SONOMA - Data & Lockdown

Most people are surprised when they hear me say this, but as far as Fantasy Nascar goes, the track here at Sonoma I compare to Daytona and Talladega. The stats are all over the place and one wrong move or an ill placed bump from a competitor can place you deep into the 30s for a finishing position. In short, this race is the 5th biggest crapshoot on the circuit behind the 4 restrictor plate races.

Oddly enough, success here at Sonoma does not always translate to success at Watkins Glen. The Glen is much more high speed with sweeping corners while Sonoma is a lot tighter and slower which leads to more bumping and banging. They've brought the COT here the last 4 years, so let's first take a look at the past 4 years at Sonoma only:


AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION:
A-List:
J. Gordon - 6th
Stewart - 7th
Johnson - 9th
Biffle - 13th

B-List:
Montoya - 6th
Bowyer- 12th
Kahne - 15th
Newman - 15th

Vickers - 15th
Earnhardt Jr - 16th
Ambrose - 17th
Burton - 19th

C-List:
Mears - 18th
Said - 21st
R. Gordon - 23rd
Menard - 26th

T. Labonte - 26th
Ragan - 28th
B. Labonte - 29th
Smith - 34th




% of LAPS INSIDE the TOP 15:
A-List:
Stewart - 72%
Harvick - 69%
Johnson - 66%
J. Gordon - 63%

B-List:
Montoya - 79%
Ambrose - 74%
Newman - 63%
McMurray - 56%

Kahne - 53%
Burton - 49%
Bowyer - 48%
Earnhardt Jr. - 43%

C-List:
Said - 57%
R. Gordon - 55%
Mears - 35%
B. Labonte - 28%

Ragan - 16%
T. Labonte - 7%
Menard - 5%
Smith - 3%



OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Stewart - 105
Johnson - 104
J. Gordon - 96
Ky. Busch - 93

B-List:
Montoya - 108
Ambrose - 108
McMurray - 92
Kahne - 88

Newman - 85
Bowyer - 82
Burton - 81
Vickers - 78

C-List:
R. Gordon - 91
Said - 82
B. Labonte - 63
Mears - 60

Ragan - 51
T. Labonte - 50
Menard - 49
Smith - 36


Taking the data above, we will factor in some Watkins Glen statistics and current momentum into our 8 drivers we will roll off the trailer on Friday. This week we're back to the "regular" schedule of lockdown on Thursday night, with 1 practice on Friday followed by qualifying and 2 practice sessions on Saturday. Practices are hard to read on road courses since hardly anyone does a 10-lap average. Most drivers don't push hard in practice for fear of running off the track.


A-LIST:
Tony Stewart (8 Starts Remaining) - Tony basically leads all categories here at Sonoma, 4 for 4 on Top 10s here in the last 4 years, and when you look at Watkins Glen it is more of the same. Add into the fact that he might have a little extra fuel on his road racing fire after his F1 ride swap at Watkins Glen. Only thing I worry about is the transmission issues both SHR cars faced at Pocono.

Jeff Gordon (9 Starts Remaining) - Wonder Boy makes an excellent start save/backup to Stewart. Gordon has actually been a touch better than Stewart when it comes to finishes here over the last 4 years (also 4-4 on Top 10s). He also won and led the most laps at Pocono 2 weeks ago.


Jimmie Johnson has decent stats here at Sonoma but after the absolute embarrassing performance at Michigan and the unpredictability of Sonoma I'm not gambling another 48 start here. Kyle Busch could also get consideration but I'd also like to save him for safer bet tracks. The best option not named Gordon or Stewart this week is Kevin Harvick, Harvick had bad luck strike in 2009 and 2008, but his 2007 and 2010 performances of 2nd and 3rd show that he's a force here on the road courses, combined with being the 2nd highest A-List driver in % of Laps Inside the Top 15.


B-LIST:
Juan Pablo Montoya (6 Starts Remaining) - It's pretty much a no brainer who tops the B-List charts. Montoya is the best driver at this track the last 4 years.

Marcos Ambrose (9 Starts Remaining) - Ambrose rookie year had a hickup with a 42nd, but after that it's been 3rd and 6th.

The new chase rules makes the 42/9 auto-start mentality a little difficult to fully accept. Montoya is in the Top 20 in points, but more than a full race behind 10th place. Ambrose is 21st in points currently. Between here and Watkins Glen, this is extra pressure to go "all out" for the win, as the win could lock either of these drivers into the chase. This means these guys might push fuel strategy or pure aggression far over the breaking point and could devastate your team with poor finishes. Food for thought.

A.J. Allmendinger (8 Starts Remaining) - With everyone and their sister picking the 42/9 this week in their B-List, this is a good opportunity to pick differently and potentially gain on your competitors if the 42/9 faulter. If you've got a big enough lead in your group or you are way behind, you probably need to do something different than the 42/9 combination. Dinger could be your man, as he is averaging near a Top 10 finish at both Sonoma and The Glen over the past few races.

Kasey Kahne (6 Starts Remaining) - Much like Harvick in the A-List, when Kahne stays out of trouble, he's a race winner. 1st and a 4th the last 2 years here, and although there is turmoil in the Red Bull camp this week he could be a high risk/high reward if you want to take off the 42 or the 9.


Jamie McMurray has decent numbers here and at The Glen, but this team has absolutely nothing going for them and they are too much of a risk to bench the 42 or the 9. Clint Bowyer and Ryan Newman also have decent stats here but you can't risk them on such a crapshoot race.


C-LIST:
Boris Said (9 Starts Remaining) - I had a slight heart attack when I saw Landon Cassill appear on the initial entry list, that has since been corrected and Boris Said is confirmed by team officials as the driver of the 51 this week. This is the same team that took complete stock car rookie Jan Magnussen to a 12th place finish last year. Said does come at a slight risk as he's looking for a race win, but he usually the victim of hard racing if he does run into bad luck. He's the best C-List option in all categories.

Robby Gordon (9 Starts Remaining) - Not a pick for the weak at heart. Gordon has been terrible all year but the team admits they've been dumping the resources into the road course program and all put given up on the engine/aero program. Robby is a very high risk high reward driver, and it will take something pretty sporty for me to dump Said and put Robby on the team. Robby is more or less on the team for potential qualifying points as he is locked into the field.

The safe route is Bobby Labonte, you probably won't see or hear him mentioned on Sunday but he'll also probably score you a Top 25. Labonte could be a good pick if you want to go 42/9 for sure in your B-List, and hope your competition also has 42/9 AND picks a ringer in the C-List who busts out of the race (which often happens). Terry Labonte is also entered into the field in the #32 ride and is locked into the Top 35 in points, he's the same option as his brother. Regan Smith will likely be trying to just survive this weekend. I just simply can not see a reason to use David Ragan or Paul Menard here, both drivers are far more valuable at other tracks and you could use a Menard start at The Glen where he's performed better in the past (and the track usually is less risky on drivers wrecking).


No practice/qualifying break down here this week as I will be on business in Las Vegas all weekend. Check out www.FantasyNascarPreview.com for their breakdown and read their forum for the latest up-to-date opinions from the on track action.