We obviously know pit selection and qualifying is very important here. The numbers suggest if your outside the Top 12 you're in trouble when it comes to being a race winner. So let's check out the pit selection:
Hamlin, Edwards, Gordon, and Stewart all have Top 10 starting positions, so history would show they are favorites coming into the race. However you can't count out Kyle Busch starting 14th.
I'm big on Ford's this weekend. Carl Edwards is already doing backflips out of excitement over how his car is performing, and its going to be a toss up between Edwards and Kyle Busch as to the race winner. Edwards has Robby Gordon behind him so he'll have an easy in, and an opening in front. Kyle has Bobby Labonte behind him, so that should be an easy in, but might have to contend with Martin Truex on his exit, however I do like Kyle being farther down pit road compared to Carl being in the middle of the pit lane.
2nd tier driver of Denny Hamlin and Jeff Gordon should be in contention for the win, but I think they'll just end up Top 5, Hamlin is especially pleased with his car. Both Hamlin and Gordon have pretty easy in/outs on pit road. Greg Biffle is also "extremely happy" with his car, but he chunked it in qualifying. Surprisingly, Biffle has a great pit selection, with the 37/87 on either side of him. Matt Kenseth should also be strong but his pit selection isn't as good and I think he'll rank behind Biffle, just barely. Both are Top 10 with potential Top 5.
A-LIST RANKS: 99, 18, 11, 24, 16, 17, 14, 48, 29, 22
B-LIST:
I posted on www.FantasyNascarPreview.com about having a "hunch" on Kasey Kahne, and boy was a right. Too bad I didn't have the stones to pull the trigger and put him on my team. Fact is he can't close the deal here, and has failed to finish on the lead lap the last 3 years here. Kahne was in a league of his own right off the truck, and was one of the few drivers who did a long run early, and was very impressive in that run. I still worry that Kahne won't close the deal, but he's got a Top 5 car if he can, maybe even a race winner.
Ryan Newman is also impressive and has good track position. Even though there is still some pretty heated emotions between the 39 and 42, Montoya isn't on the same pace as Newman and unless they mix it up in pit strategy, the two shouldn't see each other on track that often. Newman should be Top 10 material.
Brian Vickers, Marcos Ambrose, and A.J. Allmendinger were all impressive in qualifying, and depending on your roster, any of these 3 could be potential starters for you. Ambrose was the most impressive from this bunch at Texas, so I'll give Marcos the lead of this group in the rankings.
A lot of experts, including myself put Martin Truex Jr, Jeff Burton, and Dale Earnhardt Jr on our teams. All 3 of which were dreadful in qualifying and have dug themselves a deep hole already. I like Burton out of this group with his even temper, should be good for a Top 15. I think Martin Truex could surprise and break into the Top 10, but I could easily see him struggle and barely be Top 20 as well, he's a risk. Junior isn't up to snuff this weekend, never found speed in practice and he'll be shooting for a Top 15 at best.
B-LIST RANKS: 39, 4, 20, 9, 31, 83, 56, 43, 42, 88, 5, 00, 2, 1
C-LIST:
Surprisingly the C-List has a lot of options not named Menard this week. I'm giving the nod to David Ragan as the leader of the C, he's got the most momentum coming into this race and the best starting position and best pit selection. Regan Smith slightly out-performed Ragan in practice but I don't think he'll last the 500 miles the way Ragan will, the 78 should be battling for a Top 20 with Bobby Labonte who has been very solid and consistent this weekend.
C-LIST RANKS: 6, 47, 78, 27, rest
I did pull the last minute audible and put Biffle in for Kyle Busch, which turned out to be a mistake, so our team heading into the race looks like this:
Greg Biffle (9 Starts Remaining)
Ryan Newman (7 Starts Remaining)
Jeff Burton (6 Starts Remaining)
David Ragan (7 Starts Remaining)
Bench: Kenseth (9), Earnhardt Jr (7), Truex Jr (8), Smith (6)
This lineup could change when Mark Garrow releases his crew chief notes Saturday afternoon, since we don't have much to go off of, his notes will be of increased value this week. Check ESPN.com for his column about 3:00 PM.
I am unsure at this time if I will be hosting a live chat for this race, Darlington happens to fall on my mother's birthday and I will more than likely be taking her out for dinner (and that way I can get my time in with her, and catch the race). I do encourage everyone to check www.FantasyNascarPreview.com and their live chat which should kick off at 4:30 PM EST.
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