After a strange and unpredictable weekend in Darlington, we move to another track that could be just as much of a wild card. The Monster Mile is known for swallowing up competitors, but lucky for you, we're here to dissect the facts and help you get a high score this weekend on the Concrete Mile. Let's take a look at the loop data from 2008-2010:
AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION:
A-List:
Johnson - 5th
Kenseth - 6th
Edwards - 6th
Biffle - 8th
B-List:
Burton - 9th
Newman - 11th
Martin - 11th
Logano - 18th
Bowyer - 19th
Allmendinger- 19th
Kahne - 20th
Keselowski- 20th
C-List:
Menard - 20th
Ragan - 22nd
Labonte - 27th
Smith - 27th
% of LAPS INSIDE the TOP 15:
A-List:
Johnson - 96%
Biffle - 82%
Gordon - 81%
Edwards - 81%
B-List:
Newman - 81%
Burton. - 64%
Martin - 62%
Bowyer - 58%
McMurray - 55%
Logano - 55%
Truex Jr. - 52%
Montoya- 50%
C-List:
Menard - 29%
Ragan - 13%
Labonte - 6%
Smith - 1%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Johnson - 131
Edwards- 107
Kenseth - 106
Biffle - 106
B-List:
Martin - 91
Newman - 91
Burton - 89
Allmendinger - 85
McMurray - 84
Bowyer - 83
Truex Jr. - 80
Montoya - 79
C-List:
Menard - 66
Ragan - 61
Labonte - 53
Smith - 52
We will also factor in momentum coming off of Darlington, and to a small extent, Bristol performance from earlier this year. Surprisingly, the correlation between results at Bristol and results at Dover are minimal, so don't put too much weight on what you saw at Thunder Valley when making your decisions.
Also note that we do get to see all of Friday practice before lockdown, so you will get to size up the competition before you lock it in. Head over to www.FantasyNascarPreview.com on Friday evening and check out our lockdown team on the Forum over there, we will be posting practice results along with other info with the experts on that forum.
A-LIST:
Pretty obvious choice here in the A-List, even though Jimmie Johnson had a rough go in Darlington, he absolutely owns this place and should make your A-List team regardless of practice performance, as they've been known not to show all of their cards in practice.
I would be surprised if anyone bumps Carl Edwards off my A-List as well. They don't call Concrete Carl for nothing. The 99 team has great momentum over the past few weeks, 11th or better in the last 4 races here on a track that Roush has always run strong at. The 99 is the leader of the Roush stable and should pair with 5-time on the roster this week.
There is a chance that Edwards could be knocked off by either of his team mates in Greg Biffle or Matt Kenseth. As noted above, Roush is always strong here, and both drivers should be in line for a Top 10, probably even a Top 5. However Kenseth is coming off a demoralizing run in Darlington where the team went 3 laps down and just put it in cruise control to salvage a finish. Biffle looked promising in practice but could never get a handle on the car at Darlington, both rank slightly behind Edwards going into practice.
Kyle Busch is another driver who could be a race winner here at Dover. He ranks right behind Johnson/Edwards in stats when you take out a few bad luck errors that skews his numbers. NASCAR dropped the hammer on Kyle and Kevin with a 4 race probation, so I am not worried about a retaliation in the race, especially when the All Star weekend is right around the corner (much better place to get even). That being said, Kyle will still have to outperform Edwards/Johnson by an impressive amount to get consideration for my A-List.
B-LIST:
Ryan Newman appears as top dog on my B-List once again, and for good reason. Top 10 in 3 out of the last 4 races here, good momentum (and overcoming adversity battling back through the field) at Darlington, and also led laps at Bristol. Qualifying and pit selection is always important here, so Newman will at least make my roster no matter what, near a lock to get a starting spot.
Can't deny that Kasey Kahne is on a roll after dominating Darlington. Kahne did run 9th at Bristol, and his stats here and fair so he gets penciled in for the time being. With how up and down Red Bull can be, he is by no means a lock, but will get consideration.
Jeff Burton is another high risk/high reward driver for this week. As we see on a weekly basis, Burton ranks towards the top of the loop data, and had a very impressive run going in Darlington until a motor let go. I'm not worried about engines at Dover with how much you float into the corners and the shorter race distance. The major downside to Burton is qualifying and a potential bad pit selection could make him a waste of a B-List spot, this is a driver who needs to impress in practice to make the squad.
You can count on 3 things, Death, Taxes, and Joey Logano having bad luck. This team has been in line for a host of Top 10 runs only to have failures and crashes take them out of the running. I always say you can't predict luck, but this season you can almost set your watch to a Logano meltdown. He's high risk and high reward with an 18th place average finish, including 2 Top 10 runs.
Richard Petty Motorsports, especially A.J. Allmendinger will end up making my team in one form or another. Dinger did the tire test here earlier this year (along with Gordon and Hamlin...Kahne did the tire test for Darlington and you see how that turned out). Allmendinger's stats above are a little skewed from 2008, the last 2 years boasts a 15 place average with 2 Top 10s. He's an excellent qualifier, especially here, he's even led laps. I will be looking for a reason to start A.J. this weekend. You can't discredit Marcos Ambrose as a potential sleeper as well. Ambrose had a solid run at Darlington, and had a solid run at Bristol earlier this year as well.
Martin Truex Jr. calls this track home and always seems to run well here before something comes up to bite this team during the race (much like the rest of this season). Truex comes with a big red flag, even if impressive in practice. Truex was impressive in practice at Bristol, qualified well, and raced well to start the race. But once the track took on more and more rubber, Truex could not keep ahead of the track, and fell to a 17th place finish.
C-LIST:
Paul Menard is by far the best option in the C-List going into this race, and should darn near be a lock for a starting position. Menard was Top 5 and led at Bristol this year, and has a Top 10 here in lesser equipment. It would take a very impressive run by a fellow C-Lister to bump the 27 out of my starting spot.
Don't get too drunk on the Regan Smith wine this week. I loved that he got the win and he's got all the confidence in the world coming into this week, but 1% of his laps have been run inside the Top 15 here, and that is a mind blowingly poor number.
David Ragan's numbers here are 2nd best behind Menard. Darlington derailed the momentum this team had, but with his Roush team mates to lean on, I think Ragan has potential here, and will also get looks as a starter.
Bobby Labonte could be a start save here in the C-List. Labonte had a solid Top 15-20 day going at Darlington before the last lap wreck, and Labonte was very stout at Bristol earlier this year. Labonte will more than likely be paired with Menard on my C this week, and if Labonte can out-qualify Menard and seems to be in his ballpark in practice, you could sneak a start out of the 47.
So remember, we get to see the practice sessions before locking down late Friday night, once again, head over to the Forum at www.FantasyNascarPreview.com to see our team heading into qualifying. We'll have a full wrap up of practice and qualifying, and our official starting team posted here on Saturday evening.
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