We're back in full force this weekend for the tricky triangle in Pennsylvania. Again this week we get to see 2 practice sessions before we lockdown for qualifying on Saturday, so all of our picks are subject to change due to practice performance.
Since Pocono is unlike any other track on the circuit (although some comparisons can be made to Indy), we will look at the Loop Data from the last 3 years (6 races):
AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION:
A-List:
Johnson - 7th
Edwards - 8th
Stewart - 9th
Harvick - 10th
B-List:
Kahne - 12th
Burton - 12th
Martin - 13th
Newman - 13th
Bowyer - 14th
Vickers - 14th
Truex Jr - 17th
Montoya - 19th
C-List:
Ragan - 20th
Menard - 25th
Smith - 26th
Labonte - 29th
% of LAPS INSIDE the TOP 15:
A-List:
Johnson - 84%
Biffle - 83%
Edwards - 81%
Hamlin - 78%
B-List:
Kahne - 81%
Martin - 79%
Vickers - 73%
Burton - 61%
Newman - 60%
Earnhardt Jr - 54%
Allmendinger - 48%
Bowyer - 45%
C-List:
Ragan - 20%
Smith - 10%
Labonte - 9%
Menard - 3%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Johnson - 117
Edwards - 110
Hamlin - 110
Stewart - 101
B-List:
Kahne - 108
Martin - 97
Burton - 91
Vickers - 89
Newman - 86
Bowyer - 82
Earnhardt Jr - 81
Montoya - 77
C-List:
Ragan - 65
Smith - 55
Menard - 52
Labonte - 50
We will weigh this data against the 2010 Indy results and recent momentum as well. Remember, Pocono is known for long stretches of green flag racing, and we could very well see a fuel mileage event unfold for the 2nd weekend in a row.
A-LIST:
This is a great track for Jimmie Johnson. He was 5th and 10th here last year, and he led the most laps before falling to 10th in the August race. Johnson also ran well at Indy before a late race pit miscue sent him to the rear. There are some that might not want to risk a Johnson start on a potential fuel mileage race, but his numbers here lead all competitors, so he will be penciled into our team this week.
Denny Hamlin dominated this race a year ago, winning and leading the most laps, and then backed that up with a 5th place performance in the August race. Hamlin doesn't appear to be even close to a 9-start driver this year, so Hamlin is a good start-save option this weekend.
When the summer months hit and the tracks get hot and slick, Tony Stewart begins to shine. Smoke was also arguably the most impressive large flat track racer last year, 5th in the June Pocono race, 3rd in the August Pocono race, and 2nd at Indy. He also tends to qualify well at these tracks, tied with Jimmie Johnson as the top average qualifier at Pocono with a 7th place average. These 3 drivers above are the ones I will keep an eye on the most come Friday.
The Roush Fenway bunch also gets consideration, but with how valuable Carl Edwards has been on the 1.5 cookie cutters its hard to burn another start with him at Pocono. Team mate Greg Biffle won the August race, finished 3rd at Indy, and was caught up in the big backstretch wreck in the June race here last year, so he is another driver you can keep an eye on.
B-LIST:
Only one standout in the B-List this week and that is the Red Bull ride of Kasey Kahne. Kahne's success has been in the previous years as his 2010 results weren't that impressive, getting caught up in the big wreck in June, and only ending with a 19th in the August race and a 13th at Indy. Even so, Kahne runs towards the front more than any other driver in the B-List, and his momentum continues to roll, so Kahne will get consideration this week. Likewise his team mate Brian Vickers could be a bit of a sleeper option this week. Vickers did not get a chance to run any of the larger flat tracks last year but he really enjoys this style of racing and his numbers reflect that.
Juan Pablo Montoya has been lost out on track in previous weeks, but this is as good of a place as any to get this team turned back around. Montoya finished 8th in the June race and 16th in the August race (I believe he had a late pit road penalty, he started 2nd and led laps in the August race). Of course Montoya also dominate the Indy race before crashing out last year as well. Similar to Montoya, his old buddy Ryan Newman needs to get things turned around, and Pocono is a strong track for Newman as well. 12th and 14th here at Pocono last year, 17th at Indy with a Top 10 start at all 3 tracks.
Much like Johnson in the A-List, Clint Bowyer is an option here with decent previous performance, but much like we saw last week a fuel mileage race could burn a Bowyer start with a poor finish. Bowyer was 9th in the June race after starting 2nd and leading laps, and 15th in the August race after coming from the rear of the field. Back that up with a 4th at Indy (after starting 6th) and depending on the number of starts you have left, Bowyer needs consideration this week.
Surprisingly his numbers don't show up on the radar, but Joey Logano was very impressive at the larger flat tracks last year. Logano as 13th in the June race, and Top 5 in the August race before getting punted by Harvick in the closing laps. Logano was also 9th at Indy last year.
One more sleeper to keep your eye on this week is A.J. Allmendinger. Although he did not live up to the sleeper hype last weekend, you have to at least give The Dinger a glance during Friday practice. A.J. was 10th in the June race, had a Top 15 run going before falling to 24th late in the August race, and was 16th at Indy.
C-LIST:
This is one of the tracks where we can get away from burning down our Ragan and Menard starts and look elsewhere. I'm giving Regan Smith heavy consideration to get the starting job this week. Regan was 18th in the June race, 21st in the August race, and had a Top 20 run going at Indy before mechanical problems took him behind the wall. I'd be happy with a 20th out of Smith.
I'm crossing my fingers that Bobby Labonte will show up big in practice, as I'd love to get a start out of him. This is a handling kind of race track where I think Labonte can accell, but he needs to show me something in practice and qualifying.
David Ragan is just far too valuable to risk a fuel mileage start here at Pocono, he's only been Top 20 material here and I think Regan Smith will be in his ballpark this weekend, so its time to save Ragan. Paul Menard ended up with good finishes here last year but it was due to fuel mileage and avoiding the big wreck. This is exactly why we include the % of Laps in the Top 15 stat, as you can see, Menard has a dismal 3% of his laps inside the Top 15. There is an outside chance that if Labonte is just terrible and Menard really impresses in the practices that Menard can make the team, but he will more than likely sit this week.
Sam Hornish Jr. is an option this week as he is in the #38 Front Row Motorsports Ford while Travis Kvapil focuses on the truck race in Texas. This team lacks the horsepower and pit speed to keep up all day, and I do not believe Hornish will be of any value in the C. I'd be shocked if Hornish cracks the Top 25 at any point in the race.
Our very tentative team going into the Friday practices:
Denny Hamlin (8 Starts Remaining)
Tony Stewart (8 Starts Remaining)
Kasey Kahne (6 Starts Remaining)
Juan Pablo Montoya (7 Starts Remaining)
Ryan Newman (6 Starts Remaining)
Joey Logano (7 Starts Remaining)
Regan Smith (6 Starts Remaining)
Bobby Labonte (7 Starts Remaining)
We will post a full practice breakdown on Friday with our final lockdown team, so check back then!
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