DOVER 1 - Lockdown

Luckily we got to see 4 solid hours of practice yesterday as qualifying was washed out. Lets look at the 10 lap averages in Practices:

P1:

Rank	Car#	Driver	From Lap	To Lap	Avg Speed	Overall Rank
1	48	Jimmie Johnson	2	11	156.243	1
2	18	Kyle Busch	1	10	154.137	6
3	5	Mark Martin	8	17	153.865	18
4	43	A J Allmendinger	2	11	153.807	2
5	17	Matt Kenseth	28	37	153.678	23
6	88	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	2	11	153.449	3
7	4	Kasey Kahne	5	14	153.440	4
8	2	Brad Keselowski	29	38	153.438	21
9	31	Jeff Burton	3	12	153.361	26
10	9	Marcos Ambrose	28	37	153.272	27
11	78	Regan Smith	1	10	153.231	9
12	1	Jamie McMurray	2	11	153.218	25
13	14	Tony Stewart	33	42	153.096	31
14	33	Clint Bowyer	1	10	152.970	16
15	22	Kurt Busch	45	54	152.945	22
16	24	Jeff Gordon	7	16	152.071	15
17	13	Casey Mears	16	25	151.858	36

P2:

Rank	Car#	Driver	From Lap	To Lap	Avg Speed	Overall Rank
1	4	Kasey Kahne	3	12	153.610	27
2	17	Matt Kenseth	2	11	153.433	9
3	48	Jimmie Johnson	54	63	153.189	23
4	27	Paul Menard	1	10	152.858	16
5	29	Kevin Harvick	21	30	152.710	31
6	43	A J Allmendinger	38	47	152.587	24
7	11	Denny Hamlin	4	13	152.482	10
8	6	David Ragan	40	49	152.415	5
9	33	Clint Bowyer	6	15	152.387	8
10	18	Kyle Busch	4	13	152.355	33
11	31	Jeff Burton	38	47	152.310	6
12	2	Brad Keselowski	31	40	152.228	2
13	00	David Reutimann	37	46	152.145	32
14	42	Juan Pablo Montoya	1	10	152.118	36
15	16	Greg Biffle	28	37	152.021	3
16	83	Brian Vickers	56	65	151.891	40
17	22	Kurt Busch	27	36	151.866	1
18	24	Jeff Gordon	48	57	151.687	43
19	88	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	18	27	151.479	41
20	20	Joey Logano	62	71	151.464	21
21	47	Bobby Labonte	41	50	150.413	39
22	09	Landon Cassill(i)	29	38	148.437	34

Starting position is important here, as passing is difficult but not impossible. What is even more critical is pit selection. This is one of, if not, the toughest pit roads on the entire circuit. It is very tight and very treacherous. A good pit selection can equal big results. Here are the pit selections for the race:

For now, here is what I see from the pracitces:

A-LIST:
Jimmie Johnson. Lock. Oddly enough the first time I've been able to say that with such confidence on 5-time this year. He was the class of the field on short runs and long runs yesterday, on a green track and a rubbered up track. Johnson is my pick to win. Having the pole and the #1 pit stall only helps solidify his solid position.

It's a pretty good drop off to the rest of the A-List. Carl Edwards should be strong, feels "good" about his car but not overly solid. Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle should all contend for Top 5s by the end of the day. I'd almost rank Kenseth above Edwards but Matt starts deep and probably won't get a good pit selection.

Kyle Busch looks strong, and if all goes well he should be a Top 5 and maybe even a race winner. But he's blown an engine, smacked the wall, and has to start in the back. With how good Johnson is, and Roush looking decent, I don't think its worth risking Kyle as a starter this week.


A-LIST RANKINGS: 48, 99, 17, 18, 16, 11, 29, 24, 14, 22

B-LIST:
This has turned into a great week to pull out your start savers. So much for A.J. Allmendinger being a sleeper pick, he's come up huge this week, starting 2nd, A.J. should be good for a Top 10. Kasey Kahne has also been solid all weekend, best of everyone in averages in P2, and coming in with great momentum he should also contend for a Top 10 finish. These are the 2 men that should be on your starting team this week.


Dale Earnhardt Jr. ends up with a great starting position and a good pit selection more than likely. His car wasn't overly fast, but it was consistent, and they are close on the setup. Look for a Top 15 run out of Junior. Jeff Burton was about the same as Junior, if not a little better than the 88 once the track rubbered up in P2. Martin Truex Jr. didn't make any long runs but his overall lap averages were about on par with the middle of the pack. Truex has a good starting spot and I think he should also hang onto a Top 15 run with the 88 and 31.

Mark Martin looks good in practice, but that's nothing new. The track will be green and I'm afraid of him and McGrew not being able to keep up with changing track conditions, which has been an issue in the past. Marcos Ambrose and Brad Keselowski both look decent, and could be surprises, but they are too big of risks for me this week.

This is a perfect week to bench guys like Ryan Newman and Clint Bowyer.  Newman has not found any speed this weekend and looked dejected during practice while sitting in the garage, add to the fact that Newman starts 28th is all the reason to bench him and save him for a more consistent week. Clint Bowyer is average at best on a green track, and a little better on the rubbered up track. Clint will have to fight his way into a Top 10, but I see him as a Top 15 so its a good week to go with other drivers and save Clint for when he looks like a solid Top 10-Top 5 car.

B-LIST RANKINGS: 4, 43, 56, 31, 88, 33, 20, 39, 9, 2, 5, 00, 42, 83, 1

C-LIST:
C-List oddly enough this week is a bit of a toss up, no one driver looks far and above better than the others. On the rubbered up track David Ragan and Paul Menard both looked about even and both seem happy with their cars. It will come down to pit selection and how many starts you have with each driver. Some of the experts argue that they'll save Menard for the 1.5 tracks where he looks more dominant.

Regan Smith and Bobby Labonte both look about on par, and might squeeze into the Top 20 by the end of the day, but I still rank Ragan and Menard above them as they are Top 15 potential.

C-LIST RANKINGS: 6, 27, 47, 78, field

Our Yahoo team this week, prior to pit selection choices:

Jimmie Johnson (9 starts remaining)
Kasey Kahne (8 starts remaining)
A.J. Allmendinger (9 starts remaining)
Paul Menard (8 starts remaining)

Join us at 12:00 Noon EST in our live chat for your up to date crew chief notes and final suggestions as we head into Dover!