TEXAS 1 - Lockdown Lineup

With practices in the day and the race at night, the numbers don't mean much from the time sheets. Instead we will go with qualifying results (as track position and pit selection is surprisingly important here) and past performance:

First lets take a look at the pit selection:



A-LIST:
Hard to argue against Carl Edwards this week. If you had to pick a winner you would think it would be Cousin Carl. He adjusts his car well as the track changes from dusk to night, and he'll be in the hunt to lead the most laps as well if he can keep a handle on the car early in the race. Edwards also has an easy in/out with his pit selection.

Jimmie Johnson should be good for a Top 5, but you already knew that. Rank Matt Kenseth as another that should be Top 5 at the end of the day, ahead of Greg Biffle who had a dismal qualifying performance. Kevin Harvick says he's happy with his car and coming off of momentum he might be a sleeper to go 3-strait. Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin look decent, but with better A-List options available I'd bench them this week and see how their engine reliability goes. Tony Stewart seems to have a "stable" car, but not overly fast. He's starting deep in the field but I still think he can make a run to the front by the end of the night.

A-LIST RANKS: 99-48-17-18-29-14-11-16-24-22


B-LIST:
The B-List was a disappointment across the board after qualifying. It's a heavy mix of guys starting up front that I'm not confident they can stay there, and guys starting deep who could make a charge through the field.

Clint Bowyer and Ryan Newman should be solid starts and they both have an easy in/out on their pit selection, but I would not roll out both of them if you've got them available. There are deeper options this week that could get you equal value. Kasey Kahne is hit or miss on these 1.5 mile tracks, this weekend he looks hit and I would not be afraid to roll out another 4 start. Kahne also has lappers on either side of him for an easy in/out on pit selection.

Juan Pablo Montoya starts deep but is one of my picks of someone who should stay ahead of the track and move up into the Top 15. I'm not as confident in Dale Earnhardt Jr. moving up from his deeper starting position. He could get there but it won't be until late in the race, and one small hickup on a pit stop would bury Junior.

Sleepers include Richard Petty Motorsports A.J. Allmendinger and Marcos Ambrose. The RPM cars were good at Vegas and weren't too bad at Texas last year with their respective drivers, both of them could be around the Top 15 by the end of the day. David Reutimann and Brian Vickers could come from their deeper starting positions and I have them more towards a Top 20 finish.

I'm staying away from Mark Martin and Jeff Burton. I don't think Martin is going to progress much from his 21st starting position, and I think Burton will fall from his 12th starting position. Stay away from Martin Truex Jr. starting deep in the field as well.

B-LIST RANKS: 33-4-39-42-20-43-1-9-00-83-5-31-56


C-LIST:
I'm going to go ahead and predict that Paul Menard will finish ahead of David Ragan, but again you can't start Menard 36 times and its all about finding value in the other guys who will be in Menard's ball park. With Ragan having potential to lead the first lap, that's 10 bonus points he could grab that Menard probably won't get, or 5 positions. I don't see Menard finishing much more than 5 positions ahead of Ragan by the end of the day, so I'm putting Ragan in my lineup.

Regan Smith is another guy who could sneak a Top 15-20 finish out of his day, as he's shown promise on 1.5 mile tracks in the past. Trevor Bayne has a good starting position but I think he will fade and only be around a 25th place car. Bobby Labonte and the rest are too far off to even get consideration.

C-LIST RANKS: 6-27-78-21


FNG TEXAS LOCKDOWN LINEUP:

Carl Edwards (7 Starts Remaining)
Ryan Newman (8 Starts Remaining)
Juan Pablo Montoya (8 Starts Remaining)
David Ragan (8 Starts Remaining)

Bench:
Tony Stewart (8 Starts Remaining)
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (8 Starts Remaining)
Brian Vickers (9 Starts Remaining)
Paul Menard (8 Starts Remaining)

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