RICHMOND 1 - Lockdown

Practice and qualifying is in the books, and here is how we break down the field for tonight's race:

Let's take a look at the numbers first:

P1 Overall Lap Averages:

A-List:
Harvick - 22.42 (47 Laps)
Ky. Busch - 22.45 (64)
Hamlin - 22.47 (65)
Gordon - 22.52 (49)

B-List:
Bowyer - 22.46 (64 Laps)
Martin - 22.47 (68)
Allmendinger - 22.48 (55)
Montoya - 20.50 (57)
Earnhardt Jr. - 20.51 (62)
Logano - 22.51 (74)
Newman - 20.58 (71)
Burton - 20.58 (61)
Ambrose - 22.61 (68)

C-List:
Labonte - 22.52 (59 Laps)
Ragan - 22.61 (82)
Menard - 22.63 (66)

And here are the 10-Lap Averages:

Rank Car# Driver From Lap To Lap Avg Speed
1 78 Regan Smith 2 11 122.368
2 11 Denny Hamlin 3 12 121.937
3 14 Tony Stewart 1 10 121.811
4 47 Bobby Labonte 31 40 121.164
5 56 Martin Truex Jr. 42 51 121.066
6 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 7 16 121.001
7 5 Mark Martin 42 51 120.971
8 42 Juan Pablo Montoya 35 44 120.930
9 16 Greg Biffle 52 61 120.905
10 34 David Gilliland 2 11 120.886
11 6 David Ragan 50 59 120.728
12 27 Paul Menard 10 19 120.450
13 48 Jimmie Johnson 15 24 120.449
14 39 Ryan Newman 40 49 120.358
15 9 Marcos Ambrose 38 47 120.310
16 00 David Reutimann 42 51 120.171
17 22 Kurt Busch 14 23 120.157
18 99 Carl Edwards 28 37 120.147
19 31 Jeff Burton 36 45 120.115
20 2 Brad Keselowski 36 45 120.046
21 83 Brian Vickers 34 43 120.007
22 1 Jamie McMurray 47 56 119.971
23 17 Matt Kenseth 29 38 119.933
24 33 Clint Bowyer 45 54 119.905
25 20 Joey Logano 18 27 119.656
26 24 Jeff Gordon 39 48 118.889
27 43 A J Allmendinger 37 46 118.763
28 32 Ken Schrader 47 56 118.697
29 18 Kyle Busch 49 58 118.472
30 71 Andy Lally # 1 10 117.404


P2 was mostly qualifying runs, but here are the few that mixed in race runs:

A-List:
Harvick - 22.29 (24 Laps)
Ky. Busch - 22.33 (37)
Gordon - 22.43 (44)
Hamlin - 22.65 (59)

B-List:
Earnhardt Jr. - 22.27 (21 Laps)
Martin - 22.30 (25)
Burton - 22.45 (31)
Allmendinger - 22.46 (27)
Logano - 22.51 (45)

C-List:
(All on Q runs only)

And 10-Lap Averages from P2:

1 24 Jeff Gordon 33 42 121.930
2 48 Jimmie Johnson 33 42 121.927
3 4 Kasey Kahne 36 45 121.675
4 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1 10 121.663
5 5 Mark Martin 1 10 121.523
6 17 Matt Kenseth 1 10 121.411
7 29 Kevin Harvick 14 23 121.390
8 18 Kyle Busch 3 12 121.368
9 22 Kurt Busch 17 26 121.356
10 11 Denny Hamlin 26 35 121.162
11 20 Joey Logano 32 41 121.115
12 2 Brad Keselowski 1 10 121.054
13 31 Jeff Burton 5 14 120.318 

   

A-LIST:
Kyle Busch is the no-brainer start here. Don't be concerned about him starting mid pack, he's won from much farther back here before. Busch was happy with the handling and balance of his car. His stats are fantastic here, the JGR brake program is top notch. You should not hesitate to roll out a Kyle Busch start here, he is #1 in the rankings this week.

I'm putting Jeff Gordon in my #2 spot this week. Gordon was great on this tire in Phoenix and also has been talking about how happy he is with the balance of his car, so he's got another potential race winner here tonight. Denny Hamlin has race winning potential as well, and he's got momentum from winning twice already this weekend, but this team has not been able to close the deal yet, so he slides just behind Gordon in my rankings. Kevin Harvick could once again be Mr. Where-did-he-come-from tonight, as his car was fast on the speed charts, but Harvick is not happy with the balance of his race car, and it will take some work on his setup to get to the front of the field. Carl Edwards looks solid and in-line for a Top-10, but I'd save him for the 1.5s where he appears dominate.

A-LIST RANKINGS: 18, 24, 11, 29, 48, 99, 22, rest

B-LIST:
Clint Bowyer is still a lock here, he's the only potential race winner I see out of the B-List. His track record here is phenominal, he's got the most momentum coming into this race than any other driver, and his very happy with his car coming into tonight's race. Start the 33 without any doubts.


Juan Pablo Montoya grabbed the pole and will use the #1 pit stall to his advantage often during tonight's race. He's got a Top 10 ride and should lead laps early for bonus points. JPM grabs the #2 spot in my rankings this week. Ryan Newman had an unusually disappointing qualifying run, but I do think he will be Top 10 potential all night long. Joey Logano is quietly having a solid weekend, he's not that fast but he's consistent without having a lot of fall off over the course of his runs. Dale Earnhardt Jr. confidence has been shaken, not sure how or why but he had it in his head that he was going to suck in qualifying, and he did. If his mindset is still there by race time, then he's a must bench. However I do see Top 15 potential out of him if he gets his head right.

A.J. Allmendinger is the best start-save option out of the B-List, he's Top 15 potential. Won't lead any laps so I still rank him behind 33, 42, 39 for sure. But if you only have 1 of those 3 on your team, A.J. wouldn't be bad to pair with them. Martin Truex Jr. is also posting impressive numbers this weekend, but that's not unusual for Truex to practice good and fall off in the race. I'm not buying Mark Martin yet either, practiced well and says he's happy with his car, but that happens every week, and he continues to fall off each week in the races with poor communication and execution with McGrew on the pit box. Jeff Burton is a little disappointing this week, I barely see Top 15 potential out of him as he has not been able to find speed this weekend.

B-LIST RANKINGS: 33, 42, 39, 20, 88, 43, 4, 56, 31, 5, 9, rest

C-LIST:
Paul Menard, we say it every week, he'll be the class of the C-List once again. If you have him on your team, I'd still be a little borderline on starting him, as again, it's all about finding the races where Menard will crush the rest of the C-List, and I don't think Menard will obliterate the C-List like he does at the bigger tracks, I see Menard as potential Top 15.

I like Bobby Labonte as a start save here, he's got a good starting position and I expect him to stay Top 15-20 all night long. His car was very consistent over the course of a run, probably more consistent than anyone else's car in the field in fact. I think Regan Smith will fall back from his good starting position, but use his good pit selection to be potential Top 20. David Ragan has not impressed me much this weekend, I see him as potential Top 20 only.

C-LIST RANKINGS: 27, 47, 6, 78, 13, rest

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