Well I've had a free pass the last 2 races with the crapshoot at Daytona and the new track at Kentucky. We're back to "normal" this week, as we look at the Loop Data, preview, and lockdown our team since we do not get to see any practices before lockdown this week.
Coming off a strong 310 point performance in Kentucky, FNG is up to the 93% overall and we look to continue that streak. We'll look at 2 sets of data, first lets take a look at the last 2 years (4 races) at Loudon:
AVERAGE FINISH:
A-LIST:
Ku. Busch - 6th
Gordon - 7th
Hamlin - 8th
Ky. Busch - 8th
B-LIST:
Reutimann - 10th
Bowyer - 10th
Newman - 13th
Earnhardt Jr - 15th
Martin - 16th
Montoya - 16th
Logano - 17th
Keselowski - 17th
C-LIST:
Smith - 26th
Labonte - 28th
Ragan - 28th
Menard - 30th
% of LAPS INSIDE TOP 15:
A-LIST:
Ku. Busch - 95%
Gordon - 90%
Johnson - 89%
Stewart - 84%
B-LIST:
Montoya - 87%
Bowyer - 80%
Reutimann - 78%
Earnhardt Jr - 77%
Newman - 72%
Burton - 66%
Martin - 62%
Kahne - 49%
C-LIST:
Labonte - 8%
Ragan - 7%
Menard - 5%
Smith - 0.9%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-LIST:
Johnson - 114
Ku. Busch - 112
Stewart - 107
Gordon - 107
B-LIST:
Bowyer - 104
Montoya - 103
Earnhardt Jr - 92
Reutimann - 91
Burton - 91
Martin - 89
Kahne - 88
Newman - 87
C-LIST:
Ragan - 55
Menard - 51
Labonte - 51
Smith - 50
Next, let's take a look at the flat tracks from 2010 and the ones from 2011 so far. 2010 Loudon x2, 2010 Richmond x2 and 2011 spring race, 2010 Phoenix x2 and 2011 spring race, and 2010 Martinsville x2 and 2011 spring race:
AVERAGE FINISH:
A-LIST:
Ky. Busch - 7th
Johnson - 8th
Hamlin - 9th
Harvick - 9th
B-LIST:
Newman - 10th
Logano - 13th
Bowyer - 13th
Earnhardt Jr - 14th
Martin - 15th
Allmendinger - 15th
Burton - 17th
Montoya - 17th
C-LIST:
Ragan - 19th
Menard - 26th
Smith - 27th
Labonte - 30th
% of LAPS INSIDE TOP 15:
A-LIST:
Ky. Busch - 90%
Johnson - 86%
Gordon - 79%
Stewart - 84%
B-LIST:
Newman - 81%
Bowyer - 77%
Montoya - 66%
Burton - 66%
Allmendinger - 62%
Logano - 49%
Reutimann - 49%
Martin - 48%
C-LIST:
Menard - 18%
Ragan - 16%
Smith - 12%
Labonte - 3%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-LIST:
Ky. Busch - 116
Hamlin - 109
Johnson - 108
Gordon - 107
B-LIST:
Bowyer - 101
Newman - 97
Burton - 94
Montoya - 89
Allmendinger - 86
Logano - 83
Martin - 83
Earnhardt Jr - 82
C-LIST:
Ragan - 66
Menard - 63
Smith - 57
Labonte - 50
Now that we have our baseline, we'll focus a little more on 2011 performances at the flat tracks so far (Phoenix, Richmond, Martinsville). All 3 of those races were 3 months ago or more, so its also import to factor in recent momentum over the past few races to lockdown with the following drivers:
A-LIST:
Kyle Busch (7 Starts Remaining) - There is just no denying the 18 this week. JGR has always had a fantastic flat track/brake program and it shows when you look at the loop data above. 2011 he won at Richmond, 3rd at Martinsville, 2nd at Phoenix. Loudon is probably the weakest of all the flat tracks for Kyle, but not by much. Factor in an excellent weekend at Kentucky and his points lead and Kyle makes my team this week.
Jimmie Johnson (7 Starts Remaining) - Statistically Jimmie is the best driver over the last 4 races here at Loudon. He "struggled" to an 8th place at Phoenix, ended up 11th due to late race pit problems at Martinsville (was a race winning contender), and was 3rd at Richmond most recently. This team is looking for wins and coming off a good run at Kentucky it would not surprise me to see the 48 end up in victory lane.
You could certainly make a case for Denny Hamlin to join Kyle for an all JGR A-List, Hamlin is coming off a decent performance at Kentucky (although the team was frustrated not to leave with a better result) and Hamlin was 2nd behind team mate Busch at Richmond and was a race winning contender at Martinsville before ending up 12th on the same pit problems as Johnson. I'm giving the nod to Johnson due to slightly better performance here at Loudon in the past.
Kurt Busch could also make your list this weekend as Loudon has always been a strong track for big brother. 95% of his laps inside the Top 15 the last 4 races here at Loudon is very telling. The team also has a lot of momentum, but that has mostly built on the faster tracks. The team has been terrible at the flat tracks this season minus an 8th place at Phoenix way back in February. I might kick myself for not continuing to ride the Kurt wave, but I feel Johnson and Little Brother are the safer bets this week.
If you are looking to go further off the radar, Jeff Gordon could be an option most won't use this week. Gordon won at Phoenix and was 5th at Martinsville, however I'm not big on this team right now as the momentum is only fair at best. Tony Stewart was very strong here last year before running out of gas on the closing laps, but again I just can't get behind Stewart as everyone thought he was the best car "by a mile" at Kentucky and the team still could not get the job done.
B-LIST:
Ryan Newman (6 Starts Remaining) - Newman is an absolute must when it comes to the flat tracks. Much like Kyle in the A-List, Loudon is not the best track for Newman but his performance isn't bad here. His 2011 numbers are heavily skewed as he had a great car at Richmond before wrecking with Montoya in a payback situation. Newman was also strong at Martinsville before a mechanical failure dropped him out. When he's not having bad luck, Phoenix with a 5th. Newman's team is also riding high after relieving some "bubble pressure" on the chase bump spot with a strong run at Kentucky.
Clint Bowyer (6 Starts Remaining) - Bowyer gets my 1 exception on the momentum factor for this week. The team was embarrasing at Kentucky, and I think that should be rock bottom for them. This has rebound week written all over it. Bowyer was 6th at Richmond and 9th at Martinsville this year, probably had a Top 10 car at Phoenix but was caught up in that huge early race wreck. Bowyer is the best driver of the B-List in the last 4 races here so he at least gets consideration for a start this week.
Kasey Kahne (6 Starts Remaining) - Kahne is another driver who has been up and down this year, but a lot of his ups came at the flat tracks this year. Kahne was very strong at Richmond with a 3rd, and was 6th at Phoenix. Kahne also had a great car at Martinsville before being pile-driven into the wall by a brake failure on Martin Truex Jr. This isn't a great track for Kahne, but neither was Phoenix where he ran 6th. Kahne used strategy to bring home a solid run at Kentucky and I want to use up some Kahne starts before the Red Bull shut down turmoil and Kahne looking ahead to Hendrick gets more prominent.
A.J. Allmendinger (7 Starts Remaining) - Allmendinger is an excellent start save option this week. Dinger had 2 very impressive runs here at Loudon last year, and he's backed it up on the flat tracks so far this year: 7th at Richmond, 14th at Martinsville (but ran top 10 most of the day), and 9th at Phoenix.
Juan Pablo Montoya is a popular pick for some teams this week. I debated on whether or not I should give the Kahne spot to JPM, but ultimately went with Kahne since I wanted to burn starts with him as I believe Montoya will have decent value at tracks for the remainder of the year while distractions could hurt Kahne. I've got 5 JPM starts left, one to use at Watkins Glen, 2 possibly at the big flats of Pocono and Indy, leaving 2 more to burn at short tracks and other flat tracks JPM has performed well at this year, plus JPM isn't all that bad on certain 1.5 milers.
David Reutimann's numbers here impressed me quite a bit when they popped up, but for the 2nd week in a row I'm not going to give him the respect that he deserves. I had that gut feeling after Thursday that I should put Reutimann in as my sleeper at Kentucky, but didn't pull the trigger. This week its the terrible performances at the flat tracks in 2011 (and at the other flats in 2010 outside of Loudon) that push the 00 off my team.
The deep B-List rounds out with Joey Logano. JGR flat track program is outstanding and Joey has had decent runs this year with an 11th at Richmond and 13th at Martinsville (a blown motor took out Joey early at Phoenix). The momentum is slowly building with this team, but its just not quite there yet. This could be the week they kick it into full gear, but I'm not risking a spot on my B-List for a guy who might run 15th all day.'
Dale Earnhardt Jr. is worth noting this week as his flat track performance has been fair in 2011, 19th at Richmond, 2nd at Martinsville, and 10th at Phoenix. However with limited starts left (I'm down to 3 myself) and the team having absolutely no momentum, this is not the week you burn another Junior start in hopes of a rebound.
C-LIST:
Unlike the B-List which is very deep this week, the C-List is terrible. I do believe David Ragan and Paul Menard will probably end up with the best finishes of the C-List, but they'll be racing with other C-Listers this week and I don't think the gap will be too substantial like it is on the 1.5 mile tracks. That being said, this week I'm biting the bullet and benching both the 6 and the 27 and squeezing a start out of some others:
Regan Smith (5 Starts Remaining) - I suspect Regan will get the start for me in the C-List. He was 17th at Richmond and had a very impressive car at Phoenix before getting caught up in the big wreck. Regan could also get some qualifying points for us as he's been great on the Q speed charts on the flats.
Bobby Labonte (7 Starts Remaining) - There is a chance Labonte could grab the start here in the C-List. Survived Richmond in 24th and Phoenix in 21st but had a very fast car at Martinsville before getting punted by Kurt Busch. I don't have enough confidence in anyone else in the C-List as a backup to Regan, so Labonte gets this spot by default, and I would be surprised to see anything better than a Top 20 out of Labonte.
Trevor Bayne is not scheduled to compete this weekend. A name that is starting to appear on the radar is Landon Cassill. Much like Labonte, he runs around that Top 25 area, but every now and then can wake up with some good strategy to grab a good finish. I'm a little more sold on him as a start-saver for much later in the season when I am literally out of Menard and Ragan starts.
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