CHARLOTTE 1 - Lockdown

Qualifying and practice is over at CMS, let's take a look at some of the important numbers and factors heading into today's race:

First up, pit selection for the race:

We'll focus on the Saturday P2 and P3 practice sessions, as the first session was almost entirely in Qualifying trim for the drivers.


P2 10-Lap Averages:

1	27	Paul Menard	1	10	185.732	1
2	22	Kurt Busch	1	10	184.930	2
3	39	Ryan Newman	1	10	184.042	15
4	2	Brad Keselowski	1	10	183.997	26
5	00	David Reutimann	1	10	183.988	18
6	48	Jimmie Johnson	1	10	183.936	17
7	88	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	19	28	183.769	3
8	13	Casey Mears	1	10	182.687	34
9	18	Kyle Busch	14	23	182.252	13
10	1	Jamie McMurray	16	25	181.935	20
11	38	Travis Kvapil(i)	1	10	181.877	33
12	33	Clint Bowyer	6	15	181.221	28

P3 10-Lap Averages:

Rank	Car#	Driver	From Lap	To Lap	Avg Speed	Overall Rank
1	18	Kyle Busch	1	10	182.480	4
2	88	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	1	10	182.139	12
3	33	Clint Bowyer	1	10	181.997	21
4	99	Carl Edwards	1	10	181.973	13
5	43	A J Allmendinger	1	10	181.681	24
6	56	Martin Truex Jr.	1	10	181.681	8
7	11	Denny Hamlin	1	10	181.503	6
8	31	Jeff Burton	29	38	181.291	5
9	27	Paul Menard	8	17	181.195	3
10	1	Jamie McMurray	18	27	181.010	15
11	83	Brian Vickers	25	34	180.998	18
12	22	Kurt Busch	22	31	180.934	9
13	20	Joey Logano	29	38	180.875	11
14	5	Mark Martin	18	27	180.634	25
15	34	David Gilliland	1	10	180.064	30
16	9	Marcos Ambrose	11	20	179.951	2
17	39	Ryan Newman	29	38	179.833	20
18	29	Kevin Harvick	20	29	179.700	27
19	00	David Reutimann	12	21	179.644	1
20	95	David Starr(i)	19	28	179.131	33
21	13	Casey Mears	20	29	178.798	36
22	38	Travis Kvapil(i)	1	10	177.984	37
23	09	Landon Cassill(i)	1	10	177.883	41

What is important to note here is how much this track changes from day to night. As you may of heard in the TV coverage, the times don't mean much in the practice sessions, it's more on how the car feels and can you adjust on it in the race.

That being said, we're ranking the drivers in the following way:


A-LIST:
Carl Edwards says his car is as good or better than the car he had in the All Star race. Yikes! If that doesn't scream lock I don't know what does. Edwards parked his car early as he felt the car was perfect for race conditions. In fact all of Roush Fenway seems pretty happy, as Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle are also extremely pleased with their rides.

No doubt that Kyle Busch continues to look impressive, putting up some of the best numbers today, and also parking his car early thinking that it will be strong for race conditions. The looming engine woes continues to have me put an asterik by his name, but if you want to gamble, the 18 could be a race winner not many would select. You can never count out Jimmie Johnson at any race track, and he should be in contention again Sunday night.

A-LIST RANKS: 99, 18, 17, 16, 48, 14, 11, 29, 24, 22

B-LIST:
Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been very impressive in practice, the car seems to be fast on long runs which we will see plenty of during the 600. Junior will have to be on point early in the race, as he starts right on the edge of the "danger zone" in 25th. If the car isn't right, he could be trapped early.

I like David Reutimann who has good speed on a short run and has a lot of adjustability in the car for the race, plus he's got a great starting position. His team mate Martin Truex Jr. also looks good but I worry that he will not be able to keep up with changing track conditions, as we've seen in the past. I like Kasey Kahne and crew chief Kenny Francis on a night track, but as always, its very hard to read Kahne in practice, he could be Top 5, he could be 25th. My guess is a Top 10 contender.

Clint Bowyer, Ryan Newman, and Joey Logano all look like decent picks, but these guys are studs and I think you can start save in the B-List this week and end up pretty good. Bowyer has been absolutely terrible all weekend until late in the final session where they seemed to hit on something. Newman was up and down in the practice session. Logano I also lump into the same boat as Kyle Busch, good car but between his terrible luck and motor issues he finds my bench.

Marcos Ambrose has been terrible in practice which has been a huge surprise. The fact that he starts 24th doesn't make me feel much better about the situation either. I will wait until I see Mark Garrow's Crew Chief notes tomorrow to see exactly what the deal is on Ambrose who seems to be fighting his car.

B-LIST RANKS: 88, 4, 33, 00, 20, 56, 9, 39, 2, 1, 5, 43, 31, 42, 83

C-LIST:
A bit of dilemma in the C-List, and it will come down to your comfort level and starts you have remaining to make your decision.

There is no doubt that Paul Menard is one of the most impressive cars on track in both practice session, he's easily Top 10 material. However there is concern that the 22 sitches in Menard's foot could get wet from sweat and come apart during this long race. Elliott Sadler is scheduled to be on stand-by for Menard (Menard would still receive points if Sadler gets into the car). Menard says its fine and he's not worried about it, and the original plan to have Sadler do some practice laps was scratched.

David Ragan is the safer choice, but only seems about Top 15 material to me. The car is consistent but he does not have the speed that Menard has shown. Personally, I have 5 Ragan starts and I've saved 8 Menard starts. I'm going to roll the dice on Menard instead of burning another Ragan start.

Regan Smith has a decent race car but will have to fight his way from the back of the field due to an engine change, which will put him in huge danger on going laps down early. I slot Bobby Labonte right in front of Smith now. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has put up impressive numbers, but I can't get behind a guy who just got thrown in the seat to do a 600 mile race when the longest race he's ever done is 300 miles.

C-LIST RANKS: 27, 6, 47, 78, 21, rest


FNG Team:
Carl Edwards (6 Starts Remaining)
Kasey Kahne (8 Starts Remaining)
David Reutimann (9 Starts Remaining)
Paul Menard (8 Starts Remaining)

Bench:
Kenseth (8), Ambrose (9), Bowyer (7), Ragan (5)

Ambrose/Reutimann is still a toss up for me, I am waiting on crew chief notes before I make my final decision on them tomorrow before lockdown.


No live chat tomorrow, as it is my birthday and I plan on going out and celebrating the 500 and the 600 with friends. I do suggest heading over the www.FantasyNascarPreview.com to check out their live race day chat. Good luck!