MICHIGAN 1 - Data & Preview

The fuel mileage races continue as we head to the motor city this week. Don't be afraid to roll out sleepers as this race should play out much like Kansas did. Don't forget we also get to see the 2 practice sessions on Friday before we lockdown for Saturday qualifying. We will take a look at the loop data from the previous 3 years (6 races) at Michigan first:

AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION:
A-List:
Edwards - 5th
Stewart - 9th
Biffle - 10th
Kenseth - 10th

B-List:
Vickers - 5th
Earnhardt Jr. - 11th
Logano - 13th
Kahne - 15th

Bowyer - 17th
Burton - 17th
Martin - 18th
McMurray - 18th

C-List:
Ragan - 17th
Menard - 26th
Smith - 26th
Labonte - 34th


% of LAPS INSIDE the TOP 15:
A-List:
Edwards - 90%
Johnson - 87%
Biffle - 85%
Kenseth - 80%

B-List:
Vickers - 89%
Kahne - 62%
Earnhardt Jr. - 58%
Martin - 58%

Montoya - 52%
Burton - 50%
Bowyer - 47%
Reutimann - 47%

C-List:
Ragan - 52%
Menard - 9%
Smith - 4%
Labonte - 0.5%


OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Johnson - 115
Edwards - 108
Biffle - 104
Stewart - 100

B-List:
Vickers - 115
Earnhardt Jr - 93
Kahne - 91
Martin - 85

Logano - 82
Montoya - 80
Burton - 79
Bowyer - 78

C-List:
Ragan - 81
Smith - 54
Menard - 53
Labonte - 41


Also keep in mind results from Auto Club Speedway earlier this year. Although teams performances and momentum have changed since early the year, it's definitely worth looking at the numbers:

LAPS LED: Ky. Busch (151), Hamlin (15), Stewart (11), Newman (8), Montoya (7), Johnson (3), Harvick (1)

AVERAGE RUNNING POSITION: Ky. Busch (2nd), Stewart (5th), Vickers (6th), Bowyer (7th), Newman (8th), Johnson (8th), Kenseth (8th), Montoya (9th), Harvick (10th), Edwards (11th), Burton (11th), Truex Jr (12th), Menard (15th), Earnhardt Jr. (18th), Ragan (18th), Smith (25th), Bayne (30th)


A-LIST:
Carl Edwards ranks up there in the A-List once again this week in the house that Roush has owned for many years. 3 Top 5s in the last 4 races and a 6th place run at California this year. I am not worried about the engine problems he had last week, parts failures are very rare and there is no way you can bench Edwards over a part defect this week.

Jimmie Johnson is the best driver never to win here. He is tied for the highest driver rating at this track but has fallen victim to a few late race miscues that hurt his average finish. Johnson led late at California before a last lap pass by Kevin Harvick snatched the win away. Johnson is also coming in with great momentum and with plenty of 48 starts in the bank I will not hesitate to roll one out here at Michigan if he looks good after Friday practice.

Just behind the 48 is Roushkateer Matt Kenseth who is always a solid start on these kinds of tracks. Kenseth ran inside the Top 10 most of the day at California, owns a 10th place average finish here and runs inside the Top-15 for more than 80% of the laps. Kenseth could easily bump either of the two above if they have faulty practice numbers.

Kyle Busch dominated the race at California earlier this year, leading the most laps by a wide margin, although his numbers here at Michigan aren't as sporty, he will get consideration this weekend coming off a solid run at Pocono (and being able to keep his crew chief without suspension after failing post-race inspection).

Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin have poor momentum coming into this weekends events but a dynamite practice session could move them up the charts into a potential starting spot. Hamlin led 15 laps at California and Stewart ran inside the Top 5 most of the day before a late caution and pit strategy shuffled him back.


B-LIST:
Brian Vickers picked up the first win ever for Red Bull Racing here a few years ago and is tied for the best overall driver rating here along with Jimmie Johnson. This is a track where a start-save in the B-List could really help you in the long run, and Vickers could fit that bill perfectly. He ran very well at California earlier this year, but his up and down performance this year makes him a bit of a risk. Still, he would have to have a terrible practice for him to not at least make my Top 4 team heading into qualifying.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. is on fire and there is no reason to start-save him at this point in the year. "Points are points" as some of the experts say, so if you burn through your 9 starts with the 88 and he keeps racking up Top 5s-10s for you, that is just fine. This is statistically one of Junebug's best tracks and we've seen from his Kansas performance that he can save fuel, which makes Junior a near lock to start on Sunday.

Juan Pablo Montoya got his season turned around in Pocono with a strong run. The momentum should carry over into Michigan with the excitement of a road course race looming on the horizon as well. Montoya had a solid day at California and runs inside the Top 15 more than 50% of the time here at Michigan.

The final spot on my penciled in B-List before practice is a toss up between Kasey Kahne and Joey Logano. Both drivers were a little disappointing at Pocono but own decent stats here at Michigan. Kahne gets the ever so slight nod right now due to his 9th place finish at California earlier this year.

Clint Bowyer will get the bench this week unless he is outstanding in practice. This is not one of Bowyer's best tracks, and considering we could have a fuel mileage race and the results we had out of Bowyer in Kansas because of it makes it a risk to start the 33 this week. Mark Martin and Jeff Burton will continue to find my bench as week after week their numbers coming into the race are good, practice numbers are good, but neither can put together a good finish when it comes to the race.


C-LIST:
We continue to burn through David Ragan starts but this track is another where you simply can't park him, and he is a lock to at least make my C-List going into qualifying. Ragan by far has the best numbers compared to anyone else on the C-List here at Michigan and he's in strong Roush Ford equipment. This isn't the same team that could barely run inside the Top 20 at California, and I expect a much better performance here at Michigan.

The C-List is somewhat open on who to pair with Ragan. I am fortunate enough to have 7 starts remaining with Paul Menard and Menard isn't a bad option, coming in with good momentum from Pocono (a track he's terrible at) and having a sold Top-15 day at California earlier this year. Regan Smith also comes in with momentum and his numbers here at Michigan are about on pace with Menard, and that is with Smith in arguably lesser equipment over the past 3 seasons. Bobby Labonte looked like a start-and-park all weekend at Pocono, and he is just not an option on these bigger tracks as the team appears to lack horsepower and aerodynamics. Trevor Bayne returns this week in the 21 and could be an save option, but be forewarned as I went with Bayne earlier this year at California where he smacked the wall twice on his own and struggled to crack the Top 30 all day.


Check back here Friday evening with the post practice analysis and lockdown team heading into Michigan on Sunday.