Practice and qualifying is in the books, and here is how we break down the field for tonight's race:
Let's take a look at the numbers first:
P1 Overall Lap Averages:
A-List:
Harvick - 22.42 (47 Laps)
Ky. Busch - 22.45 (64)
Hamlin - 22.47 (65)
Gordon - 22.52 (49)
B-List:
Bowyer - 22.46 (64 Laps)
Martin - 22.47 (68)
Allmendinger - 22.48 (55)
Montoya - 20.50 (57)
Earnhardt Jr. - 20.51 (62)
Logano - 22.51 (74)
Newman - 20.58 (71)
Burton - 20.58 (61)
Ambrose - 22.61 (68)
C-List:
Labonte - 22.52 (59 Laps)
Ragan - 22.61 (82)
Menard - 22.63 (66)
And here are the 10-Lap Averages:
Rank Car# Driver From Lap To Lap Avg Speed
1 78 Regan Smith 2 11 122.368
2 11 Denny Hamlin 3 12 121.937
3 14 Tony Stewart 1 10 121.811
4 47 Bobby Labonte 31 40 121.164
5 56 Martin Truex Jr. 42 51 121.066
6 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 7 16 121.001
7 5 Mark Martin 42 51 120.971
8 42 Juan Pablo Montoya 35 44 120.930
9 16 Greg Biffle 52 61 120.905
10 34 David Gilliland 2 11 120.886
11 6 David Ragan 50 59 120.728
12 27 Paul Menard 10 19 120.450
13 48 Jimmie Johnson 15 24 120.449
14 39 Ryan Newman 40 49 120.358
15 9 Marcos Ambrose 38 47 120.310
16 00 David Reutimann 42 51 120.171
17 22 Kurt Busch 14 23 120.157
18 99 Carl Edwards 28 37 120.147
19 31 Jeff Burton 36 45 120.115
20 2 Brad Keselowski 36 45 120.046
21 83 Brian Vickers 34 43 120.007
22 1 Jamie McMurray 47 56 119.971
23 17 Matt Kenseth 29 38 119.933
24 33 Clint Bowyer 45 54 119.905
25 20 Joey Logano 18 27 119.656
26 24 Jeff Gordon 39 48 118.889
27 43 A J Allmendinger 37 46 118.763
28 32 Ken Schrader 47 56 118.697
29 18 Kyle Busch 49 58 118.472
30 71 Andy Lally # 1 10 117.404
P2 was mostly qualifying runs, but here are the few that mixed in race runs:
A-List:
Harvick - 22.29 (24 Laps)
Ky. Busch - 22.33 (37)
Gordon - 22.43 (44)
Hamlin - 22.65 (59)
B-List:
Earnhardt Jr. - 22.27 (21 Laps)
Martin - 22.30 (25)
Burton - 22.45 (31)
Allmendinger - 22.46 (27)
Logano - 22.51 (45)
C-List:
(All on Q runs only)
And 10-Lap Averages from P2:
1 24 Jeff Gordon 33 42 121.930
2 48 Jimmie Johnson 33 42 121.927
3 4 Kasey Kahne 36 45 121.675
4 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1 10 121.663
5 5 Mark Martin 1 10 121.523
6 17 Matt Kenseth 1 10 121.411
7 29 Kevin Harvick 14 23 121.390
8 18 Kyle Busch 3 12 121.368
9 22 Kurt Busch 17 26 121.356
10 11 Denny Hamlin 26 35 121.162
11 20 Joey Logano 32 41 121.115
12 2 Brad Keselowski 1 10 121.054
13 31 Jeff Burton 5 14 120.318
A-LIST:
Kyle Busch is the no-brainer start here. Don't be concerned about him starting mid pack, he's won from much farther back here before. Busch was happy with the handling and balance of his car. His stats are fantastic here, the JGR brake program is top notch. You should not hesitate to roll out a Kyle Busch start here, he is #1 in the rankings this week.
I'm putting Jeff Gordon in my #2 spot this week. Gordon was great on this tire in Phoenix and also has been talking about how happy he is with the balance of his car, so he's got another potential race winner here tonight. Denny Hamlin has race winning potential as well, and he's got momentum from winning twice already this weekend, but this team has not been able to close the deal yet, so he slides just behind Gordon in my rankings. Kevin Harvick could once again be Mr. Where-did-he-come-from tonight, as his car was fast on the speed charts, but Harvick is not happy with the balance of his race car, and it will take some work on his setup to get to the front of the field. Carl Edwards looks solid and in-line for a Top-10, but I'd save him for the 1.5s where he appears dominate.
A-LIST RANKINGS: 18, 24, 11, 29, 48, 99, 22, rest
B-LIST:
Clint Bowyer is still a lock here, he's the only potential race winner I see out of the B-List. His track record here is phenominal, he's got the most momentum coming into this race than any other driver, and his very happy with his car coming into tonight's race. Start the 33 without any doubts.
Juan Pablo Montoya grabbed the pole and will use the #1 pit stall to his advantage often during tonight's race. He's got a Top 10 ride and should lead laps early for bonus points. JPM grabs the #2 spot in my rankings this week. Ryan Newman had an unusually disappointing qualifying run, but I do think he will be Top 10 potential all night long. Joey Logano is quietly having a solid weekend, he's not that fast but he's consistent without having a lot of fall off over the course of his runs. Dale Earnhardt Jr. confidence has been shaken, not sure how or why but he had it in his head that he was going to suck in qualifying, and he did. If his mindset is still there by race time, then he's a must bench. However I do see Top 15 potential out of him if he gets his head right.
A.J. Allmendinger is the best start-save option out of the B-List, he's Top 15 potential. Won't lead any laps so I still rank him behind 33, 42, 39 for sure. But if you only have 1 of those 3 on your team, A.J. wouldn't be bad to pair with them. Martin Truex Jr. is also posting impressive numbers this weekend, but that's not unusual for Truex to practice good and fall off in the race. I'm not buying Mark Martin yet either, practiced well and says he's happy with his car, but that happens every week, and he continues to fall off each week in the races with poor communication and execution with McGrew on the pit box. Jeff Burton is a little disappointing this week, I barely see Top 15 potential out of him as he has not been able to find speed this weekend.
B-LIST RANKINGS: 33, 42, 39, 20, 88, 43, 4, 56, 31, 5, 9, rest
C-LIST:
Paul Menard, we say it every week, he'll be the class of the C-List once again. If you have him on your team, I'd still be a little borderline on starting him, as again, it's all about finding the races where Menard will crush the rest of the C-List, and I don't think Menard will obliterate the C-List like he does at the bigger tracks, I see Menard as potential Top 15.
I like Bobby Labonte as a start save here, he's got a good starting position and I expect him to stay Top 15-20 all night long. His car was very consistent over the course of a run, probably more consistent than anyone else's car in the field in fact. I think Regan Smith will fall back from his good starting position, but use his good pit selection to be potential Top 20. David Ragan has not impressed me much this weekend, I see him as potential Top 20 only.
C-LIST RANKINGS: 27, 47, 6, 78, 13, rest
We will be hosting our live chat starting at 6:30 PM EST tonight, our chat link can be found RIGHT HERE. We'll see you tonight!
Saturday, April 30, 2011
Friday, April 22, 2011
RICHMOND 1 - Preview
A little advance preview edition of FNG for you to marinate on over your holiday weekend. We're taking a look at the Loop Data, Driver Momentum, and all the interesting stats you crave. Let's get started:
First lets take a look at Loop Data using Richmond 08-10, Loudon 08-10, and Phoenix 08-10 (plus the '11 spring race):
AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION:
A-List:
Johnson - 8th
J. Gordon - 8th
Ky. Busch - 8th
Hamlin - 9th
B-List:
Martin - 11th
Newman - 11th
Bowyer - 13th
Burton - 15th
Montoya - 15th
Reutimann - 16th
Logano - 16th
Ambrose - 16th
C-List:
Ragan - 27th
R. Gordon - 27th
Menard - 28th
Smith - 28th
% of LAPS in the TOP 15:
A-List:
Johnson - 89%
Ky. Busch - 87%
J. Gordon - 83%
Ku. Busch - 82%
B-List:
Newman - 73%
Montoya - 70%
Bowyer - 68%
Martin - 66%
Burton - 64%
Reutimann - 54%
Truex Jr. - 54%
Allmendinger - 46%
C-List:
Ragan - 10%
Smith - 8%
Menard - 8%
Labonte - 3%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Johnson - 112
Ky. Busch - 109
J. Gordon - 109
Hamlin - 108
B-List:
Martin - 96
Bowyer - 94
Montoya - 93
Newman - 92
Montoya - 15th
Reutimann - 16th
Logano - 16th
Ambrose - 16th
C-List:
Ragan - 57
Smith - 56
Menard - 53
R. Gordon - 52
Now let's take a look at just Richmond from 2008-2010, all of the COT races ran there so far:
AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION:
A-List:
Ky. Busch - 4th
J. Gordon - 7th
Hamlin - 9th
Stewart - 11th
B-List:
Bowyer - 9th
Burton - 9th
Martin - 10th
Newman - 12th
Ambrose - 12th
Logano - 13th
Montoya - 17th
Truex Jr. - 19th
C-List:
Ragan - 25th
Labonte - 28th
R. Gordon - 28th
Smith - 28th
% of LAPS in the TOP 15:
A-List:
Hamlin - 93%
Ky. Busch - 90%
Harvick - 89%
Gordon - 75%
B-List:
Bowyer - 81%
Burton - 73%
Newman - 73%
Martin - 69%
Montoya - 60%
Truex Jr. - 60%
Ambrose - 52%
Kahne - 46%
C-List:
Ragan - 12%
Smith - 7%
Labonte - 4%
Menard - 4%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Hamlin - 125
Ky. Busch - 118
J. Gordon - 107
Harvick - 103
B-List:
Bowyer - 101
Martin - 98
Burton - 93
Newman - 91
Truex Jr. - 86
Montoya - 84
Ambrose - 81
Earnhardt Jr. - 81
C-List:
Ragan - 59
Smith - 53
Labonte - 52
Menard - 50
Taking into account the loop data above, driver momentum, heavier weight on Phoenix 2011 performance, a slight look at Martinsville 2011, and considering qualifying performance since starting position is important here at Richmond, we've come up with the following:
A-LIST:
KYLE BUSCH (8 Starts Remaining) - Lock. This is a no brainer. Kyle is outstanding on the short tracks, especially Richmond. Busch also finished 2nd at Phoenix this year and 3rd at Martinsville this year (and 1st at Bristol to boot). It would take a pretty outstanding practice and qualifying run from another competitor to knock Kyle Busch out of starting this week.
DENNY HAMLIN (8 Starts Remaining) - The 2nd B-List spot I've debated between a host of different drivers, but ultimately I landed on Denny Hamlin. Again, I doubt anyone will knock Kyle from the starting spot, so I'm giving Hamlin the best chance at scoring Qualifying points for us. Hamlin has been nothing to write home about this year, and his lack of momentum does worry me. But if he can turn it around, it's going to be here at Richmond. His numbers here are too hard to ignore, but honestly, I'm just hoping for Q points from the 11.
Just missing the 2nd spot in my A-List is Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, and Jimmie Johnson (in that order). Gordon's dominance at Phoeinx this year and his great loop data here just does miss the cut as again, the numbers show Hamlin to be a better qualifier. Harvick has had a great flat track season in 2011 and his numbers here aren't bad either, but he also misses the cut on qualifying performance. I do suspect Johnson will be Top 5 again, but I'm still playing it conservative on Team 48 for now. Carl Edwards has a bullet car in Phoenix 2011 before being wrecked, but I think that was more of a fluke than a reason to bump Edwards above the rest, I'll save the 99 for 1.5s.
B-LIST:
CLINT BOWYER (8 Starts Remaining) - Lock. Bowyer is coming off momentum of two 2nd place finishes in a row, his loop data here leads everyone in the B-List, and his loop data at flat tracks in general also leads almost everyone. This one is a no-brainer.
RYAN NEWMAN (8 Starts Remaining) - Not a lock but an absolute must-have on your team going into the weekend. Newman ranks inside the Top 4 in Loop Data at both Richmond and the flat tracks. Newman was 5th at Phoenix this year and had a Top 10 going at Martinsville before cut tires and mechanical failure dropped him through the field. With qualifying important here at Richmond, The Rocket is in strong contention for another start.
DALE EARNHARDT JR. (7 Starts Remaining) - I'm still riding the Junior-Nation wave, Richmond isn't a bad track for Junebug historically, his loop data is fair here. What puts him over the top is his 10th place performance at Phoenix and 2nd place at Martinsville, coupled with his overall momentum.
A.J. ALLMENDINGER (9 Starts Remaining) - This is my "not for the faint at heart" pick of the week. I'm leaving some good names off my team to go sleeper with the Dinger. A.J. is coming off a 9th in Phoenix and 14th in Martinsville, where he ran inside the Top 10 for a good portion of the race. He was 8th here in the fall last year, 10th and 12th at Loudon in 2010. The 43 has also proved he can step up and be a great qualifier as well. I'm giving Dinger a shot at the big show this week.
I debated on Dale Jr, Juan Pablo Montoya, and Joey Logano for my 3rd B-List spot, ultimately it went to the 88. I've personally used JPM and Logano twice already this year. Montoya's loop data and performance at Martinsville is commendable, but his Phoenix performance wasn't that impressive, plus I like Montoya on some of the 1.5 mile tracks, the bigger flat tracks, and the road courses coming up, so I'm saving my 7 remaining starts with JPM for those tracks. Logano has potential to shine here, could be good for some qualifying points if nothing else. He didn't get a chance to show us what he had at Phoenix and his Martinsville performance was a 15th place effort most of the day. I might be missing the Logano band wagon by a week, but he doesn't make my team.
Another good start save option is Marcos Ambrose. His numbers here last year were fantastic and his name pops up inside the Top 8 on some of our loop data above. However his performance last year was with a different team, and a 16th at Phoenix and a 29th at Martinsville gives my sleeper edge to A.J. this week.
Jeff Burton and Mark Martin appear strong on the Loop Data, as they will for a lot of tracks this year. Burton calls Virginia home and he would love to make another great impression here, but the risk is too high for the potential reward. We've seen Burton have promise going into tracks like Phoenix and Martinsville where he ended as a dud, Burton is not known for being a great qualifier so I don't see how he would bump Bowyer or Newman off my team if he got a spot. Martin has simply not got it together this year with McGrew, and he's still on my avoid list until they can prove something to me on track for the duration of a race.
C-LIST:
BOBBY LABONTE (8 Starts Remaining) - I'll be a little biased saying that I'm looking for an excuse to start Labonte. This is the team that propelled Ambrose to his great runs here last year. 21st at Phoenix (right behind Menard and Mears in 17th/18th as the Top 2 C-Listers), Top 10 at Bristol, and a potential Top 10 run at Martinsville before getting punted by Kurt Busch. The Ragan/Menard duo isn't overly impressive here numbers wise, so this is a good opportunity to use Labonte in one of the few places he could run in the ballpark with the 6 and 27.
DAVID RAGAN (7 Starts Remaining) - Ragan leads all C-Listers in loop data here at Richmond and on the flat tracks, and he is my backup in-case Labonte craps the bed. Ragan got wrecked in Phoenix but had potential to be the Top C-List driver there. Ragan was the lead C-List driver at Martinsville with 8th place finish.
This is a good track to save Paul Menard. As mentioned above, he was the Top C-List driver in 17th, but Labonte was 21st which is a better start value in the long run. Menard was absolutely junk at Martinsville before falling out of the race. Menard's numbers here in the past and on short tracks also do not rank highly against the rest of the C. Regan Smith numbers here aren't bad, but I'm going Labonte for the start-save option over Regan for sure. Don't forget to remove Trevor Bayne from your team if he was on it in Talladega, he is not entered here or for the next 3 cup races.
As always, we encourage to join the conversation over at the Forum at www.FantasyNascarPreview.com. We also welcome any comments here as a reply to the blog!
First lets take a look at Loop Data using Richmond 08-10, Loudon 08-10, and Phoenix 08-10 (plus the '11 spring race):
AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION:
A-List:
Johnson - 8th
J. Gordon - 8th
Ky. Busch - 8th
Hamlin - 9th
B-List:
Martin - 11th
Newman - 11th
Bowyer - 13th
Burton - 15th
Montoya - 15th
Reutimann - 16th
Logano - 16th
Ambrose - 16th
C-List:
Ragan - 27th
R. Gordon - 27th
Menard - 28th
Smith - 28th
% of LAPS in the TOP 15:
A-List:
Johnson - 89%
Ky. Busch - 87%
J. Gordon - 83%
Ku. Busch - 82%
B-List:
Newman - 73%
Montoya - 70%
Bowyer - 68%
Martin - 66%
Burton - 64%
Reutimann - 54%
Truex Jr. - 54%
Allmendinger - 46%
C-List:
Ragan - 10%
Smith - 8%
Menard - 8%
Labonte - 3%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Johnson - 112
Ky. Busch - 109
J. Gordon - 109
Hamlin - 108
B-List:
Martin - 96
Bowyer - 94
Montoya - 93
Newman - 92
Montoya - 15th
Reutimann - 16th
Logano - 16th
Ambrose - 16th
C-List:
Ragan - 57
Smith - 56
Menard - 53
R. Gordon - 52
Now let's take a look at just Richmond from 2008-2010, all of the COT races ran there so far:
AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION:
A-List:
Ky. Busch - 4th
J. Gordon - 7th
Hamlin - 9th
Stewart - 11th
B-List:
Bowyer - 9th
Burton - 9th
Martin - 10th
Newman - 12th
Ambrose - 12th
Logano - 13th
Montoya - 17th
Truex Jr. - 19th
C-List:
Ragan - 25th
Labonte - 28th
R. Gordon - 28th
Smith - 28th
% of LAPS in the TOP 15:
A-List:
Hamlin - 93%
Ky. Busch - 90%
Harvick - 89%
Gordon - 75%
B-List:
Bowyer - 81%
Burton - 73%
Newman - 73%
Martin - 69%
Montoya - 60%
Truex Jr. - 60%
Ambrose - 52%
Kahne - 46%
C-List:
Ragan - 12%
Smith - 7%
Labonte - 4%
Menard - 4%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Hamlin - 125
Ky. Busch - 118
J. Gordon - 107
Harvick - 103
B-List:
Bowyer - 101
Martin - 98
Burton - 93
Newman - 91
Truex Jr. - 86
Montoya - 84
Ambrose - 81
Earnhardt Jr. - 81
C-List:
Ragan - 59
Smith - 53
Labonte - 52
Menard - 50
Taking into account the loop data above, driver momentum, heavier weight on Phoenix 2011 performance, a slight look at Martinsville 2011, and considering qualifying performance since starting position is important here at Richmond, we've come up with the following:
A-LIST:
KYLE BUSCH (8 Starts Remaining) - Lock. This is a no brainer. Kyle is outstanding on the short tracks, especially Richmond. Busch also finished 2nd at Phoenix this year and 3rd at Martinsville this year (and 1st at Bristol to boot). It would take a pretty outstanding practice and qualifying run from another competitor to knock Kyle Busch out of starting this week.
DENNY HAMLIN (8 Starts Remaining) - The 2nd B-List spot I've debated between a host of different drivers, but ultimately I landed on Denny Hamlin. Again, I doubt anyone will knock Kyle from the starting spot, so I'm giving Hamlin the best chance at scoring Qualifying points for us. Hamlin has been nothing to write home about this year, and his lack of momentum does worry me. But if he can turn it around, it's going to be here at Richmond. His numbers here are too hard to ignore, but honestly, I'm just hoping for Q points from the 11.
Just missing the 2nd spot in my A-List is Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, and Jimmie Johnson (in that order). Gordon's dominance at Phoeinx this year and his great loop data here just does miss the cut as again, the numbers show Hamlin to be a better qualifier. Harvick has had a great flat track season in 2011 and his numbers here aren't bad either, but he also misses the cut on qualifying performance. I do suspect Johnson will be Top 5 again, but I'm still playing it conservative on Team 48 for now. Carl Edwards has a bullet car in Phoenix 2011 before being wrecked, but I think that was more of a fluke than a reason to bump Edwards above the rest, I'll save the 99 for 1.5s.
B-LIST:
CLINT BOWYER (8 Starts Remaining) - Lock. Bowyer is coming off momentum of two 2nd place finishes in a row, his loop data here leads everyone in the B-List, and his loop data at flat tracks in general also leads almost everyone. This one is a no-brainer.
RYAN NEWMAN (8 Starts Remaining) - Not a lock but an absolute must-have on your team going into the weekend. Newman ranks inside the Top 4 in Loop Data at both Richmond and the flat tracks. Newman was 5th at Phoenix this year and had a Top 10 going at Martinsville before cut tires and mechanical failure dropped him through the field. With qualifying important here at Richmond, The Rocket is in strong contention for another start.
DALE EARNHARDT JR. (7 Starts Remaining) - I'm still riding the Junior-Nation wave, Richmond isn't a bad track for Junebug historically, his loop data is fair here. What puts him over the top is his 10th place performance at Phoenix and 2nd place at Martinsville, coupled with his overall momentum.
A.J. ALLMENDINGER (9 Starts Remaining) - This is my "not for the faint at heart" pick of the week. I'm leaving some good names off my team to go sleeper with the Dinger. A.J. is coming off a 9th in Phoenix and 14th in Martinsville, where he ran inside the Top 10 for a good portion of the race. He was 8th here in the fall last year, 10th and 12th at Loudon in 2010. The 43 has also proved he can step up and be a great qualifier as well. I'm giving Dinger a shot at the big show this week.
I debated on Dale Jr, Juan Pablo Montoya, and Joey Logano for my 3rd B-List spot, ultimately it went to the 88. I've personally used JPM and Logano twice already this year. Montoya's loop data and performance at Martinsville is commendable, but his Phoenix performance wasn't that impressive, plus I like Montoya on some of the 1.5 mile tracks, the bigger flat tracks, and the road courses coming up, so I'm saving my 7 remaining starts with JPM for those tracks. Logano has potential to shine here, could be good for some qualifying points if nothing else. He didn't get a chance to show us what he had at Phoenix and his Martinsville performance was a 15th place effort most of the day. I might be missing the Logano band wagon by a week, but he doesn't make my team.
Another good start save option is Marcos Ambrose. His numbers here last year were fantastic and his name pops up inside the Top 8 on some of our loop data above. However his performance last year was with a different team, and a 16th at Phoenix and a 29th at Martinsville gives my sleeper edge to A.J. this week.
Jeff Burton and Mark Martin appear strong on the Loop Data, as they will for a lot of tracks this year. Burton calls Virginia home and he would love to make another great impression here, but the risk is too high for the potential reward. We've seen Burton have promise going into tracks like Phoenix and Martinsville where he ended as a dud, Burton is not known for being a great qualifier so I don't see how he would bump Bowyer or Newman off my team if he got a spot. Martin has simply not got it together this year with McGrew, and he's still on my avoid list until they can prove something to me on track for the duration of a race.
C-LIST:
BOBBY LABONTE (8 Starts Remaining) - I'll be a little biased saying that I'm looking for an excuse to start Labonte. This is the team that propelled Ambrose to his great runs here last year. 21st at Phoenix (right behind Menard and Mears in 17th/18th as the Top 2 C-Listers), Top 10 at Bristol, and a potential Top 10 run at Martinsville before getting punted by Kurt Busch. The Ragan/Menard duo isn't overly impressive here numbers wise, so this is a good opportunity to use Labonte in one of the few places he could run in the ballpark with the 6 and 27.
DAVID RAGAN (7 Starts Remaining) - Ragan leads all C-Listers in loop data here at Richmond and on the flat tracks, and he is my backup in-case Labonte craps the bed. Ragan got wrecked in Phoenix but had potential to be the Top C-List driver there. Ragan was the lead C-List driver at Martinsville with 8th place finish.
This is a good track to save Paul Menard. As mentioned above, he was the Top C-List driver in 17th, but Labonte was 21st which is a better start value in the long run. Menard was absolutely junk at Martinsville before falling out of the race. Menard's numbers here in the past and on short tracks also do not rank highly against the rest of the C. Regan Smith numbers here aren't bad, but I'm going Labonte for the start-save option over Regan for sure. Don't forget to remove Trevor Bayne from your team if he was on it in Talladega, he is not entered here or for the next 3 cup races.
As always, we encourage to join the conversation over at the Forum at www.FantasyNascarPreview.com. We also welcome any comments here as a reply to the blog!
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
TALLADEGA 1 - Wrap Up
Talladega is in the books, and for a plate race it actually ended fairly clean. The FNG team rolled out:
Kevin Harvick (8 Starts Remaining before Talladega)
Jeff Burton (7 Starts Remaining before Talladega)
Jamie McMurray (9 Starts Remaining before Talladega)
Regan Smith (7 Starts Remaining before Talladega)
Benching:
Jeff Gordon (9), Juan Pablo Montoya (7), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (7), Bobby Labonte (8)
Obviously the only poor decision I made was benching Earnhardt Jr. but again, he is a pick that I rather not use since 70+% of Yahoo users had him on their team. If Junior were to wreck, you're gaining massive points. When Junior finished 4th, you gain nothing on your competitors. All I lost was about 25 points in starting McMurray over Junior, and only missing out on 25 points is a victory in my book at an unpredictable plate track.
With Harvick 5th, Smith 15th, Burton 16th, and McMurray 21st I netted 254 points, adding in all 4 drivers leading plus 11 qualifying points with Gordon/Junior throws my score up to an incredible 305 points. On a plate track you can be satisfied with anything above 200, and happy with anything over 250, but a 300+ day is the ultimate home run. FNG is now up 3% from last week, up to 85th Percentile in Yahoo overall.
So what did we learn looking forward:
-The Ford FR9 engine was not the dominate force it was in Daytona. This was even evident in the Friday practices. You don't have to buy heavy into the FR9 going into Daytona in July, especially in the B-List.
-Trevor Bayne's crash shows why it is not always a good idea to go with the pack on choices. Much like Junior, he was another driver who a large majority of fans chose him based on his Daytona 500 win. You gained points if you picked basically anyone else on your C-List this week.
-Talladega proves once again why you start save. Guys like David Ragan, Juan Pablo Montoya, Ryan Newman and Kyle Busch will have tremendous value at other tracks, and a start here that ended up with pure bad luck is devastating over multiple weeks when you won't have the ability to start them elsewhere.
We're off this week for easter. We'll compile all the loop data for Richmond next week (and we're back on the regular lockdown schedule of Thursday night in Richmond).
Kevin Harvick (8 Starts Remaining before Talladega)
Jeff Burton (7 Starts Remaining before Talladega)
Jamie McMurray (9 Starts Remaining before Talladega)
Regan Smith (7 Starts Remaining before Talladega)
Benching:
Jeff Gordon (9), Juan Pablo Montoya (7), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (7), Bobby Labonte (8)
Obviously the only poor decision I made was benching Earnhardt Jr. but again, he is a pick that I rather not use since 70+% of Yahoo users had him on their team. If Junior were to wreck, you're gaining massive points. When Junior finished 4th, you gain nothing on your competitors. All I lost was about 25 points in starting McMurray over Junior, and only missing out on 25 points is a victory in my book at an unpredictable plate track.
With Harvick 5th, Smith 15th, Burton 16th, and McMurray 21st I netted 254 points, adding in all 4 drivers leading plus 11 qualifying points with Gordon/Junior throws my score up to an incredible 305 points. On a plate track you can be satisfied with anything above 200, and happy with anything over 250, but a 300+ day is the ultimate home run. FNG is now up 3% from last week, up to 85th Percentile in Yahoo overall.
So what did we learn looking forward:
-The Ford FR9 engine was not the dominate force it was in Daytona. This was even evident in the Friday practices. You don't have to buy heavy into the FR9 going into Daytona in July, especially in the B-List.
-Trevor Bayne's crash shows why it is not always a good idea to go with the pack on choices. Much like Junior, he was another driver who a large majority of fans chose him based on his Daytona 500 win. You gained points if you picked basically anyone else on your C-List this week.
-Talladega proves once again why you start save. Guys like David Ragan, Juan Pablo Montoya, Ryan Newman and Kyle Busch will have tremendous value at other tracks, and a start here that ended up with pure bad luck is devastating over multiple weeks when you won't have the ability to start them elsewhere.
We're off this week for easter. We'll compile all the loop data for Richmond next week (and we're back on the regular lockdown schedule of Thursday night in Richmond).
Saturday, April 16, 2011
TALLADEGA 1 - Lockdown
This week I'll keep the rundown short this week because, well, your guess is as good as mine on who to start. Just a few quick notes from the weekend so far.
Don't be shy to use Kevin Harvick just because of his poor qualifying effort. Qualifying means absolutely nothing, in fact I liked that he took it easy on his Q setup to help preserve the engine. It does make me a touch worried that he lost an ECR engine in the Nationwide race, the crack team over at www.FantasyNascarPreview.com is looking for updates on that situation. Check the live chat tomorrow at 12:00 Noon EST for the latest on that story.
I'm not too high on Jeff Gordon this weekend because of his refusal to adapt to the new communication system that is essential for winning racing. In fact, both Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. also admitted they are limiting their communication, but not as much as Gordon who is all but refusing to talk to anyone besides his team mates.
It does not appear that the Ford FR9 engines are at the distinct advantage that they had in Daytona. So don't feel obligated to start A.J. Allmendinger or Macros Ambrose in the B-Group as neither of them are great plate racers (A.J. even admitted how much he sucked during qualifying).
I'd also lean on start-saving Juan Pablo Montoya, depending on how many times you've used him already. I personally have used him 2 times already, knowing I will almost certainly use him at the 2 road courses leaves only 5 starts for Montoya left for the season, and with his steady performance at both the larger tracks and short tracks this year, he may be worth saving. I'm also not advising a start from Clint Bowyer, Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Paul Menard, or David Ragan.
Everyone and their sister will more than likely start Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Trevor Bayne. I can't argue against either driver, both look like good picks going into the race and both learned from the Nationwide race today. But just remember you probably won't gain anything on your league by using them.
For what it's worth, my rankings going into the race are as follows (minus those I'm not starting):
A-LIST: 29, 22, 14, 24, 17, 16, 11
B-LIST: 31, 1, 88, 39, 5, 00, 2, 83, 4, 56, 43, 9
C-LIST: 21, 78, 34, 47, 09, 15
Save The Chat Link Right Now! Chat is at 12:00 PM (Noon) EST and goes right up to the green flag!
Don't be shy to use Kevin Harvick just because of his poor qualifying effort. Qualifying means absolutely nothing, in fact I liked that he took it easy on his Q setup to help preserve the engine. It does make me a touch worried that he lost an ECR engine in the Nationwide race, the crack team over at www.FantasyNascarPreview.com is looking for updates on that situation. Check the live chat tomorrow at 12:00 Noon EST for the latest on that story.
I'm not too high on Jeff Gordon this weekend because of his refusal to adapt to the new communication system that is essential for winning racing. In fact, both Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. also admitted they are limiting their communication, but not as much as Gordon who is all but refusing to talk to anyone besides his team mates.
It does not appear that the Ford FR9 engines are at the distinct advantage that they had in Daytona. So don't feel obligated to start A.J. Allmendinger or Macros Ambrose in the B-Group as neither of them are great plate racers (A.J. even admitted how much he sucked during qualifying).
I'd also lean on start-saving Juan Pablo Montoya, depending on how many times you've used him already. I personally have used him 2 times already, knowing I will almost certainly use him at the 2 road courses leaves only 5 starts for Montoya left for the season, and with his steady performance at both the larger tracks and short tracks this year, he may be worth saving. I'm also not advising a start from Clint Bowyer, Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Paul Menard, or David Ragan.
Everyone and their sister will more than likely start Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Trevor Bayne. I can't argue against either driver, both look like good picks going into the race and both learned from the Nationwide race today. But just remember you probably won't gain anything on your league by using them.
For what it's worth, my rankings going into the race are as follows (minus those I'm not starting):
A-LIST: 29, 22, 14, 24, 17, 16, 11
B-LIST: 31, 1, 88, 39, 5, 00, 2, 83, 4, 56, 43, 9
C-LIST: 21, 78, 34, 47, 09, 15
Save The Chat Link Right Now! Chat is at 12:00 PM (Noon) EST and goes right up to the green flag!
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
TALLADEGA 1 - Preview
Ah the restrictor plate tracks. Basically, it's a week off for us in NASCAR Fantasy Land followed by a game of blindfolded darts on Sunday that count towards our overall championship total.
Looking through loop data and previous history here is of little importance, much like the practice sessions. In the end there is no telling who will survive the big wreck and who will get out front to lead the most laps, that's all in the hands of the drivers and almost impossible to predict. You will get to see the practice sessions on Friday before you lock down, so this will give you an opportunity if one driver or team looks especially fast on Friday to put them into your lineup.
So for this week, we're going 180 on what we normally do here on the blog. We're going to give you the list of drivers NOT to have in your lineup this weekend.
A-LIST:
Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, and Kyle Busch all must find your bench this weekend. Under no circumstances should you start any of these 3 drivers. The reason being is that out of the entire A-List, these 3 drivers have the best shot of getting 9-starts out of at other tracks. Johnson historically heats up later in the season, Edwards is a stud on the larger tracks this year, and Kyle Busch has always been impressive on the short and flat tracks. Starting Jimmie Johnson here and potentially getting a 30th-something place finish out of him when you could of got a Top 5 out of him elsewhere is fantasy racing suicide.
B-LIST:
Clint Bowyer and Ryan Newman for sure are must-bench this weekend. And although Clint Bowyer will be a tempting pick, don't fall for it. You only have to think back a few days to Texas and his 2nd place finish. The NASCAR schedule is riddled with 1.5 mile tracks where you will have more than enough opportunities to get starts out of Bowyer. Newman has been impressive on the short and flat tracks over the years, and minus an off weekend at Texas, he's been stout on the larger tracks as well. These are the 2 guys I have pegged as for-sure 9-starters this season and they will not be on my team come Sunday.
In the B-List there is a 2nd-tier of drivers who are borderline on making the "do not start" list. These names include Juan Pablo Montoya and Joey Logano. JPM is really becoming more consistent and learning to not overdrive his race car into trouble, and he could end up being a 7-9 start guy this year. Even though Logano is having some of the worst luck in recent history, I do believe he will eventually break through a be a Top 10 contender, again being another 7-9 start guy.
C-LIST:
This is obvious as Paul Menard and David Ragan are huge red flashing lights on the "do not start" list. Both of these drivers will be much like Bowyer this weekend, tempting, but if you start them I will drive to you house and whack you on the head with a large stick. Both of these drivers are much better than the rest of the C-List competitors on almost all of the other tracks on the schedule, you simply can not risk using Menard or Ragan and having one of them end up in the fence.
Two other names that I am not big on this week are Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Trevor Bayne. Every Joe-Bob and Betty-Sue out there is going to have these 2 names etched in stone on their fantasy teams, which I don't like. If you start these 2 drivers with everyone else, you're in a no-win situation. They crash out, you lose points with 90% of the Yahoo League. They do well, you gain 0 ground on anyone else. This is the perfect opportunity to gain on the rest of your league by going off the beaten path.
With Junior being decent on the short tracks, and his 1.5 mile program improving, you can actually get value out of Junior elsewhere on the schedule. I'm not saying he's must-bench, but unless he's showing some dominance on Friday in practice, he will not be on my team come Sunday. Trevor Bayne had a great car at Daytona, but can he stay out of trouble at Talladega? History says absolutely not.
So, who do I like this week...
A-LIST RANKS: 29, 17, 14, 22, 16, 11
I am not worried about ECR engines this time around. Yes it bit us in the butt at Daytona but the team says they have the problem figured out, and I believe them. With all the changes they threw at the teams, almost on a daily basis, it was no surprise that there were failures. Harvick is a plate-track master and I like his chances on Sunday. I'm big on the Ford FR9 engines as well, I think they will once again shine and push guys to the front of the field. I like the momentum and the even-keeled temper of Matt Kenseth this week. Tony Stewart has been another great selection a plate tracks, but his performance at Daytona was dismal due to cooling issues. Kurt Busch had a sporty Dodge in Daytona, but this team has no momentum, bad communication, and I don't trust Kurt Busch to be even-tempered enough to stay out of trouble.
B-LIST RANKS: 1, 31, 43, 5, 9, 56, 00, 2, 4, 83...ect.
See above on the ECR and FR9 engines. McMurray and Burton were strong here before getting into crashes in the fall race and were strong at Daytona as well. Dinger is a pretty steady plate racer, and again, I like his Ford FR9 engine under the hood. Mark Martin gets consideration because he knows how to play it smart and stay out of trouble
C-LIST RANKS: 78, 47, 15, 34, 09
Broken record? See above for ECR engines under Regan's hood. Bobby Labonte has always been a decent pick on the plate tracks for his ability to stay out of trouble, his Daytona performance proved this once again. It's a pretty big drop off from there, I'm not big on Michael Waltrip and his part time team, likewise with David Gilliland, even with his FR9 engine I don't trust either the 15 or the 34 teams to provide fast pit stops all day (as there are many more pit stops with the smaller fuel cells). Landon Cassill remains in the 09, and even though James Finch has a good plate program, Cassill just doesn't have the experience.
For our team, we're going way out on a limb and letting the fantasy God's pick our team for us. Minus the guys who were on the do-not-start list, and the C-List which we chose since the fall off is so large, we put the rest of the A & B-List names in a hat and drew, this was the result:
A-LIST:
Kurt Busch (9 Starts Remaining)
Kevin Harvick (8 Starts Remaining)
B-LIST:
A.J. Allmendinger (9 Starts Remaining)
Marcos Ambrose (9 Starts Remaining)
Kasey Kahne (8 Starts Remaining)
Martin Truex Jr. (8 Starts Remaining)
C-LIST:
Bobby Labonte (8 Starts Remaining)
Regan Smith (7 Starts Remaining)
Now I still hold the right to change these drivers out after Friday practice, but I'm going to do my best to let this time around be up to the higher powers and leave the teams alone.
Check back on Friday for our practice breakdown and our final lock-in team.
Looking through loop data and previous history here is of little importance, much like the practice sessions. In the end there is no telling who will survive the big wreck and who will get out front to lead the most laps, that's all in the hands of the drivers and almost impossible to predict. You will get to see the practice sessions on Friday before you lock down, so this will give you an opportunity if one driver or team looks especially fast on Friday to put them into your lineup.
So for this week, we're going 180 on what we normally do here on the blog. We're going to give you the list of drivers NOT to have in your lineup this weekend.
A-LIST:
Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, and Kyle Busch all must find your bench this weekend. Under no circumstances should you start any of these 3 drivers. The reason being is that out of the entire A-List, these 3 drivers have the best shot of getting 9-starts out of at other tracks. Johnson historically heats up later in the season, Edwards is a stud on the larger tracks this year, and Kyle Busch has always been impressive on the short and flat tracks. Starting Jimmie Johnson here and potentially getting a 30th-something place finish out of him when you could of got a Top 5 out of him elsewhere is fantasy racing suicide.
B-LIST:
Clint Bowyer and Ryan Newman for sure are must-bench this weekend. And although Clint Bowyer will be a tempting pick, don't fall for it. You only have to think back a few days to Texas and his 2nd place finish. The NASCAR schedule is riddled with 1.5 mile tracks where you will have more than enough opportunities to get starts out of Bowyer. Newman has been impressive on the short and flat tracks over the years, and minus an off weekend at Texas, he's been stout on the larger tracks as well. These are the 2 guys I have pegged as for-sure 9-starters this season and they will not be on my team come Sunday.
In the B-List there is a 2nd-tier of drivers who are borderline on making the "do not start" list. These names include Juan Pablo Montoya and Joey Logano. JPM is really becoming more consistent and learning to not overdrive his race car into trouble, and he could end up being a 7-9 start guy this year. Even though Logano is having some of the worst luck in recent history, I do believe he will eventually break through a be a Top 10 contender, again being another 7-9 start guy.
C-LIST:
This is obvious as Paul Menard and David Ragan are huge red flashing lights on the "do not start" list. Both of these drivers will be much like Bowyer this weekend, tempting, but if you start them I will drive to you house and whack you on the head with a large stick. Both of these drivers are much better than the rest of the C-List competitors on almost all of the other tracks on the schedule, you simply can not risk using Menard or Ragan and having one of them end up in the fence.
Two other names that I am not big on this week are Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Trevor Bayne. Every Joe-Bob and Betty-Sue out there is going to have these 2 names etched in stone on their fantasy teams, which I don't like. If you start these 2 drivers with everyone else, you're in a no-win situation. They crash out, you lose points with 90% of the Yahoo League. They do well, you gain 0 ground on anyone else. This is the perfect opportunity to gain on the rest of your league by going off the beaten path.
With Junior being decent on the short tracks, and his 1.5 mile program improving, you can actually get value out of Junior elsewhere on the schedule. I'm not saying he's must-bench, but unless he's showing some dominance on Friday in practice, he will not be on my team come Sunday. Trevor Bayne had a great car at Daytona, but can he stay out of trouble at Talladega? History says absolutely not.
So, who do I like this week...
A-LIST RANKS: 29, 17, 14, 22, 16, 11
I am not worried about ECR engines this time around. Yes it bit us in the butt at Daytona but the team says they have the problem figured out, and I believe them. With all the changes they threw at the teams, almost on a daily basis, it was no surprise that there were failures. Harvick is a plate-track master and I like his chances on Sunday. I'm big on the Ford FR9 engines as well, I think they will once again shine and push guys to the front of the field. I like the momentum and the even-keeled temper of Matt Kenseth this week. Tony Stewart has been another great selection a plate tracks, but his performance at Daytona was dismal due to cooling issues. Kurt Busch had a sporty Dodge in Daytona, but this team has no momentum, bad communication, and I don't trust Kurt Busch to be even-tempered enough to stay out of trouble.
B-LIST RANKS: 1, 31, 43, 5, 9, 56, 00, 2, 4, 83...ect.
See above on the ECR and FR9 engines. McMurray and Burton were strong here before getting into crashes in the fall race and were strong at Daytona as well. Dinger is a pretty steady plate racer, and again, I like his Ford FR9 engine under the hood. Mark Martin gets consideration because he knows how to play it smart and stay out of trouble
C-LIST RANKS: 78, 47, 15, 34, 09
Broken record? See above for ECR engines under Regan's hood. Bobby Labonte has always been a decent pick on the plate tracks for his ability to stay out of trouble, his Daytona performance proved this once again. It's a pretty big drop off from there, I'm not big on Michael Waltrip and his part time team, likewise with David Gilliland, even with his FR9 engine I don't trust either the 15 or the 34 teams to provide fast pit stops all day (as there are many more pit stops with the smaller fuel cells). Landon Cassill remains in the 09, and even though James Finch has a good plate program, Cassill just doesn't have the experience.
For our team, we're going way out on a limb and letting the fantasy God's pick our team for us. Minus the guys who were on the do-not-start list, and the C-List which we chose since the fall off is so large, we put the rest of the A & B-List names in a hat and drew, this was the result:
A-LIST:
Kurt Busch (9 Starts Remaining)
Kevin Harvick (8 Starts Remaining)
B-LIST:
A.J. Allmendinger (9 Starts Remaining)
Marcos Ambrose (9 Starts Remaining)
Kasey Kahne (8 Starts Remaining)
Martin Truex Jr. (8 Starts Remaining)
C-LIST:
Bobby Labonte (8 Starts Remaining)
Regan Smith (7 Starts Remaining)
Now I still hold the right to change these drivers out after Friday practice, but I'm going to do my best to let this time around be up to the higher powers and leave the teams alone.
Check back on Friday for our practice breakdown and our final lock-in team.
Monday, April 11, 2011
TEXAS 1 - Wrap Up
Just may have been the race of the season for Team FNG. After hearing some crew chief notes and drivers interviews with Ryan Newman, and hearing how he and the team were not satisfied with the car going into the race. We decided to pull him from our posted lineup and slide Dale Earnhardt Jr. in for his 2nd start of the year. Obviously the move worked out well in our favor, Newman struggled all night and Junior not only improved on his car but Steve Letarte kept up with changing track conditions to keep the 88 inside the Top 10. I'm not saying Junior is a 9-start guy, but he's finally going to have value at places not named Daytona and Talladega.
Everyone knew coming in that Matt Kenseth would be a safe pick, but I don't think anyone pegged him to be the dominant pick. It was a very rare showing by Kenseth who just had the field covered from the drop of the green flag, snapping a 70+ race winless streak. We went with Carl Edwards who was the 2nd best A-Lister and led a lap, so no complaints burning another 99 start there. Surprises for me included Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch not being a bigger factor in the race, although they will have start value at the 1.5 mile tracks down the line. Denny Hamlin is stuck in 1st gear this season, something we predicted in the pre-season as he has never overcome the trust issues with crew chief Mike Ford after blowing the championship at Phoenix last season.
In the B-List Clint Bowyer was very impressive and proved himself once again to be a 9-start stud this season. Juan Pablo Montoya is another guy who may not be a potential race winner, but he's becoming much more consistent and is landing a lot of Top 10-15 place runs, which is all you can ask for out of the B-List, Top 5s are just gravy.
Some have said there is absolutely no value in Marcos Ambrose other than the road courses. 4th at Texas and 6th at Las Vegas begs to differ. What really impressed me was this team was able to keep up with changing track conditions from dusk into night, no easy task. Ambrose is going to have to get some consideration moving forward at the 1.5 milers.
Conversely our "miss of the week" was Red Bull Racing. We mentioned Kasey Kahne was very hit or miss at the 1.5 mile tracks, we thought he would hit, and boy did he miss. Both Kahne and Vickers were terrible all night, so much so that a damage Logano, Labonte, and Mears all out performed Vickers. This team simply could not keep up with changing track conditions.
The newest king of the "Toxic Pool" in the B-List is Mark Martin. He may make the team at Talladega, but beyond that there is absolutely no reason to start Martin at this point. The communication between Martin and McGrew is non-exsistant. Fantasy Nascar Preview Forum member "Talt" provided this insight listening to Martin's radio chatter Saturday night:
" Pit crew changed his car and made it a 5 tenths faster but was restricted to a single line. He whines about it and says after small argument, "Just put it back. I'd rather have options and drive slow". So the did and he was junk. Next pit they changed him on a compromise and didn't tell him what they did and he starts passing cars. They tell him his time and he says "What did you do to it". They tell him what they did as he running same times as leader and immediately loses 2 tenths a lap."
Although Martin has de-throned Jeff Burton in the land of do-not-start, I'm not totally convinced Burton is out of the woods yet. The team was consistent enough to put together an 11th place run, and I do like that slight bit of confidence coming into Talladega. If they can survive the plate track with the finish they deserve, then we might consider rolling out Burton starts again.
In the C-List both David Ragan and Paul Menard proved there should be no one else to consider besides these two on the 1.5 mile tracks. We went with Ragan and it paid off in spades as he collected more points than Menard thanks to Ragan leading laps early.
Depending on his remaining schedule, Trevor Bayne could be a good start-save late in the season once you burn through Ragan/Menard starts. If Bayne can stay out of trouble he does have the ability to be Top 20 material. On the flip side Regan Smith continues to disappoint, as he didn't look any better than Bobby Labonte or Casey Mears in his performance before being collected in the big wreck.
Our team this week was Edwards, Earnhardt Jr., Montoya, and Ragan, with everyone put JPM leading and 15 bonus points in qualifying nabbing us 349 points for the weekend. This moved us up 24% in the Yahoo overall rankings up to the 82nd Percentile.
Everyone knew coming in that Matt Kenseth would be a safe pick, but I don't think anyone pegged him to be the dominant pick. It was a very rare showing by Kenseth who just had the field covered from the drop of the green flag, snapping a 70+ race winless streak. We went with Carl Edwards who was the 2nd best A-Lister and led a lap, so no complaints burning another 99 start there. Surprises for me included Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch not being a bigger factor in the race, although they will have start value at the 1.5 mile tracks down the line. Denny Hamlin is stuck in 1st gear this season, something we predicted in the pre-season as he has never overcome the trust issues with crew chief Mike Ford after blowing the championship at Phoenix last season.
In the B-List Clint Bowyer was very impressive and proved himself once again to be a 9-start stud this season. Juan Pablo Montoya is another guy who may not be a potential race winner, but he's becoming much more consistent and is landing a lot of Top 10-15 place runs, which is all you can ask for out of the B-List, Top 5s are just gravy.
Some have said there is absolutely no value in Marcos Ambrose other than the road courses. 4th at Texas and 6th at Las Vegas begs to differ. What really impressed me was this team was able to keep up with changing track conditions from dusk into night, no easy task. Ambrose is going to have to get some consideration moving forward at the 1.5 milers.
Conversely our "miss of the week" was Red Bull Racing. We mentioned Kasey Kahne was very hit or miss at the 1.5 mile tracks, we thought he would hit, and boy did he miss. Both Kahne and Vickers were terrible all night, so much so that a damage Logano, Labonte, and Mears all out performed Vickers. This team simply could not keep up with changing track conditions.
The newest king of the "Toxic Pool" in the B-List is Mark Martin. He may make the team at Talladega, but beyond that there is absolutely no reason to start Martin at this point. The communication between Martin and McGrew is non-exsistant. Fantasy Nascar Preview Forum member "Talt" provided this insight listening to Martin's radio chatter Saturday night:
" Pit crew changed his car and made it a 5 tenths faster but was restricted to a single line. He whines about it and says after small argument, "Just put it back. I'd rather have options and drive slow". So the did and he was junk. Next pit they changed him on a compromise and didn't tell him what they did and he starts passing cars. They tell him his time and he says "What did you do to it". They tell him what they did as he running same times as leader and immediately loses 2 tenths a lap."
Although Martin has de-throned Jeff Burton in the land of do-not-start, I'm not totally convinced Burton is out of the woods yet. The team was consistent enough to put together an 11th place run, and I do like that slight bit of confidence coming into Talladega. If they can survive the plate track with the finish they deserve, then we might consider rolling out Burton starts again.
In the C-List both David Ragan and Paul Menard proved there should be no one else to consider besides these two on the 1.5 mile tracks. We went with Ragan and it paid off in spades as he collected more points than Menard thanks to Ragan leading laps early.
Depending on his remaining schedule, Trevor Bayne could be a good start-save late in the season once you burn through Ragan/Menard starts. If Bayne can stay out of trouble he does have the ability to be Top 20 material. On the flip side Regan Smith continues to disappoint, as he didn't look any better than Bobby Labonte or Casey Mears in his performance before being collected in the big wreck.
Our team this week was Edwards, Earnhardt Jr., Montoya, and Ragan, with everyone put JPM leading and 15 bonus points in qualifying nabbing us 349 points for the weekend. This moved us up 24% in the Yahoo overall rankings up to the 82nd Percentile.
Saturday, April 9, 2011
TEXAS 1 - Lockdown Lineup
With practices in the day and the race at night, the numbers don't mean much from the time sheets. Instead we will go with qualifying results (as track position and pit selection is surprisingly important here) and past performance:
First lets take a look at the pit selection:
A-LIST:
Hard to argue against Carl Edwards this week. If you had to pick a winner you would think it would be Cousin Carl. He adjusts his car well as the track changes from dusk to night, and he'll be in the hunt to lead the most laps as well if he can keep a handle on the car early in the race. Edwards also has an easy in/out with his pit selection.
Jimmie Johnson should be good for a Top 5, but you already knew that. Rank Matt Kenseth as another that should be Top 5 at the end of the day, ahead of Greg Biffle who had a dismal qualifying performance. Kevin Harvick says he's happy with his car and coming off of momentum he might be a sleeper to go 3-strait. Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin look decent, but with better A-List options available I'd bench them this week and see how their engine reliability goes. Tony Stewart seems to have a "stable" car, but not overly fast. He's starting deep in the field but I still think he can make a run to the front by the end of the night.
A-LIST RANKS: 99-48-17-18-29-14-11-16-24-22
B-LIST:
The B-List was a disappointment across the board after qualifying. It's a heavy mix of guys starting up front that I'm not confident they can stay there, and guys starting deep who could make a charge through the field.
Clint Bowyer and Ryan Newman should be solid starts and they both have an easy in/out on their pit selection, but I would not roll out both of them if you've got them available. There are deeper options this week that could get you equal value. Kasey Kahne is hit or miss on these 1.5 mile tracks, this weekend he looks hit and I would not be afraid to roll out another 4 start. Kahne also has lappers on either side of him for an easy in/out on pit selection.
Juan Pablo Montoya starts deep but is one of my picks of someone who should stay ahead of the track and move up into the Top 15. I'm not as confident in Dale Earnhardt Jr. moving up from his deeper starting position. He could get there but it won't be until late in the race, and one small hickup on a pit stop would bury Junior.
Sleepers include Richard Petty Motorsports A.J. Allmendinger and Marcos Ambrose. The RPM cars were good at Vegas and weren't too bad at Texas last year with their respective drivers, both of them could be around the Top 15 by the end of the day. David Reutimann and Brian Vickers could come from their deeper starting positions and I have them more towards a Top 20 finish.
I'm staying away from Mark Martin and Jeff Burton. I don't think Martin is going to progress much from his 21st starting position, and I think Burton will fall from his 12th starting position. Stay away from Martin Truex Jr. starting deep in the field as well.
B-LIST RANKS: 33-4-39-42-20-43-1-9-00-83-5-31-56
C-LIST:
I'm going to go ahead and predict that Paul Menard will finish ahead of David Ragan, but again you can't start Menard 36 times and its all about finding value in the other guys who will be in Menard's ball park. With Ragan having potential to lead the first lap, that's 10 bonus points he could grab that Menard probably won't get, or 5 positions. I don't see Menard finishing much more than 5 positions ahead of Ragan by the end of the day, so I'm putting Ragan in my lineup.
Regan Smith is another guy who could sneak a Top 15-20 finish out of his day, as he's shown promise on 1.5 mile tracks in the past. Trevor Bayne has a good starting position but I think he will fade and only be around a 25th place car. Bobby Labonte and the rest are too far off to even get consideration.
C-LIST RANKS: 6-27-78-21
FNG TEXAS LOCKDOWN LINEUP:
Carl Edwards (7 Starts Remaining)
Ryan Newman (8 Starts Remaining)
Juan Pablo Montoya (8 Starts Remaining)
David Ragan (8 Starts Remaining)
Bench:
Tony Stewart (8 Starts Remaining)
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (8 Starts Remaining)
Brian Vickers (9 Starts Remaining)
Paul Menard (8 Starts Remaining)
Our live chat will start at 6:30 PM EST and go right up through the green flag, you can check out the chat right here: http://zippychat.com/room/3922 We will also be posting this link on the Yahoo Message Board.
First lets take a look at the pit selection:
A-LIST:
Hard to argue against Carl Edwards this week. If you had to pick a winner you would think it would be Cousin Carl. He adjusts his car well as the track changes from dusk to night, and he'll be in the hunt to lead the most laps as well if he can keep a handle on the car early in the race. Edwards also has an easy in/out with his pit selection.
Jimmie Johnson should be good for a Top 5, but you already knew that. Rank Matt Kenseth as another that should be Top 5 at the end of the day, ahead of Greg Biffle who had a dismal qualifying performance. Kevin Harvick says he's happy with his car and coming off of momentum he might be a sleeper to go 3-strait. Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin look decent, but with better A-List options available I'd bench them this week and see how their engine reliability goes. Tony Stewart seems to have a "stable" car, but not overly fast. He's starting deep in the field but I still think he can make a run to the front by the end of the night.
A-LIST RANKS: 99-48-17-18-29-14-11-16-24-22
B-LIST:
The B-List was a disappointment across the board after qualifying. It's a heavy mix of guys starting up front that I'm not confident they can stay there, and guys starting deep who could make a charge through the field.
Clint Bowyer and Ryan Newman should be solid starts and they both have an easy in/out on their pit selection, but I would not roll out both of them if you've got them available. There are deeper options this week that could get you equal value. Kasey Kahne is hit or miss on these 1.5 mile tracks, this weekend he looks hit and I would not be afraid to roll out another 4 start. Kahne also has lappers on either side of him for an easy in/out on pit selection.
Juan Pablo Montoya starts deep but is one of my picks of someone who should stay ahead of the track and move up into the Top 15. I'm not as confident in Dale Earnhardt Jr. moving up from his deeper starting position. He could get there but it won't be until late in the race, and one small hickup on a pit stop would bury Junior.
Sleepers include Richard Petty Motorsports A.J. Allmendinger and Marcos Ambrose. The RPM cars were good at Vegas and weren't too bad at Texas last year with their respective drivers, both of them could be around the Top 15 by the end of the day. David Reutimann and Brian Vickers could come from their deeper starting positions and I have them more towards a Top 20 finish.
I'm staying away from Mark Martin and Jeff Burton. I don't think Martin is going to progress much from his 21st starting position, and I think Burton will fall from his 12th starting position. Stay away from Martin Truex Jr. starting deep in the field as well.
B-LIST RANKS: 33-4-39-42-20-43-1-9-00-83-5-31-56
C-LIST:
I'm going to go ahead and predict that Paul Menard will finish ahead of David Ragan, but again you can't start Menard 36 times and its all about finding value in the other guys who will be in Menard's ball park. With Ragan having potential to lead the first lap, that's 10 bonus points he could grab that Menard probably won't get, or 5 positions. I don't see Menard finishing much more than 5 positions ahead of Ragan by the end of the day, so I'm putting Ragan in my lineup.
Regan Smith is another guy who could sneak a Top 15-20 finish out of his day, as he's shown promise on 1.5 mile tracks in the past. Trevor Bayne has a good starting position but I think he will fade and only be around a 25th place car. Bobby Labonte and the rest are too far off to even get consideration.
C-LIST RANKS: 6-27-78-21
FNG TEXAS LOCKDOWN LINEUP:
Carl Edwards (7 Starts Remaining)
Ryan Newman (8 Starts Remaining)
Juan Pablo Montoya (8 Starts Remaining)
David Ragan (8 Starts Remaining)
Bench:
Tony Stewart (8 Starts Remaining)
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (8 Starts Remaining)
Brian Vickers (9 Starts Remaining)
Paul Menard (8 Starts Remaining)
Our live chat will start at 6:30 PM EST and go right up through the green flag, you can check out the chat right here: http://zippychat.com/room/3922 We will also be posting this link on the Yahoo Message Board.
Thursday, April 7, 2011
TEXAS 1 - Lock-in Lineup
The more we see, the less we know. That was the theme in practice today. As we get with some of the night races, track conditions today were not even close to what they will be under the lights, therefore a lot of teams were "experimenting" the entire session, and just trying to "get in the ballpark" instead of nailing down an exact setup.
The numbers today were all over the map, with guys switching back and forth between race and qualifying trim. Here are the only numbers that are halfway worth looking at after P1, the 10-lap averages:
So we're keeping our team fairly close to what we had going into today's practice:
A-LIST:
CARL EDWARDS (7 Starts Remaining) - The 99 has been solid on the larger tracks so far. He won the last race held on this right side tire (Homestead), and this team has been good with keeping up with changing track conditions like they will see on Saturday night. Edwards makes the team for me this week.
TONY STEWART (8 Starts Remaining) - One of the very few cars today I really liked was Tony Stewart. He made a lot of long green flag runs, and he was pretty decent on sporty tires. If they can make the right calls in the pits, they should be in race winning contention. They've brought one of their best chassis to this event, and Stewart is also a threat for the pole. The 14 gets the 2nd spot on my A-List this week.
Shame Jimmie Johnson worked almost exclusively on qualifying setup, so we don't know exactly what he's got (although one would have to assume Top 5 car). Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin were good, and at best you could put them on par with Stewart/Edwards. I was expecting a little more out of JGR cars, so as I said earlier, if I see 2 A-List drivers who look better, I'll use the "I'm afraid of JGR engine reliability" excuse as the tie breaker, so 18 and 11 are out. Both Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick were not that pleased with their setups and I can't have confidence in either one to be a race winner.
B-LIST:
The B-List is open to interpretation, no one really stood out in the B-List today, so I'm sticking with what I had coming into this week, see the previous post for explination on each driver:
RYAN NEWMAN (8 Starts Remaining)
JUAN PABLO MONTOYA (8 Starts Remaining)
DALE EARNHARDT JR. (8 Starts Remaining)
BRIAN VICKERS (9 Starts Remaining)
I like Newman and Vickers on their previous larger track results so far. Montoya and McMurray both look decent and good nab qualifying points. Junior gets on the team by momentum.
Mark Martin and Jeff Burton both looked alright in practice, but I'm not falling for it on either one of them. They have to show me some performance on these larger tracks to get a spot on the team for the future 1.5 milers. Martin Truex Jr. could be another start-save, but I'm rolling the dice on Vickers for my start-save, although Truex Jr. did say the car improved by the end of the session. Clint Bowyer was "getting in the ball park" so I'm not risking a start on Bowyer if they end up missing the setup.
C-LIST:
More of the same here:
DAVID RAGAN (8 Starts Remaining)
PAUL MENARD (8 Starts Remaining)
No one else to really consider here. You could get a start save out of Trevor Bayne but he's not up to par with the 6 or 27 this week, and you could hold onto Bayne and possibly get better value out of him elsewhere. If you do want to give a spot to Bayne, I'd actually bump Menard off since his car was "miserable" early but did improve later in the session.
The numbers today were all over the map, with guys switching back and forth between race and qualifying trim. Here are the only numbers that are halfway worth looking at after P1, the 10-lap averages:
| Rank | Car# | Driver | From Lap | To Lap | Avg Speed |
| 1 | 99 | Carl Edwards | 29 | 38 | 179.901 |
| 2 | 14 | Tony Stewart | 1 | 10 | 179.817 |
| 3 | 27 | Paul Menard | 1 | 10 | 179.040 |
| 4 | 24 | Jeff Gordon | 48 | 57 | 177.253 |
| 5 | 2 | Brad Keselowski | 10 | 19 | 176.309 |
| 6 | 33 | Clint Bowyer | 18 | 27 | 176.188 |
| 7 | 95 | David Starr(i) | 12 | 21 | 175.440 |
So we're keeping our team fairly close to what we had going into today's practice:
A-LIST:
CARL EDWARDS (7 Starts Remaining) - The 99 has been solid on the larger tracks so far. He won the last race held on this right side tire (Homestead), and this team has been good with keeping up with changing track conditions like they will see on Saturday night. Edwards makes the team for me this week.
TONY STEWART (8 Starts Remaining) - One of the very few cars today I really liked was Tony Stewart. He made a lot of long green flag runs, and he was pretty decent on sporty tires. If they can make the right calls in the pits, they should be in race winning contention. They've brought one of their best chassis to this event, and Stewart is also a threat for the pole. The 14 gets the 2nd spot on my A-List this week.
Shame Jimmie Johnson worked almost exclusively on qualifying setup, so we don't know exactly what he's got (although one would have to assume Top 5 car). Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin were good, and at best you could put them on par with Stewart/Edwards. I was expecting a little more out of JGR cars, so as I said earlier, if I see 2 A-List drivers who look better, I'll use the "I'm afraid of JGR engine reliability" excuse as the tie breaker, so 18 and 11 are out. Both Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick were not that pleased with their setups and I can't have confidence in either one to be a race winner.
B-LIST:
The B-List is open to interpretation, no one really stood out in the B-List today, so I'm sticking with what I had coming into this week, see the previous post for explination on each driver:
RYAN NEWMAN (8 Starts Remaining)
JUAN PABLO MONTOYA (8 Starts Remaining)
DALE EARNHARDT JR. (8 Starts Remaining)
BRIAN VICKERS (9 Starts Remaining)
I like Newman and Vickers on their previous larger track results so far. Montoya and McMurray both look decent and good nab qualifying points. Junior gets on the team by momentum.
Mark Martin and Jeff Burton both looked alright in practice, but I'm not falling for it on either one of them. They have to show me some performance on these larger tracks to get a spot on the team for the future 1.5 milers. Martin Truex Jr. could be another start-save, but I'm rolling the dice on Vickers for my start-save, although Truex Jr. did say the car improved by the end of the session. Clint Bowyer was "getting in the ball park" so I'm not risking a start on Bowyer if they end up missing the setup.
C-LIST:
More of the same here:
DAVID RAGAN (8 Starts Remaining)
PAUL MENARD (8 Starts Remaining)
No one else to really consider here. You could get a start save out of Trevor Bayne but he's not up to par with the 6 or 27 this week, and you could hold onto Bayne and possibly get better value out of him elsewhere. If you do want to give a spot to Bayne, I'd actually bump Menard off since his car was "miserable" early but did improve later in the session.
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
TEXAS 1 - Data
Back to the 1.5 miler this week in Texas, under the lights. This week we're looking at Loop Data from 2008-2010 on Atlanta, Charlotte, and Texas. Loop Data from 2008-2010 of only Texas, plus focusing in on the 2010 results, performance at Las Vegas/California, and momentum coming off of Martinsville.
*Important to remember, we get to see 1 practice session late Thursday afternoon before we have to lock-in our lineup Thursday night. This will also be the ONLY practice session that will be broadcast on TV. There will be a 2nd/Final session on Friday afternoon that will NOT be broadcast. Qualifying will be after the 2nd/Final session.
First the Loop Data, 2008-2010 from Atlanta, Charlotte, and Texas combined:
AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION:
A-List:
Ky. Busch - 9th
Kenseth - 10th
Johnson - 13th
Gordon - 13th
B-List:
Martin - 14th
Burton - 15th
Newman - 15th
Kahne - 16th
Bowyer - 16th
McMurray - 19th
Reutimann - 19th
Vickers - 19th
C-List:
Bayne - 16th*
Ragan - 19th
Menard - 23rd
Labonte 25th
* only 1 start at Texas, compared to a maximum of 18 from other drivers.
% LAPS in the TOP 15:
A-List:
Ky. Busch - 78%
Johnson - 77%
Hamlin - 71%
Stewart - 69%
B-List:
Kahne - 63%
Truex Jr - 60%
Burton - 58%
Bowyer - 58%
Martin - 58%
Reutimann - 56%
Earnhardt Jr - 54%
Montoya - 54%
C-List:
Ragan - 38%
Menard - 25%
Labonte - 10%
Bayne - 4%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Ky. Busch - 110
Johnson - 101
Hamlin - 98
Gordon - 96
B-List:
Kahne - 91
Martin - 85
Bowyer - 85
Reutimann - 85
Burton - 84
Earnhardt Jr - 82
Truex Jr - 82
Vickers - 82
C-List:
Ragan - 75
Bayne - 65*
Menard - 65
Labonte 54
* only 1 start at Texas, compared to a maximum of 18 from other drivers.
Now taking a look at 2008-2010 Texas only:
AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION:
A-List:
Hamlin - 6th
Kenseth - 8th
Johnson - 11th
Harvick - 11th
B-List:
Martin - 7th
Bowyer - 14th
Burton - 14th
Newman - 15th
Earnhardt Jr - 18th
Allmendinger - 19th
McMurray - 20th
Kahne - 20th
C-List:
Bayne - 17th*
Ragan - 17th
Menard - 21st
Smith - 29th
* only 1 start at Texas, compared to a maximum of 18 from other drivers.
% LAPS in the TOP 15:
A-List:
Biffle - 89%
Edwards - 85%
Stewart - 77%
Kenseth - 76%
B-List:
Reutimann - 74%
Earnhardt Jr - 69%
Martin - 67%
Bowyer - 66%
Burton - 63%
Kahne - 53%
Montoya - 50%
McMurray - 48%
C-List:
Ragan - 47%
Menard - 33%
Bayne - 4%
Smith - 1%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Biffle - 108
Ky. Busch - 106
Edwards - 105
Kenseth - 100
B-List:
Martin - 95
Reutimann - 95
Bowyer - 93
Earnhardt Jr - 88
Burton - 84
McMurray - 80
Kahne - 77
Newman - 75
C-List:
Ragan - 80
Menard - 71
Bayne - 65*
Labonte 45
* only 1 start at Texas, compared to a maximum of 18 from other drivers.
2010 at Texas saw Denny Hamlin win both races.
The spring race saw Jeff Gordon lead the most laps, but a major wreck took him and race winning contender Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards down with him (along with impressive runs by Montoya, McMurray, Reutimann, and Menard). Once the dust settled there it was Johnson 2nd, Ky. Busch 3rd, Kahne being the top B-Lister in 5th with Martin 6th, Junior 8th and Truex Jr 9th. David Ragan was the Top C-Lister in 15th with Regan Smith 21st.
The fall race here was the much talked about Jimmie Johnson mid-race pit crew swap, Johnson still managed to bring home 9th. Hamlin took the lead in the very closing laps away from Matt Kenseth (2nd) while Greg Biffle led the most laps and finished 5th. B-Listers saw Martin 3rd, Logano 4th, Bowyer 7th, and Kahne 13th (driving for Red Bull). C-Listers were Ragan in 8th and Menard in 10th. This is also the race where Burton/Gordon had their under-caution colision, and where Martin Truex Jr. was lightning fast in practice but then struggled terribly in the race before smacking the wall twice and getting a DNF.
Noteables from the 2011 races at Las Vegas and California include:
A-List: Edwards (Vegas Winner), Harvick (Cali winner), Stewart (led most laps at Vegas, Top 5 until late at Cali), Ky. Busch (led most laps at Cali, blown motor at Vegas)
B-List: Montoya (3rd Vegas, 10th Cali), Kahne (14th Vegas, 9th Cali), Vickers (10th Vegas, 8th Cali), Newman (5th Vegas, 5th Cali), Earnhardt Jr (8th Vegas, 12th Cali)
C-List: Menard (12th Vegas, 16th Cali), Ragan (22nd Vegas & Cali), Bayne (20th Vegas, 30th Cali)
With all of these factors, here is our "short list" of those to watch on Thursday before lockdown:
A-LIST:
CARL EDWARDS (7 Starts Remaining) - Edwards had terrible luck at Texas in 2010 between the crash in the spring race and a pit road mistake that dropped him deep in the field at the fall race. Edwards does have 3 wins here however, and won at Las Vegas. He's 3rd in Loop Data at Texas and is in the Top 15 over 80% of the time. This is a Roush friendly track and I wouldn't mind using another Edwards start here.
JIMMIE JOHNSON (9 Starts Remaining) - Johnson was 2nd and 9th (after a unheard of pit crew swap) at Texas in 2010. He's excellent at these 1.5 mile tracks, and I have yet to pull the trigger on a 48 start this year. If I do hear more "testing" rumors coming out of the 48 camp (Texas is a Chase track), and there are better options in the A after Thursday practice, I will bench the 48. Otherwise Jimmie is making the team going into Friday.
KYLE BUSCH (8 Starts Remaining) - A lot of people are refusing to touch JGR this week because of previous engine issues. I am about 75% sold that they've got the issue fixed. Busch had the DOMINANT car here in the fall race, and then a pit road penalty and an "unsportstman-like conduct" penalty buried him for the rest of the day. His stats are too good to ignore simply because of an engine issue, and if he looks strong again in practice, I will gamble and put him on my team. If it's more-or-less a tie between Busch and someone else in the A-List for a spot on the team, only then would the engine factor would then play in as the tie-breaker.
Surprisingly I'm probably staying away from Denny Hamlin this week. The team has no momentum coming off a disappointing Martinsville race (one where they fell out of contention as the track conditions changed). Hamlin did win both races here, but the fall race he stole in the closing laps and did not have the dominant car. Likewise in the spring race a major crash took out a good chunk of the competitors that were potential race winners. Unless Hamlin is dominant in Thursday practice, he will find the bench.
Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle will also get consideration this week, as their track record here is impressive. However I always preach "pick race winners" in the A-List, and rarely do Kenseth and Biffle strike me as potential race winners. With the yahoo format, you don't really need to "start save" in the A-List, you can get 9 starts out of Johnson, Edwards, Ky. Busch and a mix of 9 starts out of Stewart, Hamlin, and Harvick and be done with the A-List. Tony Stewart will also get some consideration in practice based on Las Vegas and California performance, but I do not like the team momentum after throwing away a great run at California and being an embarrassment all weekend at Martinsville.
B-LIST:
RYAN NEWMAN (8 Starts Remaining) - Even though he hate late engine problems at Martinsville, the team continued to show why they are the class of the B-List so far this season. 5th at Vegas, 5th at California will more than likely at least get him on the team for this week. His numbers here at Texas and at the 1.5 mile tracks aren't spectacular, but with this team on a roll, this year could help boost his overall stats.
KASEY KAHNE (8 Starts Remaining) - Kahne had great numbers here last year with a 5th and 13th (Fall race in the Red Bull ride). These 1.5 mile tracks are either really good or really bad for Kahne, so practice will determine which side of the pendulum he's swinging on this week. He's been Top 10/Top 10 potential at Vegas and California and that's got me interested enough to give him consideration this week.
BRIAN VICKERS (9 Starts Remaining) - Respect "The Sheriff". Vickers is an excellent start-save option this week, and I will be watching his performance closely here. 2 Top 10s at Vegas and California this year. Much like Newman, his past numbers here and on the 1.5s aren't spectacular, but with this team riding the wave of momentum I will give him consideration.
DALE EARNHARDT JR. (8 Starts Remaining) - No reason to jump off this bandwagon yet. This is another track where Steve Letarte was great with Jeff Gordon last year, 8th at Vegas and 12th at Cali, plus he ranks well amongst other B-List drivers in the loop data. You always love the place where you got your first win, add that to the Martinsville momentum and I will not shy away from putting the 88 back on the team this week.
I will be watching a lot of other B-List drivers in practice, as my B-List will be up for grabs for the most part, with Newman being the only (almost) lock. Juan Pablo Montoya was 3rd in Vegas and had a decent run at Martinsville, although his numbers here at Texas are dismal. MWR was strong at Las Vegas and have been hot/cold here at Texas, so I will at least keep an eye on David Reutimann and Martin Truex Jr. (although I will be very leery of Truex after him putting up great practice numbers and laying an egg in the fall race). Mark Martin also gets consideration based mostly on his past data here, but he'll have to impress big time in practice as he was not good at Las Vegas or California.
C-LIST:
PAUL MENARD (8 Starts Remaining) - C-List is pretty easy for me this week. Going with "the standard" as some are calling it. Menard was great in the spring race before the big wreck and Top 10 in the fall race. Outstanding performances at Las Vegas and California makes it a done deal for me. Only small question is whether he can pull out of the funk he was in at Martinsville.
DAVID RAGAN (8 Starts Remaining) - Easy choice for me with Ragan being the top C-List driver in both races last year. He's the backup if Menard still is stumbling out of Martinsville.
I've only used 1 start with Menard/Ragan, if you've burned through more Menard/Ragan starts then you could reach for Trevor Bayne as a start-save, but I'm pretty down on Bayne right now. He was good at Las Vegas before having troubles, but was absolutely junk at California. He's coming off 3 strait weeks of dismal runs and torn up sheet metal. I started Bayne at California so there is no need for me to use another start-save here.
Check back Thursday night for our Practice 1 breakdown and our lock-in lineup going into the Friday final practice and qualifying. As always, we encourage you to join the discussion on the Forum at http://www.FantasyNascarPreview.com
*Important to remember, we get to see 1 practice session late Thursday afternoon before we have to lock-in our lineup Thursday night. This will also be the ONLY practice session that will be broadcast on TV. There will be a 2nd/Final session on Friday afternoon that will NOT be broadcast. Qualifying will be after the 2nd/Final session.
First the Loop Data, 2008-2010 from Atlanta, Charlotte, and Texas combined:
AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION:
A-List:
Ky. Busch - 9th
Kenseth - 10th
Johnson - 13th
Gordon - 13th
B-List:
Martin - 14th
Burton - 15th
Newman - 15th
Kahne - 16th
Bowyer - 16th
McMurray - 19th
Reutimann - 19th
Vickers - 19th
C-List:
Bayne - 16th*
Ragan - 19th
Menard - 23rd
Labonte 25th
* only 1 start at Texas, compared to a maximum of 18 from other drivers.
% LAPS in the TOP 15:
A-List:
Ky. Busch - 78%
Johnson - 77%
Hamlin - 71%
Stewart - 69%
B-List:
Kahne - 63%
Truex Jr - 60%
Burton - 58%
Bowyer - 58%
Martin - 58%
Reutimann - 56%
Earnhardt Jr - 54%
Montoya - 54%
C-List:
Ragan - 38%
Menard - 25%
Labonte - 10%
Bayne - 4%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Ky. Busch - 110
Johnson - 101
Hamlin - 98
Gordon - 96
B-List:
Kahne - 91
Martin - 85
Bowyer - 85
Reutimann - 85
Burton - 84
Earnhardt Jr - 82
Truex Jr - 82
Vickers - 82
C-List:
Ragan - 75
Bayne - 65*
Menard - 65
Labonte 54
* only 1 start at Texas, compared to a maximum of 18 from other drivers.
Now taking a look at 2008-2010 Texas only:
AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION:
A-List:
Hamlin - 6th
Kenseth - 8th
Johnson - 11th
Harvick - 11th
B-List:
Martin - 7th
Bowyer - 14th
Burton - 14th
Newman - 15th
Earnhardt Jr - 18th
Allmendinger - 19th
McMurray - 20th
Kahne - 20th
C-List:
Bayne - 17th*
Ragan - 17th
Menard - 21st
Smith - 29th
* only 1 start at Texas, compared to a maximum of 18 from other drivers.
% LAPS in the TOP 15:
A-List:
Biffle - 89%
Edwards - 85%
Stewart - 77%
Kenseth - 76%
B-List:
Reutimann - 74%
Earnhardt Jr - 69%
Martin - 67%
Bowyer - 66%
Burton - 63%
Kahne - 53%
Montoya - 50%
McMurray - 48%
C-List:
Ragan - 47%
Menard - 33%
Bayne - 4%
Smith - 1%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Biffle - 108
Ky. Busch - 106
Edwards - 105
Kenseth - 100
B-List:
Martin - 95
Reutimann - 95
Bowyer - 93
Earnhardt Jr - 88
Burton - 84
McMurray - 80
Kahne - 77
Newman - 75
C-List:
Ragan - 80
Menard - 71
Bayne - 65*
Labonte 45
* only 1 start at Texas, compared to a maximum of 18 from other drivers.
2010 at Texas saw Denny Hamlin win both races.
The spring race saw Jeff Gordon lead the most laps, but a major wreck took him and race winning contender Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards down with him (along with impressive runs by Montoya, McMurray, Reutimann, and Menard). Once the dust settled there it was Johnson 2nd, Ky. Busch 3rd, Kahne being the top B-Lister in 5th with Martin 6th, Junior 8th and Truex Jr 9th. David Ragan was the Top C-Lister in 15th with Regan Smith 21st.
The fall race here was the much talked about Jimmie Johnson mid-race pit crew swap, Johnson still managed to bring home 9th. Hamlin took the lead in the very closing laps away from Matt Kenseth (2nd) while Greg Biffle led the most laps and finished 5th. B-Listers saw Martin 3rd, Logano 4th, Bowyer 7th, and Kahne 13th (driving for Red Bull). C-Listers were Ragan in 8th and Menard in 10th. This is also the race where Burton/Gordon had their under-caution colision, and where Martin Truex Jr. was lightning fast in practice but then struggled terribly in the race before smacking the wall twice and getting a DNF.
Noteables from the 2011 races at Las Vegas and California include:
A-List: Edwards (Vegas Winner), Harvick (Cali winner), Stewart (led most laps at Vegas, Top 5 until late at Cali), Ky. Busch (led most laps at Cali, blown motor at Vegas)
B-List: Montoya (3rd Vegas, 10th Cali), Kahne (14th Vegas, 9th Cali), Vickers (10th Vegas, 8th Cali), Newman (5th Vegas, 5th Cali), Earnhardt Jr (8th Vegas, 12th Cali)
C-List: Menard (12th Vegas, 16th Cali), Ragan (22nd Vegas & Cali), Bayne (20th Vegas, 30th Cali)
With all of these factors, here is our "short list" of those to watch on Thursday before lockdown:
A-LIST:
CARL EDWARDS (7 Starts Remaining) - Edwards had terrible luck at Texas in 2010 between the crash in the spring race and a pit road mistake that dropped him deep in the field at the fall race. Edwards does have 3 wins here however, and won at Las Vegas. He's 3rd in Loop Data at Texas and is in the Top 15 over 80% of the time. This is a Roush friendly track and I wouldn't mind using another Edwards start here.
JIMMIE JOHNSON (9 Starts Remaining) - Johnson was 2nd and 9th (after a unheard of pit crew swap) at Texas in 2010. He's excellent at these 1.5 mile tracks, and I have yet to pull the trigger on a 48 start this year. If I do hear more "testing" rumors coming out of the 48 camp (Texas is a Chase track), and there are better options in the A after Thursday practice, I will bench the 48. Otherwise Jimmie is making the team going into Friday.
KYLE BUSCH (8 Starts Remaining) - A lot of people are refusing to touch JGR this week because of previous engine issues. I am about 75% sold that they've got the issue fixed. Busch had the DOMINANT car here in the fall race, and then a pit road penalty and an "unsportstman-like conduct" penalty buried him for the rest of the day. His stats are too good to ignore simply because of an engine issue, and if he looks strong again in practice, I will gamble and put him on my team. If it's more-or-less a tie between Busch and someone else in the A-List for a spot on the team, only then would the engine factor would then play in as the tie-breaker.
Surprisingly I'm probably staying away from Denny Hamlin this week. The team has no momentum coming off a disappointing Martinsville race (one where they fell out of contention as the track conditions changed). Hamlin did win both races here, but the fall race he stole in the closing laps and did not have the dominant car. Likewise in the spring race a major crash took out a good chunk of the competitors that were potential race winners. Unless Hamlin is dominant in Thursday practice, he will find the bench.
Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle will also get consideration this week, as their track record here is impressive. However I always preach "pick race winners" in the A-List, and rarely do Kenseth and Biffle strike me as potential race winners. With the yahoo format, you don't really need to "start save" in the A-List, you can get 9 starts out of Johnson, Edwards, Ky. Busch and a mix of 9 starts out of Stewart, Hamlin, and Harvick and be done with the A-List. Tony Stewart will also get some consideration in practice based on Las Vegas and California performance, but I do not like the team momentum after throwing away a great run at California and being an embarrassment all weekend at Martinsville.
B-LIST:
RYAN NEWMAN (8 Starts Remaining) - Even though he hate late engine problems at Martinsville, the team continued to show why they are the class of the B-List so far this season. 5th at Vegas, 5th at California will more than likely at least get him on the team for this week. His numbers here at Texas and at the 1.5 mile tracks aren't spectacular, but with this team on a roll, this year could help boost his overall stats.
KASEY KAHNE (8 Starts Remaining) - Kahne had great numbers here last year with a 5th and 13th (Fall race in the Red Bull ride). These 1.5 mile tracks are either really good or really bad for Kahne, so practice will determine which side of the pendulum he's swinging on this week. He's been Top 10/Top 10 potential at Vegas and California and that's got me interested enough to give him consideration this week.
BRIAN VICKERS (9 Starts Remaining) - Respect "The Sheriff". Vickers is an excellent start-save option this week, and I will be watching his performance closely here. 2 Top 10s at Vegas and California this year. Much like Newman, his past numbers here and on the 1.5s aren't spectacular, but with this team riding the wave of momentum I will give him consideration.
DALE EARNHARDT JR. (8 Starts Remaining) - No reason to jump off this bandwagon yet. This is another track where Steve Letarte was great with Jeff Gordon last year, 8th at Vegas and 12th at Cali, plus he ranks well amongst other B-List drivers in the loop data. You always love the place where you got your first win, add that to the Martinsville momentum and I will not shy away from putting the 88 back on the team this week.
I will be watching a lot of other B-List drivers in practice, as my B-List will be up for grabs for the most part, with Newman being the only (almost) lock. Juan Pablo Montoya was 3rd in Vegas and had a decent run at Martinsville, although his numbers here at Texas are dismal. MWR was strong at Las Vegas and have been hot/cold here at Texas, so I will at least keep an eye on David Reutimann and Martin Truex Jr. (although I will be very leery of Truex after him putting up great practice numbers and laying an egg in the fall race). Mark Martin also gets consideration based mostly on his past data here, but he'll have to impress big time in practice as he was not good at Las Vegas or California.
C-LIST:
PAUL MENARD (8 Starts Remaining) - C-List is pretty easy for me this week. Going with "the standard" as some are calling it. Menard was great in the spring race before the big wreck and Top 10 in the fall race. Outstanding performances at Las Vegas and California makes it a done deal for me. Only small question is whether he can pull out of the funk he was in at Martinsville.
DAVID RAGAN (8 Starts Remaining) - Easy choice for me with Ragan being the top C-List driver in both races last year. He's the backup if Menard still is stumbling out of Martinsville.
I've only used 1 start with Menard/Ragan, if you've burned through more Menard/Ragan starts then you could reach for Trevor Bayne as a start-save, but I'm pretty down on Bayne right now. He was good at Las Vegas before having troubles, but was absolutely junk at California. He's coming off 3 strait weeks of dismal runs and torn up sheet metal. I started Bayne at California so there is no need for me to use another start-save here.
Check back Thursday night for our Practice 1 breakdown and our lock-in lineup going into the Friday final practice and qualifying. As always, we encourage you to join the discussion on the Forum at http://www.FantasyNascarPreview.com
Monday, April 4, 2011
MARTINSVILLE 1 - Wrap Up
With 3 laps to go, Kevin Harvick stole what could of been FNG's 3rd winning pick in 6 races (correctly picked Edwards in Vegas and Busch at Bristol previously). Obviously our coin flip turned out in our favor by starting Dale Earnhardt Jr. over Juan Pablo Montoya, especially with the bonus points for Junebug leading in the closing laps.
Our team of 11 - 33 - 88 - 47 racked up 298 points this week, moving us up 15% from 54th to 69th percentile in the Yahoo nation. Oddly enough it feels like the most disappointing good points day. Considering at the half way point Clint Boywer, Denny Hamlin, and Junior were 1-2-3 with Bobby Labonte leading all C-List'ers in about 16th. Things went downhill after Kurt Busch/Brian Vickers tangled and and torpedo'd Labonte into the Turn 3 wall. Later in the race the 33 team made an adjustment that turned Bowyer from a Top 5 car into a back-marker, to which he could never fully recover. Denny Hamlin got caught on pit road with the caution, and then somehow the wave around cars got jammed up, and never got caught up to the field when the green flagged waved with 30 to go. Hamlin restarted more than 1/2 lap down to the leaders, and could never catch the back of the field with the race going green for the remainder of the distance.
All things considered, you could of made a lot worse picks than what we ended up with today. Both Kasey Kahne and Ryan Newman had Top 10 days going before their respective problems. Burning a Jimmie Johnson start with him finishing 11th would still have be banging my head against the table, likewise burning a Paul Menard start with him being in/out of the garage (although at his pace before his problems, he would of finished in the mid 30s anyways).
With Richmond coming up at the end of the month, looking back on Phoenix and Martinsville will be important. So keep in mind names like Harvick and Gordon to pair with Kyle Busch or Denny Hamlin on your A-List. Newman, Kahne, and Junior are all names that should rank up there, as well as A.J. Allmendinger as a great start-save option with a 9th and 14th place runs respectively. Bobby Labonte flat track performance looks like someone we could potentially get more starts out of than we first thought, which would free us up to use our Menard/Ragan starts a little more liberally and not have to lean as much on Trevor Bayne.
Stay tuned this week as we preview Texas 1. This is another week where we will get to see a Thursday night practice before we have to lock down late Thursday night. There will be 1 more practice Friday after lockdown, followed by qualifying. However due to SPEED's Barrett Jackson coverage, it does not appear (at least on SPEEDTV.com) that we will get to see the 2nd/Final practice session on TV. So keep it locked here as we will follow the action as it unfolds this weekend in Texas.
Our team of 11 - 33 - 88 - 47 racked up 298 points this week, moving us up 15% from 54th to 69th percentile in the Yahoo nation. Oddly enough it feels like the most disappointing good points day. Considering at the half way point Clint Boywer, Denny Hamlin, and Junior were 1-2-3 with Bobby Labonte leading all C-List'ers in about 16th. Things went downhill after Kurt Busch/Brian Vickers tangled and and torpedo'd Labonte into the Turn 3 wall. Later in the race the 33 team made an adjustment that turned Bowyer from a Top 5 car into a back-marker, to which he could never fully recover. Denny Hamlin got caught on pit road with the caution, and then somehow the wave around cars got jammed up, and never got caught up to the field when the green flagged waved with 30 to go. Hamlin restarted more than 1/2 lap down to the leaders, and could never catch the back of the field with the race going green for the remainder of the distance.
All things considered, you could of made a lot worse picks than what we ended up with today. Both Kasey Kahne and Ryan Newman had Top 10 days going before their respective problems. Burning a Jimmie Johnson start with him finishing 11th would still have be banging my head against the table, likewise burning a Paul Menard start with him being in/out of the garage (although at his pace before his problems, he would of finished in the mid 30s anyways).
With Richmond coming up at the end of the month, looking back on Phoenix and Martinsville will be important. So keep in mind names like Harvick and Gordon to pair with Kyle Busch or Denny Hamlin on your A-List. Newman, Kahne, and Junior are all names that should rank up there, as well as A.J. Allmendinger as a great start-save option with a 9th and 14th place runs respectively. Bobby Labonte flat track performance looks like someone we could potentially get more starts out of than we first thought, which would free us up to use our Menard/Ragan starts a little more liberally and not have to lean as much on Trevor Bayne.
Stay tuned this week as we preview Texas 1. This is another week where we will get to see a Thursday night practice before we have to lock down late Thursday night. There will be 1 more practice Friday after lockdown, followed by qualifying. However due to SPEED's Barrett Jackson coverage, it does not appear (at least on SPEEDTV.com) that we will get to see the 2nd/Final practice session on TV. So keep it locked here as we will follow the action as it unfolds this weekend in Texas.
Saturday, April 2, 2011
MARTINSVILLE - Lockdown
Qualifying is in the books, see below for my thoughts on practice, but now that we have the all important pit selection and qualifying results in, here is what we're thinking in the A, B, and C-Lists.
A-LIST:
Give the battle of Denny Hamlin Vs. Jimmie Johnson to Denny Hamlin. Not saying Johnson isn't a threat to win, but Hamlin is very happy with his car, and Hamlin 5th Vs. Johnson 17th is enough for me to rank Hamlin as the Top A-List selection this week. Remember Johnson did not lead a lap here last time in Martinsville, I think Hamlin is a threat to lead the most laps.
If you're looking to go outside the box, Kevin Harvick is an a good option not named Hamlin or Johnson, Harvick will be in contention for the win, and might of learned a thing or two from the truck race after that massive camber adjustment they made. I wouldn't go much deeper than Harvick in the A-List this week.
RANKINGS: 11, 48, 29, 18, 24, 99, 14, ect.
B-LIST:
As with most of the other experts, I'm not falling all over myself for Jamie McMurray. He looked this good in practice here at this track before and absolutely fell on his face in the race, which has been a trend of his in the past. His past track record isn't great here, and although he's all over the top of the charts, he's by no means an auto-start on your roster.
I still really like Clint Bowyer this week, his car has been fast and consistent and he should be good for a solid Top 10, maybe even a Top 5 if the cards fall correctly. He's got a good pit stall with an "opening" behind him for an easy in and the 38 car in front of him who should be a lap down early.
Ryan Newman is another who really woke up in qualifying (no surprise). He's got a pit stall opening in front of him for an easy out and has great track position to start the race. We should be seeing Top 10 contention out of Newman on Sunday.
Kasey Kahne and A.J. Allmendinger are two drivers who barely missed my team when I rolled the dice on some sleepers, but if you have them on your team, both are good start options, especially Dinger for a start-save. Both drivers have had an excellent flat track program in the past. Joey Logano really impressed me with his backup car and moves up my rankings due to track position and pit stall selection.
I was very disappointed with both Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Juan Pablo Montoya, both are wasting space on my B-List this week. I'm giving the momentum and past experience edge slightly to Earnhardt Jr, although I do like Montoya's pit selection better with the 60 and 66 start-n-parks on either side of him.
RANKINGS: 33, 39, 4, 20, 1, 43, 88, 42, 5, 31, 2, ect.
C-LIST:Start Bobby Labonte. Even though Paul Menard can more-than-likely finish in front of the 47 this week, we can't start Menard every week. This is the perfect situation to sit Menard and start someone like Labonte this week with his on-track performance and excellent track position and pit stall. Regan Smith laid down a good qualifying run, which is nothing new, but his past performance here is just dismal. I'd start Smith if you're C-List is Smith/Menard, but that's it. David Ragan might be another driver who you could sneak a start out of, he at least has potential to be on pace with Menard. Casey Mears turned up bust, he gets benched.
Our team will roll off with the following:
A-LIST:
DENNY HAMLIN (9 Starts Remaining)
B-LIST:
CLINT BOWYER (9 Starts Remaining)
DALE EARNHARDT JR. (9 Starts Remaining)
C-LIST:
BOBBY LABONTE (9 Starts Remaining)
BENCH:
Jimmie Johnson (9 Starts), Juan Pablo Montoya (8 Starts), Brad Keselowski (9 Starts), Casey Mears (9 Starts).
Don't forget to watch the yahoo message board around Noon EST for our link to our weekly live chat that will take you up to the green flag!
Give the battle of Denny Hamlin Vs. Jimmie Johnson to Denny Hamlin. Not saying Johnson isn't a threat to win, but Hamlin is very happy with his car, and Hamlin 5th Vs. Johnson 17th is enough for me to rank Hamlin as the Top A-List selection this week. Remember Johnson did not lead a lap here last time in Martinsville, I think Hamlin is a threat to lead the most laps.
If you're looking to go outside the box, Kevin Harvick is an a good option not named Hamlin or Johnson, Harvick will be in contention for the win, and might of learned a thing or two from the truck race after that massive camber adjustment they made. I wouldn't go much deeper than Harvick in the A-List this week.
RANKINGS: 11, 48, 29, 18, 24, 99, 14, ect.
B-LIST:
As with most of the other experts, I'm not falling all over myself for Jamie McMurray. He looked this good in practice here at this track before and absolutely fell on his face in the race, which has been a trend of his in the past. His past track record isn't great here, and although he's all over the top of the charts, he's by no means an auto-start on your roster.
I still really like Clint Bowyer this week, his car has been fast and consistent and he should be good for a solid Top 10, maybe even a Top 5 if the cards fall correctly. He's got a good pit stall with an "opening" behind him for an easy in and the 38 car in front of him who should be a lap down early.
Ryan Newman is another who really woke up in qualifying (no surprise). He's got a pit stall opening in front of him for an easy out and has great track position to start the race. We should be seeing Top 10 contention out of Newman on Sunday.
Kasey Kahne and A.J. Allmendinger are two drivers who barely missed my team when I rolled the dice on some sleepers, but if you have them on your team, both are good start options, especially Dinger for a start-save. Both drivers have had an excellent flat track program in the past. Joey Logano really impressed me with his backup car and moves up my rankings due to track position and pit stall selection.
I was very disappointed with both Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Juan Pablo Montoya, both are wasting space on my B-List this week. I'm giving the momentum and past experience edge slightly to Earnhardt Jr, although I do like Montoya's pit selection better with the 60 and 66 start-n-parks on either side of him.
RANKINGS: 33, 39, 4, 20, 1, 43, 88, 42, 5, 31, 2, ect.
C-LIST:Start Bobby Labonte. Even though Paul Menard can more-than-likely finish in front of the 47 this week, we can't start Menard every week. This is the perfect situation to sit Menard and start someone like Labonte this week with his on-track performance and excellent track position and pit stall. Regan Smith laid down a good qualifying run, which is nothing new, but his past performance here is just dismal. I'd start Smith if you're C-List is Smith/Menard, but that's it. David Ragan might be another driver who you could sneak a start out of, he at least has potential to be on pace with Menard. Casey Mears turned up bust, he gets benched.
Our team will roll off with the following:
A-LIST:
DENNY HAMLIN (9 Starts Remaining)
B-LIST:
CLINT BOWYER (9 Starts Remaining)
DALE EARNHARDT JR. (9 Starts Remaining)
C-LIST:
BOBBY LABONTE (9 Starts Remaining)
BENCH:
Jimmie Johnson (9 Starts), Juan Pablo Montoya (8 Starts), Brad Keselowski (9 Starts), Casey Mears (9 Starts).
Don't forget to watch the yahoo message board around Noon EST for our link to our weekly live chat that will take you up to the green flag!
Friday, April 1, 2011
Martinsville - Lineup
Let's cut right to the chase and look at the numbers from today:
P1 10-Lap Averages:
Rank Car# Driver From Lap To Lap Avg Speed
1 42 Juan Pablo Montoya 5 14 93.956
2 5 Mark Martin 47 56 93.903
3 47 Bobby Labonte 43 52 93.779
4 48 Jimmie Johnson 24 33 93.708
5 14 Tony Stewart 4 13 93.344
6 24 Jeff Gordon 49 58 93.250
7 20 Joey Logano 16 25 93.166
8 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 3 12 93.084
9 1 Jamie McMurray 2 11 93.010
10 6 David Ragan 45 54 92.934
11 13 Casey Mears 2 11 92.922
12 99 Carl Edwards 49 58 92.883
13 78 Regan Smith 51 60 92.737
14 27 Paul Menard 2 11 92.733
15 16 Greg Biffle 2 11 92.535
16 17 Matt Kenseth 23 32 92.369
17 83 Brian Vickers 3 12 92.240
18 56 Martin Truex Jr. 59 68 92.205
19 09 Landon Cassill(i) 4 13 92.123
20 22 Kurt Busch 38 47 92.045
21 21 Trevor Bayne(i) 4 13 91.819
22 2 Brad Keselowski 29 38 91.632
23 38 Travis Kvapil(i) 1 10 90.784
24 71 Hermie Sadler(i) 42 51 90.422
25 31 Jeff Burton 1 10 90.108
--------------------------------
P1 Overall Lap Averages:
A-List:
Ky. Busch - 20.32 (42 Laps)
Harvick - 20.37 (47)
Hamlin - 20.55 (20)
Johnson - 20.68 (70)
Gordon - 20.71 (65)
B-List:
Allmendinger - 20.40 (45 Laps)
Bowyer - 20.42 (58)
Logano - 20.47 (50)
Montoya - 20.47 (50)
Martin - 20.48 (80)
Kahne - 20.51 (44)
Burton - 20.60 (48)
Earnhardt Jr - 20.61 (53)
Newman - 20.74 (56)
C-List:
Mears - 20.52 (46 Laps)
Labonte - 20.58 (68)
Ragan - 20.58 (73)
Smith - 20.61 (75)
Menard - 20.64 (52)
Schrader - 20.91 (58)
P2 10-Lap Averages:
Rank Car# Driver From Lap To Lap Avg Speed
1 1 Jamie McMurray 8 17 94.675
2 27 Paul Menard 15 24 94.355
3 5 Mark Martin 23 32 94.354
4 18 Kyle Busch 4 13 94.129
5 29 Kevin Harvick 6 15 94.100
6 42 Juan Pablo Montoya 64 73 94.090
7 48 Jimmie Johnson 7 16 94.005
8 39 Ryan Newman 5 14 93.980
9 20 Joey Logano 2 11 93.977
10 24 Jeff Gordon 4 13 93.935
11 11 Denny Hamlin 58 67 93.912
12 9 Marcos Ambrose 2 11 93.910
13 00 David Reutimann 4 13 93.897
14 31 Jeff Burton 5 14 93.883
15 33 Clint Bowyer 4 13 93.806
16 56 Martin Truex Jr. 6 15 93.751
17 43 A J Allmendinger 3 12 93.716
18 2 Brad Keselowski 47 56 93.448
19 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 33 42 93.430
20 14 Tony Stewart 2 11 93.428
21 13 Casey Mears 3 12 93.393
22 47 Bobby Labonte 17 26 93.333
23 4 Kasey Kahne 17 26 93.311
24 16 Greg Biffle 2 11 93.275
25 17 Matt Kenseth 6 15 93.110
26 6 David Ragan 9 18 93.040
27 78 Regan Smith 2 11 92.566
28 83 Brian Vickers 43 52 92.455
29 21 Trevor Bayne(i) 2 11 92.319
30 7 Robby Gordon 21 30 92.195
31 22 Kurt Busch 32 41 92.185
32 36 Dave Blaney 1 10 91.977
33 09 Landon Cassill(i) 2 11 89.954
-------------------------------------
P2 Overall Lap Averages:
A-List:
Harvick - 20.34 (52 Laps)
Gordon - 20.40 (40)
Johnson - 20.43 (85)
Hamlin - 20.46 (91)
Ky. Busch - 20.52 (81)
B-List:
Bowyer - 20.39 (45 Laps)
Kahne - 20.40 (48)
Martin - 20.44 (51)
Earnhardt Jr - 20.44 (51)
Allmendinger - 20.45 (74)
Montoya - 20.45 (76)
Newman - 20.50 (54)
Keselowski - 20.51 (72)
Burton - 20.52 (74)
C-List:
Ragan - 20.42 (52 Laps)
Mears - 20.43 (48)
Labonte - 20.56 (65)
Menard - 20.65 (64)
A-LIST:
JIMMIE JOHNSON (9 Starts Remaining) - No surprise here, Jimmie was pretty solid in practice. You come to learn that the 48 will never show all of their cards and look like the lock for the race win in practice. But Johnson improved the car a lot over the 2 sessions and ran a bunch of laps. We'll see what he can lay down in qualifying
DENNY HAMLIN (9 Starts Remaining) - Denny says he's really really really happy with his car in one of the SPEED TV interviews, and the speed sheets show it. I'm leaning on starting the 11, even if the 48 slightly out qualifies him. Right now the 11 looks like he could be the race winner.
Kyle Busch looked great in the first practice session but really lost the handle in the 2nd session. The car got loose and he wasn't very satisfied with the car overall when the session ended. Kevin Harvick looked very smooth over the session, and could be a Top 5 car, but he didn't make a single long run over either session which I did not like to see, especially with tire wear a potential issue. Jeff Gordon was miserable in the first session, got it turned around in the 2nd session, but I still don't see him being ahead of Hamlin or Johnson at the end of the day.
B-LIST:
CLINT BOWYER (9 Starts Remaining) - I really like the way Bowyer looked today. His numbers were fast AND consistent over both practice sessions. 2nd in Lap Average in P1, 1st in Lap Average in P2. Good momentum coming into this race, RCR cars have looked solid across the board. Bowyer gets a spot on the lineup.
JUAN PABLO MONTOYA (8 Starts Remaining) - Another guy who was pretty happy with his car, and his 10-lap averages were towards the top of the charts in both sessions. It's going to take a pretty good qualifying run for me to start the 42, but Montoya knows how to lay down a lap in qualifying, so we'll see what he's got tomorrow.
DALE EARNHARDT JR. (9 Starts Remaining) - A great start save option is Junior. He's got good momentum and a great track record here, his numbers were fair today so again this comes down to qualifying performance against the rest of the B-List on whether he gets the start.
BRAD KESELOWSKI (9 Starts Remaining) - I'm reaching for another start-save here. His car was not very good in race trim until late in the session he made a run that looked really impressive. He's fantastic in qualifying trim so he might be able to steal some qualifying points as well. Brad K is definitely a start in the Top 10 or get the bench driver for me this week.
Ryan Newman looked decent all day but didn't show the speed that I thought he would. There are other places we could use Newman and get great value out of him. His team mate/boss Stewart was not that impressive either. Kasey Kahne was another car who looked stable but not very fast in overall speed. A.J. Allmendinger looked great in the first session, but lost the handle in the 2nd session and faded to mid pack, so he just misses my lineup. Jeff Burton said he was not happy with his car "but no one was happy today"....got news for ya, yeah, plenty of people are happy with their cars, bench Burton. Both Jamie McMurray and Mark Martin looked fast on the speed charts, but both are miserably disappointed with the handling of their cars, so I doubt their flashes of brilliance on the speed charts will last for 500 laps, they find the bench.
C-LIST:
BOBBY LABONTE (9 Starts Remaining) - Bobby Labonte looked even better than I expected today. Decent in race runs, and actually laid down a couple of fast qualifying passes as well. He's a great start save option if he can qualifying well tomorrow.
CASEY MEARS (9 Starts Remaining) - Most shocking C-List I will roll out this year. Both Mears and Labonte seem to be performing on the same level this weekend, both were about the same in performance at Phoenix this year as well. I can't really choose between either one on my team, so I'm going with both, whoever qualifies better will more than likely get the start.
David Ragan laid down a good qualifying lap in P2, but that was about the only highlight for Ragan. His team had to "start over" going into P2 since they were so bad in P1, and they still were towards the back of the pack in 10-lap averages in P2. Paul Menard showed nothing impressive today, a half way decent qualifying run in P1 was the only highlight for Menard. Again, would not be surprised to see Menard ahead of all the C-Listers come Sunday, but we say that every week. We have to find races where Menard looks "on-par" with his C-List competitors, and this week looks like it could be one of those weeks.
Qualifying and pit selection is huge here, so check back tomorrow evening for our lockdown lineup! As always, join the chat over at http://www.FantasyNascarPreview.com Forum and check out their expert chat at 11:00 AM EST on Sunday, followed by our live chat at Noon.
P1 10-Lap Averages:
Rank Car# Driver From Lap To Lap Avg Speed
1 42 Juan Pablo Montoya 5 14 93.956
2 5 Mark Martin 47 56 93.903
3 47 Bobby Labonte 43 52 93.779
4 48 Jimmie Johnson 24 33 93.708
5 14 Tony Stewart 4 13 93.344
6 24 Jeff Gordon 49 58 93.250
7 20 Joey Logano 16 25 93.166
8 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 3 12 93.084
9 1 Jamie McMurray 2 11 93.010
10 6 David Ragan 45 54 92.934
11 13 Casey Mears 2 11 92.922
12 99 Carl Edwards 49 58 92.883
13 78 Regan Smith 51 60 92.737
14 27 Paul Menard 2 11 92.733
15 16 Greg Biffle 2 11 92.535
16 17 Matt Kenseth 23 32 92.369
17 83 Brian Vickers 3 12 92.240
18 56 Martin Truex Jr. 59 68 92.205
19 09 Landon Cassill(i) 4 13 92.123
20 22 Kurt Busch 38 47 92.045
21 21 Trevor Bayne(i) 4 13 91.819
22 2 Brad Keselowski 29 38 91.632
23 38 Travis Kvapil(i) 1 10 90.784
24 71 Hermie Sadler(i) 42 51 90.422
25 31 Jeff Burton 1 10 90.108
--------------------------------
P1 Overall Lap Averages:
A-List:
Ky. Busch - 20.32 (42 Laps)
Harvick - 20.37 (47)
Hamlin - 20.55 (20)
Johnson - 20.68 (70)
Gordon - 20.71 (65)
B-List:
Allmendinger - 20.40 (45 Laps)
Bowyer - 20.42 (58)
Logano - 20.47 (50)
Montoya - 20.47 (50)
Martin - 20.48 (80)
Kahne - 20.51 (44)
Burton - 20.60 (48)
Earnhardt Jr - 20.61 (53)
Newman - 20.74 (56)
C-List:
Mears - 20.52 (46 Laps)
Labonte - 20.58 (68)
Ragan - 20.58 (73)
Smith - 20.61 (75)
Menard - 20.64 (52)
Schrader - 20.91 (58)
P2 10-Lap Averages:
Rank Car# Driver From Lap To Lap Avg Speed
1 1 Jamie McMurray 8 17 94.675
2 27 Paul Menard 15 24 94.355
3 5 Mark Martin 23 32 94.354
4 18 Kyle Busch 4 13 94.129
5 29 Kevin Harvick 6 15 94.100
6 42 Juan Pablo Montoya 64 73 94.090
7 48 Jimmie Johnson 7 16 94.005
8 39 Ryan Newman 5 14 93.980
9 20 Joey Logano 2 11 93.977
10 24 Jeff Gordon 4 13 93.935
11 11 Denny Hamlin 58 67 93.912
12 9 Marcos Ambrose 2 11 93.910
13 00 David Reutimann 4 13 93.897
14 31 Jeff Burton 5 14 93.883
15 33 Clint Bowyer 4 13 93.806
16 56 Martin Truex Jr. 6 15 93.751
17 43 A J Allmendinger 3 12 93.716
18 2 Brad Keselowski 47 56 93.448
19 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 33 42 93.430
20 14 Tony Stewart 2 11 93.428
21 13 Casey Mears 3 12 93.393
22 47 Bobby Labonte 17 26 93.333
23 4 Kasey Kahne 17 26 93.311
24 16 Greg Biffle 2 11 93.275
25 17 Matt Kenseth 6 15 93.110
26 6 David Ragan 9 18 93.040
27 78 Regan Smith 2 11 92.566
28 83 Brian Vickers 43 52 92.455
29 21 Trevor Bayne(i) 2 11 92.319
30 7 Robby Gordon 21 30 92.195
31 22 Kurt Busch 32 41 92.185
32 36 Dave Blaney 1 10 91.977
33 09 Landon Cassill(i) 2 11 89.954
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P2 Overall Lap Averages:
A-List:
Harvick - 20.34 (52 Laps)
Gordon - 20.40 (40)
Johnson - 20.43 (85)
Hamlin - 20.46 (91)
Ky. Busch - 20.52 (81)
B-List:
Bowyer - 20.39 (45 Laps)
Kahne - 20.40 (48)
Martin - 20.44 (51)
Earnhardt Jr - 20.44 (51)
Allmendinger - 20.45 (74)
Montoya - 20.45 (76)
Newman - 20.50 (54)
Keselowski - 20.51 (72)
Burton - 20.52 (74)
C-List:
Ragan - 20.42 (52 Laps)
Mears - 20.43 (48)
Labonte - 20.56 (65)
Menard - 20.65 (64)
A-LIST:
JIMMIE JOHNSON (9 Starts Remaining) - No surprise here, Jimmie was pretty solid in practice. You come to learn that the 48 will never show all of their cards and look like the lock for the race win in practice. But Johnson improved the car a lot over the 2 sessions and ran a bunch of laps. We'll see what he can lay down in qualifying
DENNY HAMLIN (9 Starts Remaining) - Denny says he's really really really happy with his car in one of the SPEED TV interviews, and the speed sheets show it. I'm leaning on starting the 11, even if the 48 slightly out qualifies him. Right now the 11 looks like he could be the race winner.
Kyle Busch looked great in the first practice session but really lost the handle in the 2nd session. The car got loose and he wasn't very satisfied with the car overall when the session ended. Kevin Harvick looked very smooth over the session, and could be a Top 5 car, but he didn't make a single long run over either session which I did not like to see, especially with tire wear a potential issue. Jeff Gordon was miserable in the first session, got it turned around in the 2nd session, but I still don't see him being ahead of Hamlin or Johnson at the end of the day.
B-LIST:
CLINT BOWYER (9 Starts Remaining) - I really like the way Bowyer looked today. His numbers were fast AND consistent over both practice sessions. 2nd in Lap Average in P1, 1st in Lap Average in P2. Good momentum coming into this race, RCR cars have looked solid across the board. Bowyer gets a spot on the lineup.
JUAN PABLO MONTOYA (8 Starts Remaining) - Another guy who was pretty happy with his car, and his 10-lap averages were towards the top of the charts in both sessions. It's going to take a pretty good qualifying run for me to start the 42, but Montoya knows how to lay down a lap in qualifying, so we'll see what he's got tomorrow.
DALE EARNHARDT JR. (9 Starts Remaining) - A great start save option is Junior. He's got good momentum and a great track record here, his numbers were fair today so again this comes down to qualifying performance against the rest of the B-List on whether he gets the start.
BRAD KESELOWSKI (9 Starts Remaining) - I'm reaching for another start-save here. His car was not very good in race trim until late in the session he made a run that looked really impressive. He's fantastic in qualifying trim so he might be able to steal some qualifying points as well. Brad K is definitely a start in the Top 10 or get the bench driver for me this week.
Ryan Newman looked decent all day but didn't show the speed that I thought he would. There are other places we could use Newman and get great value out of him. His team mate/boss Stewart was not that impressive either. Kasey Kahne was another car who looked stable but not very fast in overall speed. A.J. Allmendinger looked great in the first session, but lost the handle in the 2nd session and faded to mid pack, so he just misses my lineup. Jeff Burton said he was not happy with his car "but no one was happy today"....got news for ya, yeah, plenty of people are happy with their cars, bench Burton. Both Jamie McMurray and Mark Martin looked fast on the speed charts, but both are miserably disappointed with the handling of their cars, so I doubt their flashes of brilliance on the speed charts will last for 500 laps, they find the bench.
C-LIST:
BOBBY LABONTE (9 Starts Remaining) - Bobby Labonte looked even better than I expected today. Decent in race runs, and actually laid down a couple of fast qualifying passes as well. He's a great start save option if he can qualifying well tomorrow.
CASEY MEARS (9 Starts Remaining) - Most shocking C-List I will roll out this year. Both Mears and Labonte seem to be performing on the same level this weekend, both were about the same in performance at Phoenix this year as well. I can't really choose between either one on my team, so I'm going with both, whoever qualifies better will more than likely get the start.
David Ragan laid down a good qualifying lap in P2, but that was about the only highlight for Ragan. His team had to "start over" going into P2 since they were so bad in P1, and they still were towards the back of the pack in 10-lap averages in P2. Paul Menard showed nothing impressive today, a half way decent qualifying run in P1 was the only highlight for Menard. Again, would not be surprised to see Menard ahead of all the C-Listers come Sunday, but we say that every week. We have to find races where Menard looks "on-par" with his C-List competitors, and this week looks like it could be one of those weeks.
Qualifying and pit selection is huge here, so check back tomorrow evening for our lockdown lineup! As always, join the chat over at http://www.FantasyNascarPreview.com Forum and check out their expert chat at 11:00 AM EST on Sunday, followed by our live chat at Noon.
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