Daytona 500 - LOCKDOWN

Due to travel with work this week, I am posting my lockdown early and there will be no live chat for this weeks race. I encourage everyone to visit www.fantasynascarpreview.com at 11:00 AM EST to join their live chat and get all the expert analysis leading up to the 500.

There are still more practices to be run, and you don't have to lock down your starters until the green flag drops on Sunday. Since I won't be able to post after today I'll give you 1 or 2 names to watch for in final practice and you'll be on your own to decide who's better. To help you decide I've broken it down like this:

- DON'T put too much weight into final practice, most guys are just breaking in a new engine and making sure everything is tight. The guys that are good are not going to risk being in a wreck just to run some practice laps, it's the guys who are struggling who will be out there turning laps and might end up at the top of the speed charts.

- DO watch to make sure no one goes to a backup car or has to drop to the rear for changes. Starting position, oddly enough, is going to be somewhat important here, as the leaders can break away and put cars laps down in a hurry.

- DO listen to driver and crew chief comments, especially shy away from anyone who is struggling with overheating issues.


The following drivers are listed in order of how confident I am to start them, top to bottom:


A-LIST:
29 - KEVIN HARVICK - No surprise here, RCR cars are the strongest out there and if all 3 survive til the end of the race they are going to be nearly impossible to beat with the new drafting style. Being on the same channel as a team mate seems to be a great advantage as you can coordinate your swaps and blocks.

22 - KURT BUSCH - The performance is better on the 22 than the 29, but for a driver to win the Shootout, his duel, and the 500 would be pretty spectacular. What I don't like is the 22 potentially not having a dancing partner at the end of the race. Brad Keselowski struggled in his Duel and there aren't any other competitive Dodges in the field that will be loyal to Kurt at the end of the 500. I originally bought into Busch, but watching the replay of the Shootouts Harvick was so close to the performance level of Busch and with Harvick having strong team mates I will take the 29.


I'm benching Hendrick Motorsports and Tony Stewart. Hendrick cars are fair but not race winners, I think Trevor Bayne made Jeff Gordon look better than he really was in the 2nd duel. Stewart has not shown the kind of performance I expected and it reared it's ugly head again in the duel with performance and overheating issues, he's off the team this week. Roush Fenway Racing is also on the bench, the Fords are outstanding pushers and could potentially nab you a solid finish, but they can't lead a pack that well (Harvick made Kenseth look better than he was). Edwards and Biffle were teamed up in the 2nd Duel and couldn't really contend for the lead, then dropped off at the end of the race.


B-LIST:
31 - JEFF BURTON - Lock, almost to the point where even if he were to go to the rear in a backup car I would still consider starting him. He had one of the strongest cars at the Fall Talladega race and that has rolled right through speedweeks. If he doesn't get run over from behind he's smart enough to keep his nose clean and out of trouble until the end. I like using the 31 right here and now.

56 - MARTIN TRUEX JR. - Here's a team that came out of left field on me, MWR. However looking back it should not come as a huge surprise, again another team that was strong at the Fall Talladega race and with the new rules package they seem to have it figured out better than many of the other options in the B. Again 2 strong team mates all starting towards the front of the field is also a big plus.

00 - DAVID REUTIMANN - See above. I'm giving the very slight nod to Truex to be on the starting team because of his previous plate track performance and his starting position.

1 - JAMIE McMURRAY - McMurray is very fast but he is also all over the map as far as performance. There were times where he could blast right through the field and push anyone he wanted out in front, other tiems he was hopelessly stuck in the rear of the pack. A bad pit stop forced him to the rear where he could get nothing going, and almost lost a lap to the leaders. Slight overheating issues as well with both Earnhardt-Ganassi cars also has me a little concerned.

42 - JUAN PABLO MONTOYA - See above, a mirror image of his team mate, seems to have it down a little better but the overheating issues still remain a big red flag to me.


Again I am omitting Clint Bowyer and Joey Logano. Bowyer is going to be very strong but I just can't risk the stud in the B-List on a plate track, I will get 9 quality starts out of him elsewhere. Logano was decent but him going to the back and me wanting to start-save him as well, he gets the bench.

I'm benching Kasey Kahne/Brian Vickers as well as Mark Martin/Dale Earnhardt Jr.  The Red Bull cars are off. Kahne is decent as a leader but can't push to save his life, Vickers isn't that strong pushing or leading. Both Martin and Junior are down on speed and slight overheating issues has be also bailing on these guys for the 500. No reason to start Junior at all now, many people will auto-plug him into their lineup but with him starting at the rear and without performance this is a great opportunity to make up for other players lack of knowledge.

C-LIST:
78 - REGAN SMITH - Pretty much a lock minus losing a car in final practice. Another RCR affiliated guy who's a great plate racer and a great pusher AND leader in the draft. I think he will be right there with the RCR guys during the race as pseudo-team mates. Some might argue that you could start-save Regan for another track but I am rolling with him as I think his performance is a good bit ahead of the rest of the C-List field.


15 - MICHAEL WALTRIP - Solid but I don't have as much confidence in Waltrip as I do in Regan. Waltrip has not been that great as a plate racer now that he's cut back to part-time. He is also a guy who I think will be more of a pusher getting his team mates out front rather than going for the win himself.

09 - BILL ELLIOTT - He was much more racey than I thought he would be in the 1st Duel before dropping to the rear. I fear that the "dropping to the rear and riding around to stay out of trouble" strategy will backfire big time, as a long green flag run could put you multiple laps down if you don't have a strong drafting partner.

21 - TREVOR BAYNE - Bayne made the C-List choice easy with his late wreck in the duel. Love the Fords here but not enough to start any of them. No idea how strong the Wood Brothers backup car is, and coupled with Bayne's inexperience I'm bailing off the Bayne Bandwagon for this week.