DAYTONA 500 - Early Thoughts

The Bud Shootout and Qualifying are now completed, and if you read the previous post, this shouldn't mean a whole heck of a lot to you. Especially with the rules changes placed on the teams last night, we will NOT see the same kind of racing we saw on Saturday night with cars being able to push for 10+ laps at a time without a breather.

Revert back to the Fall Talladega race last year, where the new 2-car draft was first introduced. The teams had not yet capitalized on the technology to keep cars tucked up underneath other cars for extended periods of time, which is exactly what we will see on Thursday and Sunday.

So here is what I am looking for in my early picks for the Daytona 500. With the rules changes, I will look into the Fall Talladega race, paired with Loop Data from Daytona, and performance in the Gatorade Duels, with a very very small amount of weight on results from the Bud Shootout.

I encourage everyone to read the loop data from Daytona, the last 12 races (6 years including the 400 and 500):
http://www.motorracingnetwork.com/ebook/2011_Daytona_500_Pre/flash.html#/1/


With a plate race being up to chance and so many variables, all of the loop data doesn't necessarily holds the same weight. I am mainly looking at Average Finish, Average Position, Laps Led, and the Overall Driver Rating

AVERAGE FINISH:
Bowyer - 12.8
Harvick - 14.3
Stewart - 14.5
Ku. Busch - 14.6
Kenseth - 14.8
Kahne - 15.0
Earnhardt Jr - 15.3
Ragan - 17.1
Edwards - 17.7
Burton - 18.0
Vickers - 18.8
J. Gordon - 19.0
Ky. Busch - 19.5


AVERAGE POSITION:
Johnson - 11.0
 Ky. Busch - 12.1
J. Gordon - 12.2
Stewart - 13.1
Ku. Busch - 14.0
Kenseth - 14.5
Burton - 15.3
Earnhardt Jr - 15.6
Edwards - 15.6
Bowyer - 15.7
Harvick - 16.6
Newman - 17.1
Kahne - 17.4
McMurray - 17.4
Hamlin - 17.7


LAPS LEAD:
Stewart - 523
Ky. Busch - 261
Ku. Busch - 198
J. Gordon - 147
Hamlin - 116
Bowyer - 115
Earnhardt Jr. - 110
Harvick - 79


OVERALL DRIVING RATING:
Stewart - 100.7
Ky. Busch - 99.0
Ku. Busch - 94.8
J. Gordon - 92.8
Johnson - 91.7

Kenseth - 91.6
Harvick - 88.5
Bowyer - 86.7
Earnhardt Jr. - 86.7
Edwards - 85.2

Burton - 84.9
Newman - 81.4
Kahne - 81.4
McMurray - 81.3
Vickers - 80.3


Let's now take a quick review of the Fall Talladega Race:
DOMINANT CARS: Burton, Earnhardt Jr, Bowyer

Jeff Burton and Dale Earnhadt Jr were able to team up and smoke the field early, but ironically, those 2 took each other out in a mid-race crash. Still Earnhardt Jr held onto the most laps led in the race (24) while Burton led 6 times for 11 laps. After that Bowyer proved to be the car to beat as he was great at pushing and pulling people around the track, winning the race and leading 19 laps.

Kyle Busch led 20 laps but fell off terribly late in the race, Montoya also led 18 laps but that was mostly in the mid stages after the Burton/Junior crash.

Harvick narrowly missed the win, and led 12 laps, he was a better pusher than he was a leader but he still ran strong regardless. RCR and EGR were the strong teams, as McMurray was also strong before a mid race crash eliminated him along with the stout performance from Montoya.


So going into the Duels, these are the teams I will be watching the closest. Kurt Busch winning the Bud Shootout is not a stone-cold lock into your A-List, but as you can see from the loop data he is no slouch on restrictor plate tracks, not posting a lot of wins but keeping his nose clean and getting solid finishes. Tony Stewart is ranked #1 in the Loop Data, he's a plate track ace but I need to see some more performance out of him in the Duels as he has not impressed in testing or the shootout.


SLEEPER ALERT: Bill Elliott

Elliott is now locked into the field in the 09 car thanks to an excellent qualifying effort, and a post-qualifying interview gave a lot of insight into his mentality for the rest of this week. Don't expect much out of the 09 in drafting practice or in the Duels, they only have 1 good primary car that they can not afford to wreck, and with a locked in spot and Bill having the tendency to ride around the back of the pack as is, you will see lackluster results this week.

But don't count Elliott out, he knows how to keep his nose clean in these plate races and the 09 car has a very stout plate package, depending on what we see out of some of the other C-List drivers this week, I am not keeping the 09 in the back of my memory as a potential C-List start saver.


Tomorrow or Wednesday I will go through my "early picks" in the A, B & C List. As always feel free to leave any questions or comments below!