Easy week for us here at Fantasy Nascar Geeker. Get out the trusty ballcap, put in the names, and draw them out. Starting position and practice mean almost nothing here, and due to the repave, the previous stats here at Daytona are also worthless. It will be hot in Florida but the new surface should provide plenty of grip at night.
We do get to see practices on Thursday before locking down Thursday night, so that could help narrow down the at random choices for this week. In the preview we will focus on not only who to start, but who you must bench.
A-LIST:
No doubt Kurt Busch is on a roll and had a very strong car here in February. The double deuce will probably be a popular pick because of those 2 factors. So depending on where you are in your own league standings, you could pick Kurt with the majority of your league, or you could go another option. Biggest downfall to Kurt is the lack of Dodge team mates in the field.
Another popular pick will be Kevin Harvick. Rightfully so as RCR is still a strong force at the plate tracks, and there is none better at playing the waiting game and getting through the field late than Harvick. Hendrick power is also prominent, especially in qualifying. That being said, Jeff Gordon and his momentum is another wise choice heading into the weekend.
It will be interesting to see if the FR9 engines shine this week with the warmer temperatures, so keep an eye on Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth.
Those that have struggled at the plate tracks this year include JGR Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin and also Tony Stewart.
Drivers who you would consider "9 start" drivers you should also avoid this weekend. Even though Carl Edwards has a 2nd and a 6th at the plate tracks this year, he is far too valuable on the 1.5 mile tracks to burn here. Likewise even though Jimmie Johnson got shoved into the lead at Talladega, he is another you should save for safer races.
B-LIST:
The B-List is wide open as far as selections, you could make an argument for just about any driver. I personally won't be risking starts with Clint Bowyer, Ryan Newman, or Dale Earnhardt Jr. Yes, that's right, the 88 needs to find your bench at Talladega. Like most of us, Juniors impressive season on the 1.5 mile tracks has burned a lot of his starts, so I will not be using another 88 start here. Bowyer and Newman also have better value elsewhere and are probably 9 start guys who I will leave sitting this week.
If you're on board with the FR9 engine being the hot ticket this weekend, then you're options are A.J. Allmendinger and Marcos Ambrose. While both are coming off of strong runs at Sonoma, Dinger is the stronger choice of the two as the 43 has scored a pair of 11th place finishes at plate tracks this year.
The EGR are another pair of drivers that could be a popular pick this weekend. Jamie McMurray is known for his strong plate performances, however this year he's been a disappointment in the 2 car drafts finishing outside the Top 15. Team mate Juan Pablo Montoya however has had a decent plate record this year, but do keep in mind JPM wrecked half the field at Sonoma, don't look for many to help the 42 this weekend.
I just can't find a reason to start Mark Martin or Jeff Burton at any other tracks outside of these 2 remaining plate races, so this would be as good a time as any to use a start with these 2 considering their horsepower and qualifying point potential. Brad Keselowski has a pretty solid career dating all the way back into the Nationwide series on plate tracks, and he's coming off a great run at Sonoma, however I'm still not a fan of him and Busch being on Dodge island by themselves.
C-LIST:
Although you may be tempted to, do not start Paul Menard or David Ragan here. Both are far superior to their C-List competition at the other tracks on the circuit and you can not afford to use them and have a poor finish out of either one of them.
The popular choice will be Trevor Bayne due to his Daytona 500 victory. History rarely repeats itself on the plate tracks as of late and I will be looking to go off the beaten path in the C-List if possible. Regan Smith will probably be my guy, as he's an excellent plate racer and has ECR power under the hood. If you want to go deep sleeper, David Gilliland has been impressive on the plate tracks and is coming off a great Sonoma performance. I'll also give a slight look at Dave Blaney who's got some decent equipment and sponsorship to go the distance at Daytona. Bobby Labonte wasn't much to write home about at Talladega and I don't think he'll be a factor this weekend either.
Check back on Thursday for a practice breakdown and the 8 drivers we're rolling off the trailer for the Coke Zero 400.
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
SONOMA - Data & Lockdown
Most people are surprised when they hear me say this, but as far as Fantasy Nascar goes, the track here at Sonoma I compare to Daytona and Talladega. The stats are all over the place and one wrong move or an ill placed bump from a competitor can place you deep into the 30s for a finishing position. In short, this race is the 5th biggest crapshoot on the circuit behind the 4 restrictor plate races.
Oddly enough, success here at Sonoma does not always translate to success at Watkins Glen. The Glen is much more high speed with sweeping corners while Sonoma is a lot tighter and slower which leads to more bumping and banging. They've brought the COT here the last 4 years, so let's first take a look at the past 4 years at Sonoma only:
AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION:
A-List:
J. Gordon - 6th
Stewart - 7th
Johnson - 9th
Biffle - 13th
B-List:
Montoya - 6th
Bowyer- 12th
Kahne - 15th
Newman - 15th
Vickers - 15th
Earnhardt Jr - 16th
Ambrose - 17th
Burton - 19th
C-List:
Mears - 18th
Said - 21st
R. Gordon - 23rd
Menard - 26th
T. Labonte - 26th
Ragan - 28th
B. Labonte - 29th
Smith - 34th
% of LAPS INSIDE the TOP 15:
A-List:
Stewart - 72%
Harvick - 69%
Johnson - 66%
J. Gordon - 63%
B-List:
Montoya - 79%
Ambrose - 74%
Newman - 63%
McMurray - 56%
Kahne - 53%
Burton - 49%
Bowyer - 48%
Earnhardt Jr. - 43%
C-List:
Said - 57%
R. Gordon - 55%
Mears - 35%
B. Labonte - 28%
Ragan - 16%
T. Labonte - 7%
Menard - 5%
Smith - 3%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Stewart - 105
Johnson - 104
J. Gordon - 96
Ky. Busch - 93
B-List:
Montoya - 108
Ambrose - 108
McMurray - 92
Kahne - 88
Newman - 85
Bowyer - 82
Burton - 81
Vickers - 78
C-List:
R. Gordon - 91
Said - 82
B. Labonte - 63
Mears - 60
Ragan - 51
T. Labonte - 50
Menard - 49
Smith - 36
Taking the data above, we will factor in some Watkins Glen statistics and current momentum into our 8 drivers we will roll off the trailer on Friday. This week we're back to the "regular" schedule of lockdown on Thursday night, with 1 practice on Friday followed by qualifying and 2 practice sessions on Saturday. Practices are hard to read on road courses since hardly anyone does a 10-lap average. Most drivers don't push hard in practice for fear of running off the track.
A-LIST:
Tony Stewart (8 Starts Remaining) - Tony basically leads all categories here at Sonoma, 4 for 4 on Top 10s here in the last 4 years, and when you look at Watkins Glen it is more of the same. Add into the fact that he might have a little extra fuel on his road racing fire after his F1 ride swap at Watkins Glen. Only thing I worry about is the transmission issues both SHR cars faced at Pocono.
Jeff Gordon (9 Starts Remaining) - Wonder Boy makes an excellent start save/backup to Stewart. Gordon has actually been a touch better than Stewart when it comes to finishes here over the last 4 years (also 4-4 on Top 10s). He also won and led the most laps at Pocono 2 weeks ago.
Jimmie Johnson has decent stats here at Sonoma but after the absolute embarrassing performance at Michigan and the unpredictability of Sonoma I'm not gambling another 48 start here. Kyle Busch could also get consideration but I'd also like to save him for safer bet tracks. The best option not named Gordon or Stewart this week is Kevin Harvick, Harvick had bad luck strike in 2009 and 2008, but his 2007 and 2010 performances of 2nd and 3rd show that he's a force here on the road courses, combined with being the 2nd highest A-List driver in % of Laps Inside the Top 15.
B-LIST:
Juan Pablo Montoya (6 Starts Remaining) - It's pretty much a no brainer who tops the B-List charts. Montoya is the best driver at this track the last 4 years.
Marcos Ambrose (9 Starts Remaining) - Ambrose rookie year had a hickup with a 42nd, but after that it's been 3rd and 6th.
The new chase rules makes the 42/9 auto-start mentality a little difficult to fully accept. Montoya is in the Top 20 in points, but more than a full race behind 10th place. Ambrose is 21st in points currently. Between here and Watkins Glen, this is extra pressure to go "all out" for the win, as the win could lock either of these drivers into the chase. This means these guys might push fuel strategy or pure aggression far over the breaking point and could devastate your team with poor finishes. Food for thought.
A.J. Allmendinger (8 Starts Remaining) - With everyone and their sister picking the 42/9 this week in their B-List, this is a good opportunity to pick differently and potentially gain on your competitors if the 42/9 faulter. If you've got a big enough lead in your group or you are way behind, you probably need to do something different than the 42/9 combination. Dinger could be your man, as he is averaging near a Top 10 finish at both Sonoma and The Glen over the past few races.
Kasey Kahne (6 Starts Remaining) - Much like Harvick in the A-List, when Kahne stays out of trouble, he's a race winner. 1st and a 4th the last 2 years here, and although there is turmoil in the Red Bull camp this week he could be a high risk/high reward if you want to take off the 42 or the 9.
Jamie McMurray has decent numbers here and at The Glen, but this team has absolutely nothing going for them and they are too much of a risk to bench the 42 or the 9. Clint Bowyer and Ryan Newman also have decent stats here but you can't risk them on such a crapshoot race.
C-LIST:
Boris Said (9 Starts Remaining) - I had a slight heart attack when I saw Landon Cassill appear on the initial entry list, that has since been corrected and Boris Said is confirmed by team officials as the driver of the 51 this week. This is the same team that took complete stock car rookie Jan Magnussen to a 12th place finish last year. Said does come at a slight risk as he's looking for a race win, but he usually the victim of hard racing if he does run into bad luck. He's the best C-List option in all categories.
Robby Gordon (9 Starts Remaining) - Not a pick for the weak at heart. Gordon has been terrible all year but the team admits they've been dumping the resources into the road course program and all put given up on the engine/aero program. Robby is a very high risk high reward driver, and it will take something pretty sporty for me to dump Said and put Robby on the team. Robby is more or less on the team for potential qualifying points as he is locked into the field.
The safe route is Bobby Labonte, you probably won't see or hear him mentioned on Sunday but he'll also probably score you a Top 25. Labonte could be a good pick if you want to go 42/9 for sure in your B-List, and hope your competition also has 42/9 AND picks a ringer in the C-List who busts out of the race (which often happens). Terry Labonte is also entered into the field in the #32 ride and is locked into the Top 35 in points, he's the same option as his brother. Regan Smith will likely be trying to just survive this weekend. I just simply can not see a reason to use David Ragan or Paul Menard here, both drivers are far more valuable at other tracks and you could use a Menard start at The Glen where he's performed better in the past (and the track usually is less risky on drivers wrecking).
No practice/qualifying break down here this week as I will be on business in Las Vegas all weekend. Check out www.FantasyNascarPreview.com for their breakdown and read their forum for the latest up-to-date opinions from the on track action.
Oddly enough, success here at Sonoma does not always translate to success at Watkins Glen. The Glen is much more high speed with sweeping corners while Sonoma is a lot tighter and slower which leads to more bumping and banging. They've brought the COT here the last 4 years, so let's first take a look at the past 4 years at Sonoma only:
AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION:
A-List:
J. Gordon - 6th
Stewart - 7th
Johnson - 9th
Biffle - 13th
B-List:
Montoya - 6th
Bowyer- 12th
Kahne - 15th
Newman - 15th
Vickers - 15th
Earnhardt Jr - 16th
Ambrose - 17th
Burton - 19th
C-List:
Mears - 18th
Said - 21st
R. Gordon - 23rd
Menard - 26th
T. Labonte - 26th
Ragan - 28th
B. Labonte - 29th
Smith - 34th
% of LAPS INSIDE the TOP 15:
A-List:
Stewart - 72%
Harvick - 69%
Johnson - 66%
J. Gordon - 63%
B-List:
Montoya - 79%
Ambrose - 74%
Newman - 63%
McMurray - 56%
Kahne - 53%
Burton - 49%
Bowyer - 48%
Earnhardt Jr. - 43%
C-List:
Said - 57%
R. Gordon - 55%
Mears - 35%
B. Labonte - 28%
Ragan - 16%
T. Labonte - 7%
Menard - 5%
Smith - 3%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Stewart - 105
Johnson - 104
J. Gordon - 96
Ky. Busch - 93
B-List:
Montoya - 108
Ambrose - 108
McMurray - 92
Kahne - 88
Newman - 85
Bowyer - 82
Burton - 81
Vickers - 78
C-List:
R. Gordon - 91
Said - 82
B. Labonte - 63
Mears - 60
Ragan - 51
T. Labonte - 50
Menard - 49
Smith - 36
Taking the data above, we will factor in some Watkins Glen statistics and current momentum into our 8 drivers we will roll off the trailer on Friday. This week we're back to the "regular" schedule of lockdown on Thursday night, with 1 practice on Friday followed by qualifying and 2 practice sessions on Saturday. Practices are hard to read on road courses since hardly anyone does a 10-lap average. Most drivers don't push hard in practice for fear of running off the track.
A-LIST:
Tony Stewart (8 Starts Remaining) - Tony basically leads all categories here at Sonoma, 4 for 4 on Top 10s here in the last 4 years, and when you look at Watkins Glen it is more of the same. Add into the fact that he might have a little extra fuel on his road racing fire after his F1 ride swap at Watkins Glen. Only thing I worry about is the transmission issues both SHR cars faced at Pocono.
Jeff Gordon (9 Starts Remaining) - Wonder Boy makes an excellent start save/backup to Stewart. Gordon has actually been a touch better than Stewart when it comes to finishes here over the last 4 years (also 4-4 on Top 10s). He also won and led the most laps at Pocono 2 weeks ago.
Jimmie Johnson has decent stats here at Sonoma but after the absolute embarrassing performance at Michigan and the unpredictability of Sonoma I'm not gambling another 48 start here. Kyle Busch could also get consideration but I'd also like to save him for safer bet tracks. The best option not named Gordon or Stewart this week is Kevin Harvick, Harvick had bad luck strike in 2009 and 2008, but his 2007 and 2010 performances of 2nd and 3rd show that he's a force here on the road courses, combined with being the 2nd highest A-List driver in % of Laps Inside the Top 15.
B-LIST:
Juan Pablo Montoya (6 Starts Remaining) - It's pretty much a no brainer who tops the B-List charts. Montoya is the best driver at this track the last 4 years.
Marcos Ambrose (9 Starts Remaining) - Ambrose rookie year had a hickup with a 42nd, but after that it's been 3rd and 6th.
The new chase rules makes the 42/9 auto-start mentality a little difficult to fully accept. Montoya is in the Top 20 in points, but more than a full race behind 10th place. Ambrose is 21st in points currently. Between here and Watkins Glen, this is extra pressure to go "all out" for the win, as the win could lock either of these drivers into the chase. This means these guys might push fuel strategy or pure aggression far over the breaking point and could devastate your team with poor finishes. Food for thought.
A.J. Allmendinger (8 Starts Remaining) - With everyone and their sister picking the 42/9 this week in their B-List, this is a good opportunity to pick differently and potentially gain on your competitors if the 42/9 faulter. If you've got a big enough lead in your group or you are way behind, you probably need to do something different than the 42/9 combination. Dinger could be your man, as he is averaging near a Top 10 finish at both Sonoma and The Glen over the past few races.
Kasey Kahne (6 Starts Remaining) - Much like Harvick in the A-List, when Kahne stays out of trouble, he's a race winner. 1st and a 4th the last 2 years here, and although there is turmoil in the Red Bull camp this week he could be a high risk/high reward if you want to take off the 42 or the 9.
Jamie McMurray has decent numbers here and at The Glen, but this team has absolutely nothing going for them and they are too much of a risk to bench the 42 or the 9. Clint Bowyer and Ryan Newman also have decent stats here but you can't risk them on such a crapshoot race.
C-LIST:
Boris Said (9 Starts Remaining) - I had a slight heart attack when I saw Landon Cassill appear on the initial entry list, that has since been corrected and Boris Said is confirmed by team officials as the driver of the 51 this week. This is the same team that took complete stock car rookie Jan Magnussen to a 12th place finish last year. Said does come at a slight risk as he's looking for a race win, but he usually the victim of hard racing if he does run into bad luck. He's the best C-List option in all categories.
Robby Gordon (9 Starts Remaining) - Not a pick for the weak at heart. Gordon has been terrible all year but the team admits they've been dumping the resources into the road course program and all put given up on the engine/aero program. Robby is a very high risk high reward driver, and it will take something pretty sporty for me to dump Said and put Robby on the team. Robby is more or less on the team for potential qualifying points as he is locked into the field.
The safe route is Bobby Labonte, you probably won't see or hear him mentioned on Sunday but he'll also probably score you a Top 25. Labonte could be a good pick if you want to go 42/9 for sure in your B-List, and hope your competition also has 42/9 AND picks a ringer in the C-List who busts out of the race (which often happens). Terry Labonte is also entered into the field in the #32 ride and is locked into the Top 35 in points, he's the same option as his brother. Regan Smith will likely be trying to just survive this weekend. I just simply can not see a reason to use David Ragan or Paul Menard here, both drivers are far more valuable at other tracks and you could use a Menard start at The Glen where he's performed better in the past (and the track usually is less risky on drivers wrecking).
No practice/qualifying break down here this week as I will be on business in Las Vegas all weekend. Check out www.FantasyNascarPreview.com for their breakdown and read their forum for the latest up-to-date opinions from the on track action.
Friday, June 17, 2011
MICHIGAN 1 - Lockdown
Practice is over and lockdown comes tonight, I'm doing an abbreviated lockdown review for this race due to a time crunch:
A-LIST:
Jimmie Johnson (8 Starts Remaining) - Johnson usually doesn't show his hand much in practice, and after looky shaky in the 1st practice, he made multiple long runs and looked very consistent over those long runs (which we typically see here at Michigan). Add in a strategy race and I like Knaus in my corner. It's a bit of a risk to use the 48 on a fuel mileage track but not many are in his league on the charts, so I'm rolling with the 48.
Kevin Harvick (7 Starts Remaining) - Harvick's time basically mirrored Johnson, and Harvick was also the lead A-List driver in Qualifying trim. Harvick could nail down some Q points, and if Johnson blows it in qualifying there is slight potential Harvick could get the start, he is indeed Happy Harvick with a really great car in practice.
Roush Fenway is surprisingly up and down, really great short run speed but the long run speed fell off, bad. I'm running low enough of Carl Edwards starts so he sits, Matt Kenseth was a disappointment on the longer runs. With Joey Logano blowing a motor, I'm not touching Kyle Busch or Denny Hamlin this week. Kurt Busch had a "miserable" car in happy hour so he also finds the bench.
B-LIST:
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (4 Starts Remaining) - Holy cow Junior Nation will be on their feet early and often on Sunday. No way you can sit him here, Junior is happy with the car, can run anywhere on the track, and has a ton of speed. Absolute lock no matter where he starts on Sunday.
Kasey Kahne (6 Starts Remaining) - Kahne really impressed in Happy Hour after a not so good P1, one of the fastest cars overall on the track in lap averages.
Brian Vickers (9 Starts Remaining) - Not quite as fast as Kahne but really consistent, if Vickers out-qualified his team mate he could get the start save this week. I will also rely on crew chief notes on Sunday to make my determination which Red Bull car gets to start next to the 88.
A.J. Allmendinger (8 Starts Remaining) - This is more for qualifying points as Dinger was 2nd fastest on the Q charts. Dinger wasn't that bad in race runs either, about a tenth or so off of Vickers. Outside chance that if both Red Bull cars are junk in qualifying and Dinger starts up front that the 43 could get a start.
I said that I would start Juan Pablo Montoya the whole session until right at the very end, he could well prove me wrong as he was slow but he was testing the high line earlier than anyone else was in P2. I've got 6 starts left, 2 of which will burn on the road courses and probably another 2 on the big flat tracks of Pocono and Indy. That leaves me 2 more starts with Montoya for the rest of the year, and a 10th place at Fontana and average numbers here doesn't constitute using 1 of those 2 starts I have.
Mark Martin was absolutely on fire in the 2nd practice session, by far the best car on track. And to show how little faith I have in him, he still finds my bench. He is usually good in practice (but not THIS good), still, they find a way to lose the handle, and on a hot greasy track like we should have on Sunday I am electing to bench Martin.
Clint Bowyer found something late in practice but the 88/83/4 are still better on track, so no need to risk a valuable Bowyer start. Ryan Newman is out to lunch, Joey Logano blew up, and Marcos Ambrose, Brad Keselowski, and David Reutimann didn't prove to me they could be much better than a Top 15.
C-LIST:
David Ragan (4 Starts Remaining) - Ragan shows why he is such a scary pick still after he ran over Jeff Burton in practice. Still the car is #1 overall in the Q charts, and he freely admits he thinks he has a race winner in race trim. Good enough for me to give him a shot going into qualifying.
Paul Menard (7 Starts Remaining) - Menard also impressed, but more in the short run. I think the 6 is just slightly better on the longer stretches, but I will be looking for an excuse to save 1 of my 4 Ragan starts, so the 27 could easily make the starting spot, they are very close on the charts.
Regan Smith isn't bad but about 1-2 tenths off of the 27/6, Trevor Bayne didn't make enough long runs for my liking today, but was really fast in the runs he made. I need him to prove himself coming back off of illness and his terrible Fontana performance, so Bayne gets to ride the pine this week.
A-LIST:
Jimmie Johnson (8 Starts Remaining) - Johnson usually doesn't show his hand much in practice, and after looky shaky in the 1st practice, he made multiple long runs and looked very consistent over those long runs (which we typically see here at Michigan). Add in a strategy race and I like Knaus in my corner. It's a bit of a risk to use the 48 on a fuel mileage track but not many are in his league on the charts, so I'm rolling with the 48.
Kevin Harvick (7 Starts Remaining) - Harvick's time basically mirrored Johnson, and Harvick was also the lead A-List driver in Qualifying trim. Harvick could nail down some Q points, and if Johnson blows it in qualifying there is slight potential Harvick could get the start, he is indeed Happy Harvick with a really great car in practice.
Roush Fenway is surprisingly up and down, really great short run speed but the long run speed fell off, bad. I'm running low enough of Carl Edwards starts so he sits, Matt Kenseth was a disappointment on the longer runs. With Joey Logano blowing a motor, I'm not touching Kyle Busch or Denny Hamlin this week. Kurt Busch had a "miserable" car in happy hour so he also finds the bench.
B-LIST:
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (4 Starts Remaining) - Holy cow Junior Nation will be on their feet early and often on Sunday. No way you can sit him here, Junior is happy with the car, can run anywhere on the track, and has a ton of speed. Absolute lock no matter where he starts on Sunday.
Kasey Kahne (6 Starts Remaining) - Kahne really impressed in Happy Hour after a not so good P1, one of the fastest cars overall on the track in lap averages.
Brian Vickers (9 Starts Remaining) - Not quite as fast as Kahne but really consistent, if Vickers out-qualified his team mate he could get the start save this week. I will also rely on crew chief notes on Sunday to make my determination which Red Bull car gets to start next to the 88.
A.J. Allmendinger (8 Starts Remaining) - This is more for qualifying points as Dinger was 2nd fastest on the Q charts. Dinger wasn't that bad in race runs either, about a tenth or so off of Vickers. Outside chance that if both Red Bull cars are junk in qualifying and Dinger starts up front that the 43 could get a start.
I said that I would start Juan Pablo Montoya the whole session until right at the very end, he could well prove me wrong as he was slow but he was testing the high line earlier than anyone else was in P2. I've got 6 starts left, 2 of which will burn on the road courses and probably another 2 on the big flat tracks of Pocono and Indy. That leaves me 2 more starts with Montoya for the rest of the year, and a 10th place at Fontana and average numbers here doesn't constitute using 1 of those 2 starts I have.
Mark Martin was absolutely on fire in the 2nd practice session, by far the best car on track. And to show how little faith I have in him, he still finds my bench. He is usually good in practice (but not THIS good), still, they find a way to lose the handle, and on a hot greasy track like we should have on Sunday I am electing to bench Martin.
Clint Bowyer found something late in practice but the 88/83/4 are still better on track, so no need to risk a valuable Bowyer start. Ryan Newman is out to lunch, Joey Logano blew up, and Marcos Ambrose, Brad Keselowski, and David Reutimann didn't prove to me they could be much better than a Top 15.
C-LIST:
David Ragan (4 Starts Remaining) - Ragan shows why he is such a scary pick still after he ran over Jeff Burton in practice. Still the car is #1 overall in the Q charts, and he freely admits he thinks he has a race winner in race trim. Good enough for me to give him a shot going into qualifying.
Paul Menard (7 Starts Remaining) - Menard also impressed, but more in the short run. I think the 6 is just slightly better on the longer stretches, but I will be looking for an excuse to save 1 of my 4 Ragan starts, so the 27 could easily make the starting spot, they are very close on the charts.
Regan Smith isn't bad but about 1-2 tenths off of the 27/6, Trevor Bayne didn't make enough long runs for my liking today, but was really fast in the runs he made. I need him to prove himself coming back off of illness and his terrible Fontana performance, so Bayne gets to ride the pine this week.
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
MICHIGAN 1 - Data & Preview
The fuel mileage races continue as we head to the motor city this week. Don't be afraid to roll out sleepers as this race should play out much like Kansas did. Don't forget we also get to see the 2 practice sessions on Friday before we lockdown for Saturday qualifying. We will take a look at the loop data from the previous 3 years (6 races) at Michigan first:
AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION:
A-List:
Edwards - 5th
Stewart - 9th
Biffle - 10th
Kenseth - 10th
B-List:
Vickers - 5th
Earnhardt Jr. - 11th
Logano - 13th
Kahne - 15th
Bowyer - 17th
Burton - 17th
Martin - 18th
McMurray - 18th
C-List:
Ragan - 17th
Menard - 26th
Smith - 26th
Labonte - 34th
% of LAPS INSIDE the TOP 15:
A-List:
Edwards - 90%
Johnson - 87%
Biffle - 85%
Kenseth - 80%
B-List:
Vickers - 89%
Kahne - 62%
Earnhardt Jr. - 58%
Martin - 58%
Montoya - 52%
Burton - 50%
Bowyer - 47%
Reutimann - 47%
C-List:
Ragan - 52%
Menard - 9%
Smith - 4%
Labonte - 0.5%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Johnson - 115
Edwards - 108
Biffle - 104
Stewart - 100
B-List:
Vickers - 115
Earnhardt Jr - 93
Kahne - 91
Martin - 85
Logano - 82
Montoya - 80
Burton - 79
Bowyer - 78
C-List:
Ragan - 81
Smith - 54
Menard - 53
Labonte - 41
Also keep in mind results from Auto Club Speedway earlier this year. Although teams performances and momentum have changed since early the year, it's definitely worth looking at the numbers:
LAPS LED: Ky. Busch (151), Hamlin (15), Stewart (11), Newman (8), Montoya (7), Johnson (3), Harvick (1)
AVERAGE RUNNING POSITION: Ky. Busch (2nd), Stewart (5th), Vickers (6th), Bowyer (7th), Newman (8th), Johnson (8th), Kenseth (8th), Montoya (9th), Harvick (10th), Edwards (11th), Burton (11th), Truex Jr (12th), Menard (15th), Earnhardt Jr. (18th), Ragan (18th), Smith (25th), Bayne (30th)
A-LIST:
Carl Edwards ranks up there in the A-List once again this week in the house that Roush has owned for many years. 3 Top 5s in the last 4 races and a 6th place run at California this year. I am not worried about the engine problems he had last week, parts failures are very rare and there is no way you can bench Edwards over a part defect this week.
Jimmie Johnson is the best driver never to win here. He is tied for the highest driver rating at this track but has fallen victim to a few late race miscues that hurt his average finish. Johnson led late at California before a last lap pass by Kevin Harvick snatched the win away. Johnson is also coming in with great momentum and with plenty of 48 starts in the bank I will not hesitate to roll one out here at Michigan if he looks good after Friday practice.
Just behind the 48 is Roushkateer Matt Kenseth who is always a solid start on these kinds of tracks. Kenseth ran inside the Top 10 most of the day at California, owns a 10th place average finish here and runs inside the Top-15 for more than 80% of the laps. Kenseth could easily bump either of the two above if they have faulty practice numbers.
Kyle Busch dominated the race at California earlier this year, leading the most laps by a wide margin, although his numbers here at Michigan aren't as sporty, he will get consideration this weekend coming off a solid run at Pocono (and being able to keep his crew chief without suspension after failing post-race inspection).
Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin have poor momentum coming into this weekends events but a dynamite practice session could move them up the charts into a potential starting spot. Hamlin led 15 laps at California and Stewart ran inside the Top 5 most of the day before a late caution and pit strategy shuffled him back.
B-LIST:
Brian Vickers picked up the first win ever for Red Bull Racing here a few years ago and is tied for the best overall driver rating here along with Jimmie Johnson. This is a track where a start-save in the B-List could really help you in the long run, and Vickers could fit that bill perfectly. He ran very well at California earlier this year, but his up and down performance this year makes him a bit of a risk. Still, he would have to have a terrible practice for him to not at least make my Top 4 team heading into qualifying.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. is on fire and there is no reason to start-save him at this point in the year. "Points are points" as some of the experts say, so if you burn through your 9 starts with the 88 and he keeps racking up Top 5s-10s for you, that is just fine. This is statistically one of Junebug's best tracks and we've seen from his Kansas performance that he can save fuel, which makes Junior a near lock to start on Sunday.
Juan Pablo Montoya got his season turned around in Pocono with a strong run. The momentum should carry over into Michigan with the excitement of a road course race looming on the horizon as well. Montoya had a solid day at California and runs inside the Top 15 more than 50% of the time here at Michigan.
The final spot on my penciled in B-List before practice is a toss up between Kasey Kahne and Joey Logano. Both drivers were a little disappointing at Pocono but own decent stats here at Michigan. Kahne gets the ever so slight nod right now due to his 9th place finish at California earlier this year.
Clint Bowyer will get the bench this week unless he is outstanding in practice. This is not one of Bowyer's best tracks, and considering we could have a fuel mileage race and the results we had out of Bowyer in Kansas because of it makes it a risk to start the 33 this week. Mark Martin and Jeff Burton will continue to find my bench as week after week their numbers coming into the race are good, practice numbers are good, but neither can put together a good finish when it comes to the race.
C-LIST:
We continue to burn through David Ragan starts but this track is another where you simply can't park him, and he is a lock to at least make my C-List going into qualifying. Ragan by far has the best numbers compared to anyone else on the C-List here at Michigan and he's in strong Roush Ford equipment. This isn't the same team that could barely run inside the Top 20 at California, and I expect a much better performance here at Michigan.
The C-List is somewhat open on who to pair with Ragan. I am fortunate enough to have 7 starts remaining with Paul Menard and Menard isn't a bad option, coming in with good momentum from Pocono (a track he's terrible at) and having a sold Top-15 day at California earlier this year. Regan Smith also comes in with momentum and his numbers here at Michigan are about on pace with Menard, and that is with Smith in arguably lesser equipment over the past 3 seasons. Bobby Labonte looked like a start-and-park all weekend at Pocono, and he is just not an option on these bigger tracks as the team appears to lack horsepower and aerodynamics. Trevor Bayne returns this week in the 21 and could be an save option, but be forewarned as I went with Bayne earlier this year at California where he smacked the wall twice on his own and struggled to crack the Top 30 all day.
Check back here Friday evening with the post practice analysis and lockdown team heading into Michigan on Sunday.
AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION:
A-List:
Edwards - 5th
Stewart - 9th
Biffle - 10th
Kenseth - 10th
B-List:
Vickers - 5th
Earnhardt Jr. - 11th
Logano - 13th
Kahne - 15th
Bowyer - 17th
Burton - 17th
Martin - 18th
McMurray - 18th
C-List:
Ragan - 17th
Menard - 26th
Smith - 26th
Labonte - 34th
% of LAPS INSIDE the TOP 15:
A-List:
Edwards - 90%
Johnson - 87%
Biffle - 85%
Kenseth - 80%
B-List:
Vickers - 89%
Kahne - 62%
Earnhardt Jr. - 58%
Martin - 58%
Montoya - 52%
Burton - 50%
Bowyer - 47%
Reutimann - 47%
C-List:
Ragan - 52%
Menard - 9%
Smith - 4%
Labonte - 0.5%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Johnson - 115
Edwards - 108
Biffle - 104
Stewart - 100
B-List:
Vickers - 115
Earnhardt Jr - 93
Kahne - 91
Martin - 85
Logano - 82
Montoya - 80
Burton - 79
Bowyer - 78
C-List:
Ragan - 81
Smith - 54
Menard - 53
Labonte - 41
Also keep in mind results from Auto Club Speedway earlier this year. Although teams performances and momentum have changed since early the year, it's definitely worth looking at the numbers:
LAPS LED: Ky. Busch (151), Hamlin (15), Stewart (11), Newman (8), Montoya (7), Johnson (3), Harvick (1)
AVERAGE RUNNING POSITION: Ky. Busch (2nd), Stewart (5th), Vickers (6th), Bowyer (7th), Newman (8th), Johnson (8th), Kenseth (8th), Montoya (9th), Harvick (10th), Edwards (11th), Burton (11th), Truex Jr (12th), Menard (15th), Earnhardt Jr. (18th), Ragan (18th), Smith (25th), Bayne (30th)
A-LIST:
Carl Edwards ranks up there in the A-List once again this week in the house that Roush has owned for many years. 3 Top 5s in the last 4 races and a 6th place run at California this year. I am not worried about the engine problems he had last week, parts failures are very rare and there is no way you can bench Edwards over a part defect this week.
Jimmie Johnson is the best driver never to win here. He is tied for the highest driver rating at this track but has fallen victim to a few late race miscues that hurt his average finish. Johnson led late at California before a last lap pass by Kevin Harvick snatched the win away. Johnson is also coming in with great momentum and with plenty of 48 starts in the bank I will not hesitate to roll one out here at Michigan if he looks good after Friday practice.
Just behind the 48 is Roushkateer Matt Kenseth who is always a solid start on these kinds of tracks. Kenseth ran inside the Top 10 most of the day at California, owns a 10th place average finish here and runs inside the Top-15 for more than 80% of the laps. Kenseth could easily bump either of the two above if they have faulty practice numbers.
Kyle Busch dominated the race at California earlier this year, leading the most laps by a wide margin, although his numbers here at Michigan aren't as sporty, he will get consideration this weekend coming off a solid run at Pocono (and being able to keep his crew chief without suspension after failing post-race inspection).
Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin have poor momentum coming into this weekends events but a dynamite practice session could move them up the charts into a potential starting spot. Hamlin led 15 laps at California and Stewart ran inside the Top 5 most of the day before a late caution and pit strategy shuffled him back.
B-LIST:
Brian Vickers picked up the first win ever for Red Bull Racing here a few years ago and is tied for the best overall driver rating here along with Jimmie Johnson. This is a track where a start-save in the B-List could really help you in the long run, and Vickers could fit that bill perfectly. He ran very well at California earlier this year, but his up and down performance this year makes him a bit of a risk. Still, he would have to have a terrible practice for him to not at least make my Top 4 team heading into qualifying.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. is on fire and there is no reason to start-save him at this point in the year. "Points are points" as some of the experts say, so if you burn through your 9 starts with the 88 and he keeps racking up Top 5s-10s for you, that is just fine. This is statistically one of Junebug's best tracks and we've seen from his Kansas performance that he can save fuel, which makes Junior a near lock to start on Sunday.
Juan Pablo Montoya got his season turned around in Pocono with a strong run. The momentum should carry over into Michigan with the excitement of a road course race looming on the horizon as well. Montoya had a solid day at California and runs inside the Top 15 more than 50% of the time here at Michigan.
The final spot on my penciled in B-List before practice is a toss up between Kasey Kahne and Joey Logano. Both drivers were a little disappointing at Pocono but own decent stats here at Michigan. Kahne gets the ever so slight nod right now due to his 9th place finish at California earlier this year.
Clint Bowyer will get the bench this week unless he is outstanding in practice. This is not one of Bowyer's best tracks, and considering we could have a fuel mileage race and the results we had out of Bowyer in Kansas because of it makes it a risk to start the 33 this week. Mark Martin and Jeff Burton will continue to find my bench as week after week their numbers coming into the race are good, practice numbers are good, but neither can put together a good finish when it comes to the race.
C-LIST:
We continue to burn through David Ragan starts but this track is another where you simply can't park him, and he is a lock to at least make my C-List going into qualifying. Ragan by far has the best numbers compared to anyone else on the C-List here at Michigan and he's in strong Roush Ford equipment. This isn't the same team that could barely run inside the Top 20 at California, and I expect a much better performance here at Michigan.
The C-List is somewhat open on who to pair with Ragan. I am fortunate enough to have 7 starts remaining with Paul Menard and Menard isn't a bad option, coming in with good momentum from Pocono (a track he's terrible at) and having a sold Top-15 day at California earlier this year. Regan Smith also comes in with momentum and his numbers here at Michigan are about on pace with Menard, and that is with Smith in arguably lesser equipment over the past 3 seasons. Bobby Labonte looked like a start-and-park all weekend at Pocono, and he is just not an option on these bigger tracks as the team appears to lack horsepower and aerodynamics. Trevor Bayne returns this week in the 21 and could be an save option, but be forewarned as I went with Bayne earlier this year at California where he smacked the wall twice on his own and struggled to crack the Top 30 all day.
Check back here Friday evening with the post practice analysis and lockdown team heading into Michigan on Sunday.
Friday, June 10, 2011
POCONO 1 - Lockdown
P1 and P2 are in the books, let's look at each sessesion:
P1 Overall Lap Averages, a bit hard to read since there is a mix of race and qualifying trim:
A-List:
Biffle - 54.57 (13 Laps)
Gordon - 54.81 (12)
Hamlin - 54.98 (13)
Harvick - 55.08 (15)
Stewart - 55.11 (19)
Kenseth - 55.14 (16)
Edwards - 55.28 (14)
Johnson - 55.29 (24)
Ky. Busch - 55.71 (15)
B-List:
Earnhardt Jr - 54.94 (18 Laps)
Allmendinger - 55.07 (16)
Newman - 55.16 (17)
Vickers - 55.22 (16)
Logano - 55.24 (16)
Ambrose - 55.26 (16)
Montoya - 55.29 (19)
Kahne - 55.46 (23)
Martin - 55.47 (16)
C-List:
Ragan - 55.26 (20 Laps)
Smith - 55.47 (17)
Gilliland - 55.77 (12)
Mears - 56.00 (17)
Blaney - 56.08 (13)
Hornish - 56.30 (13)
Menard - 56.38 (18)
Labonte - 56.68 (9)
P2 was all race runs and is much more of an indication on performance for the race, here are the numbers from P2:
The 10-Lap Averages:
And the overall lap averages:
A-List:
Hamlin - 55.31 (34 Laps)
Stewart - 55.37 (24)
Edwards - 55.44 (17)
Johnson - 55.49 (42)
B-List:
Earnhardt Jr - 55.31 (33 Laps)
Montoya - 55.37 (24)
Bowyer - 55.46 (25)
Newman - 55.52 (37)
Logano - 55.56 (30)
Kahne - 55.64 (36)
Vickers - 55.66 (32)
Allmendinger - 55.74 (20)
C-List:
Ragan - 55.52 (26 Laps)
Smith - 55.53 (34)
Mears - 55.54 (11)
Hornish - 55.61 (11)
Menard - 55.63 (25)
With all that in mind and our previous data in the bank, our lineup is set as the following:
A-LIST:
Tony Stewart (8 Starts Remaining) - Likely our starter for the race on Sunday, he laid down a good qualifying lap and he's got one of the best lap averages of any driver on track this weekend. This is a hot slick track that is going to take skill in shifting and sliding the car around, and I like Stewart to be the man on Sunday.
Denny Hamlin (8 Starts Remaining) - Much like Stewart, fast on the long runs and also could put up a number in qualifying. I'm not as big on the Toyota's and their fuel mileage as I am on the Chevy's. He's great on this track and has decent momentum coming in with a couple of Top 10 runs.
Just missing is Jimmie Johnson who was up and down on the practice chart, definitely a potential race winner but I'm seeing more consistent numbers out of the 14 and 11. Carl Edwards is fast on a short run but not as impressive on the longer runs so I can't justify burning another 99 start. My A-List sleeper is Kevin Harvick, not great on the charts but seems very happy with his ride.
B-LIST:
Dale Earnhardt Jr (5 Starts Remaining) - Junebug is absolutely flying around the track. He is one of the best cars in the entire field on a long run and is an absolute must start on your team this week. He's very happy with his car and other teams in the garage are commenting on how fast the 88 is. To give you an idea how good Hamlin is, Junior's only complaint is that he can't keep up with the 11.
Juan Pablo Montoya (7 Starts Remaining) - Juan has a lot of confidence in his car and his long runs seem to be really strong as well. Much like Stewart, I like a guy who can slide around and shift and that fits Montoya to the T. He's got good short run speed as well and could grab qualifying points.
Ryan Newman (6 Starts Remaining) - Newman makes the team for potential of qualifying points and if one of the above really chunks it in qualifying and the crew chief notes bring up some sort of shocking information. Newman is just a little behind the 42 and 88 to me but ranks really high on potential of grabbing Q points.
Brian Vickers (9 Starts Remaining) - Got to throw deep and put 1 sleeper in there right? Vickers likes this track and his lap averages are pretty decent as well. I doubt he'll get the start but I've got enough confidence in my Top 3 to slide a sleeper into the 4th spot as a potential surprise.
Just missing is Joey Logano, seems pleased with his car but was still making big changes on it late in P2, plus his bad mojo is keeping me away still. Kasey Kahne and A.J. Allmendinger also just miss the lineup, decent numbers but not enough to get into my Top 4.
C-LIST:
Regan Smith (6 Starts Remaining) - Lock. There is no other option in the C List not named David Ragan. Smith is right on par with Ragan's numbers, and the two of them are far and away better than the rest of the C-List. Start Smith with confidence this week.
Paul Menard (7 Starts Remaining) - For qualifying points only, under no circumstance should you start Paul Menard. His long runs fall off, dramatically. He's got great short run numbers but the car gets exponentially worse as the laps click off, and this race will have many long green flag runs.
Bobby Labonte looks terrible and can not make your team this week. I still wouldn't touch Sam Hornish Jr, if you need to get another name besides Smith, Ragan, Menard, I'd go Casey Mears who had a decent stint in P2.
| Rank | Car# | Driver | Team Sponsor Manu | Best Speed | Best Time | Ave Speed | Fast Lap | Laps Run |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 99 | Carl Edwards | Kellogg / Cheez-It Ford | 167.729 | 53.658 | 162.805 | 1 | 14 |
| 2 | 27 | Paul Menard | Pittsburgh Paints / Menards Chevy | 167.648 | 53.684 | 159.622 | 1 | 18 |
| 3 | 48 | Jimmie Johnson | Lowe's Chevy | 167.454 | 53.746 | 162.785 | 1 | 24 |
| 4 | 14 | Tony Stewart | Mobil 1 / Office Depot Chevy | 167.264 | 53.807 | 163.308 | 19 | 19 |
| 5 | 22 | Kurt Busch | Shell / Pennzoil Dodge | 166.728 | 53.980 | 163.546 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | 39 | Ryan Newman | Haas Automation Chevy | 166.725 | 53.981 | 163.171 | 15 | 17 |
| 7 | 2 | Brad Keselowski | Miller Lite Dodge | 166.636 | 54.010 | 160.726 | 1 | 28 |
| 8 | 42 | Juan Pablo Montoya | Target Chevy | 166.392 | 54.089 | 162.772 | 1 | 19 |
| 9 | 24 | Jeff Gordon | DuPont Chevy | 166.334 | 54.108 | 164.194 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | 11 | Denny Hamlin | FedEx Ground Toyota | 166.291 | 54.122 | 163.680 | 1 | 13 |
| 11 | 16 | Greg Biffle | 3M Ford | 166.193 | 54.154 | 164.917 | 1 | 13 |
| 12 | 31 | Jeff Burton | Caterpillar Chevy | 166.104 | 54.183 | 162.901 | 19 | 19 |
| 13 | 88 | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | National Guard / AMP Energy Chevy | 166.021 | 54.210 | 163.816 | 16 | 18 |
| 14 | 18 | Kyle Busch | M&M's Toyota | 166.015 | 54.212 | 161.552 | 15 | 15 |
| 15 | 5 | Mark Martin | Farmers Insurance / GoDaddy.com Chevy | 165.981 | 54.223 | 162.241 | 16 | 16 |
| 16 | 6 | David Ragan | UPS Ford | 165.981 | 54.223 | 162.872 | 20 | 20 |
| 17 | 20 | Joey Logano | The Home Depot Toyota | 165.822 | 54.275 | 162.928 | 16 | 16 |
| 18 | 4 | Kasey Kahne | Red Bull Toyota | 165.804 | 54.281 | 162.284 | 23 | 23 |
| 19 | 17 | Matt Kenseth | Affliction Clothing Live Fast Ford | 165.697 | 54.316 | 163.209 | 16 | 16 |
| 20 | 43 | A.J. Allmendinger | Medallion Financial Ford | 165.587 | 54.352 | 163.436 | 16 | 16 |
| 21 | 29 | Kevin Harvick | Okuma Chevy | 165.329 | 54.437 | 163.414 | 15 | 15 |
| 22 | 83 | Brian Vickers | Red Bull Toyota | 165.238 | 54.467 | 162.972 | 16 | 16 |
| 23 | 9 | Marcos Ambrose | Stanley Ford | 165.059 | 54.526 | 162.866 | 16 | 16 |
| 24 | 1 | Jamie McMurray | McDonald's Chevy | 164.944 | 54.564 | 163.273 | 11 | 13 |
| 25 | 00 | David Reutimann | Aaron's Dream Machine Toyota | 164.546 | 54.696 | 162.468 | 15 | 15 |
| 26 | 56 | Martin Truex Jr. | NAPA Auto Parts Toyota | 164.459 | 54.725 | 161.614 | 1 | 21 |
| 27 | 66 | Michael McDowell | HP Racing LLC Toyota | 164.420 | 54.738 | 163.736 | 1 | 3 |
| 28 | 78 | Regan Smith | Furniture Row Racing Chevy | 164.312 | 54.774 | 162.244 | 12 | 17 |
| 29 | 34 | David Gilliland | Taco Bell Ford | 164.300 | 54.778 | 161.375 | 12 | 12 |
| 30 | 33 | Clint Bowyer | Cheerios / Hamburger Helper Chevy | 163.806 | 54.943 | 162.125 | 9 | 9 |
| 31 | 38 | Sam Hornish Jr. | Long John Silver's Ford | 163.621 | 55.005 | 159.857 | 13 | 13 |
| 32 | 46 | J.J. Yeley | Red Line Oil Chevy | 163.446 | 55.064 | 163.446 | 1 | 1 |
| 33 | 36 | Dave Blaney | Golden Corral Chevy | 163.242 | 55.133 | 160.473 | 13 | 13 |
| 34 | 87 | Joe Nemechek | AM FM Energy.com / Pellet & Wood | 162.893 | 55.251 | 162.893 | 1 | 1 |
| 35 | 47 | Bobby Labonte | Clorox / Kleenex Toyota | 162.602 | 55.350 | 158.782 | 9 | 9 |
| 36 | 13 | Casey Mears | GEICO Toyota | 162.232 | 55.476 | 160.709 | 1 | 17 |
| 37 | 51 | Landon Cassill | Security Benefit / Thank A Teacher Chevy | 162.200 | 55.487 | 160.423 | 14 | 15 |
| 38 | 81 | Scott Riggs | Whitney's Collision Chevy | 161.679 | 55.666 | 160.954 | 5 | 5 |
| 39 | 60 | Mike Skinner | Big Red Toyota | 161.337 | 55.784 | 160.207 | 4 | 8 |
| 40 | 71 | Andy Lally | TRG Motorsports Ford | 161.218 | 55.825 | 157.279 | 21 | 21 |
| 41 | 37 | Tony Raines | BlackCatFireworks.com Ford | 160.780 | 55.977 | 159.265 | 1 | 5 |
| 42 | 32 | Mike Bliss | U.S. Chrome / Southern Pride Trucking Ford | 160.568 | 56.051 | 158.332 | 2 | 22 |
| 43 | 50 | TJ Bell | Green Smoke Toyota | 160.448 | 56.093 | 158.967 | 12 | 12 |
| 44 | 7 | Scott Wimmer | Speed Energy / Harris Teeter Dodge | 159.552 | 56.408 | 159.267 | 1 | 3 |
P1 Overall Lap Averages, a bit hard to read since there is a mix of race and qualifying trim:
A-List:
Biffle - 54.57 (13 Laps)
Gordon - 54.81 (12)
Hamlin - 54.98 (13)
Harvick - 55.08 (15)
Stewart - 55.11 (19)
Kenseth - 55.14 (16)
Edwards - 55.28 (14)
Johnson - 55.29 (24)
Ky. Busch - 55.71 (15)
B-List:
Earnhardt Jr - 54.94 (18 Laps)
Allmendinger - 55.07 (16)
Newman - 55.16 (17)
Vickers - 55.22 (16)
Logano - 55.24 (16)
Ambrose - 55.26 (16)
Montoya - 55.29 (19)
Kahne - 55.46 (23)
Martin - 55.47 (16)
C-List:
Ragan - 55.26 (20 Laps)
Smith - 55.47 (17)
Gilliland - 55.77 (12)
Mears - 56.00 (17)
Blaney - 56.08 (13)
Hornish - 56.30 (13)
Menard - 56.38 (18)
Labonte - 56.68 (9)
P2 was all race runs and is much more of an indication on performance for the race, here are the numbers from P2:
| Rank | Car# | Driver | Team Sponsor Manu | Best Speed | Best Time | Ave Speed | Fast Lap | Laps Run |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | Denny Hamlin | FedEx Ground Toyota | 166.125 | 54.176 | 162.716 | 1 | 34 |
| 2 | 83 | Brian Vickers | Red Bull Toyota | 166.067 | 54.195 | 161.688 | 1 | 33 |
| 3 | 99 | Carl Edwards | Kellogg / Cheez-It Ford | 166.030 | 54.207 | 162.344 | 17 | 17 |
| 4 | 2 | Brad Keselowski | Miller Lite Dodge | 165.926 | 54.241 | 161.850 | 1 | 36 |
| 5 | 48 | Jimmie Johnson | Lowe's Chevy | 165.700 | 54.315 | 162.195 | 1 | 42 |
| 6 | 5 | Mark Martin | Farmers Insurance / GoDaddy.com Chevy | 165.615 | 54.343 | 158.349 | 1 | 39 |
| 7 | 00 | David Reutimann | Aaron's Dream Machine Toyota | 165.554 | 54.363 | 162.466 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | 39 | Ryan Newman | Haas Automation Chevy | 165.529 | 54.371 | 162.098 | 1 | 37 |
| 9 | 22 | Kurt Busch | Shell / Pennzoil Dodge | 165.456 | 54.395 | 162.064 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | 31 | Jeff Burton | Caterpillar Chevy | 165.399 | 54.414 | 161.820 | 1 | 35 |
| 11 | 42 | Juan Pablo Montoya | Target Chevy | 165.329 | 54.437 | 162.536 | 1 | 24 |
| 12 | 14 | Tony Stewart | Mobil 1 / Office Depot Chevy | 165.304 | 54.445 | 162.585 | 1 | 27 |
| 13 | 88 | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | National Guard / AMP Energy Chevy | 165.122 | 54.505 | 162.726 | 1 | 33 |
| 14 | 27 | Paul Menard | Pittsburgh Paints / Menards Chevy | 165.113 | 54.508 | 161.779 | 1 | 25 |
| 15 | 1 | Jamie McMurray | McDonald's Chevy | 165.086 | 54.517 | 161.373 | 1 | 40 |
| 16 | 4 | Kasey Kahne | Red Bull Toyota | 165.044 | 54.531 | 161.768 | 1 | 38 |
| 17 | 16 | Greg Biffle | 3M Ford | 164.853 | 54.594 | 162.115 | 1 | 24 |
| 18 | 18 | Kyle Busch | M&M's Toyota | 164.702 | 54.644 | 161.691 | 1 | 33 |
| 19 | 43 | A.J. Allmendinger | Medallion Financial Ford | 164.681 | 54.651 | 161.499 | 1 | 24 |
| 20 | 24 | Jeff Gordon | DuPont Chevy | 164.663 | 54.657 | 162.014 | 1 | 24 |
| 21 | 78 | Regan Smith | Furniture Row Racing Chevy | 164.618 | 54.672 | 162.086 | 1 | 34 |
| 22 | 6 | David Ragan | UPS Ford | 164.597 | 54.679 | 162.114 | 1 | 26 |
| 23 | 33 | Clint Bowyer | Cheerios / Hamburger Helper Chevy | 164.525 | 54.703 | 162.374 | 1 | 28 |
| 24 | 20 | Joey Logano | The Home Depot Toyota | 164.360 | 54.758 | 161.974 | 2 | 30 |
| 25 | 29 | Kevin Harvick | Okuma Chevy | 164.201 | 54.811 | 161.991 | 1 | 27 |
| 26 | 38 | Sam Hornish Jr. | Long John Silver's Ford | 164.093 | 54.847 | 161.837 | 9 | 11 |
| 27 | 56 | Martin Truex Jr. | NAPA Auto Parts Toyota | 164.060 | 54.858 | 162.176 | 1 | 23 |
| 28 | 87 | Joe Nemechek | AM FM Energy.com / Pellet & Wood | 163.976 | 54.886 | 162.806 | 4 | 4 |
| 29 | 13 | Casey Mears | GEICO Toyota | 163.943 | 54.897 | 162.040 | 1 | 11 |
| 30 | 46 | J.J. Yeley | Red Line Oil Chevy | 163.720 | 54.972 | 162.441 | 6 | 6 |
| 31 | 66 | Michael McDowell | HP Racing LLC Toyota | 163.624 | 55.004 | 163.624 | 1 | 1 |
| 32 | 37 | Tony Raines | BlackCatFireworks.com Ford | 163.494 | 55.048 | 162.158 | 1 | 5 |
| 33 | 17 | Matt Kenseth | Affliction Clothing Live Fast Ford | 163.360 | 55.093 | 161.827 | 19 | 33 |
| 34 | 51 | Landon Cassill | Security Benefit / Thank A Teacher Chevy | 163.301 | 55.113 | 158.966 | 21 | 21 |
| 35 | 9 | Marcos Ambrose | Stanley Ford | 163.248 | 55.131 | 161.768 | 1 | 26 |
| 36 | 32 | Mike Bliss | U.S. Chrome / Southern Pride Trucking Ford | 162.964 | 55.227 | 159.165 | 1 | 23 |
| 37 | 34 | David Gilliland | Taco Bell Ford | 162.781 | 55.289 | 160.973 | 1 | 15 |
| 38 | 60 | Mike Skinner | Big Red Toyota | 162.370 | 55.429 | 161.356 | 6 | 6 |
| 39 | 71 | Andy Lally | TRG Motorsports Ford | 162.344 | 55.438 | 161.664 | 11 | 11 |
| 40 | 47 | Bobby Labonte | Clorox / Kleenex Toyota | 161.937 | 55.577 | 153.236 | 18 | 19 |
| 41 | 36 | Dave Blaney | Golden Corral Chevy | 161.859 | 55.604 | 160.163 | 2 | 16 |
| 42 | 81 | Scott Riggs | Whitney's Collision Chevy | 161.757 | 55.639 | 161.155 | 4 | 6 |
| 43 | 50 | TJ Bell | Green Smoke Toyota | 161.458 | 55.742 | 160.029 | 14 | 14 |
| 44 | 7 | Scott Wimmer | Speed Energy / Harris Teeter Dodge | 159.815 | 56.315 | 158.075 | 2 | 11 |
The 10-Lap Averages:
| Rank | Car# | Driver | From Lap | To Lap | Avg Speed | Overall Rank |
| 1 | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 19 | 28 | 162.809 | 1 |
| 2 | 48 | Jimmie Johnson | 16 | 25 | 162.634 | 5 |
| 3 | 88 | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 22 | 31 | 162.351 | 13 |
| 4 | 27 | Paul Menard | 1 | 10 | 162.068 | 14 |
| 5 | 2 | Brad Keselowski | 20 | 29 | 161.795 | 4 |
| 6 | 1 | Jamie McMurray | 31 | 40 | 161.639 | 15 |
| 7 | 4 | Kasey Kahne | 18 | 27 | 161.342 | 16 |
| 8 | 83 | Brian Vickers | 17 | 26 | 160.978 | 2 |
| 9 | 5 | Mark Martin | 17 | 26 | 160.569 | 6 |
And the overall lap averages:
A-List:
Hamlin - 55.31 (34 Laps)
Stewart - 55.37 (24)
Edwards - 55.44 (17)
Johnson - 55.49 (42)
B-List:
Earnhardt Jr - 55.31 (33 Laps)
Montoya - 55.37 (24)
Bowyer - 55.46 (25)
Newman - 55.52 (37)
Logano - 55.56 (30)
Kahne - 55.64 (36)
Vickers - 55.66 (32)
Allmendinger - 55.74 (20)
C-List:
Ragan - 55.52 (26 Laps)
Smith - 55.53 (34)
Mears - 55.54 (11)
Hornish - 55.61 (11)
Menard - 55.63 (25)
With all that in mind and our previous data in the bank, our lineup is set as the following:
A-LIST:
Tony Stewart (8 Starts Remaining) - Likely our starter for the race on Sunday, he laid down a good qualifying lap and he's got one of the best lap averages of any driver on track this weekend. This is a hot slick track that is going to take skill in shifting and sliding the car around, and I like Stewart to be the man on Sunday.
Denny Hamlin (8 Starts Remaining) - Much like Stewart, fast on the long runs and also could put up a number in qualifying. I'm not as big on the Toyota's and their fuel mileage as I am on the Chevy's. He's great on this track and has decent momentum coming in with a couple of Top 10 runs.
Just missing is Jimmie Johnson who was up and down on the practice chart, definitely a potential race winner but I'm seeing more consistent numbers out of the 14 and 11. Carl Edwards is fast on a short run but not as impressive on the longer runs so I can't justify burning another 99 start. My A-List sleeper is Kevin Harvick, not great on the charts but seems very happy with his ride.
B-LIST:
Dale Earnhardt Jr (5 Starts Remaining) - Junebug is absolutely flying around the track. He is one of the best cars in the entire field on a long run and is an absolute must start on your team this week. He's very happy with his car and other teams in the garage are commenting on how fast the 88 is. To give you an idea how good Hamlin is, Junior's only complaint is that he can't keep up with the 11.
Juan Pablo Montoya (7 Starts Remaining) - Juan has a lot of confidence in his car and his long runs seem to be really strong as well. Much like Stewart, I like a guy who can slide around and shift and that fits Montoya to the T. He's got good short run speed as well and could grab qualifying points.
Ryan Newman (6 Starts Remaining) - Newman makes the team for potential of qualifying points and if one of the above really chunks it in qualifying and the crew chief notes bring up some sort of shocking information. Newman is just a little behind the 42 and 88 to me but ranks really high on potential of grabbing Q points.
Brian Vickers (9 Starts Remaining) - Got to throw deep and put 1 sleeper in there right? Vickers likes this track and his lap averages are pretty decent as well. I doubt he'll get the start but I've got enough confidence in my Top 3 to slide a sleeper into the 4th spot as a potential surprise.
Just missing is Joey Logano, seems pleased with his car but was still making big changes on it late in P2, plus his bad mojo is keeping me away still. Kasey Kahne and A.J. Allmendinger also just miss the lineup, decent numbers but not enough to get into my Top 4.
C-LIST:
Regan Smith (6 Starts Remaining) - Lock. There is no other option in the C List not named David Ragan. Smith is right on par with Ragan's numbers, and the two of them are far and away better than the rest of the C-List. Start Smith with confidence this week.
Paul Menard (7 Starts Remaining) - For qualifying points only, under no circumstance should you start Paul Menard. His long runs fall off, dramatically. He's got great short run numbers but the car gets exponentially worse as the laps click off, and this race will have many long green flag runs.
Bobby Labonte looks terrible and can not make your team this week. I still wouldn't touch Sam Hornish Jr, if you need to get another name besides Smith, Ragan, Menard, I'd go Casey Mears who had a decent stint in P2.
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