CHARLOTTE 1 - Loop Data & Line-Up

Next to the Daytona 500, the Coke 600 is one of the races where we get to see more practice and data before going into lockdown. First, let's take a look at the Loop Data from the last 3 years here at Charlotte (6 races total):


AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION:
A-List:
Ky. Busch - 4th
Gordon - 10th
Kenseth - 13th
Biffle - 14th

B-List:
Logano - 9th
Kahne - 11th
Reutimann - 12th
Martin - 13th

McMurray - 14th
Burton- 15th
Bowyer - 17th
Truex Jr. - 17th

C-List:
Ragan - 17th
Smith - 19th
Labonte - 21st
Menard - 26th


% of LAPS INSIDE the TOP 15:
A-List:
Ky. Busch - 91%
Johnson - 83%
Ku. Busch - 68%
Hamlin - 65%

B-List:
Logano - 87%
Reutimann. - 75%
Martin - 72%
Kahne - 68%

Burton- 65%
Truex Jr. - 65%
Bowyer - 55%
McMurray - 53%

C-List:
Ragan - 51%
Menard - 19%
Labonte - 12%
Smith - 2%


OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Ky. Busch - 122
Johnson - 109
Ku. Busch - 95
Gordon - 92

B-List:
Logano - 102
Kahne - 98
Reutimann - 93
Vickers - 92

Martin - 91
Burton - 91
McMurray - 87
Truex Jr. - 81

C-List:
Ragan - 79
Labonte - 61
Menard - 61
Smith - 61


We will also factor in results and performance from the All Star race. How does the All Star race compare to the 600? We've done the research over the last 3 years:

2010:

ALL STAR RACE:
1st - Ku. Busch - 1st in Coke 600, led most laps
2nd - Truex - 23rd in Coke 600, struggled all night
3rd - Logano - 13th in 600, led laps, 82% of laps inside Top 15
4th - Hamlin - 18th in 600, led laps, struggled around 15th all night
5th - Stewart - 15th in 600, led laps, ran about 13th all night
6th - Harvick - 11th in 600, hung around Top 10-15 all night
7th - Keselowski - 20th in 600, struggled, 5% of laps in Top 15
8th - Kenseth - 10th in 600, led lap but also hung around 10th-15th all night
9th - Biffle - 32nd in 600, but was running Top 5-10 before problems
10th - Labonte - 31st in 600, ran in the back all night

*Kyle Busch was running up front in the All Star race but was wrecked, Kyle then finished 3rd in the 600 but only spent 72% of his laps inside Top 15

*Paul Menard was 4th in the Sprint Showdown but in the 600 ran 70% of his laps inside Top 15 and finished 8th

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2009:

*Note, finishing order in 600 a little shuffled due to rain shortened race.

ALL STAR RACE:
1st - Stewart - 19th in 600, ran around Top 15 all day
2nd - Kenseth - 10th in 600, ran just inside Top 10 all day
3rd - Ku. Busch - 34th in 600, but ran 82% of laps about 10th-15th
4th - Hamlin - 11th in 600, ran inside Top 10 all day
5th - Edwards - 4th in 600, ran inside Top 5 all day
6th - Martin - 17th in 600, ran around 10th-15th
7th - Ky. Busch - 6th in 600, dominate car, led most laps
8th - Logano - 9th in 600, ran just inside Top 5 all day
9th - McMurray - 21st in 600, ran just outside Top 15 all day
10th - Earnhardt Jr - 40th in 600, issues early, never recovered

*Reutimann won the race on strategy but had a good car all night, just missed getting into the All Star race with a 3rd place in the Showdown

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2008:

ALL STAR RACE:
1st - Kahne - 1st in the 600, just 10 laps shy of leading most laps
2nd - Biffle - 2nd in 600, ran around 8th all day and then charged late
3rd - Kenseth - 7th in 600, struggled around 13th, then charged late
4th - Johnson - 39th in 600, blown engine, led laps and ran about 10th
5th - Stewart - 18th in 600, also ran about 10th all day
6th - Newman - 21st in 600, struggled, ran just inside Top 20 all night
7th - Hornish Jr - 13th in 600, (no loop data available)
8th - Earnhardt Jr - 5th in 600, led most laps, ran inside Top 5 all night
9th - Martin - 15th in 600, ran just inside Top 15 all night
10th - Edwards - 9th in 600, ran just inside Top 10 all night

*Kyle Busch wrecked in the All Star race but was running well, finished 3rd in the 600 with a lot of laps led.


It's also important to refer to the All Star race since the practices for the 600 are all in daytime conditions. The drivers always talk about Charlotte and how much it changes from day to night, so looking at the practice charts will be a little less helpful. This is more about a team being able to keep up with the race track early on when it changes from dusk to dark and if the team can survive 600 miles mistake and failure free.

We will also look at the Darlington results, as they are running the same tire combination here at Charlotte, plus we will also factor in results from Texas 1 earlier this year.




A-LIST:

Carl Edwards proved once again why he is the hands down favorite heading into the 600. Edwards will probably be the popular pick the A-List and with good reason. He was the best car on the longer runs in the All Star race, he was strong at Darlington with a 2nd behind Regan Smith, and he was 3rd at Texas. Although his numbers here aren't great Edwards has been a machine at the 1.5 mile tracks and I am trumping the past with the present. Factor in the possibility of a fuel mileage being a possibility, knowing Edwards is one of the best when it comes to saving fuel, Edwards is a lock on my A-List.

I'm loading up on Ford's this weekend and going Matt Kenseth as my 2nd A-List driver. Kenseth was decent on the longer runs during the All Star Race and absolutely dominated Texas 1 earlier this year. It was hard to tell what Kenseth had in Darlington since he ran into problems so early in the race. But with a longer 600 mile event I'll bank on the 17 to stay calm and collected into another solid finish.

Kyle Busch has the best numbers by far here and looked really good in the All Star race, and he could easily be a potential race winner. But he finds my bench this week due to return of Valve Train problems at JGR. Busch lost an engine in practice at Dover, and then Logano lost another engine in practice for the Sprint Showdown due to valve problems once again. This is one of the few races where I do consider potential engine failures into my picks. Add into the lackluster results from Texas 1 this year and I am playing it conservative and putting the 18 on the bench.

Tony Stewart is a bit of a sleeper pick in the A-List this week. He was consistent all throughout the All Star Race, and in All Star practice had the best 10-lap average of any other driver. He led at both Texas and Darlington, finishing 7th and 12th in those events. Stewart will just miss my team this week as I think he has Top 5 potential but I am also concerned as this team is having more and more problems keeping the handling under the car in the longer races. I also like Greg Biffle for a Top 5 run, he was good in the longer Segment 1 in the All Star Race and was Top 5 at Texas, but struggled on this tire combination at Darlington.

Jimmie Johnson used to absolutely dominate this place...before the repave. You can't ever say that 5-time isn't a threat to win, especially after a consistent performance throughout the All Star race. Bad luck and a few terrible performances hurt Johnson's numbers here, but I also look at the fact that he struggled on this tire at Darlington and was barely a Top 10 car at Texas 1.

B-LIST:
The 600 is one of the few cookie cutter tracks where you can go a little off the map and find some good "sleepers". However the one stud I will roll out this week is Clint Bowyer. Although he was up and down in the All Star race he will still get start consideration from me for the 600. Think of the 33 as my "safety net" this week based on his 2nd place run at Texas and his Top 10 performance at Darlington before being crashed through the Harvick/Busch squabble.

These next 2 names I would like to get starts out of, beginning with Kasey Kahne. Kahne was very impressive in the All Star race before being wrecked by Greg Biffle in Segment 2. Kahne was a dominate car at Darlington on this tire as well. Although he struggled a bit at Texas 1, statistically this is Kahne's best track on the circuit and I like him as a Top 10 car on Sunday. I am not worried about engine troubles on Kahne, has he admitted he over-revved the engine on a restart at Dover causing the downward spiral into a failure.

You simply can not ignore Marcos Ambrose any longer, and it would take a pretty lousy practice and qualifying performance out of Marcos to get benched this week. Marcos is just on fire with a strong run at Dover, a Top 5 run at Texas 1, and a Top 15 performance at Darlington. Marcos was also the fastest car on track in the longer run to the finish during the Sprint Showdown. The engine failure from Dinger at Dover gives me slight cause for concern but not enough to ignore Ambrose's amazing numbers this year.

I'm rounding out my lineup with David Reutimann. A past winner here on pit strategy was then backed up by some solid Top 10 performances. Reutimann was also able to work his way from the back of the pack to be a contender in the All Star race. Reutimann had a solid Top 15 day at Darlington, but struggled at Texas 1, but this yeam has been together for a long time and they know how to adjust on the car to keep up with changing conditions.


Joey Logano is a name I can't blame anyone for having on their B-List this weekend. Joey however is in the same boat Kyle is in, very good here but dangerous with the engine failures starting to creep back into the picture. There are other options out there that should be right on par with Logano's performance so I am playing it safe and keeping the 20 off my team this week.


Ryan Newman didn't show much in the All Star Race, with a poor performance on the long run and a mid park performance on the shorter runs. Newman had a Top 15 day at Texas 1 and had a Top 15 day that he rebounded late into a Top 5 at Darlington. For a stud like Newman there isn't enough up side to potentially burn a start with him, so he is off the team. Dale Earnhardt Jr. had an impressive showing at Texas 1 and had a good run at Darlington going before a late race commitment cone violation dropped him in the field. Junior just misses my team this week because of his terrible performance on the long runs in the All Star and Showdown races.




C-LIST:
C-List looks like standard procedure this week. David Ragan had a very impressive performance in both the Showdown and the All Star race, and his previous numbers here at Charlotte back that up as well. Ragan was also the pole sitter at Texas (as well as in the Showdown) and went onto finish 7th at Texas 1. Although he struggled at Darlington, so did Paul Menard, with the duo finishing 21st and 22nd. Menard also has a shot at making the team after a 5th place run at Texas 1. Menard looked just a touch slower than Ragan in the Showdown before being caught up in some restart troubles so Ragan has the edge on potentially grabbing the starting spot as of now.


Regan Smith and Bobby Labonte seem about on par with each other once again, and both of them have a shot at a Top 20 run. Labonte ran about mid-pack in the Showdown while Regan struggled to run with the mid-pack cars in the All Star race before having his wreck.




FNG Team for the Coke 600:
Carl Edwards (6 Starts Remaining)
Matt Kenseth (8 Starts Remaining)

Kasey Kahne (7 Starts Remaining)
Marcos Ambrose (9 Starts Remaining)
Clint Bowyer (7 Starts Remaining)
David Reutimann (9 Starts Remaining)

David Ragan (5 Starts Remaining)
Paul Menard (8 Starts Remaining)

Remember lockdown is WEDNESDAY NIGHT. Don't get caught out as practice starts Thursday and you must be locked in with your team before practice begins. Good luck!