LOUDON 1 - Lockdown

After 3 practices and qualifying, let's take a look at the breakdown:

We're not putting any stock in P1, since that was mostly qualifying runs and its so hard to get relevant race data from the session, instead, let's look at P2 and P3 from Saturday, which were purely race runs:

P2 10-Lap Averages:

Best 10 Consecutive Lap Average
Rank	Car#	Driver	From Lap	To Lap	Avg Speed	Overall Rank
1	33	Clint Bowyer	2	11	128.421	2
2	14	Tony Stewart	2	11	128.287	1
3	31	Jeff Burton	2	11	128.239	7
4	24	Jeff Gordon	1	10	128.079	4
5	11	Denny Hamlin	2	11	128.052	6
6	20	Joey Logano	2	11	127.969	13
7	27	Paul Menard	20	29	127.881	8
8	48	Jimmie Johnson	25	34	127.836	9
9	22	Kurt Busch	25	34	127.752	20
10	39	Ryan Newman	29	38	127.709	14
11	18	Kyle Busch	2	11	127.684	12
12	2	Brad Keselowski	1	10	127.681	3
13	83	Brian Vickers	4	13	127.671	23
14	78	Regan Smith	2	11	127.568	29
15	56	Martin Truex Jr.	25	34	127.559	5
16	00	David Reutimann	1	10	127.463	22
17	88	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	32	41	127.262	16
18	43	A J Allmendinger	13	22	127.227	27
19	17	Matt Kenseth	1	10	127.101	28
20	5	Mark Martin	28	37	127.011	25
21	46	Erik Darnell(i)	2	11	124.982	36

P3 10-Lap Averages:

Best 10 Consecutive Lap Average
Rank	Car#	Driver	From Lap	To Lap	Avg Speed	Overall Rank
1	48	Jimmie Johnson	40	49	128.755	1
2	31	Jeff Burton	1	10	128.669	4
3	20	Joey Logano	1	10	128.463	6
4	24	Jeff Gordon	1	10	128.094	13
5	42	Juan Pablo Montoya	1	10	128.042	2
6	56	Martin Truex Jr.	1	10	127.969	8
7	2	Brad Keselowski	1	10	127.966	5
8	5	Mark Martin	33	42	127.862	17
9	22	Kurt Busch	20	29	127.804	10
10	39	Ryan Newman	41	50	127.748	3
11	9	Marcos Ambrose	32	41	127.731	16
12	11	Denny Hamlin	34	43	127.719	9
13	14	Tony Stewart	4	13	127.707	21
14	33	Clint Bowyer	1	10	127.615	23
15	27	Paul Menard	1	10	127.582	18
16	43	A J Allmendinger	33	42	127.532	12
17	29	Kevin Harvick	8	17	127.524	11
18	1	Jamie McMurray	31	40	127.513	14
19	47	Bobby Labonte	2	11	127.305	32
20	51	Landon Cassill(i)	1	10	127.082	33
21	38	J J Yeley	1	10	126.917	27
22	6	David Ragan	3	12	126.883	25
23	71	Andy Lally #	28	37	126.216	41
24	34	David Gilliland	15	24	125.715	34

We're putting more emphasis on the P3 10-lap averages, as they were much closer to what race conditions will be. Even the drivers commented that the track "totally changed" from P2 to P3.

A-LIST:
Jimmie Johnson starts deep in the field, but if there is any team I have confidence to find their way to the front, it's Knaus and 5-time. Johnson was consistent over his runs in P3 and was lighting fast on a short run as well. The deep starting position and strength already at the top of the field, I'm not sure Johnson can grab the win, but he's my best option in the A this week.

Team mate Jeff Gordon ran a ton of laps in final practice and was happy with the balance of his car. With good starting position and Gordon's performance on the flat's this year, its hard to imagine he won't be the man to beat tomorrow. Many in the garage were talking about Tony Stewart and his impressive track record here, he starts up front but his practice numbers, especially in P3 where his numbers were only mid pack.

Kyle Busch has been all over the map this weekend, it's hard to say exactly where he will end up on Sunday, he'll find my bench this weekend. In the final 30 minutes of P3 Kyle and the team tried something different and dropped like a rock in the charts, this shows me this team was making big swings and searching hard and still don't have the setup nailed down yet. Team mate Denny Hamlin looks much more consistent, and should be good for a Top 10.

B-LIST:
You have to lock in Ryan Newman. Starting on the pole, a great flat track racer, and his practice numbers were solid. Next!

Clint Bowyer has been on a terrible slide over the past few weeks, but if he's going to rebound, Loudon is the place to do it. He has a decent starting position and his practice speeds were decent, although slightly disappointing in P3. I'm ranking Bowyer barely ahead of Kasey Kahne, very similar story with Kahne, decent starting position and decent practice numbers. Both of these guys should be all over each other all race long right around the Top 10.

Jeff Burton has been very impressive on the speed charts all weekend long, and a 6th place starting position also bodes well for Burton. Of course the problem is the momentum hasn't been there all year long for the 31 team, and even Jeff gave a frustrating interview on Friday saying they haven't got what they deserved all year long.

Sleeper picks this week include the Toyota's of Joey Logano and David Reutimann. Reuty is riding a great wave of momentum and he's starting 3rd, I don't see much more than a Top 15 out of the 00 though. Logano on the other hand starts 16th but has found a great balance on the car and looks very impressive on the speed charts, outside chance he could land a Top 10. Our sleeper pick coming in of A.J. Allmendinger has been flat all weekend, and I'd be surprised if he ends up cracking the Top 15.

C-LIST:
David Ragan, and Roush Fenway as a whole has been a huge disappointment this weekend. Ragan is a must bench as he has much better value on the intermediate tracks. Paul Menard doesn't look much better than a Top 20 so he should also be saved for the intermediates.

Bobby Labonte has looked very impressive all weekend, and could crack the Top 20 which would be outstanding. Regan Smith has a little better starting position and I think the 78 and 47 should be right on top of each other all race long, I'm going to flip a coin and say Smith will be just a touch better than Labonte.


FNG Team:
Start:
48 (7)
39 (6)
33 (6)
78 (5)

Bench:
18 (7)
4 (6)
43 (7)
6 (3)