MICHIGAN 1 - Lockdown

Practice is over and lockdown comes tonight, I'm doing an abbreviated lockdown review for this race due to a time crunch:

A-LIST:
Jimmie Johnson (8 Starts Remaining) - Johnson usually doesn't show his hand much in practice, and after looky shaky in the 1st practice, he made multiple long runs and looked very consistent over those long runs (which we typically see here at Michigan). Add in a strategy race and I like Knaus in my corner. It's a bit of a risk to use the 48 on a fuel mileage track but not many are in his league on the charts, so I'm rolling with the 48.

Kevin Harvick (7 Starts Remaining) - Harvick's time basically mirrored Johnson, and Harvick was also the lead A-List driver in Qualifying trim. Harvick could nail down some Q points, and if Johnson blows it in qualifying there is slight potential Harvick could get the start, he is indeed Happy Harvick with a really great car in practice.

Roush Fenway is surprisingly up and down, really great short run speed but the long run speed fell off, bad. I'm running low enough of Carl Edwards starts so he sits, Matt Kenseth was a disappointment on the longer runs. With Joey Logano blowing a motor, I'm not touching Kyle Busch or Denny Hamlin this week. Kurt Busch had a "miserable" car in happy hour so he also finds the bench.


B-LIST:
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (4 Starts Remaining) - Holy cow Junior Nation will be on their feet early and often on Sunday. No way you can sit him here, Junior is happy with the car, can run anywhere on the track, and has a ton of speed. Absolute lock no matter where he starts on Sunday.

Kasey Kahne (6 Starts Remaining) - Kahne really impressed in Happy Hour after a not so good P1, one of the fastest cars overall on the track in lap averages.

Brian Vickers (9 Starts Remaining) - Not quite as fast as Kahne but really consistent, if Vickers out-qualified his team mate he could get the start save this week. I will also rely on crew chief notes on Sunday to make my determination which Red Bull car gets to start next to the 88.

A.J. Allmendinger (8 Starts Remaining) - This is more for qualifying points as Dinger was 2nd fastest on the Q charts. Dinger wasn't that bad in race runs either, about a tenth or so off of Vickers. Outside chance that if both Red Bull cars are junk in qualifying and Dinger starts up front that the 43 could get a start.

I said that I would start Juan Pablo Montoya the whole session until right at the very end, he could well prove me wrong as he was slow but he was testing the high line earlier than anyone else was in P2. I've got 6 starts left, 2 of which will burn on the road courses and probably another 2 on the big flat tracks of Pocono and Indy. That leaves me 2 more starts with Montoya for the rest of the year, and a 10th place at Fontana and average numbers here doesn't constitute using 1 of those 2 starts I have.

Mark Martin was absolutely on fire in the 2nd practice session, by far the best car on track. And to show how little faith I have in him, he still finds my bench. He is usually good in practice (but not THIS good), still, they find a way to lose the handle, and on a hot greasy track like we should have on Sunday I am electing to bench Martin.

Clint Bowyer found something late in practice but the 88/83/4 are still better on track, so no need to risk a valuable Bowyer start. Ryan Newman is out to lunch, Joey Logano blew up, and Marcos Ambrose, Brad Keselowski, and David Reutimann didn't prove to me they could be much better than a Top 15.


C-LIST:
David Ragan (4 Starts Remaining) - Ragan shows why he is such a scary pick still after he ran over Jeff Burton in practice. Still the car is #1 overall in the Q charts, and he freely admits he thinks he has a race winner in race trim. Good enough for me to give him a shot going into qualifying.

Paul Menard (7 Starts Remaining) - Menard also impressed, but more in the short run. I think the 6 is just slightly better on the longer stretches, but I will be looking for an excuse to save 1 of my 4 Ragan starts, so the 27 could easily make the starting spot, they are very close on the charts.

Regan Smith isn't bad but about 1-2 tenths off of the 27/6, Trevor Bayne didn't make enough long runs for my liking today, but was really fast in the runs he made. I need him to prove himself coming back off of illness and his terrible Fontana performance, so Bayne gets to ride the pine this week.