Back to the 1.5 miler this week in Texas, under the lights. This week we're looking at Loop Data from 2008-2010 on Atlanta, Charlotte, and Texas. Loop Data from 2008-2010 of only Texas, plus focusing in on the 2010 results, performance at Las Vegas/California, and momentum coming off of Martinsville.
*Important to remember, we get to see 1 practice session late Thursday afternoon before we have to lock-in our lineup Thursday night. This will also be the ONLY practice session that will be broadcast on TV. There will be a 2nd/Final session on Friday afternoon that will NOT be broadcast. Qualifying will be after the 2nd/Final session.
First the Loop Data, 2008-2010 from Atlanta, Charlotte, and Texas combined:
AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION:
A-List:
Ky. Busch - 9th
Kenseth - 10th
Johnson - 13th
Gordon - 13th
B-List:
Martin - 14th
Burton - 15th
Newman - 15th
Kahne - 16th
Bowyer - 16th
McMurray - 19th
Reutimann - 19th
Vickers - 19th
C-List:
Bayne - 16th*
Ragan - 19th
Menard - 23rd
Labonte 25th
* only 1 start at Texas, compared to a maximum of 18 from other drivers.
% LAPS in the TOP 15:
A-List:
Ky. Busch - 78%
Johnson - 77%
Hamlin - 71%
Stewart - 69%
B-List:
Kahne - 63%
Truex Jr - 60%
Burton - 58%
Bowyer - 58%
Martin - 58%
Reutimann - 56%
Earnhardt Jr - 54%
Montoya - 54%
C-List:
Ragan - 38%
Menard - 25%
Labonte - 10%
Bayne - 4%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Ky. Busch - 110
Johnson - 101
Hamlin - 98
Gordon - 96
B-List:
Kahne - 91
Martin - 85
Bowyer - 85
Reutimann - 85
Burton - 84
Earnhardt Jr - 82
Truex Jr - 82
Vickers - 82
C-List:
Ragan - 75
Bayne - 65*
Menard - 65
Labonte 54
* only 1 start at Texas, compared to a maximum of 18 from other drivers.
Now taking a look at 2008-2010 Texas only:
AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION:
A-List:
Hamlin - 6th
Kenseth - 8th
Johnson - 11th
Harvick - 11th
B-List:
Martin - 7th
Bowyer - 14th
Burton - 14th
Newman - 15th
Earnhardt Jr - 18th
Allmendinger - 19th
McMurray - 20th
Kahne - 20th
C-List:
Bayne - 17th*
Ragan - 17th
Menard - 21st
Smith - 29th
* only 1 start at Texas, compared to a maximum of 18 from other drivers.
% LAPS in the TOP 15:
A-List:
Biffle - 89%
Edwards - 85%
Stewart - 77%
Kenseth - 76%
B-List:
Reutimann - 74%
Earnhardt Jr - 69%
Martin - 67%
Bowyer - 66%
Burton - 63%
Kahne - 53%
Montoya - 50%
McMurray - 48%
C-List:
Ragan - 47%
Menard - 33%
Bayne - 4%
Smith - 1%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Biffle - 108
Ky. Busch - 106
Edwards - 105
Kenseth - 100
B-List:
Martin - 95
Reutimann - 95
Bowyer - 93
Earnhardt Jr - 88
Burton - 84
McMurray - 80
Kahne - 77
Newman - 75
C-List:
Ragan - 80
Menard - 71
Bayne - 65*
Labonte 45
* only 1 start at Texas, compared to a maximum of 18 from other drivers.
2010 at Texas saw Denny Hamlin win both races.
The spring race saw Jeff Gordon lead the most laps, but a major wreck took him and race winning contender Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards down with him (along with impressive runs by Montoya, McMurray, Reutimann, and Menard). Once the dust settled there it was Johnson 2nd, Ky. Busch 3rd, Kahne being the top B-Lister in 5th with Martin 6th, Junior 8th and Truex Jr 9th. David Ragan was the Top C-Lister in 15th with Regan Smith 21st.
The fall race here was the much talked about Jimmie Johnson mid-race pit crew swap, Johnson still managed to bring home 9th. Hamlin took the lead in the very closing laps away from Matt Kenseth (2nd) while Greg Biffle led the most laps and finished 5th. B-Listers saw Martin 3rd, Logano 4th, Bowyer 7th, and Kahne 13th (driving for Red Bull). C-Listers were Ragan in 8th and Menard in 10th. This is also the race where Burton/Gordon had their under-caution colision, and where Martin Truex Jr. was lightning fast in practice but then struggled terribly in the race before smacking the wall twice and getting a DNF.
Noteables from the 2011 races at Las Vegas and California include:
A-List: Edwards (Vegas Winner), Harvick (Cali winner), Stewart (led most laps at Vegas, Top 5 until late at Cali), Ky. Busch (led most laps at Cali, blown motor at Vegas)
B-List: Montoya (3rd Vegas, 10th Cali), Kahne (14th Vegas, 9th Cali), Vickers (10th Vegas, 8th Cali), Newman (5th Vegas, 5th Cali), Earnhardt Jr (8th Vegas, 12th Cali)
C-List: Menard (12th Vegas, 16th Cali), Ragan (22nd Vegas & Cali), Bayne (20th Vegas, 30th Cali)
With all of these factors, here is our "short list" of those to watch on Thursday before lockdown:
A-LIST:
CARL EDWARDS (7 Starts Remaining) - Edwards had terrible luck at Texas in 2010 between the crash in the spring race and a pit road mistake that dropped him deep in the field at the fall race. Edwards does have 3 wins here however, and won at Las Vegas. He's 3rd in Loop Data at Texas and is in the Top 15 over 80% of the time. This is a Roush friendly track and I wouldn't mind using another Edwards start here.
JIMMIE JOHNSON (9 Starts Remaining) - Johnson was 2nd and 9th (after a unheard of pit crew swap) at Texas in 2010. He's excellent at these 1.5 mile tracks, and I have yet to pull the trigger on a 48 start this year. If I do hear more "testing" rumors coming out of the 48 camp (Texas is a Chase track), and there are better options in the A after Thursday practice, I will bench the 48. Otherwise Jimmie is making the team going into Friday.
KYLE BUSCH (8 Starts Remaining) - A lot of people are refusing to touch JGR this week because of previous engine issues. I am about 75% sold that they've got the issue fixed. Busch had the DOMINANT car here in the fall race, and then a pit road penalty and an "unsportstman-like conduct" penalty buried him for the rest of the day. His stats are too good to ignore simply because of an engine issue, and if he looks strong again in practice, I will gamble and put him on my team. If it's more-or-less a tie between Busch and someone else in the A-List for a spot on the team, only then would the engine factor would then play in as the tie-breaker.
Surprisingly I'm probably staying away from Denny Hamlin this week. The team has no momentum coming off a disappointing Martinsville race (one where they fell out of contention as the track conditions changed). Hamlin did win both races here, but the fall race he stole in the closing laps and did not have the dominant car. Likewise in the spring race a major crash took out a good chunk of the competitors that were potential race winners. Unless Hamlin is dominant in Thursday practice, he will find the bench.
Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle will also get consideration this week, as their track record here is impressive. However I always preach "pick race winners" in the A-List, and rarely do Kenseth and Biffle strike me as potential race winners. With the yahoo format, you don't really need to "start save" in the A-List, you can get 9 starts out of Johnson, Edwards, Ky. Busch and a mix of 9 starts out of Stewart, Hamlin, and Harvick and be done with the A-List. Tony Stewart will also get some consideration in practice based on Las Vegas and California performance, but I do not like the team momentum after throwing away a great run at California and being an embarrassment all weekend at Martinsville.
B-LIST:
RYAN NEWMAN (8 Starts Remaining) - Even though he hate late engine problems at Martinsville, the team continued to show why they are the class of the B-List so far this season. 5th at Vegas, 5th at California will more than likely at least get him on the team for this week. His numbers here at Texas and at the 1.5 mile tracks aren't spectacular, but with this team on a roll, this year could help boost his overall stats.
KASEY KAHNE (8 Starts Remaining) - Kahne had great numbers here last year with a 5th and 13th (Fall race in the Red Bull ride). These 1.5 mile tracks are either really good or really bad for Kahne, so practice will determine which side of the pendulum he's swinging on this week. He's been Top 10/Top 10 potential at Vegas and California and that's got me interested enough to give him consideration this week.
BRIAN VICKERS (9 Starts Remaining) - Respect "The Sheriff". Vickers is an excellent start-save option this week, and I will be watching his performance closely here. 2 Top 10s at Vegas and California this year. Much like Newman, his past numbers here and on the 1.5s aren't spectacular, but with this team riding the wave of momentum I will give him consideration.
DALE EARNHARDT JR. (8 Starts Remaining) - No reason to jump off this bandwagon yet. This is another track where Steve Letarte was great with Jeff Gordon last year, 8th at Vegas and 12th at Cali, plus he ranks well amongst other B-List drivers in the loop data. You always love the place where you got your first win, add that to the Martinsville momentum and I will not shy away from putting the 88 back on the team this week.
I will be watching a lot of other B-List drivers in practice, as my B-List will be up for grabs for the most part, with Newman being the only (almost) lock. Juan Pablo Montoya was 3rd in Vegas and had a decent run at Martinsville, although his numbers here at Texas are dismal. MWR was strong at Las Vegas and have been hot/cold here at Texas, so I will at least keep an eye on David Reutimann and Martin Truex Jr. (although I will be very leery of Truex after him putting up great practice numbers and laying an egg in the fall race). Mark Martin also gets consideration based mostly on his past data here, but he'll have to impress big time in practice as he was not good at Las Vegas or California.
C-LIST:
PAUL MENARD (8 Starts Remaining) - C-List is pretty easy for me this week. Going with "the standard" as some are calling it. Menard was great in the spring race before the big wreck and Top 10 in the fall race. Outstanding performances at Las Vegas and California makes it a done deal for me. Only small question is whether he can pull out of the funk he was in at Martinsville.
DAVID RAGAN (8 Starts Remaining) - Easy choice for me with Ragan being the top C-List driver in both races last year. He's the backup if Menard still is stumbling out of Martinsville.
I've only used 1 start with Menard/Ragan, if you've burned through more Menard/Ragan starts then you could reach for Trevor Bayne as a start-save, but I'm pretty down on Bayne right now. He was good at Las Vegas before having troubles, but was absolutely junk at California. He's coming off 3 strait weeks of dismal runs and torn up sheet metal. I started Bayne at California so there is no need for me to use another start-save here.
Check back Thursday night for our Practice 1 breakdown and our lock-in lineup going into the Friday final practice and qualifying. As always, we encourage you to join the discussion on the Forum at http://www.FantasyNascarPreview.com
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