RICHMOND 1 - Preview

A little advance preview edition of FNG for you to marinate on over your holiday weekend. We're taking a look at the Loop Data, Driver Momentum, and all the interesting stats you crave. Let's get started:

First lets take a look at Loop Data using Richmond 08-10, Loudon 08-10, and Phoenix 08-10 (plus the '11 spring race):

AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION:
A-List:
Johnson - 8th
J. Gordon - 8th
Ky. Busch - 8th
Hamlin - 9th

B-List:
Martin - 11th
Newman - 11th
Bowyer - 13th
Burton - 15th

Montoya - 15th
Reutimann - 16th
Logano - 16th
Ambrose - 16th

C-List:
Ragan - 27th
R. Gordon - 27th
Menard - 28th
Smith - 28th

% of LAPS in the TOP 15:
A-List:
Johnson - 89%
Ky. Busch - 87%
J. Gordon - 83%
Ku. Busch - 82%


B-List:
Newman - 73%
Montoya - 70%
Bowyer - 68%
Martin - 66%

Burton - 64%
Reutimann - 54%
Truex Jr. - 54%
Allmendinger - 46%


C-List:
Ragan - 10%
Smith - 8%
Menard - 8%
Labonte - 3%

OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Johnson - 112
Ky. Busch - 109
J. Gordon - 109
Hamlin - 108


B-List:
Martin - 96
Bowyer - 94
Montoya - 93

Newman - 92

Montoya - 15th
Reutimann - 16th
Logano - 16th
Ambrose - 16th


C-List:
Ragan - 57
Smith - 56
Menard - 53
R. Gordon - 52


Now let's take a look at just Richmond from 2008-2010, all of the COT races ran there so far:


AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION:
A-List:
Ky. Busch - 4th
J. Gordon - 7th
Hamlin - 9th
Stewart - 11th


B-List:
Bowyer - 9th
Burton - 9th
Martin - 10th
Newman - 12th

Ambrose - 12th
Logano - 13th
Montoya - 17th
Truex Jr. - 19th


C-List:
Ragan - 25th
Labonte - 28th
R. Gordon - 28th
Smith - 28th

% of LAPS in the TOP 15:
A-List:
Hamlin - 93%
Ky. Busch - 90%
Harvick - 89%
Gordon - 75%



B-List:
Bowyer - 81%
Burton - 73%
Newman - 73%
Martin - 69%


Montoya - 60%
Truex Jr. - 60%
Ambrose - 52%
Kahne - 46%



C-List:
Ragan - 12%
Smith - 7%

Labonte - 4%

Menard - 4%

OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Hamlin - 125

Ky. Busch - 118

J. Gordon - 107

Harvick - 103



B-List:
Bowyer - 101
Martin - 98
Burton - 93

Newman - 91



Truex Jr. - 86

Montoya - 84

Ambrose - 81

Earnhardt Jr. - 81



C-List:
Ragan - 59
Smith - 53

Labonte - 52

Menard - 50


Taking into account the loop data above, driver momentum, heavier weight on Phoenix 2011 performance, a slight look at Martinsville 2011, and considering qualifying performance since starting position is important here at Richmond, we've come up with the following:

A-LIST:
KYLE BUSCH (8 Starts Remaining) - Lock. This is a no brainer. Kyle is outstanding on the short tracks, especially Richmond. Busch also finished 2nd at Phoenix this year and 3rd at Martinsville this year (and 1st at Bristol to boot). It would take a pretty outstanding practice and qualifying run from another competitor to knock Kyle Busch out of starting this week.

DENNY HAMLIN (8 Starts Remaining) - The 2nd B-List spot I've debated between a host of different drivers, but ultimately I landed on Denny Hamlin. Again, I doubt anyone will knock Kyle from the starting spot, so I'm giving Hamlin the best chance at scoring Qualifying points for us. Hamlin has been nothing to write home about this year, and his lack of momentum does worry me. But if he can turn it around, it's going to be here at Richmond. His numbers here are too hard to ignore, but honestly, I'm just hoping for Q points from the 11.


Just missing the 2nd spot in my A-List is Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, and Jimmie Johnson (in that order). Gordon's dominance at Phoeinx this year and his great loop data here just does miss the cut as again, the numbers show Hamlin to be a better qualifier. Harvick has had a great flat track season in 2011 and his numbers here aren't bad either, but he also misses the cut on qualifying performance. I do suspect Johnson will be Top 5 again, but I'm still playing it conservative on Team 48 for now. Carl Edwards has a bullet car in Phoenix 2011 before being wrecked, but I think that was more of a fluke than a reason to bump Edwards above the rest, I'll save the 99 for 1.5s.





B-LIST:
CLINT BOWYER (8 Starts Remaining) - Lock. Bowyer is coming off momentum of two 2nd place finishes in a row, his loop data here leads everyone in the B-List, and his loop data at flat tracks in general also leads almost everyone. This one is a no-brainer.

RYAN NEWMAN (8 Starts Remaining) - Not a lock but an absolute must-have on your team going into the weekend. Newman ranks inside the Top 4 in Loop Data at both Richmond and the flat tracks. Newman was 5th at Phoenix this year and had a Top 10 going at Martinsville before cut tires and mechanical failure dropped him through the field. With qualifying important here at Richmond, The Rocket is in strong contention for another start.

DALE EARNHARDT JR. (7 Starts Remaining) - I'm still riding the Junior-Nation wave, Richmond isn't a bad track for Junebug historically, his loop data is fair here. What puts him over the top is his 10th place performance at Phoenix and 2nd place at Martinsville, coupled with his overall momentum.

A.J. ALLMENDINGER (9 Starts Remaining) - This is my "not for the faint at heart" pick of the week. I'm leaving some good names off my team to go sleeper with the Dinger. A.J. is coming off a 9th in Phoenix and 14th in Martinsville, where he ran inside the Top 10 for a good portion of the race. He was 8th here in the fall last year, 10th and 12th at Loudon in 2010. The 43 has also proved he can step up and be a great qualifier as well. I'm giving Dinger a shot at the big show this week.

I debated on Dale Jr, Juan Pablo Montoya, and Joey Logano for my 3rd B-List spot, ultimately it went to the 88. I've personally used JPM and Logano twice already this year. Montoya's loop data and performance at Martinsville is commendable, but his Phoenix performance wasn't that impressive, plus I like Montoya on some of the 1.5 mile tracks, the bigger flat tracks, and the road courses coming up, so I'm saving my 7 remaining starts with JPM for those tracks. Logano has potential to shine here, could be good for some qualifying points if nothing else. He didn't get a chance to show us what he had at Phoenix and his Martinsville performance was a 15th place effort most of the day. I might be missing the Logano band wagon by a week, but he doesn't make my team.

Another good start save option is Marcos Ambrose. His numbers here last year were fantastic and his name pops up inside the Top 8 on some of our loop data above. However his performance last year was with a different team, and a 16th at Phoenix and a 29th at Martinsville gives my sleeper edge to A.J. this week.

Jeff Burton and Mark Martin appear strong on the Loop Data, as they will for a lot of tracks this year. Burton calls Virginia home and he would love to make another great impression here, but the risk is too high for the potential reward. We've seen Burton have promise going into tracks like Phoenix and Martinsville where he ended as a dud, Burton is not known for being a great qualifier so I don't see how he would bump Bowyer or Newman off my team if he got a spot. Martin has simply not got it together this year with McGrew, and he's still on my avoid list until they can prove something to me on track for the duration of a race.


C-LIST:
BOBBY LABONTE (8 Starts Remaining) - I'll be a little biased saying that I'm looking for an excuse to start Labonte. This is the team that propelled Ambrose to his great runs here last year. 21st at Phoenix (right behind Menard and Mears in 17th/18th as the Top 2 C-Listers), Top 10 at Bristol, and a potential Top 10 run at Martinsville before getting punted by Kurt Busch. The Ragan/Menard duo isn't overly impressive here numbers wise, so this is a good opportunity to use Labonte in one of the few places he could run in the ballpark with the 6 and 27.

DAVID RAGAN (7 Starts Remaining) - Ragan leads all C-Listers in loop data here at Richmond and on the flat tracks, and he is my backup in-case Labonte craps the bed. Ragan got wrecked in Phoenix but had potential to be the Top C-List driver there. Ragan was the lead C-List driver at Martinsville with 8th place finish.

This is a good track to save Paul Menard. As mentioned above, he was the Top C-List driver in 17th, but Labonte was 21st which is a better start value in the long run. Menard was absolutely junk at Martinsville before falling out of the race. Menard's numbers here in the past and on short tracks also do not rank highly against the rest of the C. Regan Smith numbers here aren't bad, but I'm going Labonte for the start-save option over Regan for sure. Don't forget to remove Trevor Bayne from your team if he was on it in Talladega, he is not entered here or for the next 3 cup races.


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