PHOENIX 1 - Data & Lineup

Welcome geekers. Once again sorry for the lack of posts leading up to the Daytona 500 as I was out of town and away from the computer from Friday-Sunday. If you followed my advice, congrats and welcome to the 43rd percentile! I scored 200 points on the nose with Harvick, Burton, Truex, & Smith.

Now that we've moved past the roll of the dice race, it's onto the "real" start of the season as we head west to Phoenix. This is where you can make up ground on those who won the Daytona Roulette game, or you can expand your early lead.

Let's take a look at some Loop Data from the last 4 years (8 races) at Phoenix...which takes into account every "COT" race at the track. Here are the numbers:

AVERAGE FINISH:
A-List:
Johnson - 3rd
Hamlin - 10th
Ky. Busch - 10th
Biffle - 11th
Edwards - 12th

B-List:
Martin - 7th
Burton - 12th
Bowyer - 14th
Logano - 14th
Truex - 15th

Ambrose - 15th
McMurray - 16th
Montoya - 17th
Allmendinger - 19th
Newman - 20th

C-List:
Labonte - 22nd
Mears - 24th
Ragan - 25th
Menard - 27th
Smith - 27th


% of LAPS in TOP 15:
A-List:

Johnson - 99%
Ky. Busch - 94%
Gordon - 80%
Hamlin - 79%
Stewart - 78%

B-List:
Truex - 72%
Newman - 70%
Martin - 67%
Burton - 66%
Allmendinger - 66%

Bowyer - 57%
Montoya - 52%
Earnhardt Jr - 48%
Ambrose - 39%
Logano - 36%

C-List:
Mears - 26%
Ragan - 14%
Labonte - 11%
Smith - 9%
Menard - 5%



OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:

Johnson -149.9
Hamlin - 103.3
Ky. Busch - 101.2
Edwards - 99.3
Gordon - 99.3

B-List:
Martin - 145.6
Truex - 91.5
Newman - 90.4
Burton - 86.9
Bowyer - 84.6

Earnhardt Jr - 83.6
Montoya - 81.6
McMurray - 80.2
Allmendinger - 78.2
Logano - 78.1

C-List:


Mears - 85.2
Labonte - 60.7
Ragan - 59.7
Smith - 56.2
Menard - 53.5


I just highlighted the Finishes and Laps in the Top 15 categories here, overall Driving Rating takes into account Qualifying Position, Average Running Position, and Laps Led as well.

With the ups and downs of teams in certain years its hard to look all the way back to 2007, 2008, and 2009 with weight on your choices for this week. So let's highlight the overall driving rating for JUST 2010 Phoenix:


OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:

Johnson -120.5
Ky. Busch - 117.0
Edwards - 116.1
Gordon -99.7
Kenseth - 99.3


B-List:
Newman - 110.8
Montoya - 105.3
Logano - 101.7
Martin - 86.9
Allmendinger - 86.9

Truex - 86.5
Bowyer - 86.4
Burton - 83.1
Earnhardt Jr - 78.0
Ambrose - 74.9


C-List:


Mears - 63.5
Smith - 62.4
R. Gordon - 61.6
Ragan - 60.7
Labonte - 54.1



And finally, let's compare the 2010 "Flat Tracks", Phoenix, Richmond, Loudon, and Martinsville:



OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:

Johnson -111.9
Ky. Busch - 110.3
Hamlin - 107.5
Gordon - 103.8
Harvick - 100.4

B-List:
Burton - 103.7
Bowyer - 103.6
Newman - 98.1
Montoya - 93.5
Logano - 89.0

Allmendinger - 84.1
Earnhardt Jr - 82.4
Reutimann - 82.0
McMurray - 81.3
Martin - 80.5

C-List:
Menard - 64.6
Ragan - 63.9
Mears - 55.0
Smith - 54.3
Labonte - 45.5


Now if your head isn't spinning after all of that data, take into account momentum off of Daytona and we've come up with the following team for Phoenix:



A-LIST:
JIMMIE JOHNSON (9 Starts Remaining) - L-O-C-K Lock. It doesn't matter how you manipulate the data, Johnson is #1 when it comes to Phoenix or flat tracks in general. It's not uncommon for Team 48 to have a bad race at Daytona and bounce right back, so without question, Johnson makes your A-List this week.

CARL EDWARDS (9 Starts Remaining) - The 2nd A-List spot is really up in the air, but I am going to slide Edwards in as my #2 this week ahead of JGR Busch and Hamlin. JGR was great on the flat tracks last year, but Edwards dominated the fall Phoenix race and is coming off a spectacular speed weeks. His numbers are just a touch behind the JGR boys but I'm going to give the momentum bump to Edwards.

Just Missing The Cut: Hamlin, Ky. Busch


B-LIST:
MARK MARTIN (9 Starts Remaining) - Not the best speedweeks but historically he's been outstanding here at Phoenix, 2nd overall behind Johnson. Even with his "off" year in 2010 he's still 4th best overall. Martin feels motivated to prove Lance McGrew is a good crew chief and I think he'll have a solid run this weekend. Again I'm also keeping in mind that I want to burn Martin starts early, as if McGrew doesn't turn out to be a good crew chief, he could get bounced off the pit box, and of course there is the looming Kahne swap in 2012 that could cause turmoil.

RYAN NEWMAN (9 Starts Remaining) -  Again, another driver that did not have a fantastic speedweeks, but I like him here at Phoenix. Won the spring race in a late race shuffle, and most important to me, he's an outstanding qualifier. With passing and pit road selection at a premium at Phoenix, give me the qualifying Rocket with a slot on the B-List.

JUAN PABLO MONTOYA (9 Starts Remaining) - See above reasoning. Montoya is another qualifying ace that I'd like to have loaded and ready to go for this week. He dropped and egg in qualifying in the fall race last year but drove through the pack to a solid finish, and he was shockingly consistent on the flat tracks last year. The Target car makes the team.

JOEY LOGANO (9 Starts Remaining) - Logano is a bit of a wild card for me. With JGRs strong performance at the flat tracks and Hamlin/Kyle just barely missing my A-List I feel like I have to roll with at least 1 JGR guy. This is the "gut feeling" pick of my B-List for sure.

Just Missing The Cut: Bowyer, Burton, Allmendinger

For at least this week, I'm jumping off the RCR bandwagon. They were heavy favorites for the 500 and with an overall disappointing effort I will wait to see what kind of rebound this team can pull off. They were great on the flat tracks last year, but their weakest flat track is Phoenix. So I am rolling with the team above.



C-LIST:
DAVID RAGAN (9 Starts Remaining) - No one on the C-List stands out this week, and even though it go against the "momentum" theory since Ragan threw away a Daytona 500 victory, I'm putting him in the lineup this week. I need 9 starts out of Ragan, and I've said from the pre-season, if Trevor Bayne impresses and Ragan does not, Ragan could be bounced from the 6 ride before the end of the year....and if you haven't noticed....Trevor Bayne has been impressing...I'm using my Ragan starts early this season.

BOBBY LABONTE (9 Starts Remaining) - Although he's bounced around from ride-to-ride over the past few years I believe Labonte and JTG feel like they've got a good thing for 2011, and the momentum of a very strong Daytona will carry into Phoenix. Ambrose was pretty sporty here at Phoenix in the 47 so I'm giving this group a shot in my C.

Just Missing The Cut: Smith, Bayne


The major warning in the C would be to NOT use Trevor Bayne. No way should he be on your team this week. Everyone and their brother will jump on Bayne's bandwagon and throw him in their C-List this week, but they'll be a week too late. Let's not forget he's got to focus on a Nationwide car as well, he'll be making his 3rd ever Cup start, on a track he's only raced to a 20th place finish on in the Nationwide series last weekend, and the entire eyes of the cup garage will be on him. Pressure? You bet. I'm letting the 500 hangover end before I put Bayne back into my lineup.