Friday, June 10, 2011

POCONO 1 - Lockdown

P1 and P2 are in the books, let's look at each sessesion:

Rank Car# Driver Team
Sponsor
Manu
Best
Speed
Best
Time
Ave
Speed
Fast
Lap
Laps
Run
1 99 Carl Edwards Kellogg / Cheez-It Ford 167.729 53.658 162.805 1 14
2 27 Paul Menard Pittsburgh Paints / Menards Chevy 167.648 53.684 159.622 1 18
3 48 Jimmie Johnson Lowe's Chevy 167.454 53.746 162.785 1 24
4 14 Tony Stewart Mobil 1 / Office Depot Chevy 167.264 53.807 163.308 19 19
5 22 Kurt Busch Shell / Pennzoil Dodge 166.728 53.980 163.546 1 12
6 39 Ryan Newman Haas Automation Chevy 166.725 53.981 163.171 15 17
7 2 Brad Keselowski Miller Lite Dodge 166.636 54.010 160.726 1 28
8 42 Juan Pablo Montoya Target Chevy 166.392 54.089 162.772 1 19
9 24 Jeff Gordon DuPont Chevy 166.334 54.108 164.194 1 12
10 11 Denny Hamlin FedEx Ground Toyota 166.291 54.122 163.680 1 13
11 16 Greg Biffle 3M Ford 166.193 54.154 164.917 1 13
12 31 Jeff Burton Caterpillar Chevy 166.104 54.183 162.901 19 19
13 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. National Guard / AMP Energy Chevy 166.021 54.210 163.816 16 18
14 18 Kyle Busch M&M's Toyota 166.015 54.212 161.552 15 15
15 5 Mark Martin Farmers Insurance / GoDaddy.com Chevy 165.981 54.223 162.241 16 16
16 6 David Ragan UPS Ford 165.981 54.223 162.872 20 20
17 20 Joey Logano The Home Depot Toyota 165.822 54.275 162.928 16 16
18 4 Kasey Kahne Red Bull Toyota 165.804 54.281 162.284 23 23
19 17 Matt Kenseth Affliction Clothing Live Fast Ford 165.697 54.316 163.209 16 16
20 43 A.J. Allmendinger Medallion Financial Ford 165.587 54.352 163.436 16 16
21 29 Kevin Harvick Okuma Chevy 165.329 54.437 163.414 15 15
22 83 Brian Vickers Red Bull Toyota 165.238 54.467 162.972 16 16
23 9 Marcos Ambrose Stanley Ford 165.059 54.526 162.866 16 16
24 1 Jamie McMurray McDonald's Chevy 164.944 54.564 163.273 11 13
25 00 David Reutimann Aaron's Dream Machine Toyota 164.546 54.696 162.468 15 15
26 56 Martin Truex Jr. NAPA Auto Parts Toyota 164.459 54.725 161.614 1 21
27 66 Michael McDowell HP Racing LLC Toyota 164.420 54.738 163.736 1 3
28 78 Regan Smith Furniture Row Racing Chevy 164.312 54.774 162.244 12 17
29 34 David Gilliland Taco Bell Ford 164.300 54.778 161.375 12 12
30 33 Clint Bowyer Cheerios / Hamburger Helper Chevy 163.806 54.943 162.125 9 9
31 38 Sam Hornish Jr. Long John Silver's Ford 163.621 55.005 159.857 13 13
32 46 J.J. Yeley Red Line Oil Chevy 163.446 55.064 163.446 1 1
33 36 Dave Blaney Golden Corral Chevy 163.242 55.133 160.473 13 13
34 87 Joe Nemechek AM FM Energy.com / Pellet & Wood 162.893 55.251 162.893 1 1
35 47 Bobby Labonte Clorox / Kleenex Toyota 162.602 55.350 158.782 9 9
36 13 Casey Mears GEICO Toyota 162.232 55.476 160.709 1 17
37 51 Landon Cassill Security Benefit / Thank A Teacher Chevy 162.200 55.487 160.423 14 15
38 81 Scott Riggs Whitney's Collision Chevy 161.679 55.666 160.954 5 5
39 60 Mike Skinner Big Red Toyota 161.337 55.784 160.207 4 8
40 71 Andy Lally TRG Motorsports Ford 161.218 55.825 157.279 21 21
41 37 Tony Raines BlackCatFireworks.com Ford 160.780 55.977 159.265 1 5
42 32 Mike Bliss U.S. Chrome / Southern Pride Trucking Ford 160.568 56.051 158.332 2 22
43 50 TJ Bell Green Smoke Toyota 160.448 56.093 158.967 12 12
44 7 Scott Wimmer Speed Energy / Harris Teeter Dodge 159.552 56.408 159.267 1 3

P1 Overall Lap Averages, a bit hard to read since there is a mix of race and qualifying trim:

A-List:
Biffle - 54.57 (13 Laps)
Gordon - 54.81 (12)
Hamlin - 54.98 (13)
Harvick - 55.08 (15)
Stewart - 55.11 (19)
Kenseth - 55.14 (16)
Edwards - 55.28 (14)
Johnson - 55.29 (24)
Ky. Busch - 55.71 (15)

B-List:
Earnhardt Jr - 54.94 (18 Laps)
Allmendinger - 55.07 (16)
Newman - 55.16 (17)
Vickers - 55.22 (16)
Logano - 55.24 (16)
Ambrose - 55.26 (16)
Montoya - 55.29 (19)
Kahne - 55.46 (23)
Martin - 55.47 (16)

C-List:
Ragan - 55.26 (20 Laps)
Smith - 55.47 (17)
Gilliland - 55.77 (12)
Mears - 56.00 (17)
Blaney - 56.08 (13)
Hornish - 56.30 (13)
Menard - 56.38 (18)
Labonte - 56.68 (9) 



P2 was all race runs and is much more of an indication on performance for the race, here are the numbers from P2:


Rank Car# Driver Team
Sponsor
Manu
Best
Speed
Best
Time
Ave
Speed
Fast
Lap
Laps
Run
1 11 Denny Hamlin FedEx Ground Toyota 166.125 54.176 162.716 1 34
2 83 Brian Vickers Red Bull Toyota 166.067 54.195 161.688 1 33
3 99 Carl Edwards Kellogg / Cheez-It Ford 166.030 54.207 162.344 17 17
4 2 Brad Keselowski Miller Lite Dodge 165.926 54.241 161.850 1 36
5 48 Jimmie Johnson Lowe's Chevy 165.700 54.315 162.195 1 42
6 5 Mark Martin Farmers Insurance / GoDaddy.com Chevy 165.615 54.343 158.349 1 39
7 00 David Reutimann Aaron's Dream Machine Toyota 165.554 54.363 162.466 1 8
8 39 Ryan Newman Haas Automation Chevy 165.529 54.371 162.098 1 37
9 22 Kurt Busch Shell / Pennzoil Dodge 165.456 54.395 162.064 1 12
10 31 Jeff Burton Caterpillar Chevy 165.399 54.414 161.820 1 35
11 42 Juan Pablo Montoya Target Chevy 165.329 54.437 162.536 1 24
12 14 Tony Stewart Mobil 1 / Office Depot Chevy 165.304 54.445 162.585 1 27
13 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. National Guard / AMP Energy Chevy 165.122 54.505 162.726 1 33
14 27 Paul Menard Pittsburgh Paints / Menards Chevy 165.113 54.508 161.779 1 25
15 1 Jamie McMurray McDonald's Chevy 165.086 54.517 161.373 1 40
16 4 Kasey Kahne Red Bull Toyota 165.044 54.531 161.768 1 38
17 16 Greg Biffle 3M Ford 164.853 54.594 162.115 1 24
18 18 Kyle Busch M&M's Toyota 164.702 54.644 161.691 1 33
19 43 A.J. Allmendinger Medallion Financial Ford 164.681 54.651 161.499 1 24
20 24 Jeff Gordon DuPont Chevy 164.663 54.657 162.014 1 24
21 78 Regan Smith Furniture Row Racing Chevy 164.618 54.672 162.086 1 34
22 6 David Ragan UPS Ford 164.597 54.679 162.114 1 26
23 33 Clint Bowyer Cheerios / Hamburger Helper Chevy 164.525 54.703 162.374 1 28
24 20 Joey Logano The Home Depot Toyota 164.360 54.758 161.974 2 30
25 29 Kevin Harvick Okuma Chevy 164.201 54.811 161.991 1 27
26 38 Sam Hornish Jr. Long John Silver's Ford 164.093 54.847 161.837 9 11
27 56 Martin Truex Jr. NAPA Auto Parts Toyota 164.060 54.858 162.176 1 23
28 87 Joe Nemechek AM FM Energy.com / Pellet & Wood 163.976 54.886 162.806 4 4
29 13 Casey Mears GEICO Toyota 163.943 54.897 162.040 1 11
30 46 J.J. Yeley Red Line Oil Chevy 163.720 54.972 162.441 6 6
31 66 Michael McDowell HP Racing LLC Toyota 163.624 55.004 163.624 1 1
32 37 Tony Raines BlackCatFireworks.com Ford 163.494 55.048 162.158 1 5
33 17 Matt Kenseth Affliction Clothing Live Fast Ford 163.360 55.093 161.827 19 33
34 51 Landon Cassill Security Benefit / Thank A Teacher Chevy 163.301 55.113 158.966 21 21
35 9 Marcos Ambrose Stanley Ford 163.248 55.131 161.768 1 26
36 32 Mike Bliss U.S. Chrome / Southern Pride Trucking Ford 162.964 55.227 159.165 1 23
37 34 David Gilliland Taco Bell Ford 162.781 55.289 160.973 1 15
38 60 Mike Skinner Big Red Toyota 162.370 55.429 161.356 6 6
39 71 Andy Lally TRG Motorsports Ford 162.344 55.438 161.664 11 11
40 47 Bobby Labonte Clorox / Kleenex Toyota 161.937 55.577 153.236 18 19
41 36 Dave Blaney Golden Corral Chevy 161.859 55.604 160.163 2 16
42 81 Scott Riggs Whitney's Collision Chevy 161.757 55.639 161.155 4 6
43 50 TJ Bell Green Smoke Toyota 161.458 55.742 160.029 14 14
44 7 Scott Wimmer Speed Energy / Harris Teeter Dodge 159.815 56.315 158.075 2 11


The 10-Lap Averages:


Rank Car# Driver From Lap To Lap Avg Speed Overall Rank
1 11 Denny Hamlin 19 28 162.809 1
2 48 Jimmie Johnson 16 25 162.634 5
3 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 22 31 162.351 13
4 27 Paul Menard 1 10 162.068 14
5 2 Brad Keselowski 20 29 161.795 4
6 1 Jamie McMurray 31 40 161.639 15
7 4 Kasey Kahne 18 27 161.342 16
8 83 Brian Vickers 17 26 160.978 2
9 5 Mark Martin 17 26 160.569 6


And the overall lap averages:

A-List:
Hamlin - 55.31 (34 Laps)
Stewart - 55.37 (24)
Edwards - 55.44 (17)
Johnson - 55.49 (42)

B-List:
Earnhardt Jr - 55.31 (33 Laps)
Montoya - 55.37 (24)
Bowyer - 55.46 (25)
Newman - 55.52 (37)
Logano - 55.56 (30)
Kahne - 55.64 (36)
Vickers - 55.66 (32)
Allmendinger - 55.74 (20)

C-List:
Ragan - 55.52 (26 Laps)
Smith - 55.53 (34)
Mears - 55.54 (11)
Hornish - 55.61 (11)
Menard - 55.63 (25)



With all that in mind and our previous data in the bank, our lineup is set as the following:


A-LIST:
Tony Stewart (8 Starts Remaining) - Likely our starter for the race on Sunday, he laid down a good qualifying lap and he's got one of the best lap averages of any driver on track this weekend. This is a hot slick track that is going to take skill in shifting and sliding the car around, and I like Stewart to be the man on Sunday.


Denny Hamlin (8 Starts Remaining) - Much like Stewart, fast on the long runs and also could put up a number in qualifying. I'm not as big on the Toyota's and their fuel mileage as I am on the Chevy's. He's great on this track and has decent momentum coming in with a couple of Top 10 runs.


Just missing is Jimmie Johnson who was up and down on the practice chart, definitely a potential race winner but I'm seeing more consistent numbers out of the 14 and 11. Carl Edwards is fast on a short run but not as impressive on the longer runs so I can't justify burning another 99 start. My A-List sleeper is Kevin Harvick, not great on the charts but seems very happy with his ride.




B-LIST:
Dale Earnhardt Jr (5 Starts Remaining) - Junebug is absolutely flying around the track. He is one of the best cars in the entire field on a long run and is an absolute must start on your team this week. He's very happy with his car and other teams in the garage are commenting on how fast the 88 is. To give you an idea how good Hamlin is, Junior's only complaint is that he can't keep up with the 11.

Juan Pablo Montoya (7 Starts Remaining) - Juan has a lot of confidence in his car and his long runs seem to be really strong as well. Much like Stewart, I like a guy who can slide around and shift and that fits Montoya to the T. He's got good short run speed as well and could grab qualifying points.

Ryan Newman (6 Starts Remaining) - Newman makes the team for potential of qualifying points and if one of the above really chunks it in qualifying and the crew chief notes bring up some sort of shocking information. Newman is just a little behind the 42 and 88 to me but ranks really high on potential of grabbing Q points.

Brian Vickers (9 Starts Remaining) - Got to throw deep and put 1 sleeper in there right? Vickers likes this track and his lap averages are pretty decent as well. I doubt he'll get the start but I've got enough confidence in my Top 3 to slide a sleeper into the 4th spot as a potential surprise.

Just missing is Joey Logano, seems pleased with his car but was still making big changes on it late in P2, plus his bad mojo is keeping me away still. Kasey Kahne and A.J. Allmendinger also just miss the lineup, decent numbers but not enough to get into my Top 4.


C-LIST:

Regan Smith (6 Starts Remaining) - Lock. There is no other option in the C List not named David Ragan. Smith is right on par with Ragan's numbers, and the two of them are far and away better than the rest of the C-List. Start Smith with confidence this week.


Paul Menard (7 Starts Remaining) - For qualifying points only, under no circumstance should you start Paul Menard. His long runs fall off, dramatically. He's got great short run numbers but the car gets exponentially worse as the laps click off, and this race will have many long green flag runs.


Bobby Labonte looks terrible and can not make your team this week. I still wouldn't touch Sam Hornish Jr, if you need to get another name besides Smith, Ragan, Menard, I'd go Casey Mears who had a decent stint in P2.

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