After a week off we're facing one of the toughest, if not, THE toughest week of picks we've had all year long. Teams "locked in" to the chase are looking for wins, and teams outside of the Top 10 are win-hungry to try to get into the chase. We do get to see 2 practices on Friday, however with the unique qualifying time making going out EARLY the advantage, you'll potentially see sandbagging in the practice sessions. Finally, throw in a ton of crew chief changes to some notable names and you've got a difficult week of picks.
Just to put you up to speed, Juan Pablo Montoya, A.J. Allmendinger and Jeff Burton all went through crew chief swaps after Loudon. Add in Greg Biffle who only has 1 race under his belt with his new crew chief.
First we'll take a look at the last 2 years at the Brickyard:
AVERAGE FINISH:
A-LIST:
Biffle - 4th
Harvick - 4th
Stewart - 4th
Edwards - 11th
B-LIST:
Vickers - 5th (2009 only)
Martin - 7th
Kahne - 10th
McMurray - 11th
Bowyer - 11th
Logano - 11th
Burton - 16th
Newman - 16th
C-LIST:
Menard - 22nd
Ragan - 22nd
Labonte - 27th
Smith - 36th
% of LAPS INSIDE TOP 15:
A-LIST:
Biffle - 99%
Stewart - 85%
Harvick - 79%
Gordon - 76%
B-LIST:
Vickers - 100% (2009 only)
Martin - 99%
Kahne - 92%
Montoya - 91%
Bowyer - 89%
McMurray - 50%
Reutimann - 50%
Earnhardt Jr. - 49%
C-LIST:
Menard - 15%
Ragan - 9%
Smith - 0.9%
Labonte - 0.3%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-LIST:
Biffle - 120
Stewart - 105
Harvick - 102
Johnson - 101
B-LIST:
Montoya - 125
Martin - 118
Vickers - 114 (2009 only)
Bowyer - 97
Kahne - 93
McMurray - 92
Burton - 83
Logano - 79
C-LIST:
Ragan - 65
Menard - 59
Labonte - 44
Smith - 43
Next, let's take a look at the last 2 years of Indy AND Pocono (2011, both 2010 and both 2009 races) combined:
AVERAGE FINISH:
A-LIST:
Stewart - 6th
Harvick - 8th
Johnson - 9th
Gordon - 12th
B-LIST:
Bowyer - 11th
Montoya - 12th
Newman - 12th
Martin - 13th
Burton - 14th
Kahne - 14th
Vickers - 14th
Reutimann - 16th
C-LIST:
Menard - 20th
Ragan - 21st
Smith - 27th
Labonte - 30th
% of LAPS INSIDE TOP 15:
A-LIST:
Gordon - 86%
Biffle - 84%
Johnson - 81%
Stewart - 76%
B-LIST:
Kahne - 82%
Montoya - 77%
Martin - 73%
Vickers - 68%
Bowyer - 64%
Burton - 58%
Newman - 57%
Earnhardt Jr. - 48%
C-LIST:
Menard - 14%
Ragan - 13%
Smith - 7%
Labonte - 1%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-LIST:
Johnson - 111
Gordon - 103
Biffle - 100
Hamlin - 100
B-LIST:
Montoya - 104
Martin - 95
Kahne - 94
Bowyer - 92
Vickers - 88
Burton - 88
Newman - 84
Reutimann - 77
C-LIST:
Ragan - 64
Menard - 60
Smith - 55
Labonte - 45
Finally, we'll focus on 2011 Pocono results and to a small extent momentum from the previous races. Keeping in mind we could change our teams after the Friday practices (which could be a mess), here is who we are watching going into practice:
A-LIST:
Tony Stewart always gives it a little extra when he comes to the Brickyard, and his previous track record here shows promising results. However his 2011 Pocono performance was lackluster, running around 15th-20th all day.
Although the last 2 years at the Brickyard have not been kind to Jeff Gordon, you can't deny his performance this year. A win at Pocono and an excellent car at New Hampshire makes Gordon a definite one to watch on Friday.
Two drivers who could surprise this weekend are Kevin Harvick and Greg Biffle. Harvick is pretty solid at Indy and Pocono over the last few years, and Harvick did click off another Top 5 at Pocono this past June. Biffle has been lights out the last 2 years at the Brickyard, but he was junk at Pocono this year and with his new crew chief it makes The Biff a high risk choice this week. Kurt Busch hasn't had much to brag about at Indy, but was 2nd best car behind Gordon at Pocono earlier this year.
Jimmie Johnson will be another interesting pick to watch. This team is all over the map on performance, and they've been hit/miss at the Brickyard to boot. I will need to see some promise from 5-time on Friday for him to make the team.
B-LIST:
Juan Pablo Montoya has absolutely killed it the last 2 years at the Brickyard, and has been bitten by bad luck both times. Montoya was by far the best car of the B-Listers at Pocono earlier this year, which is enough to make Montoya my only lock to make my team regardless of Friday performance and crew chief changes.
Kasey Kahne has been solid at the Brickyard and Pocono and was a solid Top 15 to Top 10 car at Pocono earlier this year. Mark Martin has great numbers here but as always he is a high risk pick as the team can't seem to make the performance translate to the race this year. Clint Bowyer has always been great at Pocono and Indy, but this team is in a serious funk. Loudon is always a strong track for Bowyer and he was an "also ran" all day. The week off may have helped this team, but I'm going to need to see results in practice before I slot him into my Brickyard team.
I really like A.J. Allmendinger as a potential sleeper this week. With Greg Erwin on board this team could really come to life. Joey Logano is riding a good wave of momentum, had decent performance at Pocono and could be another sleeper this week that won't make many other rosters.
C-LIST:
Paul Menard looks to be the solid option this week in the C-List. He has had success here previously and was the best car at Pocono earlier this year. David Ragan could end up being the best C-Lister, but I'm still saving him for the 1.5 mile tracks where he is far and away better than the field.
Trevor Bayne should be one to watch. Bill Elliott has had a lot of success in the Wood Brothers ride here in previous years, and could be a start save option. Regan Smith is a safe backup to Menard, Smith ran in lock-step with Menard at Pocono, and could squeeze a Top 20 out at Indy.
Check back on Friday night for our lockdown team!
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