KENTUCKY - Lockdown

Practice is over and weather played havoc with Friday activities. It would of been nice to seen more practice today and to get qualifying in but that is not the case. Let's take a look at the data we did collect from the weekend:

THURSDAY 10-Lap Averages: (remember, these were backup cars and a lot of different testing agendas)
Practice 1:

Best 10 Consecutive Lap Average
Rank	Car#	Driver	From Lap	To Lap	Avg Speed	Overall Rank
1	18	Kyle Busch	70	79	173.544	4
2	00	David Reutimann	48	57	173.365	8
3	14	Tony Stewart	40	49	172.742	28
4	2	Brad Keselowski	5	14	172.422	18
5	121	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	33	42	172.289
6	27	Paul Menard	84	93	172.080	2
7	33	Clint Bowyer	43	52	171.924	32
8	31	Jeff Burton	35	44	171.791	14
9	125	Sam Hornish Jr.	42	51	171.709
10	48	Jimmie Johnson	3	12	171.329	1
11	124	Mike Skinner	17	26	170.637
12	51	Landon Cassill(i)	23	32	169.528	37

Practice 2:

Best 10 Consecutive Lap Average
Rank	Car#	Driver	From Lap	To Lap	Avg Speed	Overall Rank
1	31	Jeff Burton	7	16	174.388	9
2	27	Paul Menard	11	20	173.995	4
3	24	Jeff Gordon	12	21	173.992	8
4	88	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	15	24	173.766	25
5	4	Kasey Kahne	28	37	173.229	34
6	2	Brad Keselowski	35	44	173.190	31
7	18	Kyle Busch	16	25	173.070	1
8	6	David Ragan	54	63	172.917	26
9	125	Sam Hornish Jr.	12	21	172.860	x
10	48	Jimmie Johnson	1	10	172.768	6
11	43	A J Allmendinger	18	27	172.580	33
12	9	Marcos Ambrose	39	48	172.496	32
13	121	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	1	10	172.482	x
14	51	Landon Cassill(i)	36	45	172.420	35
15	29	Kevin Harvick	23	32	172.051	36
16	42	Juan Pablo Montoya	19	28	171.633	14
17	83	Brian Vickers	29	38	171.115	41
18	38	Travis Kvapil(i)	6	15	170.405	39

FRIDAY:
Practice 3:

Best 10 Consecutive Lap Average
Rank	Car#	Driver	From Lap	To Lap	Avg Speed	Overall Rank
1	14	Tony Stewart	24	33	178.513	9
2	2	Brad Keselowski	22	31	177.409	6
3	78	Regan Smith	3	12	177.321	12
4	6	David Ragan	26	35	177.314	8
5	27	Paul Menard	5	14	177.179	10
6	31	Jeff Burton	7	16	176.916	22
7	22	Kurt Busch	12	21	176.847	3
8	17	Matt Kenseth	9	18	176.794	13
9	00	David Reutimann	6	15	176.791	17
10	5	Mark Martin	28	37	176.783	28
11	56	Martin Truex Jr.	32	41	176.655	16
12	18	Kyle Busch	38	47	176.453	1
13	42	Juan Pablo Montoya	25	34	176.368	2
14	4	Kasey Kahne	25	34	176.277	4
15	33	Clint Bowyer	19	28	176.117	20
16	39	Ryan Newman	25	34	176.064	18
17	48	Jimmie Johnson	26	35	175.967	5
18	9	Marcos Ambrose	9	18	175.778	11
19	43	A J Allmendinger	14	23	175.510	23

With the data above and our thoughts going in, we're locking down with the following:

A-LIST:
Kurt Busch (9 Starts Remaining) - You can't deny this team is hot right now. This team was strong at Kansas and they've even admitted they've really hit on a setup they like. I believe passing will be difficult with the bumps so I like the fact that Kurt starts 3rd. He should be a Top 5 car all night.

I'm benching Carl Edwards with 5 starts remaining. Yes he's strong on the 1.5 mile tracks but his practice numbers yesterday and today were just on par with the rest of the field. I can't see burning an Edwards start with uncertain data and a new track. Kurt's numbers were simply better and his dominance at Kansas I think will equate well here at Kentucky.

If you have him available, Tony Stewart seems to have the car to beat and I have him ranked #1 of all the A-List drivers. His speed over a long run is incredible. Kyle Busch has the bumps figured out and starting from the pole I believe he could lead a bunch of laps, his long run numbers weren't spectacular by any means but he's got more track time than anyone else on this tricky track this weekend. Matt Kenseth seems like his usual vanilla Top 10 self, and that's just not enough to get a start out of me.

B-LIST:
Brad Keselowski (9 Starts Remaining) - Mark me as officially drinking the Penske kool aid this weekend. I really like Kez as a sleeper this weekend. He's got his Kansas car here and he took Kurt Busch's setup and ran well, 2nd fastest in the 10-lap averages behind Stewart. His strong performance and win in the Nationwide race confirms that he's got the bumps figured out, I'm starting the deuce with confidence this week.

Joey Logano (7 Starts Remaining) - Put this pick with an asterik next to it, as I may switch out sliced bread depending on Mark Garrow's ESPN Crew Cheif notes tomorrow afternoon. Logano has been fair and his Nationwide performance wasn't that impressive either. Still I'm a believer that Logano will pull out a solid Top 15, potentially Top 10 run tomorrow night on his previous experience here.

My other 2 B-List options are Marcos Ambrose and Dale Earnhardt Jr. Unfortunately both of them were hard to read in the limited practice we saw today. Ambrose was very quick on a short run, but then fell off terribly over a longer stretch, and him and team mate Dinger being at the bottom of the 10-lap average charts does alarm me. However I've been burned in the past, as Ambrose was equally terrible in practice at Charlotte for the Coke 600, and then went out and had a strong performance. Ambrose does have a better starting position than Logano, and depending on what I see from the CC Notes on both of these drivers, the 9 could still make my team. Junior just did not run many long runs and is starting deep in the field. His short runs were decent but without seeing any long runs out of him I just don't have the confidence to burn 1 of my 3 remaining starts I have with Junebug.

Both Jeff Burton and David Reutimann have been impressive on the charts all weekend. However they are both high risk/high reward and neither has a good starting position. I would not be surprised to see either of these guys crack the Top 10, but I would also not be surprised to see these guys run outside the Top 20.

Neither Clint Bowyer or Ryan Newman have been that impressive this weekend, both have ranked deep in the charts most of the weekend and neither seems all that satisfied with their cars. Again, both of these guys start outside the Top 15 and I believe you can get stronger value out of both of these guys down the road, including Loudon coming up. Kasey Kahne has been all over the map in practice and is also hard to read, much like Ambrose, his short run speed is very impressive but the long runs seemed to fall off, as the 10-lap average showed today.

C-LIST:
David Ragan (4 Starts Remaining) - Somehow the C-List is out performing most of the B-List this weekend. Both Ragan and Menard have top 10 potential, and both start inside the Top 10. I am going with Ragan coming off his Daytona win and having the more "calm and collected" attitude of just trying to hold onto decent point finishes to carry him into the chase.

If you've burned through Ragan starts and still have a fair amount of Paul Menard starts left, you may want to go with the 27. Menard has been just 1 step behind Ragan all weekend on the speed charts on longer runs but still better than most of the B-List.


Regan Smith has been very impressive, but I just don't see him closing the deal on a Top 10 run. With how strong Ragan and Menard are this week there is just no reason to try to start save and use Regan. Kudos to Bobby Labonte who has also shown some speed this weekend, but no way I see him out performing the 6 or 27.


As always, follow http://www.FantasyNascarPreview.com Forum for the latest updates and last minute changes to the lineup. Good luck!