as his next closest competitor and has an average finish of 5th.
Early thoughts have me leaning Greg Biffle as the man to pair with Kyle. Even though his team had a devastating week, his numbers are impressive here and I think the momentum of Roush as a whole will carry this team to another solid run. Some argue you need Carl Edwards here riding his hot streak and his "Concrete Carl" results in the past, but all streaks come to an end, and simple wild card Bristol could derail the streak. I feel you can get better/more consistent value out of him on the larger tracks.
If you want to start save and don't want to use Biffle after a bad run in Vegas, Kurt Busch could be your man this week. Somewhat quietly this team is putting up consistent finishes week after week. Kurt has slow momentum building, but momentum none-the-less. Tony Stewart is on a lot of people's short list as well because of a stellar run at Vegas, but his numbers here are all over the place. 500+ laps led, but also 55% of the time in the Top 15. Stewart is a risk play as he could be really good or really bad at Bristol.
B-LIST:
Ryan Newman - LOCK
David Reutimann
Mark Martin
Clint Bowyer
Dale Earnhadt Jr.
Marcos Ambrose
Jeff Burton
Ryan Newman is my lock on the B-List. This team is on a decent roll and his stats here rank in the upper levels of the B-List drivers in all categories. Coupled with the fact that qualifying and pit selection is important here I am placing Newman on my Bristol team without question.
Same line of thinking has my interest peaked on Mark Martin, his average start here is better than anyone else with a 7th place average, 2nd of all drivers in overall Driving Rating as well (only driver above a 100 rating with Kyle Busch). I'm not big on Hendrick right now as a whole so current momentum has me a touch worried on Martin, but he's close to a lock for the 2nd spot on my B-List.
I'm also high on David Reutimann, he has had a Top 5 car here in both races in 2010, but blew a motor in the spring race dropping his numbers way down. In the fall race last year Reutimann didn't even practice his car due to illness, strapped in for qualifying and the race and did exceptionally well. MWR is performing well as an organization as well.
To me, things get a little more difficult around the 4th spot on the B-List. Clint Bowyer is a good safety pick, he's 2nd in overall driver rating even with the blown engine in the Spring 2010 event. I continue to hold back on my Bowyer starts, and with RCR off to a somewhat slow start I may continue to wait for things to heat up before I roll out a Bowyer start.
Many people are riding the momentum of Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Marcos Ambrose. Junior is the safer start here, this is his 2nd-best track statistically, so if you're going to use the 88 on more than the plate tracks, this would be the time use him. Ambrose was pretty sporty on the short tracks as whole last year, especially in qualifying, plus his current momentum have some people reaching for wild car value with Taz.
Personally I am staying away from Jeff Burton. It depends on how you've used your Burton starts already. I don't think he's a 9 start driver anymore, and if you've already used up some starts with the 31 (I've used him 2 times already) then it's a good time to let him sit and get his team turned around. If you haven't used a Burton start yet, he could make your team with his previous track record here being fairly decent, if he's going to get this team turned around, Bristol has a higher probability of being that track compared to the other races coming up.
C-List:
Paul Menard
David Ragan
Bobby Labonte
Regan Smith
Trevor Bayne
No one in the C-List really sticks out from the crowd, so I am going safety picks here. Although I would like to save Paul Menard for 1.5 mile tracks, he's the stastical best driver available here at Bristol, and with his momentum you can roll a Menard start out here with confidence. With Trevor Bayne looking like a solid option on 1.5 tracks as well, you can get value out of Menard here and still have a solid 1.5 team down the road.
David Ragan gets consideration purely because we need to continue to burn starts with him. He does have a Nationwide win here in 2009 and if I see a good qualifying run and decent practice numbers I will consider getting another Ragan start out of the way.
Bobby Labonte could be a potential start-saver, but I doubt it. His numbers here are really not that impressive, even when he had decent quality equipment under him. He's got experience and a 47 team that was good with Ambrose behind the wheel, and that's about it.
You can definitely get better value out of Regan Smith elsewhere, his numbers here are just about as bad as your going to find on Regan. Bristol is also notorious for chewing up rookies, so I am staying away from Trevor Bayne and using him on larger tracks.
Monday, March 7, 2011
LAS VEGAS - Wrap Up
It was a day of surprises for sure in Sin City, some unfamiliar names at the front of the field took all the experts by surprise:
A-LIST:
We picked our first race winner of the year, starting Carl Edwards in our A-List. This team is about as hot as it gets in NASCAR, 2nd at Daytona, what should of been a win in Phoenix, and a win in Vegas (add that to the 2 wins from the end of 2010). Now we're not ready to de-throne the 48 just yet, but I do suggest you use your Edwards starts while Roush has the upper hand.
Technically, Tony Stewart was your best pick this week in the A-List, grabbing those most laps led bonus points. Stewart flew a bit under the radar to most of the experts all week and didn't show that much in practice, making only short runs. Early Pit Strategy and clean air really made his car look sharp. We'll have an eye on him when it comes to some of the "sweeping" 1.5 mile tracks upcoming (Kansas, Chicago, ect.)
Couple of people in the live chat asked me Kyle Busch or Jeff Gordon as their starter this week. I said Busch which was the correct pick as Kyle had a Top 5 day going until his troubles hit. Gordon didn't fair much better, and was destined to be a Top 10 car until the tire failure bit him. Gordon was the biggest disappointment of the weekend, the team never found the handling of the car and although he improved before his wreck, it was a far cry from his dominance here a year ago.
Do not be afraid to load up on Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth early in the season as well. Kenseth was in line for his typical Top 10 with Top 5 potential day, Biffle had a potential race winner if it wasn't for terrible gaffe's on pit road (which I am sure will be addressed during this off weekend). Both Biffle and Kenseth were very strong at Texas 2 last season and I expect the Ford's to shine at Fontana, especially if the weather is warm.
I'm saving my Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin starts for a bit later down the line, Johnson has openly admitted he's testing some different things in the beginning part of the season. Pile that on top of Hendrick's performance overall looking a bit lack-luster and the late-season charge the 48 seems to make, I'm saving Johnson for the latter part of the year. Hamlin and Joe Gibbs Racing will need to prove themselves a little to me on the larger tracks before I start them, especially with engine reliability. I would not shy away from JGR at Bristol because of reliability issues however.
B-LIST:
Our picks ended up poorly here with Jeff Burton and Joey Logano, especially frustrating to burn 2 Logano starts in a row with poor finishes. Logano did turn the corner this weekend and showed why you'll be using darn near all 9 starts out of him, again I'd like to see a little more from JGR on the big tracks before I burn my 3rd Logano start.
Jeff Burton might be done for the year, which is a stunner. This team simply can not get out of the hole they've dug themselves into. It just looked like a complete lack of effort yesterday on track, clean air was key and the team never gave Burton a chance to get some of it with pit strategy. The car was decent but it never moved through the field thanks to the dreaded return of aero-push (more on that subject later). I suspected this downward spiral would happen later in the year, but it's here now, and Burton is a toxic commodity on the B-List. I'm staying away until some stroke of good luck appears.
Richard Petty Motorsports is for real, which is a huge shock to me as I thought they would be god awful this season. Coupled with the Ford's strength I am buying into A.J. Allmendinger and Marcos Ambrose, these guys were strong all weekend long. Allmendinger got trapped mid pack and could never recover due to the aero-push yesterday.
I'm not sold on Juan Pablo Montoya and Earnhardt Ganassi just yet. Even by Juan and his crew chief's admission, they had an "ok mid pack" car going into the race. They played the strategy game early in the race, got clean air, and looked like a rocket ship. Jamie McMurray on the other hand got stuck in mid pack and could go no where before losing the handle on his ride and slipping deep into the field. Both of these guys had about the same car going into the race, one got a Top 5, the other struggled around 25th, too big of a risk/wild card for me to buy into them just yet.
I am on board with the small momentum swing Dale Earnhardt Jr. has going. Junior is certainly one of the more temperamental fantasy drivers, when he's bad, it gets worse and when it's good, he can string together a few decent finishes, especially if he's got some of his strong tracks on the upcoming schedule. Bristol happens to be one of those tracks. Mark Martin was also another big disappointment. Decent race car that could never make any headway through the middle of the pack because of aero-push.
Ryan Newman is for real and for a team and driver who typically gets off to a slow start I'm looking for big things to continue to happen for car 39. He'll be getting 1.5 mile consideration as qualifying/track position could be a key factor on those tracks, and we know Newman's qualifying record. Clint Bowyer had a mediocre weekend, and there was no way I was using one of his 9 starts on an so-so finish, he'll be Top 10 material at more than 9 races this year, be patient, keep him on your B-List often, he'll carry you this season, eventually.
C-LIST:
Paul Menard. Enough said. Surprisingly he's been the stud of not only the C-Group, but also RCR. He's an auto green-light for 1.5 mile tracks with his performance last year and his strength this year, so much so that I am hesitant to use him at Bristol where he's also had a strong track record.
Regan Smith is a name not many are going to talk about with his early exit from the race, but he's been qualifying well (which is going to be important on the 1.5 milers I feel) and his car looked to be Top 15 before it went away. He's one of 2 drivers that will get consideration to get paired with Paul Menard at the 1.5s
Trevor Bayne is the other guy who will get hand-cuffed to Menard. Bayne was actually moving his way forward through the field early which was a bit of a surprise considering his practice performance. His pit road violation really killed his momentum, and Kenseth putting him into the fence further derailed a good run. But with a wrecked race car and pit road penalties, he still out-performed the 6 car.
Which brings me to David Ragan, the warning lights and red flags are at an all-time high. Ragan threw away a potential pole run on Friday and it killed his race. Although he was able to move through the back-markers early, once around the 25th spot his car stalled out and his performance was sub-par. This is the 3rd race in a row where he's had very good equipment, and the 3rd time in a row he's got nothing to show for it. With Bayne's performance I feel that the chance of Ragan finishing out the season is all but gone outside of some miracle turn around in the coming weeks.
So it is strategy time, remember before the season we broke the C-List down as needing:
9 Menard Starts
9 Smith Starts
9 Ragan Starts
4-5 Bayne Starts
4-5 Wild Card Starts (Bobby Labonte, 2 Road Courses, 3 Restrictor Plate Tracks)
If Ragan gets bounced out of the 6 ride for Bayne, you'll need to flip flop your Ragan and Bayne starts, that means you'll need to burn about 4-5 Ragan starts by about Race 24, as I feel like the chase is about the earliest Roush will make a switch.
For the upcoming 1.5 and larger tracks, I will be using a little more weight on qualifying than I normally would. Track position was absolutely king at Vegas, a track that normally isn't that difficult to pass on. Guys with decent race cars could not make even the slightest headway against a somewhat equal car yesterday. Early cautions jumbled up the running order yesterday, which is not typical for larger tracks. Track position will be huge as battling from the back appears to be very difficult with this new-nosed car.
I am also looking at the Ford's who may be even stronger than we think. The FR9 runs cool, but cooler than expected temperatures in Las Vegas yesterday allowed all the other makes to run more tape as well. When the hot summer months come in I think the Ford's are going to have an even bigger advantage running more tape on the nose and helping down force. We'll see how this plays out in the coming weeks.
We are going to take some time off ourselves with the off-week approaching, we'll mull over the stats and data from Bristol and have our lineup posted in plenty of time for everyone to review. As always, thanks for reading, and don't forget to join us for the live chats leading up to each green flag on Sundays!
A-LIST:
We picked our first race winner of the year, starting Carl Edwards in our A-List. This team is about as hot as it gets in NASCAR, 2nd at Daytona, what should of been a win in Phoenix, and a win in Vegas (add that to the 2 wins from the end of 2010). Now we're not ready to de-throne the 48 just yet, but I do suggest you use your Edwards starts while Roush has the upper hand.
Technically, Tony Stewart was your best pick this week in the A-List, grabbing those most laps led bonus points. Stewart flew a bit under the radar to most of the experts all week and didn't show that much in practice, making only short runs. Early Pit Strategy and clean air really made his car look sharp. We'll have an eye on him when it comes to some of the "sweeping" 1.5 mile tracks upcoming (Kansas, Chicago, ect.)
Couple of people in the live chat asked me Kyle Busch or Jeff Gordon as their starter this week. I said Busch which was the correct pick as Kyle had a Top 5 day going until his troubles hit. Gordon didn't fair much better, and was destined to be a Top 10 car until the tire failure bit him. Gordon was the biggest disappointment of the weekend, the team never found the handling of the car and although he improved before his wreck, it was a far cry from his dominance here a year ago.
Do not be afraid to load up on Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth early in the season as well. Kenseth was in line for his typical Top 10 with Top 5 potential day, Biffle had a potential race winner if it wasn't for terrible gaffe's on pit road (which I am sure will be addressed during this off weekend). Both Biffle and Kenseth were very strong at Texas 2 last season and I expect the Ford's to shine at Fontana, especially if the weather is warm.
I'm saving my Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin starts for a bit later down the line, Johnson has openly admitted he's testing some different things in the beginning part of the season. Pile that on top of Hendrick's performance overall looking a bit lack-luster and the late-season charge the 48 seems to make, I'm saving Johnson for the latter part of the year. Hamlin and Joe Gibbs Racing will need to prove themselves a little to me on the larger tracks before I start them, especially with engine reliability. I would not shy away from JGR at Bristol because of reliability issues however.
B-LIST:
Our picks ended up poorly here with Jeff Burton and Joey Logano, especially frustrating to burn 2 Logano starts in a row with poor finishes. Logano did turn the corner this weekend and showed why you'll be using darn near all 9 starts out of him, again I'd like to see a little more from JGR on the big tracks before I burn my 3rd Logano start.
Jeff Burton might be done for the year, which is a stunner. This team simply can not get out of the hole they've dug themselves into. It just looked like a complete lack of effort yesterday on track, clean air was key and the team never gave Burton a chance to get some of it with pit strategy. The car was decent but it never moved through the field thanks to the dreaded return of aero-push (more on that subject later). I suspected this downward spiral would happen later in the year, but it's here now, and Burton is a toxic commodity on the B-List. I'm staying away until some stroke of good luck appears.
Richard Petty Motorsports is for real, which is a huge shock to me as I thought they would be god awful this season. Coupled with the Ford's strength I am buying into A.J. Allmendinger and Marcos Ambrose, these guys were strong all weekend long. Allmendinger got trapped mid pack and could never recover due to the aero-push yesterday.
I'm not sold on Juan Pablo Montoya and Earnhardt Ganassi just yet. Even by Juan and his crew chief's admission, they had an "ok mid pack" car going into the race. They played the strategy game early in the race, got clean air, and looked like a rocket ship. Jamie McMurray on the other hand got stuck in mid pack and could go no where before losing the handle on his ride and slipping deep into the field. Both of these guys had about the same car going into the race, one got a Top 5, the other struggled around 25th, too big of a risk/wild card for me to buy into them just yet.
I am on board with the small momentum swing Dale Earnhardt Jr. has going. Junior is certainly one of the more temperamental fantasy drivers, when he's bad, it gets worse and when it's good, he can string together a few decent finishes, especially if he's got some of his strong tracks on the upcoming schedule. Bristol happens to be one of those tracks. Mark Martin was also another big disappointment. Decent race car that could never make any headway through the middle of the pack because of aero-push.
Ryan Newman is for real and for a team and driver who typically gets off to a slow start I'm looking for big things to continue to happen for car 39. He'll be getting 1.5 mile consideration as qualifying/track position could be a key factor on those tracks, and we know Newman's qualifying record. Clint Bowyer had a mediocre weekend, and there was no way I was using one of his 9 starts on an so-so finish, he'll be Top 10 material at more than 9 races this year, be patient, keep him on your B-List often, he'll carry you this season, eventually.
C-LIST:
Paul Menard. Enough said. Surprisingly he's been the stud of not only the C-Group, but also RCR. He's an auto green-light for 1.5 mile tracks with his performance last year and his strength this year, so much so that I am hesitant to use him at Bristol where he's also had a strong track record.
Regan Smith is a name not many are going to talk about with his early exit from the race, but he's been qualifying well (which is going to be important on the 1.5 milers I feel) and his car looked to be Top 15 before it went away. He's one of 2 drivers that will get consideration to get paired with Paul Menard at the 1.5s
Trevor Bayne is the other guy who will get hand-cuffed to Menard. Bayne was actually moving his way forward through the field early which was a bit of a surprise considering his practice performance. His pit road violation really killed his momentum, and Kenseth putting him into the fence further derailed a good run. But with a wrecked race car and pit road penalties, he still out-performed the 6 car.
Which brings me to David Ragan, the warning lights and red flags are at an all-time high. Ragan threw away a potential pole run on Friday and it killed his race. Although he was able to move through the back-markers early, once around the 25th spot his car stalled out and his performance was sub-par. This is the 3rd race in a row where he's had very good equipment, and the 3rd time in a row he's got nothing to show for it. With Bayne's performance I feel that the chance of Ragan finishing out the season is all but gone outside of some miracle turn around in the coming weeks.
So it is strategy time, remember before the season we broke the C-List down as needing:
9 Menard Starts
9 Smith Starts
9 Ragan Starts
4-5 Bayne Starts
4-5 Wild Card Starts (Bobby Labonte, 2 Road Courses, 3 Restrictor Plate Tracks)
If Ragan gets bounced out of the 6 ride for Bayne, you'll need to flip flop your Ragan and Bayne starts, that means you'll need to burn about 4-5 Ragan starts by about Race 24, as I feel like the chase is about the earliest Roush will make a switch.
For the upcoming 1.5 and larger tracks, I will be using a little more weight on qualifying than I normally would. Track position was absolutely king at Vegas, a track that normally isn't that difficult to pass on. Guys with decent race cars could not make even the slightest headway against a somewhat equal car yesterday. Early cautions jumbled up the running order yesterday, which is not typical for larger tracks. Track position will be huge as battling from the back appears to be very difficult with this new-nosed car.
I am also looking at the Ford's who may be even stronger than we think. The FR9 runs cool, but cooler than expected temperatures in Las Vegas yesterday allowed all the other makes to run more tape as well. When the hot summer months come in I think the Ford's are going to have an even bigger advantage running more tape on the nose and helping down force. We'll see how this plays out in the coming weeks.
We are going to take some time off ourselves with the off-week approaching, we'll mull over the stats and data from Bristol and have our lineup posted in plenty of time for everyone to review. As always, thanks for reading, and don't forget to join us for the live chats leading up to each green flag on Sundays!
Saturday, March 5, 2011
LAS VEGAS - Practice Review & Lockdown
Practice and qualifying is over in Las Vegas. 1st practice session you really can't take much from as far as notes, people are just finding the handle, and switching back and forth from race to qualifying setup.
Likewise, don't panic if your driver is starting a little deep in the field. Las Vegas is one of the most forgiving tracks as far as winners coming from the back. There is room to pass, pit road is nice and wide so pit selection isn't overly critical either.
Let's take a look at some final practice numbers:
10-Lap Averages, in MPH:
Ky. Busch - 182.451
Edwards - 182.419
Kenseth - 182.163
Allmendinger - 182.001
Menard - 181.979
Newman - 181.796
Reuitmann - 181.783
Ku. Busch - 181.386
Ambrose - 181.327
Martin - 180.339
Burton - 180.336
Smith - 180.325
Logano 180.317
Stewart - 180.117
Bowyer - 180.102
McMurray - 180.048
Hamlin - 180.022
Gilliland - 179.017
J. Gordon - 177.966
and here are the noteables from OVERALL Lap Averages (all laps added together), I've only included this weeks "noteable" drivers:
A-List:
Edwards - 37 Laps - 29.68
Biffle - 39 - 29.73
Ky. Busch - 61 - 29.84
Johnson - 37 - 29.99
Gordon - 42 - 30.23
B-List:
Reuitmann - 55 - 29.89
Burton - 58 - 29.92
Kahne - 37 - 29.95
Newman - 55 - 29.96
Martin - 54 - 29.96
Logano - 48 - 29.97
Bowyer - 46 - 30.03
C-List:
Menard - 45 - 29.80
Bayne - 37 - 29.89
Ragan - 56 - 29.99*
Smith - 43 - 30.66
Labonte - 42 - 30.11
* = Takes into account an off lap of over 35 seconds when Bill Elliott spun out in the session.
For me, I look at the 10-Lap Averages, as it shows 1 block session of how a driver runs. The overall lap averages are good to look at for who made longer runs, but it can be "skewed" with guys taking fresh tires often and making shorter runs will appear at the top of the charts.
If you followed my lead, you have the following to choose from as you look to lockdown your lineup:
99 - Carl Edwards or 24 - Jeff Gordon
20 - Joey Logano, 4 - Kasey Kahne, 31 - Jeff Burton, 33 - Clint Bowyer
6 - David Ragan or 21 - Trevor Bayne
For our lineup, we're rolling with the following:
A-LIST:
99 - CARL EDWARDS (8 Starts Remaining) - If you've got a blue oval Ford available, use it. This has always been a Roush favored track, and this weekend is no different. The Ford's look outstanding, I wish I had Fords in my B-List to use quite frankly. I used Edwards last week when he was the best car on track, I think he's got the best car on track this weekend as well (although he's really close with Kyle Busch). We're burning another Cousin Carl start this week.
Jeff Gordon gets the bench, his lap averages aren't great, even though he's telling everyone in the media "don't worry about it"....I'm worrying about it. He's gonna have a decent run, but in the A-List, I'm looking for winners, not Top 10.
My A-List Ranks as a whole: 99, 18, 17, 16, 48, 11, 22, 24, ect.
Kyle Busch is putting up impressive numbers, and this is a track where you've got to drive it aggressive through the corners, and we all know Kyle has no problem being aggressive. I also like that Kyle made a nice long run in final practice, got good data, and his lap times did not fall off that bad. If for some reason you picked Matt Kenseth on your A-List, congrats, use him, he's a great start save here and could contender for the win. Greg Biffle should be decent, although I am not sure if he's a race winner, car is just a touch off of Edwards and Kenseth. Jimmie Johnson has openly admitted he's in testing mode (and he was also last week and got a Top 5). He's going to be good, but I'll use my 48 starts when I know he's a race winner. Kurt Busch and Denny Hamlin are just not up to par this week, will have decent runs but you can get better value out of them elsewhere.
B-LIST:
31 - JEFF BURTON (8 Starts Remaining) - We've said it before, use Burton early, I don't think he's going to have a good season and I feel like turmoil is going to continue to drag this team down. Burton has a decent ride under him, he was very consistent in his long runs, not much fall off on his lap times. Burton has a great track record here in the past, so I am burning another Burton start here for sure.
20 - JOEY LOGANO (8 Starts Remaining) - I'm not thrilled on using a Logano start this week, but I feel like its the best option I've got personally. Logano is fast on a very short run, but his lap times fall off, bad. I'm hoping he can pull from Kyle Busch a little bit and get the car better, and he does have a decent starting position. I'm rolling the dice this week and say the 20 bounces back.
I'm benching Clint Bowyer for sure, he's the stud of our B-List and no way am I using him at a place where he does not have Top 10 potential. Bowyer has never got the handle on this ride yet this weekend and starts deep in the field. Kasey Kahne is much like Logano this week, starts off decent but lap times fall off pretty bad and pretty quick. I'm picking Logano over Kahne because at least Logano has a solid team mate to lean on.
My B-List Ranks: 31, 5, 39, 00, 43, 56, 20, 9, 33, 4, ect.
I was steering clear of Mark Martin going into this weekend with an overall lack of confidence in his team and performance, and I am happy to report....I was wrong. If you've got the 5, use him. Much like Burton I don't know if this team is going to be any better than they are right now later in the season, use your Martin starts now, he'll have great confidence coming off his Nationwide win. Ryan Newman, David Reutimann and Martin Truex Jr. are all great start saves this week, all have solid rides this weekend with decent numbers in practice without a lot of fall off on the lap times. Richard Petty Motorsports is looking decent with A.J. Allmendinger and Marcos Ambrose, I'm not sure if I'd start Ambrose but I would give serious consideration to Allmendinger who's riding decent momentum and has a much better car than I thought he would.
C-LIST:
6 - DAVID RAGAN - (9 Starts Remaining) -This is a gamble, for sure. He'd be a lock if he didn't dump it in qualifying. The car is solid, he had some good long runs in the practice session where the lap times did not fall off too bad. I worry that he's not going to be able to get through traffic, and he might be trapped a lap down early if there is an early green flag run. But I need to start using some Ragan starts, he needs a good run, I'm gambling (c'mon, it's VEGAS) on the 6 coming from the rear this week.
I'm benching Trevor Bayne, car is ok at best, but his lap times fell off pretty quick and he did not make any long runs. Couple that with his lack of experience and I am just not ready to pull the trigger on the 500 winner just yet.
C-List Ranks: 27, 6, 78, 21, 47, ect.
Use Paul Menard, without question. The car is very strong, we're looking at Top 10 potential here. He's the best RCR car on track. Regan Smith isn't a whole lot to write home about, it's a toss up on the rankings with him and Bayne. Nothing impressed me with Bobby Labonte either with lap times and fall off.
Thanks for reading. Check out www.FantasyNascarPreview.com for more message board analysis from experts, check out there live chat as well (starts 1:00 PM EST) and immediatly following their live chat, check back here and we will link our live chat that will take you all the way up to the green flag. Good luck!
Likewise, don't panic if your driver is starting a little deep in the field. Las Vegas is one of the most forgiving tracks as far as winners coming from the back. There is room to pass, pit road is nice and wide so pit selection isn't overly critical either.
Let's take a look at some final practice numbers:
10-Lap Averages, in MPH:
Ky. Busch - 182.451
Edwards - 182.419
Kenseth - 182.163
Allmendinger - 182.001
Menard - 181.979
Newman - 181.796
Reuitmann - 181.783
Ku. Busch - 181.386
Ambrose - 181.327
Martin - 180.339
Burton - 180.336
Smith - 180.325
Logano 180.317
Stewart - 180.117
Bowyer - 180.102
McMurray - 180.048
Hamlin - 180.022
Gilliland - 179.017
J. Gordon - 177.966
and here are the noteables from OVERALL Lap Averages (all laps added together), I've only included this weeks "noteable" drivers:
A-List:
Edwards - 37 Laps - 29.68
Biffle - 39 - 29.73
Ky. Busch - 61 - 29.84
Johnson - 37 - 29.99
Gordon - 42 - 30.23
B-List:
Reuitmann - 55 - 29.89
Burton - 58 - 29.92
Kahne - 37 - 29.95
Newman - 55 - 29.96
Martin - 54 - 29.96
Logano - 48 - 29.97
Bowyer - 46 - 30.03
C-List:
Menard - 45 - 29.80
Bayne - 37 - 29.89
Ragan - 56 - 29.99*
Smith - 43 - 30.66
Labonte - 42 - 30.11
* = Takes into account an off lap of over 35 seconds when Bill Elliott spun out in the session.
For me, I look at the 10-Lap Averages, as it shows 1 block session of how a driver runs. The overall lap averages are good to look at for who made longer runs, but it can be "skewed" with guys taking fresh tires often and making shorter runs will appear at the top of the charts.
If you followed my lead, you have the following to choose from as you look to lockdown your lineup:
99 - Carl Edwards or 24 - Jeff Gordon
20 - Joey Logano, 4 - Kasey Kahne, 31 - Jeff Burton, 33 - Clint Bowyer
6 - David Ragan or 21 - Trevor Bayne
For our lineup, we're rolling with the following:
A-LIST:
99 - CARL EDWARDS (8 Starts Remaining) - If you've got a blue oval Ford available, use it. This has always been a Roush favored track, and this weekend is no different. The Ford's look outstanding, I wish I had Fords in my B-List to use quite frankly. I used Edwards last week when he was the best car on track, I think he's got the best car on track this weekend as well (although he's really close with Kyle Busch). We're burning another Cousin Carl start this week.
Jeff Gordon gets the bench, his lap averages aren't great, even though he's telling everyone in the media "don't worry about it"....I'm worrying about it. He's gonna have a decent run, but in the A-List, I'm looking for winners, not Top 10.
My A-List Ranks as a whole: 99, 18, 17, 16, 48, 11, 22, 24, ect.
Kyle Busch is putting up impressive numbers, and this is a track where you've got to drive it aggressive through the corners, and we all know Kyle has no problem being aggressive. I also like that Kyle made a nice long run in final practice, got good data, and his lap times did not fall off that bad. If for some reason you picked Matt Kenseth on your A-List, congrats, use him, he's a great start save here and could contender for the win. Greg Biffle should be decent, although I am not sure if he's a race winner, car is just a touch off of Edwards and Kenseth. Jimmie Johnson has openly admitted he's in testing mode (and he was also last week and got a Top 5). He's going to be good, but I'll use my 48 starts when I know he's a race winner. Kurt Busch and Denny Hamlin are just not up to par this week, will have decent runs but you can get better value out of them elsewhere.
B-LIST:
31 - JEFF BURTON (8 Starts Remaining) - We've said it before, use Burton early, I don't think he's going to have a good season and I feel like turmoil is going to continue to drag this team down. Burton has a decent ride under him, he was very consistent in his long runs, not much fall off on his lap times. Burton has a great track record here in the past, so I am burning another Burton start here for sure.
20 - JOEY LOGANO (8 Starts Remaining) - I'm not thrilled on using a Logano start this week, but I feel like its the best option I've got personally. Logano is fast on a very short run, but his lap times fall off, bad. I'm hoping he can pull from Kyle Busch a little bit and get the car better, and he does have a decent starting position. I'm rolling the dice this week and say the 20 bounces back.
I'm benching Clint Bowyer for sure, he's the stud of our B-List and no way am I using him at a place where he does not have Top 10 potential. Bowyer has never got the handle on this ride yet this weekend and starts deep in the field. Kasey Kahne is much like Logano this week, starts off decent but lap times fall off pretty bad and pretty quick. I'm picking Logano over Kahne because at least Logano has a solid team mate to lean on.
My B-List Ranks: 31, 5, 39, 00, 43, 56, 20, 9, 33, 4, ect.
I was steering clear of Mark Martin going into this weekend with an overall lack of confidence in his team and performance, and I am happy to report....I was wrong. If you've got the 5, use him. Much like Burton I don't know if this team is going to be any better than they are right now later in the season, use your Martin starts now, he'll have great confidence coming off his Nationwide win. Ryan Newman, David Reutimann and Martin Truex Jr. are all great start saves this week, all have solid rides this weekend with decent numbers in practice without a lot of fall off on the lap times. Richard Petty Motorsports is looking decent with A.J. Allmendinger and Marcos Ambrose, I'm not sure if I'd start Ambrose but I would give serious consideration to Allmendinger who's riding decent momentum and has a much better car than I thought he would.
C-LIST:
6 - DAVID RAGAN - (9 Starts Remaining) -This is a gamble, for sure. He'd be a lock if he didn't dump it in qualifying. The car is solid, he had some good long runs in the practice session where the lap times did not fall off too bad. I worry that he's not going to be able to get through traffic, and he might be trapped a lap down early if there is an early green flag run. But I need to start using some Ragan starts, he needs a good run, I'm gambling (c'mon, it's VEGAS) on the 6 coming from the rear this week.
I'm benching Trevor Bayne, car is ok at best, but his lap times fell off pretty quick and he did not make any long runs. Couple that with his lack of experience and I am just not ready to pull the trigger on the 500 winner just yet.
C-List Ranks: 27, 6, 78, 21, 47, ect.
Use Paul Menard, without question. The car is very strong, we're looking at Top 10 potential here. He's the best RCR car on track. Regan Smith isn't a whole lot to write home about, it's a toss up on the rankings with him and Bayne. Nothing impressed me with Bobby Labonte either with lap times and fall off.
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