For the first time ever, NASCAR visits Kentucky for a Cup race. This is a great opportunity to make up ground on your competition as they may just take a few "shots in the dark" since they may not think there is any data to go off of coming into this weeks event. However, that is not the case.
Kentucky has been around for years and has been beat on by Nationwide, Truck Series, ARCA, IndyCar and many others. The track surface is worn and rough and has defined bumps. Kentucky has 14 degrees of bank in the corners, 8 on the front stretch and 4 on the back stretch. Most similar is Kansas with 15 in the corners, 10 on the front and 5 on the back. However Kansas is much smoother, so you also have to look at bumpier tracks, especially Texas and to a smaller extent Charlotte.
Also factor in like many of the other 1.5 mile tracks, we could see long green flag runs and a fuel mileage game at the end of the race. Finally there is an "open test" on Thursday at the track before lockdown. Teams will not only be allowed to get additional track time for the Kentucky race, but they will also be allowed to test the new 2012 Fuel Injection systems for the first time:
"During an open test day Thursday, originally scheduled so Cup teams would have extra time on a track they have not previously competed, teams will also be allowed to test cars with fuel injection. NASCAR officials expect each of the four manufacturers to have at least one car with EFI on the track. They will all likely be driven by drivers not competing in Saturday’s Cup race."
Currently there is no scheduled TV coverage of the Thursday open test. Additionally, we might have access to limited, or possibly even no data as far as lap times for the Thursday test. Check NASCAR.com throughout the day to see if they provide a live leaderboard.
For now, here are the ones to watch coming into the inaugural weekend at Kentucky:
A-LIST:
Once again, it's hard to argue against Roush Fenway Racing on the intermediates. Carl Edwards has experience from the Truck and Nationwide series here at Kentucky, and has been consistently the best driver on the Intermediates this season. Edwards was 5th at Kansas and 3rd at Texas, leading in both races. If you're looking for a negative on Edwards, his momentum and loss of the points lead after Daytona is about the only thing you can point towards. Team mate Matt Kenseth absolutely embarrassed the field at Texas this year on his way to a victory, led the most laps at Charlotte, and finished 6th at Kansas earlier this year. Greg Biffle did the tire test here and felt comfortable with his setup, but as always, Biffle is high risk/high reward.
You can't ignore the performance of Kurt Busch as of late. Kurt had the dominate car at Kansas before fuel mileage took him out of the running. Even when the team wasn't performing well earlier in the season, Kurt still managed a 10th place run at Texas. Kurt has also been crushing it on qualifying earlier this year, and if you feel confident in your A-List starter, you might slide Kurt into your A-List bench for qualifying points only. Team mates Keselowski did the tire test here so Penske has notes to pull from coming into the weekend.
One of the best in managing a fuel mileage race is Denny Hamlin. Hamlin was 3rd at Kansas earlier this year and had a Top 10 going in Charlotte before running out of fuel on the final lap. The 11 team has turned their program around on the intermediates. Team mate Kyle Busch however has struggled on the intermediates this year, and about the only positive you can look at with Kyle is his previous experience here in the Nationwide cars.
Finally give a glance at Kevin Harvick, who was also part of the tire test here. Harvick won the fuel mileage game at Charlotte earlier this year, but has been outside the Top 10 at Kansas and Texas. He ranks right in with Biffle for me as a high risk/high reward pick this weekend.
B-LIST:
Much like Edwards in the A-List, when you think Intermediates, think Dale Earnhardt Jr. Yes he is the hot topic this week after showing frustrations from Daytona, but you can't ignore the great fuel mileage he's got this year, pulling out a 2nd at Kansas on fuel mileage and falling a few hundred feet short of victory at Charlotte. Back that up with a solid 9th place at Texas and I'm sold on the 88.
Clint Bowyer is a great insurance policy to have this weekend. Clint has raced here in the past in the Nationwide series and Clint has also shown strength this year at Texas with a 2nd place run plus a history of strong performances from Kansas. You will want to have insurance as you should be able to get some sleeper value from our next 3 competitors...
Joey Logano has been dominate here in the Nationwide series with 3 victories in 3 starts at Kentucky. The team is getting better on the Intermediates this year, and Logano did the tire test here earlier in the year. Even Biffle commented during the tire test how good Logano was, going as far to say Joey would be the car to beat this weekend. Brad Keselowski did the tire test here as the lone Dodge entry. Kez also won at Kansas this year on fuel mileage, won the pole at Charlotte and was running in the Top 10 before getting caught up in a late race restart crash. Finally Marcos Ambrose has been stout at Texas and Charlotte this year, both with Top 10 performances throughout the night and should be in the sleeper conversation this weekend.
The rest of the B-List has been all over the map this year on the intermediates. Guys like Juan Pablo Montoya, Kasey Kahne, and Ryan Newman could surprise as they are great on slick bumpy tracks, however they are high risk/high reward and you could get better value out of them at other tracks. Mark Martin and David Reutimann also participated in the tire test here, but neither driver has had any luck on the Intermediates this year, running outside the Top 15-20 most races (Reutimann did sneak a 7th place at Charlotte on fuel mileage).
C-LIST:
You have to really like David Ragan these final 10 races before the chase. As of right now, Ragan is sitting pretty inside the Top 20 in points and with a win that has him currently in the chase as of this week. To me this means Ragan is going to look for solid points finishes to stay in that chase spot, and not take some of the unnecessary risks we've seen earlier this season. Add into the fact that Ragan as 13th at Kansas, 7th (and the pole winner) at Texas and 2nd after the fuel mileage battle at Charlotte makes him a lock for my team this week.
Paul Menard is a great backup option and there is an outside chance Menard could sneak into a starting position. Menard was 5th at Texas, got bit by fuel strategy at Kansas and wrecked at Charlotte so its hard to hold those poor finishes against him entirely. Menard's intermediate performance have been stout and he is also known to wake up and throw down a lap in qualifying.
Regan Smith is another option, more for qualifying points than anything else. I just can't see benching Ragan or Menard for any reason this weekend as Smith has been mediocre at best this year on the Intermediates. Likewise Bobby Labonte just doesn't have the speed on these tracks and should be avoided. Travis Kvapil did the tire test here but there is almost no reason to go that deep in the C-List for a starter. Trevor Bayne is not scheduled to compete this weekend.
Check back here Thursday night to see our final lockdown team and if we have any last minute data to provide from the Thursday open test.
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