First up, pit selection for the race:
We'll focus on the Saturday P2 and P3 practice sessions, as the first session was almost entirely in Qualifying trim for the drivers.
P2 10-Lap Averages:
1 | 27 | Paul Menard | 1 | 10 | 185.732 | 1 |
2 | 22 | Kurt Busch | 1 | 10 | 184.930 | 2 |
3 | 39 | Ryan Newman | 1 | 10 | 184.042 | 15 |
4 | 2 | Brad Keselowski | 1 | 10 | 183.997 | 26 |
5 | 00 | David Reutimann | 1 | 10 | 183.988 | 18 |
6 | 48 | Jimmie Johnson | 1 | 10 | 183.936 | 17 |
7 | 88 | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 19 | 28 | 183.769 | 3 |
8 | 13 | Casey Mears | 1 | 10 | 182.687 | 34 |
9 | 18 | Kyle Busch | 14 | 23 | 182.252 | 13 |
10 | 1 | Jamie McMurray | 16 | 25 | 181.935 | 20 |
11 | 38 | Travis Kvapil(i) | 1 | 10 | 181.877 | 33 |
12 | 33 | Clint Bowyer | 6 | 15 | 181.221 | 28 |
P3 10-Lap Averages:
Rank | Car# | Driver | From Lap | To Lap | Avg Speed | Overall Rank |
1 | 18 | Kyle Busch | 1 | 10 | 182.480 | 4 |
2 | 88 | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 1 | 10 | 182.139 | 12 |
3 | 33 | Clint Bowyer | 1 | 10 | 181.997 | 21 |
4 | 99 | Carl Edwards | 1 | 10 | 181.973 | 13 |
5 | 43 | A J Allmendinger | 1 | 10 | 181.681 | 24 |
6 | 56 | Martin Truex Jr. | 1 | 10 | 181.681 | 8 |
7 | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 1 | 10 | 181.503 | 6 |
8 | 31 | Jeff Burton | 29 | 38 | 181.291 | 5 |
9 | 27 | Paul Menard | 8 | 17 | 181.195 | 3 |
10 | 1 | Jamie McMurray | 18 | 27 | 181.010 | 15 |
11 | 83 | Brian Vickers | 25 | 34 | 180.998 | 18 |
12 | 22 | Kurt Busch | 22 | 31 | 180.934 | 9 |
13 | 20 | Joey Logano | 29 | 38 | 180.875 | 11 |
14 | 5 | Mark Martin | 18 | 27 | 180.634 | 25 |
15 | 34 | David Gilliland | 1 | 10 | 180.064 | 30 |
16 | 9 | Marcos Ambrose | 11 | 20 | 179.951 | 2 |
17 | 39 | Ryan Newman | 29 | 38 | 179.833 | 20 |
18 | 29 | Kevin Harvick | 20 | 29 | 179.700 | 27 |
19 | 00 | David Reutimann | 12 | 21 | 179.644 | 1 |
20 | 95 | David Starr(i) | 19 | 28 | 179.131 | 33 |
21 | 13 | Casey Mears | 20 | 29 | 178.798 | 36 |
22 | 38 | Travis Kvapil(i) | 1 | 10 | 177.984 | 37 |
23 | 09 | Landon Cassill(i) | 1 | 10 | 177.883 | 41 |
What is important to note here is how much this track changes from day to night. As you may of heard in the TV coverage, the times don't mean much in the practice sessions, it's more on how the car feels and can you adjust on it in the race.
That being said, we're ranking the drivers in the following way:
A-LIST:
Carl Edwards says his car is as good or better than the car he had in the All Star race. Yikes! If that doesn't scream lock I don't know what does. Edwards parked his car early as he felt the car was perfect for race conditions. In fact all of Roush Fenway seems pretty happy, as Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle are also extremely pleased with their rides.
No doubt that Kyle Busch continues to look impressive, putting up some of the best numbers today, and also parking his car early thinking that it will be strong for race conditions. The looming engine woes continues to have me put an asterik by his name, but if you want to gamble, the 18 could be a race winner not many would select. You can never count out Jimmie Johnson at any race track, and he should be in contention again Sunday night.
A-LIST RANKS: 99, 18, 17, 16, 48, 14, 11, 29, 24, 22
B-LIST:
Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been very impressive in practice, the car seems to be fast on long runs which we will see plenty of during the 600. Junior will have to be on point early in the race, as he starts right on the edge of the "danger zone" in 25th. If the car isn't right, he could be trapped early.
I like David Reutimann who has good speed on a short run and has a lot of adjustability in the car for the race, plus he's got a great starting position. His team mate Martin Truex Jr. also looks good but I worry that he will not be able to keep up with changing track conditions, as we've seen in the past. I like Kasey Kahne and crew chief Kenny Francis on a night track, but as always, its very hard to read Kahne in practice, he could be Top 5, he could be 25th. My guess is a Top 10 contender.
Clint Bowyer, Ryan Newman, and Joey Logano all look like decent picks, but these guys are studs and I think you can start save in the B-List this week and end up pretty good. Bowyer has been absolutely terrible all weekend until late in the final session where they seemed to hit on something. Newman was up and down in the practice session. Logano I also lump into the same boat as Kyle Busch, good car but between his terrible luck and motor issues he finds my bench.
Marcos Ambrose has been terrible in practice which has been a huge surprise. The fact that he starts 24th doesn't make me feel much better about the situation either. I will wait until I see Mark Garrow's Crew Chief notes tomorrow to see exactly what the deal is on Ambrose who seems to be fighting his car.
B-LIST RANKS: 88, 4, 33, 00, 20, 56, 9, 39, 2, 1, 5, 43, 31, 42, 83
C-LIST:
A bit of dilemma in the C-List, and it will come down to your comfort level and starts you have remaining to make your decision.
There is no doubt that Paul Menard is one of the most impressive cars on track in both practice session, he's easily Top 10 material. However there is concern that the 22 sitches in Menard's foot could get wet from sweat and come apart during this long race. Elliott Sadler is scheduled to be on stand-by for Menard (Menard would still receive points if Sadler gets into the car). Menard says its fine and he's not worried about it, and the original plan to have Sadler do some practice laps was scratched.
David Ragan is the safer choice, but only seems about Top 15 material to me. The car is consistent but he does not have the speed that Menard has shown. Personally, I have 5 Ragan starts and I've saved 8 Menard starts. I'm going to roll the dice on Menard instead of burning another Ragan start.
Regan Smith has a decent race car but will have to fight his way from the back of the field due to an engine change, which will put him in huge danger on going laps down early. I slot Bobby Labonte right in front of Smith now. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has put up impressive numbers, but I can't get behind a guy who just got thrown in the seat to do a 600 mile race when the longest race he's ever done is 300 miles.
C-LIST RANKS: 27, 6, 47, 78, 21, rest
FNG Team:
Carl Edwards (6 Starts Remaining)
Kasey Kahne (8 Starts Remaining)
David Reutimann (9 Starts Remaining)
Paul Menard (8 Starts Remaining)
Bench:
Kenseth (8), Ambrose (9), Bowyer (7), Ragan (5)
Ambrose/Reutimann is still a toss up for me, I am waiting on crew chief notes before I make my final decision on them tomorrow before lockdown.
No live chat tomorrow, as it is my birthday and I plan on going out and celebrating the 500 and the 600 with friends. I do suggest heading over the www.FantasyNascarPreview.com to check out their live race day chat. Good luck!