After a couple of devastating weeks due to wrecks and blown motors, we're hoping for an uneventful day in Las Vegas (uneventful and Las Vegas seems unlikely!)
Looking at the Loop Data, Las Vegas is a hard track to gauge performance on since it is somewhat unique with its progressive banking (and the cup series only visiting there once a year). So we will first compare the past 3 years at Las Vegas alone (all races with the COT):
AVERAGE FINISH:
A-List:
Kevin Harvick - 6th
Jeff Burton - 6th
Greg Biffle - 7th
Kyle Busch - 9th
Carl Edwards - 10th
B-List:
Dale Earnhardt Jr - 9th
Kasey Kahne - 9th
Joey Logano - 10th
Clint Bowyer - 13th
Marcos Ambrose - 17th
David Reuitmann - 18th
Mark Martin - 18th
Ryan Newman - 19th
C-List:
Travis Kvapil - 16th
Bobby Labonte - 20th
David Gilliland - 22nd
Casey Mears - 22nd
David Ragan - 24th
% of LAPS in TOP 15:
A-List:
Jeff Gordon - 95%
Carl Edwards - 93%
Greg Biffle - 90%
Kyle Busch - 85%
Kevin Harvick - 79%
B-List:
Jeff Burton - 79%
Dale Earnhardt Jr - 75%
Mark Martin - 75%
Joey Logano - 65%
Ryan Newman - 53%
Clint Bowyer - 45%
Kasey Kahne - 43%
David Reuitmann - 41%
C-List:
Bobby Labonte - 47%
Travis Kvapil - 19%
David Ragan - 17%
Paul Menard - 12%
Robby Gordon - 6%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Jeff Gordon -119
Greg Biffle - 112
Kyle Busch - 107
Kevin Harvick - 106
Carl Edwards - 106
B-List:
Jeff Burton - 103
Dale Earnhardt Jr - 96
Mark Martin - 94
Joey Logano -83
Kasey Kahne - 78
Ryan Newman - 75
Clint Bowyer - 71
Martin Truex Jr - 67
C-List:
Bobby Labonte - 74
Travis Kvapil - 62
David Ragan - 62
Casey Mears - 59
Paul Menard - 57
Expanding our search to the other track with progressive banking, let's include the last 3 seasons at Homestead-Miami Speedway combined with the last 3 years in Las Vegas:
AVERAGE FINISH:
A-List:
Jeff Gordon - 4th
Carl Edwards - 7th
Greg Biffle - 10th
Jimmie Johnson - 13th
Denny Hamlin - 13th
B-List:
Kasey Kahne - 9th
Clint Bowyer - 11th
Jeff Burton - 15th
Martin Truex Jr - 16th
Mark Martin - 16th
A.J. Allmendinger - 17th
Jamie McMurray - 18th
Ryan Newman - 18th
C-List:
Bill Elliott - 14th
Casey Mears - 21st
Travis Kvapil - 22nd
Bobby Labonte - 24th
David Gilliland - 25th
% of LAPS in TOP 15:
A-List:
Carl Edwards - 90%
Kevin Harvick - 87%
Kyle Busch - 82%
Jeff Gordon - 76%
Jimmie Johnson - 74%
B-List:
Mark Martin - 76%
Jeff Burton - 67%
Clint Bowyer - 55%
Jamie McMurray - 53%
Ryan Newman - 49%
Martin Truex Jr - 48%
Dale Earnhardt Jr - 48%
David Reuitmann - 46%
C-List:
David Ragan - 38%
Bobby Labonte - 24%
Casey Mears - 23%
Bill Elliot - 11%
David Gilliland - 10%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Carl Edwards -116
Kevin Harvick - 111
Jimmie Johnson - 104
Jeff Gordon - 102
Kyle Busch - 99
B-List:
Jeff Burton - 96
Mark Martin - 91
Martin Truex Jr - 84
Clint Bowyer - 81
Kasey Kahne - 80
Jamie McMurray - 78
Dale Earnhardt Jr - 77
Ryan Newman - 74
C-List:
David Ragan - 69
Bill Elliott - 67
Casey Mears - 65
Bobby Labonte - 59
Paul Menard - 55
So taking into account the loop data above, some of the other 1.5 mile tracks, momentum, and a few other wild card factors, this is the team we are rolling with going into Las Vegas:
A-LIST:
CARL EDWARDS (8 Starts Remaining) - Edwards name appears at the top of many of the Loop Data provided above, factor in his performance at the other 1.5 mile tracks and he gets the nod as one of our A-Listers for this week. Even though he had a bad finish, his car was (going to be) dominate at Phoenix, and Vegas is a typically Roush strong track.
JEFF GORDON (9 Starts Remaining) - The other name that appears on the top of the Loop Data is Jeff Gordon, and even though his 1.5 mile performance has been up and down, a whole new team/crew chief seem to have him back on the right track. I'm riding the momentum wave on the 24 who led 219 laps here last year.
Kyle Busch and Kurt Busch miss the cut. It's their hometown track, and I think Kurt Busch will far outperform his pretty dismal Loop Data numbers, but I can't get behind either driver as a race winner at this style of track. Jimmie Johnson and Greg Biffle are also choices to consider here, but I still rank their team mates above in front of them.
B-LIST:
JEFF BURTON (8 Starts Remaining) - Burton's is screaming downhill on a massive slide, most of it to no fault of his own, but the frustration has to be overwhelming. His numbers are great here, we need to gets some starts out of Burton, now, so I'll give him a shot here in my B-List since his numbers are pretty darn impressive.
KASEY KAHNE (8 Starts Remaining) - A mirror image of Jeff Gordon, but this time in he B-List. Kahne has decent numbers here, even better numbers if you consider the rest of the 1.5 mile tracks, and I plan on riding the Red Bull momentum until he proves me wrong.
JOEY LOGANO (8 Starts Remaining) - He's only got 2 starts here, but a 6th and a 13th have be hoping that he will be bounce back this week in a big way, factor in some Top 10s at the other 1.5 mile tracks and he gets a slot on the B-List for Vegas.
CLINT BOWYER (9 Starts Remaining) - I need to bounce back in points so I am rounding out my field with studs. I've saved Clint Bowyer the last 2 weeks, but not anymore. I still feel like I can get better value out of Clint at other tracks, so I will still be somewhat cautious when it comes to giving him the actual start, but he at least gets the consideration this week in the B.
Dale Earnhardt Jr and Mark Martin miss the list this week. I have Bowyer ever so slighty in front of Junior this week as I see Bowyer being motivated to have a good run to bounce back up in the standings. Martin's stats are great here but I have no confidence in the team. Heck Mark was out of his car, undressed, and giving handshakes to Jeff Gordon right as Gordon rolled into victory lane, not exactly the normal Mark Martin all about his team de-brief that I would of liked to see.
C-LIST:
DAVID RAGAN (9 Starts Remaining) - C-List is especially dismal this week, Regan Smith and Paul Menard are almost no where to be found in the Loop Data. With Roush being fairly strong here at Vegas, and my need to roll out a Ragan start, he'll get consideration this week in the C-List.
TREVOR BAYNE (9 Starts Remaining) - Talk about a reality check, wadding up 3 cars in Vegas will get the spotlight off Bayne and that's a good thing. Again Roush being strong here, Bayne's impressive performance at Texas last year, I'd love to use a Bayne start here....that is IF he goes to Vegas! The team did not have 2 new cars prepared to go to Vegas, they were going to take the Phoenix cars and...well...you saw how that ended up. Check back here for official word on Bayne's status for Las Vegas, if he's going, he's on the team.
If Bayne bails out on Vegas, I'll be looking at Paul Menard, even though his loop data is terrible his other 1.5 mile tracks make up for it a little bit, and the momentum of 2 decent weeks will carry him into the C-List if we are sans Bayne this week.
Monday, February 28, 2011
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Phoenix 1 - Wrap Up
A very rough day at Phoenix with a lot of heavy hitters going down hard due to early carnage.
Our team scored 189 points total with: 99 - 4 - 20 - 78
Carl Edwards was the right choice in the A-List, and keep in mind heavily if you've still got starts with him when it comes to the fall race in Phoenix. He had the best car, was passing cars left and right on a track that is tough to pass on, and he was fast out front. Kyle Busch ended up killing Edwards run (I did say put in Kyle over Carl, so if you had that option and followed that advice, lucky you).
Once again, Jimmie Johnson "not that good" still turns into a good run, never forget a bad Jimmie Johnson still beats a lot of good cars at the end of the day.
Keep in mind the 99, 18, 24, 48, and 22 as we go into other flat tracks later this year.
It was a shame we never got to see what Joey Logano had, he went down a cylinder so early that we never got to see how he will contender on the flat tracks later this year. Kasey Kahne did about what I expected, maybe even a little better. Wasn't a winning car but it was a solid Top-10 car all day and they kept working on it just to keep it in contention.
Ryan Newman will also be one to watch on the other flat tracks, Stewart-Haas stepped up their program as whole and Newman will be a lock for the next flat track. Also very impressed with RPM, they over-performed for what I thought they had for this race. Martin Truex Jr and Brad Keselowski also log solid runs.
Jeff Burton and Clint Bowyer were a little off, and I will be burning Jeff Burton starts early as frustration continues to mount in the 31 camp after another bad finish.
The C-List was a bit of a surprise as David Ragan was terrible even before getting caught up in the big one and eventually knocking the front stretch wall down. And remember that was with a very confident Ragan and "the best car he's ever had". Regan Smith was using full advantage of his good pit stall early and would of been the class of the C-List until he was caught in the wreck. Paul Menard is doing well with his new RCR team and he will be another to watch as the upcoming flat tracks roll in. Bobby Labonte also somehow fixed his damage very quickly to a 21st place run. And lets not overlook the name David Gilliland, Front Row invested a lot of money and bought a lot of left-over RPM equipment, Gilliland could be what Regan Smith was to us in 2010, a solid Top 25 with Top 15-20 potential.
We will post our early thoughts on Las Vegas on Tuesday to get you prepared as the west coast tour rolls on.
Our team scored 189 points total with: 99 - 4 - 20 - 78
Carl Edwards was the right choice in the A-List, and keep in mind heavily if you've still got starts with him when it comes to the fall race in Phoenix. He had the best car, was passing cars left and right on a track that is tough to pass on, and he was fast out front. Kyle Busch ended up killing Edwards run (I did say put in Kyle over Carl, so if you had that option and followed that advice, lucky you).
Once again, Jimmie Johnson "not that good" still turns into a good run, never forget a bad Jimmie Johnson still beats a lot of good cars at the end of the day.
Keep in mind the 99, 18, 24, 48, and 22 as we go into other flat tracks later this year.
It was a shame we never got to see what Joey Logano had, he went down a cylinder so early that we never got to see how he will contender on the flat tracks later this year. Kasey Kahne did about what I expected, maybe even a little better. Wasn't a winning car but it was a solid Top-10 car all day and they kept working on it just to keep it in contention.
Ryan Newman will also be one to watch on the other flat tracks, Stewart-Haas stepped up their program as whole and Newman will be a lock for the next flat track. Also very impressed with RPM, they over-performed for what I thought they had for this race. Martin Truex Jr and Brad Keselowski also log solid runs.
Jeff Burton and Clint Bowyer were a little off, and I will be burning Jeff Burton starts early as frustration continues to mount in the 31 camp after another bad finish.
The C-List was a bit of a surprise as David Ragan was terrible even before getting caught up in the big one and eventually knocking the front stretch wall down. And remember that was with a very confident Ragan and "the best car he's ever had". Regan Smith was using full advantage of his good pit stall early and would of been the class of the C-List until he was caught in the wreck. Paul Menard is doing well with his new RCR team and he will be another to watch as the upcoming flat tracks roll in. Bobby Labonte also somehow fixed his damage very quickly to a 21st place run. And lets not overlook the name David Gilliland, Front Row invested a lot of money and bought a lot of left-over RPM equipment, Gilliland could be what Regan Smith was to us in 2010, a solid Top 25 with Top 15-20 potential.
We will post our early thoughts on Las Vegas on Tuesday to get you prepared as the west coast tour rolls on.
Saturday, February 26, 2011
PHOENIX 1 - FINAL LINEUP
Qualifying is over and it's time to lock-in the lineup for the Subway Fresh Fit 500k at Phoenix.
Quick refresher, in my picks we have the following to choose from:
48 or 99 in the A-List
20, 4, 39, 1 in the B-List
78 or 6 in the C-List
Keep in mind that track position is king here with passing being limited. A good pit stall selection is also vital to success, and the winners come from the first 10 stalls that always seem to have a slight advantage due to their easier entrance/exit angles. For reference here is the pit road selections for tomorrow's race:
And your team is...
A-LIST:
CARL EDWARDS (9 Starts Remaining) - Johnson's numbers are very stout here. I bought into the hype yesterday in practice when they showed no speed but JJ said the car was good. Now with the 48 buried in the pack and passing and pit road being so difficult, the 48 has to be saved for a better day. Edwards will nab me bonus points for leading a lap, and potential to also get bonus points for leading the most laps since most Phoenix races have a long green run early.
If you have Kyle Busch on your roster in the A-List, I'd start him here. He's on fire this weekend, he's even mentioned in some interviews he's got a few things figured out with the tire compound they've brought and his race experience from the Truck and Nationwide races. JGR as a whole is very strong on the flat tracks and as long as Kyle keeps his head on strait for all 312 laps, he'll be a contender for victory lane.
B-LIST:
JOEY LOGANO (9 Starts Remaining) -JGR is strong on the flat tracks and Logano is quickly rising in the ranks on the short tracks as well. Great starting position and a great pit stall is going to give him an advantage all day and I look for the 20 to be a Top-10 car once they go to the pay window.
KASEY KAHNE (9 Starts Remaining) - Kahne is not that great here at Phoenix, but he's got confidence and a great starting position. He even commented that this is the best car he's ever had a Phoenix. I'm not a huge fan of him taking a pit stall towards the entrance of pit road (even though he's got a big opening in front of him) but it's not enough for me to put him on the bench.
I'm putting Ryan Newman and Jamie McMurray on the bench this week. Newman starting outside the Top 10 makes his life a little difficult to start, and then pitting behind the 2 in the middle of pit road is the final kicker for me to bench. McMurray has a decent car, probably a Top-15 car which will be solid but I'm rolling the dice and putting Kahne in with the 4 car having Top-10 potential.
I'd also bench Clint Bowyer and Jeff Burton, they'll be solid Top-15 cars much like McMurray but you can get better value out of RCR cars at other tracks where they will be Top-10 runners. Mark Martin and Juan Pablo Montoya are all over the map, hard to tell exactly what they've got but with them starting deep in the field, even if they do have good cars, it will be a struggle to make it to the front.
C-LIST:
REGAN SMITH - (8 Starts Remaining) - I'm very torn on the 78 Vs. 6 choice, as I want to use my David Ragan starts early. Ragan has a strong car here, probably the best he's ever had, and Roush is performing well this weekend. But I'm also a believer in striking while the iron is hot, and right now, Regan Smith is hot. He's oozing with confidence, has a great car, a better starting position, and an even better pit stall than the 6. Barely, just barely, Regan gets the start for the 2nd strait week in my C-List.
I'd start the 78 and the 6 before I'd start Paul Menard. Much like his RCR team mates, you will need 9 starts out of Menard and you can get better value out of Menard at other tracks.
We will be answering questions LIVE on the Yahoo Message Board leading all the way up to the green flag. Feel free to post your questions here as well on the blog. Also check out www.FantasyNascarPreview.com as we will be posting on their forum leading up to the race as well.
Quick refresher, in my picks we have the following to choose from:
48 or 99 in the A-List
20, 4, 39, 1 in the B-List
78 or 6 in the C-List
Keep in mind that track position is king here with passing being limited. A good pit stall selection is also vital to success, and the winners come from the first 10 stalls that always seem to have a slight advantage due to their easier entrance/exit angles. For reference here is the pit road selections for tomorrow's race:
And your team is...
A-LIST:
CARL EDWARDS (9 Starts Remaining) - Johnson's numbers are very stout here. I bought into the hype yesterday in practice when they showed no speed but JJ said the car was good. Now with the 48 buried in the pack and passing and pit road being so difficult, the 48 has to be saved for a better day. Edwards will nab me bonus points for leading a lap, and potential to also get bonus points for leading the most laps since most Phoenix races have a long green run early.
If you have Kyle Busch on your roster in the A-List, I'd start him here. He's on fire this weekend, he's even mentioned in some interviews he's got a few things figured out with the tire compound they've brought and his race experience from the Truck and Nationwide races. JGR as a whole is very strong on the flat tracks and as long as Kyle keeps his head on strait for all 312 laps, he'll be a contender for victory lane.
B-LIST:
JOEY LOGANO (9 Starts Remaining) -JGR is strong on the flat tracks and Logano is quickly rising in the ranks on the short tracks as well. Great starting position and a great pit stall is going to give him an advantage all day and I look for the 20 to be a Top-10 car once they go to the pay window.
KASEY KAHNE (9 Starts Remaining) - Kahne is not that great here at Phoenix, but he's got confidence and a great starting position. He even commented that this is the best car he's ever had a Phoenix. I'm not a huge fan of him taking a pit stall towards the entrance of pit road (even though he's got a big opening in front of him) but it's not enough for me to put him on the bench.
I'm putting Ryan Newman and Jamie McMurray on the bench this week. Newman starting outside the Top 10 makes his life a little difficult to start, and then pitting behind the 2 in the middle of pit road is the final kicker for me to bench. McMurray has a decent car, probably a Top-15 car which will be solid but I'm rolling the dice and putting Kahne in with the 4 car having Top-10 potential.
I'd also bench Clint Bowyer and Jeff Burton, they'll be solid Top-15 cars much like McMurray but you can get better value out of RCR cars at other tracks where they will be Top-10 runners. Mark Martin and Juan Pablo Montoya are all over the map, hard to tell exactly what they've got but with them starting deep in the field, even if they do have good cars, it will be a struggle to make it to the front.
C-LIST:
REGAN SMITH - (8 Starts Remaining) - I'm very torn on the 78 Vs. 6 choice, as I want to use my David Ragan starts early. Ragan has a strong car here, probably the best he's ever had, and Roush is performing well this weekend. But I'm also a believer in striking while the iron is hot, and right now, Regan Smith is hot. He's oozing with confidence, has a great car, a better starting position, and an even better pit stall than the 6. Barely, just barely, Regan gets the start for the 2nd strait week in my C-List.
I'd start the 78 and the 6 before I'd start Paul Menard. Much like his RCR team mates, you will need 9 starts out of Menard and you can get better value out of Menard at other tracks.
We will be answering questions LIVE on the Yahoo Message Board leading all the way up to the green flag. Feel free to post your questions here as well on the blog. Also check out www.FantasyNascarPreview.com as we will be posting on their forum leading up to the race as well.
Friday, February 25, 2011
PHOENIX 1 - LOCKDOWN LINEUP
After watching 2 interesting practice sessions before lockdown, the team has changed a little bit. Here is who we are rolling with, and why:
A-LIST:
JIMMIE JOHNSON (9 Starts Remaining)
CARL EDWARDS (9 Starts Remaining)
This stays the same, some people are bailing off of JJ because of a lack of performance in qualifying. I wouldn't put it past them to sandbag in practice so they get an earlier draw for qualifying. JJ even openly admitted that they are pretty good in race trim. With how strong the 48 is, "pretty good" is good enough for me.
Edwards edges out Hamlin on the speed charts, Roush momentum keeps on rolling and I believe the 99 will be a Top 10 starter and should stay there all day.
JGR is close but misses the team. Kyle Busch is good on the speed charts but I'm not buying into him at Phoenix, just doesn't have the previous performance here to convince me to put him on the team. Hamlin really fell off in the 2nd session and will also miss the cut this week.
B-LIST:
RYAN NEWMAN (9 Starts Remaining)
JOEY LOGANO (9 Starts Remaining)
KASEY KAHNE (9 Starts Remaining)
JAMIE McMURRAY (9 Starts Remaining)
Newman and Kahne both look very sporty in Q-Trim, potential Qualifying points out of them would be great and both of them look fairly stout in race trim. Logano's numbers have been a little off but his flat track numbers have been on the rise so he will at least get a shot at being on the team this week. McMurray is a bit of a wild card, we've seen him pull out some great qualifying efforts and he really picked it up in the 2nd practice session.
Mark Martin is out to lunch and "doesn't know how he can fix his car", yikes. Martin Truex Jr. runs decent here but I just don't have the confidence in him to get me the solid finish that I need. I'm looking for Top 10 guys here in my B-List and I don't see Truex being better than about 15th. Allmendinger brushed the wall twice in practice so he also gets the boot. Montoya was also close to making the team but he was all over the charts in practice and I just don't know exactly what he's going to have come race time (Montoya was absolutely terrible in qualifying here in the fall race).
C-LIST:
DAVID RAGAN (9 Starts Remaining)
REGAN SMITH (8 Starts Remaining)
These 2 are the class of the C-List. Ragan is very impressive both in qualifying and race trim, likewise for Regan Smith who is just oozing with confidence and is very happy with his race car. Paul Menard is also over-performing but his past results here makes me bench him this week. Bobby Labonte has been terribly disappointing and I barely see him inside the Top 30 by the end of the day Sunday.
Check back with us on Saturday evening for our final lockdown, who makes the starting lineup and who rides the pine! Don't forget to check out the discussion at www.FantasyNascarPreview.com Forum this weekend, they also have an experts chat Sunday that we will also be a part of.
A-LIST:
JIMMIE JOHNSON (9 Starts Remaining)
CARL EDWARDS (9 Starts Remaining)
This stays the same, some people are bailing off of JJ because of a lack of performance in qualifying. I wouldn't put it past them to sandbag in practice so they get an earlier draw for qualifying. JJ even openly admitted that they are pretty good in race trim. With how strong the 48 is, "pretty good" is good enough for me.
Edwards edges out Hamlin on the speed charts, Roush momentum keeps on rolling and I believe the 99 will be a Top 10 starter and should stay there all day.
JGR is close but misses the team. Kyle Busch is good on the speed charts but I'm not buying into him at Phoenix, just doesn't have the previous performance here to convince me to put him on the team. Hamlin really fell off in the 2nd session and will also miss the cut this week.
B-LIST:
RYAN NEWMAN (9 Starts Remaining)
JOEY LOGANO (9 Starts Remaining)
KASEY KAHNE (9 Starts Remaining)
JAMIE McMURRAY (9 Starts Remaining)
Newman and Kahne both look very sporty in Q-Trim, potential Qualifying points out of them would be great and both of them look fairly stout in race trim. Logano's numbers have been a little off but his flat track numbers have been on the rise so he will at least get a shot at being on the team this week. McMurray is a bit of a wild card, we've seen him pull out some great qualifying efforts and he really picked it up in the 2nd practice session.
Mark Martin is out to lunch and "doesn't know how he can fix his car", yikes. Martin Truex Jr. runs decent here but I just don't have the confidence in him to get me the solid finish that I need. I'm looking for Top 10 guys here in my B-List and I don't see Truex being better than about 15th. Allmendinger brushed the wall twice in practice so he also gets the boot. Montoya was also close to making the team but he was all over the charts in practice and I just don't know exactly what he's going to have come race time (Montoya was absolutely terrible in qualifying here in the fall race).
C-LIST:
DAVID RAGAN (9 Starts Remaining)
REGAN SMITH (8 Starts Remaining)
These 2 are the class of the C-List. Ragan is very impressive both in qualifying and race trim, likewise for Regan Smith who is just oozing with confidence and is very happy with his race car. Paul Menard is also over-performing but his past results here makes me bench him this week. Bobby Labonte has been terribly disappointing and I barely see him inside the Top 30 by the end of the day Sunday.
Check back with us on Saturday evening for our final lockdown, who makes the starting lineup and who rides the pine! Don't forget to check out the discussion at www.FantasyNascarPreview.com Forum this weekend, they also have an experts chat Sunday that we will also be a part of.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
PHOENIX 1 - Data & Lineup
Welcome geekers. Once again sorry for the lack of posts leading up to the Daytona 500 as I was out of town and away from the computer from Friday-Sunday. If you followed my advice, congrats and welcome to the 43rd percentile! I scored 200 points on the nose with Harvick, Burton, Truex, & Smith.
Now that we've moved past the roll of the dice race, it's onto the "real" start of the season as we head west to Phoenix. This is where you can make up ground on those who won the Daytona Roulette game, or you can expand your early lead.
Let's take a look at some Loop Data from the last 4 years (8 races) at Phoenix...which takes into account every "COT" race at the track. Here are the numbers:
AVERAGE FINISH:
A-List:
Johnson - 3rd
Hamlin - 10th
Ky. Busch - 10th
Biffle - 11th
Edwards - 12th
B-List:
Martin - 7th
Burton - 12th
Bowyer - 14th
Logano - 14th
Truex - 15th
Ambrose - 15th
McMurray - 16th
Montoya - 17th
Allmendinger - 19th
Newman - 20th
C-List:
Labonte - 22nd
Mears - 24th
Ragan - 25th
Menard - 27th
Smith - 27th
% of LAPS in TOP 15:
A-List:
Johnson - 99%
Ky. Busch - 94%
Gordon - 80%
Hamlin - 79%
Stewart - 78%
B-List:
Truex - 72%
Newman - 70%
Martin - 67%
Burton - 66%
Allmendinger - 66%
Bowyer - 57%
Montoya - 52%
Earnhardt Jr - 48%
Ambrose - 39%
Logano - 36%
C-List:
Mears - 26%
Ragan - 14%
Labonte - 11%
Smith - 9%
Menard - 5%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Johnson -149.9
Hamlin - 103.3
Ky. Busch - 101.2
Edwards - 99.3
Gordon - 99.3
B-List:
Martin - 145.6
Truex - 91.5
Newman - 90.4
Burton - 86.9
Bowyer - 84.6
Earnhardt Jr - 83.6
Montoya - 81.6
McMurray - 80.2
Allmendinger - 78.2
Logano - 78.1
C-List:
Mears - 85.2
Labonte - 60.7
Ragan - 59.7
Smith - 56.2
Menard - 53.5
I just highlighted the Finishes and Laps in the Top 15 categories here, overall Driving Rating takes into account Qualifying Position, Average Running Position, and Laps Led as well.
With the ups and downs of teams in certain years its hard to look all the way back to 2007, 2008, and 2009 with weight on your choices for this week. So let's highlight the overall driving rating for JUST 2010 Phoenix:
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Johnson -120.5
Ky. Busch - 117.0
Edwards - 116.1
Gordon -99.7
Kenseth - 99.3
B-List:
Newman - 110.8
Montoya - 105.3
Logano - 101.7
Martin - 86.9
Allmendinger - 86.9
Truex - 86.5
Bowyer - 86.4
Burton - 83.1
Earnhardt Jr - 78.0
Ambrose - 74.9
C-List:
Mears - 63.5
Smith - 62.4
R. Gordon - 61.6
Ragan - 60.7
Labonte - 54.1
And finally, let's compare the 2010 "Flat Tracks", Phoenix, Richmond, Loudon, and Martinsville:
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Johnson -111.9
Ky. Busch - 110.3
Hamlin - 107.5
Gordon - 103.8
Harvick - 100.4
B-List:
Burton - 103.7
Bowyer - 103.6
Newman - 98.1
Montoya - 93.5
Logano - 89.0
Allmendinger - 84.1
Earnhardt Jr - 82.4
Reutimann - 82.0
McMurray - 81.3
Martin - 80.5
C-List:
Menard - 64.6
Ragan - 63.9
Mears - 55.0
Smith - 54.3
Labonte - 45.5
Now if your head isn't spinning after all of that data, take into account momentum off of Daytona and we've come up with the following team for Phoenix:
A-LIST:
JIMMIE JOHNSON (9 Starts Remaining) - L-O-C-K Lock. It doesn't matter how you manipulate the data, Johnson is #1 when it comes to Phoenix or flat tracks in general. It's not uncommon for Team 48 to have a bad race at Daytona and bounce right back, so without question, Johnson makes your A-List this week.
CARL EDWARDS (9 Starts Remaining) - The 2nd A-List spot is really up in the air, but I am going to slide Edwards in as my #2 this week ahead of JGR Busch and Hamlin. JGR was great on the flat tracks last year, but Edwards dominated the fall Phoenix race and is coming off a spectacular speed weeks. His numbers are just a touch behind the JGR boys but I'm going to give the momentum bump to Edwards.
Just Missing The Cut: Hamlin, Ky. Busch
B-LIST:
MARK MARTIN (9 Starts Remaining) - Not the best speedweeks but historically he's been outstanding here at Phoenix, 2nd overall behind Johnson. Even with his "off" year in 2010 he's still 4th best overall. Martin feels motivated to prove Lance McGrew is a good crew chief and I think he'll have a solid run this weekend. Again I'm also keeping in mind that I want to burn Martin starts early, as if McGrew doesn't turn out to be a good crew chief, he could get bounced off the pit box, and of course there is the looming Kahne swap in 2012 that could cause turmoil.
RYAN NEWMAN (9 Starts Remaining) - Again, another driver that did not have a fantastic speedweeks, but I like him here at Phoenix. Won the spring race in a late race shuffle, and most important to me, he's an outstanding qualifier. With passing and pit road selection at a premium at Phoenix, give me the qualifying Rocket with a slot on the B-List.
JUAN PABLO MONTOYA (9 Starts Remaining) - See above reasoning. Montoya is another qualifying ace that I'd like to have loaded and ready to go for this week. He dropped and egg in qualifying in the fall race last year but drove through the pack to a solid finish, and he was shockingly consistent on the flat tracks last year. The Target car makes the team.
JOEY LOGANO (9 Starts Remaining) - Logano is a bit of a wild card for me. With JGRs strong performance at the flat tracks and Hamlin/Kyle just barely missing my A-List I feel like I have to roll with at least 1 JGR guy. This is the "gut feeling" pick of my B-List for sure.
Just Missing The Cut: Bowyer, Burton, Allmendinger
For at least this week, I'm jumping off the RCR bandwagon. They were heavy favorites for the 500 and with an overall disappointing effort I will wait to see what kind of rebound this team can pull off. They were great on the flat tracks last year, but their weakest flat track is Phoenix. So I am rolling with the team above.
C-LIST:
DAVID RAGAN (9 Starts Remaining) - No one on the C-List stands out this week, and even though it go against the "momentum" theory since Ragan threw away a Daytona 500 victory, I'm putting him in the lineup this week. I need 9 starts out of Ragan, and I've said from the pre-season, if Trevor Bayne impresses and Ragan does not, Ragan could be bounced from the 6 ride before the end of the year....and if you haven't noticed....Trevor Bayne has been impressing...I'm using my Ragan starts early this season.
BOBBY LABONTE (9 Starts Remaining) - Although he's bounced around from ride-to-ride over the past few years I believe Labonte and JTG feel like they've got a good thing for 2011, and the momentum of a very strong Daytona will carry into Phoenix. Ambrose was pretty sporty here at Phoenix in the 47 so I'm giving this group a shot in my C.
Just Missing The Cut: Smith, Bayne
The major warning in the C would be to NOT use Trevor Bayne. No way should he be on your team this week. Everyone and their brother will jump on Bayne's bandwagon and throw him in their C-List this week, but they'll be a week too late. Let's not forget he's got to focus on a Nationwide car as well, he'll be making his 3rd ever Cup start, on a track he's only raced to a 20th place finish on in the Nationwide series last weekend, and the entire eyes of the cup garage will be on him. Pressure? You bet. I'm letting the 500 hangover end before I put Bayne back into my lineup.
Now that we've moved past the roll of the dice race, it's onto the "real" start of the season as we head west to Phoenix. This is where you can make up ground on those who won the Daytona Roulette game, or you can expand your early lead.
Let's take a look at some Loop Data from the last 4 years (8 races) at Phoenix...which takes into account every "COT" race at the track. Here are the numbers:
AVERAGE FINISH:
A-List:
Johnson - 3rd
Hamlin - 10th
Ky. Busch - 10th
Biffle - 11th
Edwards - 12th
B-List:
Martin - 7th
Burton - 12th
Bowyer - 14th
Logano - 14th
Truex - 15th
Ambrose - 15th
McMurray - 16th
Montoya - 17th
Allmendinger - 19th
Newman - 20th
C-List:
Labonte - 22nd
Mears - 24th
Ragan - 25th
Menard - 27th
Smith - 27th
% of LAPS in TOP 15:
A-List:
Johnson - 99%
Ky. Busch - 94%
Gordon - 80%
Hamlin - 79%
Stewart - 78%
B-List:
Truex - 72%
Newman - 70%
Martin - 67%
Burton - 66%
Allmendinger - 66%
Bowyer - 57%
Montoya - 52%
Earnhardt Jr - 48%
Ambrose - 39%
Logano - 36%
C-List:
Mears - 26%
Ragan - 14%
Labonte - 11%
Smith - 9%
Menard - 5%
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Johnson -149.9
Hamlin - 103.3
Ky. Busch - 101.2
Edwards - 99.3
Gordon - 99.3
B-List:
Martin - 145.6
Truex - 91.5
Newman - 90.4
Burton - 86.9
Bowyer - 84.6
Earnhardt Jr - 83.6
Montoya - 81.6
McMurray - 80.2
Allmendinger - 78.2
Logano - 78.1
C-List:
Mears - 85.2
Labonte - 60.7
Ragan - 59.7
Smith - 56.2
Menard - 53.5
I just highlighted the Finishes and Laps in the Top 15 categories here, overall Driving Rating takes into account Qualifying Position, Average Running Position, and Laps Led as well.
With the ups and downs of teams in certain years its hard to look all the way back to 2007, 2008, and 2009 with weight on your choices for this week. So let's highlight the overall driving rating for JUST 2010 Phoenix:
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Johnson -120.5
Ky. Busch - 117.0
Edwards - 116.1
Gordon -99.7
Kenseth - 99.3
B-List:
Newman - 110.8
Montoya - 105.3
Logano - 101.7
Martin - 86.9
Allmendinger - 86.9
Truex - 86.5
Bowyer - 86.4
Burton - 83.1
Earnhardt Jr - 78.0
Ambrose - 74.9
C-List:
Mears - 63.5
Smith - 62.4
R. Gordon - 61.6
Ragan - 60.7
Labonte - 54.1
And finally, let's compare the 2010 "Flat Tracks", Phoenix, Richmond, Loudon, and Martinsville:
OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Johnson -111.9
Ky. Busch - 110.3
Hamlin - 107.5
Gordon - 103.8
Harvick - 100.4
B-List:
Burton - 103.7
Bowyer - 103.6
Newman - 98.1
Montoya - 93.5
Logano - 89.0
Allmendinger - 84.1
Earnhardt Jr - 82.4
Reutimann - 82.0
McMurray - 81.3
Martin - 80.5
C-List:
Menard - 64.6
Ragan - 63.9
Mears - 55.0
Smith - 54.3
Labonte - 45.5
Now if your head isn't spinning after all of that data, take into account momentum off of Daytona and we've come up with the following team for Phoenix:
A-LIST:
JIMMIE JOHNSON (9 Starts Remaining) - L-O-C-K Lock. It doesn't matter how you manipulate the data, Johnson is #1 when it comes to Phoenix or flat tracks in general. It's not uncommon for Team 48 to have a bad race at Daytona and bounce right back, so without question, Johnson makes your A-List this week.
CARL EDWARDS (9 Starts Remaining) - The 2nd A-List spot is really up in the air, but I am going to slide Edwards in as my #2 this week ahead of JGR Busch and Hamlin. JGR was great on the flat tracks last year, but Edwards dominated the fall Phoenix race and is coming off a spectacular speed weeks. His numbers are just a touch behind the JGR boys but I'm going to give the momentum bump to Edwards.
Just Missing The Cut: Hamlin, Ky. Busch
B-LIST:
MARK MARTIN (9 Starts Remaining) - Not the best speedweeks but historically he's been outstanding here at Phoenix, 2nd overall behind Johnson. Even with his "off" year in 2010 he's still 4th best overall. Martin feels motivated to prove Lance McGrew is a good crew chief and I think he'll have a solid run this weekend. Again I'm also keeping in mind that I want to burn Martin starts early, as if McGrew doesn't turn out to be a good crew chief, he could get bounced off the pit box, and of course there is the looming Kahne swap in 2012 that could cause turmoil.
RYAN NEWMAN (9 Starts Remaining) - Again, another driver that did not have a fantastic speedweeks, but I like him here at Phoenix. Won the spring race in a late race shuffle, and most important to me, he's an outstanding qualifier. With passing and pit road selection at a premium at Phoenix, give me the qualifying Rocket with a slot on the B-List.
JUAN PABLO MONTOYA (9 Starts Remaining) - See above reasoning. Montoya is another qualifying ace that I'd like to have loaded and ready to go for this week. He dropped and egg in qualifying in the fall race last year but drove through the pack to a solid finish, and he was shockingly consistent on the flat tracks last year. The Target car makes the team.
JOEY LOGANO (9 Starts Remaining) - Logano is a bit of a wild card for me. With JGRs strong performance at the flat tracks and Hamlin/Kyle just barely missing my A-List I feel like I have to roll with at least 1 JGR guy. This is the "gut feeling" pick of my B-List for sure.
Just Missing The Cut: Bowyer, Burton, Allmendinger
For at least this week, I'm jumping off the RCR bandwagon. They were heavy favorites for the 500 and with an overall disappointing effort I will wait to see what kind of rebound this team can pull off. They were great on the flat tracks last year, but their weakest flat track is Phoenix. So I am rolling with the team above.
C-LIST:
DAVID RAGAN (9 Starts Remaining) - No one on the C-List stands out this week, and even though it go against the "momentum" theory since Ragan threw away a Daytona 500 victory, I'm putting him in the lineup this week. I need 9 starts out of Ragan, and I've said from the pre-season, if Trevor Bayne impresses and Ragan does not, Ragan could be bounced from the 6 ride before the end of the year....and if you haven't noticed....Trevor Bayne has been impressing...I'm using my Ragan starts early this season.
BOBBY LABONTE (9 Starts Remaining) - Although he's bounced around from ride-to-ride over the past few years I believe Labonte and JTG feel like they've got a good thing for 2011, and the momentum of a very strong Daytona will carry into Phoenix. Ambrose was pretty sporty here at Phoenix in the 47 so I'm giving this group a shot in my C.
Just Missing The Cut: Smith, Bayne
The major warning in the C would be to NOT use Trevor Bayne. No way should he be on your team this week. Everyone and their brother will jump on Bayne's bandwagon and throw him in their C-List this week, but they'll be a week too late. Let's not forget he's got to focus on a Nationwide car as well, he'll be making his 3rd ever Cup start, on a track he's only raced to a 20th place finish on in the Nationwide series last weekend, and the entire eyes of the cup garage will be on him. Pressure? You bet. I'm letting the 500 hangover end before I put Bayne back into my lineup.
Friday, February 18, 2011
Daytona 500 - LOCKDOWN
Due to travel with work this week, I am posting my lockdown early and there will be no live chat for this weeks race. I encourage everyone to visit www.fantasynascarpreview.com at 11:00 AM EST to join their live chat and get all the expert analysis leading up to the 500.
There are still more practices to be run, and you don't have to lock down your starters until the green flag drops on Sunday. Since I won't be able to post after today I'll give you 1 or 2 names to watch for in final practice and you'll be on your own to decide who's better. To help you decide I've broken it down like this:
- DON'T put too much weight into final practice, most guys are just breaking in a new engine and making sure everything is tight. The guys that are good are not going to risk being in a wreck just to run some practice laps, it's the guys who are struggling who will be out there turning laps and might end up at the top of the speed charts.
- DO watch to make sure no one goes to a backup car or has to drop to the rear for changes. Starting position, oddly enough, is going to be somewhat important here, as the leaders can break away and put cars laps down in a hurry.
- DO listen to driver and crew chief comments, especially shy away from anyone who is struggling with overheating issues.
The following drivers are listed in order of how confident I am to start them, top to bottom:
A-LIST:
29 - KEVIN HARVICK - No surprise here, RCR cars are the strongest out there and if all 3 survive til the end of the race they are going to be nearly impossible to beat with the new drafting style. Being on the same channel as a team mate seems to be a great advantage as you can coordinate your swaps and blocks.
22 - KURT BUSCH - The performance is better on the 22 than the 29, but for a driver to win the Shootout, his duel, and the 500 would be pretty spectacular. What I don't like is the 22 potentially not having a dancing partner at the end of the race. Brad Keselowski struggled in his Duel and there aren't any other competitive Dodges in the field that will be loyal to Kurt at the end of the 500. I originally bought into Busch, but watching the replay of the Shootouts Harvick was so close to the performance level of Busch and with Harvick having strong team mates I will take the 29.
I'm benching Hendrick Motorsports and Tony Stewart. Hendrick cars are fair but not race winners, I think Trevor Bayne made Jeff Gordon look better than he really was in the 2nd duel. Stewart has not shown the kind of performance I expected and it reared it's ugly head again in the duel with performance and overheating issues, he's off the team this week. Roush Fenway Racing is also on the bench, the Fords are outstanding pushers and could potentially nab you a solid finish, but they can't lead a pack that well (Harvick made Kenseth look better than he was). Edwards and Biffle were teamed up in the 2nd Duel and couldn't really contend for the lead, then dropped off at the end of the race.
B-LIST:
31 - JEFF BURTON - Lock, almost to the point where even if he were to go to the rear in a backup car I would still consider starting him. He had one of the strongest cars at the Fall Talladega race and that has rolled right through speedweeks. If he doesn't get run over from behind he's smart enough to keep his nose clean and out of trouble until the end. I like using the 31 right here and now.
56 - MARTIN TRUEX JR. - Here's a team that came out of left field on me, MWR. However looking back it should not come as a huge surprise, again another team that was strong at the Fall Talladega race and with the new rules package they seem to have it figured out better than many of the other options in the B. Again 2 strong team mates all starting towards the front of the field is also a big plus.
00 - DAVID REUTIMANN - See above. I'm giving the very slight nod to Truex to be on the starting team because of his previous plate track performance and his starting position.
1 - JAMIE McMURRAY - McMurray is very fast but he is also all over the map as far as performance. There were times where he could blast right through the field and push anyone he wanted out in front, other tiems he was hopelessly stuck in the rear of the pack. A bad pit stop forced him to the rear where he could get nothing going, and almost lost a lap to the leaders. Slight overheating issues as well with both Earnhardt-Ganassi cars also has me a little concerned.
42 - JUAN PABLO MONTOYA - See above, a mirror image of his team mate, seems to have it down a little better but the overheating issues still remain a big red flag to me.
Again I am omitting Clint Bowyer and Joey Logano. Bowyer is going to be very strong but I just can't risk the stud in the B-List on a plate track, I will get 9 quality starts out of him elsewhere. Logano was decent but him going to the back and me wanting to start-save him as well, he gets the bench.
I'm benching Kasey Kahne/Brian Vickers as well as Mark Martin/Dale Earnhardt Jr. The Red Bull cars are off. Kahne is decent as a leader but can't push to save his life, Vickers isn't that strong pushing or leading. Both Martin and Junior are down on speed and slight overheating issues has be also bailing on these guys for the 500. No reason to start Junior at all now, many people will auto-plug him into their lineup but with him starting at the rear and without performance this is a great opportunity to make up for other players lack of knowledge.
C-LIST:
78 - REGAN SMITH - Pretty much a lock minus losing a car in final practice. Another RCR affiliated guy who's a great plate racer and a great pusher AND leader in the draft. I think he will be right there with the RCR guys during the race as pseudo-team mates. Some might argue that you could start-save Regan for another track but I am rolling with him as I think his performance is a good bit ahead of the rest of the C-List field.
15 - MICHAEL WALTRIP - Solid but I don't have as much confidence in Waltrip as I do in Regan. Waltrip has not been that great as a plate racer now that he's cut back to part-time. He is also a guy who I think will be more of a pusher getting his team mates out front rather than going for the win himself.
09 - BILL ELLIOTT - He was much more racey than I thought he would be in the 1st Duel before dropping to the rear. I fear that the "dropping to the rear and riding around to stay out of trouble" strategy will backfire big time, as a long green flag run could put you multiple laps down if you don't have a strong drafting partner.
21 - TREVOR BAYNE - Bayne made the C-List choice easy with his late wreck in the duel. Love the Fords here but not enough to start any of them. No idea how strong the Wood Brothers backup car is, and coupled with Bayne's inexperience I'm bailing off the Bayne Bandwagon for this week.
There are still more practices to be run, and you don't have to lock down your starters until the green flag drops on Sunday. Since I won't be able to post after today I'll give you 1 or 2 names to watch for in final practice and you'll be on your own to decide who's better. To help you decide I've broken it down like this:
- DON'T put too much weight into final practice, most guys are just breaking in a new engine and making sure everything is tight. The guys that are good are not going to risk being in a wreck just to run some practice laps, it's the guys who are struggling who will be out there turning laps and might end up at the top of the speed charts.
- DO watch to make sure no one goes to a backup car or has to drop to the rear for changes. Starting position, oddly enough, is going to be somewhat important here, as the leaders can break away and put cars laps down in a hurry.
- DO listen to driver and crew chief comments, especially shy away from anyone who is struggling with overheating issues.
The following drivers are listed in order of how confident I am to start them, top to bottom:
A-LIST:
29 - KEVIN HARVICK - No surprise here, RCR cars are the strongest out there and if all 3 survive til the end of the race they are going to be nearly impossible to beat with the new drafting style. Being on the same channel as a team mate seems to be a great advantage as you can coordinate your swaps and blocks.
22 - KURT BUSCH - The performance is better on the 22 than the 29, but for a driver to win the Shootout, his duel, and the 500 would be pretty spectacular. What I don't like is the 22 potentially not having a dancing partner at the end of the race. Brad Keselowski struggled in his Duel and there aren't any other competitive Dodges in the field that will be loyal to Kurt at the end of the 500. I originally bought into Busch, but watching the replay of the Shootouts Harvick was so close to the performance level of Busch and with Harvick having strong team mates I will take the 29.
I'm benching Hendrick Motorsports and Tony Stewart. Hendrick cars are fair but not race winners, I think Trevor Bayne made Jeff Gordon look better than he really was in the 2nd duel. Stewart has not shown the kind of performance I expected and it reared it's ugly head again in the duel with performance and overheating issues, he's off the team this week. Roush Fenway Racing is also on the bench, the Fords are outstanding pushers and could potentially nab you a solid finish, but they can't lead a pack that well (Harvick made Kenseth look better than he was). Edwards and Biffle were teamed up in the 2nd Duel and couldn't really contend for the lead, then dropped off at the end of the race.
B-LIST:
31 - JEFF BURTON - Lock, almost to the point where even if he were to go to the rear in a backup car I would still consider starting him. He had one of the strongest cars at the Fall Talladega race and that has rolled right through speedweeks. If he doesn't get run over from behind he's smart enough to keep his nose clean and out of trouble until the end. I like using the 31 right here and now.
56 - MARTIN TRUEX JR. - Here's a team that came out of left field on me, MWR. However looking back it should not come as a huge surprise, again another team that was strong at the Fall Talladega race and with the new rules package they seem to have it figured out better than many of the other options in the B. Again 2 strong team mates all starting towards the front of the field is also a big plus.
00 - DAVID REUTIMANN - See above. I'm giving the very slight nod to Truex to be on the starting team because of his previous plate track performance and his starting position.
1 - JAMIE McMURRAY - McMurray is very fast but he is also all over the map as far as performance. There were times where he could blast right through the field and push anyone he wanted out in front, other tiems he was hopelessly stuck in the rear of the pack. A bad pit stop forced him to the rear where he could get nothing going, and almost lost a lap to the leaders. Slight overheating issues as well with both Earnhardt-Ganassi cars also has me a little concerned.
42 - JUAN PABLO MONTOYA - See above, a mirror image of his team mate, seems to have it down a little better but the overheating issues still remain a big red flag to me.
Again I am omitting Clint Bowyer and Joey Logano. Bowyer is going to be very strong but I just can't risk the stud in the B-List on a plate track, I will get 9 quality starts out of him elsewhere. Logano was decent but him going to the back and me wanting to start-save him as well, he gets the bench.
I'm benching Kasey Kahne/Brian Vickers as well as Mark Martin/Dale Earnhardt Jr. The Red Bull cars are off. Kahne is decent as a leader but can't push to save his life, Vickers isn't that strong pushing or leading. Both Martin and Junior are down on speed and slight overheating issues has be also bailing on these guys for the 500. No reason to start Junior at all now, many people will auto-plug him into their lineup but with him starting at the rear and without performance this is a great opportunity to make up for other players lack of knowledge.
C-LIST:
78 - REGAN SMITH - Pretty much a lock minus losing a car in final practice. Another RCR affiliated guy who's a great plate racer and a great pusher AND leader in the draft. I think he will be right there with the RCR guys during the race as pseudo-team mates. Some might argue that you could start-save Regan for another track but I am rolling with him as I think his performance is a good bit ahead of the rest of the C-List field.
15 - MICHAEL WALTRIP - Solid but I don't have as much confidence in Waltrip as I do in Regan. Waltrip has not been that great as a plate racer now that he's cut back to part-time. He is also a guy who I think will be more of a pusher getting his team mates out front rather than going for the win himself.
09 - BILL ELLIOTT - He was much more racey than I thought he would be in the 1st Duel before dropping to the rear. I fear that the "dropping to the rear and riding around to stay out of trouble" strategy will backfire big time, as a long green flag run could put you multiple laps down if you don't have a strong drafting partner.
21 - TREVOR BAYNE - Bayne made the C-List choice easy with his late wreck in the duel. Love the Fords here but not enough to start any of them. No idea how strong the Wood Brothers backup car is, and coupled with Bayne's inexperience I'm bailing off the Bayne Bandwagon for this week.
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Daytona 500 - Early Lineup
So you've taken a look at the Loop Data, Fall Talladega, and The Shootout. Let's now narrow it down to a few of the names I am penciling in for my Daytona 500 team. Keep in mind I will be watching practice and the Gatorade Duels to determine who makes it and who doesn't, so don't be surprised if a new name pops up after Thursday.
A-LIST:
29 - KEVIN HARVICK - Harvick and the RCR combination is going to be tough to ignore when it comes down to locking in the A-List starter. Harvick has strong team mates who I believe will be up at the front of the field early and often. Harvick proved in the Fall Talladega race that he can use this 2 car draft to his ultimate advantage. I could see using all 9 Harvick starts this year, so even though he might be the best A-List choice, I might bench him if another A-List driver is close to Harvick's level.
14 - TONY STEWART - His plate record and record here at Daytona is impossible to ignore. He is the top rated driver in the Loop Data, and he has everyone CRUSHED in laps led. Nabbing the driver who gets those 10 points for most laps led can really help boost your early lead or help cushion the blow of a bad finish. Stewart will be one of the cars I will watch the closest this week, as he has not impressed in the draft yet. I need to see some results before I give the starting nod to the 14.
22 - KURT BUSCH - It doesn't hurt that he won the Bud Shootout, but I'm looking mainly at his track record on plate tracks being pretty stellar as he keeps his nose out of the big one. Surprisingly the Dodges seem to be on-par with the Chevy's as good pushers and leaders in the 2 car draft. Busch is not someone I see starting 9 times in the A-List, so if he continues to impress through the Duels, look for the 22 to get the start.
Jeff Gordon will also get consideration, but like Stewart, I have yet to see the production in the draft from him. He'll get some looks but I need to see some major improvement. I am ignoring Jimmie Johnson this week, no matter how good he is. He is a definite 9-start driver and there is no way I am risking a poor finish on a plate track with team 48.
B-LIST:
88 - DALE EARNHARDT JR. - Love him or hate him, he's good in the draft and he's got a strong piece. He was very impressive in the Fall Talladega race as well using the 2 car draft. I suspect with Junior starting up front that he will stay there, and could be a great candidate for leading the most laps, especially if we get early long green flag runs. Strategy will be the big play here, everyone and their brother picks Junior on plate tracks, so you have to choose, do you want to score the same points as everyone else, or roll the dice and pick a different name to get a different result...for better or for worse.
31 - JEFF BURTON - For me, Burton is darn near a lock for one of my 2 B-List starting spots. His car has been the strongest of the strong cars so far in Speedweeks and he was dominate early in the Fall Talladega race. Some might argue that you want to save Burton for down the road, but I disagree, I see Burton falling off as the season goes on, so I will be using Burton early and often while the iron is still hot.
5 - MARK MARTIN - Hard to ignore this veteran as well. Although he doesn't seem to have the best piece of the Hendrick bunch, he's still stout. Martin is another driver who keeps his nose clean, finishing in the Top 12 in 3 of the 4 plate races last year. Also like Burton, I see Martin falling off as the year progresses (and potential turmoil with getting Kahne in the 5 car before the end of 2011). So again, I am using Martin early and often.
1 - JAMIE McMURRAY - Jamie Big Mac is one I will need to watch in practice and the Duels, he is in a backup car after whacking the concrete in practice last week. Still I believe EGR has another good bullet loaded up, and McMurray was strong in the Fall Talladega race before getting caught up in bad luck. Typical McMurray, you're either going to ride him to a solid finish or he's going to throw it away at some point in the race, not a lot of middle ground when it comes to the 1 car.
One giant name you are not seeing on here is Clint Bowyer. Even though Bowyer is extremely impressive and could be a potential race winner, I definitely have Bowyer down for 9-starts this year in the B-List, so much like Johnson, I just can't use/risk a Bowyer start here at Daytona.
Also keeping an eye on Juan Pablo Montoya, still don't know exactly what the 42 team has got but there is potential there for him to make the team. Red Bull Drivers Kasey Kahne and Brian Vickers also will get some looks, but I just don't have the faith in the team chemistry yet to see them in the lineup. However if they work well in the Duels I might have to reconsider.
C-LIST:
21 - TREVOR BAYNE - No doubt the 21 has been very impressive so far, and with Bayne running a limited schedule and having such a light C-List, you want to take every advantage you can of a start-saving C-List driver having a good run. The biggest unknown will be if Bayne can hang with the big boys in the draft, rookies tend to get hung out to dry more often than not. We'll see who works with him in the Duels.
09 - BILL ELLIOTT - As posted here earlier, don't count out the 09 this week. He'll be taking it easy to protect a good piece he's got for the 500. I do worry about Bill being too conservative however, we saw with the 2 car draft that if you get hung out by yourself, you're going a lap down, quick. Kenseth lost a dancing partner in the Shootout and 9 laps later he was being lapped. Those who "hang in the back" need to have committed and fast partners for the strategy to work this year.
78 - REGAN SMITH - Regan has not been as strong as I thought he would be here with RCR equipment. But he's a decent plate racer and the equipment is there, he just needs to get the most out of it. Smith will really need to impress me this week to get the start, as I would like to save him for later in the season as he could have potential to use 8-9 starts in the thin C-List.
15 - MICHAEL WALTRIP - Waltrip still needs to race his way into the field in the Duels, but I suspect with both the 56 and the 00 in his Duel race that it won't be an issue. Waltrip, and the rest of MWR, has been nothing to write home about so far at Daytona, and don't forget Waltrip wasn't all that impressive last year in his 2 starts at Talladega. I will need to see BIG things out of Waltrip for him to get the starting nod.
The 2 names here in the C that are omitted are David Ragan and Paul Menard. Both of which will be strong here at Daytona, but they are definite 9-start drivers in the C-List and there isn't any chance I will be risking a start on either one of these guys here.
We'll have the full wrap up here on Thursday night and we will let you know who's impressed us enough to make The Fantasy Nascar Geeker Daytona 500 Starting Lineup!
A-LIST:
29 - KEVIN HARVICK - Harvick and the RCR combination is going to be tough to ignore when it comes down to locking in the A-List starter. Harvick has strong team mates who I believe will be up at the front of the field early and often. Harvick proved in the Fall Talladega race that he can use this 2 car draft to his ultimate advantage. I could see using all 9 Harvick starts this year, so even though he might be the best A-List choice, I might bench him if another A-List driver is close to Harvick's level.
14 - TONY STEWART - His plate record and record here at Daytona is impossible to ignore. He is the top rated driver in the Loop Data, and he has everyone CRUSHED in laps led. Nabbing the driver who gets those 10 points for most laps led can really help boost your early lead or help cushion the blow of a bad finish. Stewart will be one of the cars I will watch the closest this week, as he has not impressed in the draft yet. I need to see some results before I give the starting nod to the 14.
22 - KURT BUSCH - It doesn't hurt that he won the Bud Shootout, but I'm looking mainly at his track record on plate tracks being pretty stellar as he keeps his nose out of the big one. Surprisingly the Dodges seem to be on-par with the Chevy's as good pushers and leaders in the 2 car draft. Busch is not someone I see starting 9 times in the A-List, so if he continues to impress through the Duels, look for the 22 to get the start.
Jeff Gordon will also get consideration, but like Stewart, I have yet to see the production in the draft from him. He'll get some looks but I need to see some major improvement. I am ignoring Jimmie Johnson this week, no matter how good he is. He is a definite 9-start driver and there is no way I am risking a poor finish on a plate track with team 48.
B-LIST:
88 - DALE EARNHARDT JR. - Love him or hate him, he's good in the draft and he's got a strong piece. He was very impressive in the Fall Talladega race as well using the 2 car draft. I suspect with Junior starting up front that he will stay there, and could be a great candidate for leading the most laps, especially if we get early long green flag runs. Strategy will be the big play here, everyone and their brother picks Junior on plate tracks, so you have to choose, do you want to score the same points as everyone else, or roll the dice and pick a different name to get a different result...for better or for worse.
31 - JEFF BURTON - For me, Burton is darn near a lock for one of my 2 B-List starting spots. His car has been the strongest of the strong cars so far in Speedweeks and he was dominate early in the Fall Talladega race. Some might argue that you want to save Burton for down the road, but I disagree, I see Burton falling off as the season goes on, so I will be using Burton early and often while the iron is still hot.
5 - MARK MARTIN - Hard to ignore this veteran as well. Although he doesn't seem to have the best piece of the Hendrick bunch, he's still stout. Martin is another driver who keeps his nose clean, finishing in the Top 12 in 3 of the 4 plate races last year. Also like Burton, I see Martin falling off as the year progresses (and potential turmoil with getting Kahne in the 5 car before the end of 2011). So again, I am using Martin early and often.
1 - JAMIE McMURRAY - Jamie Big Mac is one I will need to watch in practice and the Duels, he is in a backup car after whacking the concrete in practice last week. Still I believe EGR has another good bullet loaded up, and McMurray was strong in the Fall Talladega race before getting caught up in bad luck. Typical McMurray, you're either going to ride him to a solid finish or he's going to throw it away at some point in the race, not a lot of middle ground when it comes to the 1 car.
One giant name you are not seeing on here is Clint Bowyer. Even though Bowyer is extremely impressive and could be a potential race winner, I definitely have Bowyer down for 9-starts this year in the B-List, so much like Johnson, I just can't use/risk a Bowyer start here at Daytona.
Also keeping an eye on Juan Pablo Montoya, still don't know exactly what the 42 team has got but there is potential there for him to make the team. Red Bull Drivers Kasey Kahne and Brian Vickers also will get some looks, but I just don't have the faith in the team chemistry yet to see them in the lineup. However if they work well in the Duels I might have to reconsider.
C-LIST:
21 - TREVOR BAYNE - No doubt the 21 has been very impressive so far, and with Bayne running a limited schedule and having such a light C-List, you want to take every advantage you can of a start-saving C-List driver having a good run. The biggest unknown will be if Bayne can hang with the big boys in the draft, rookies tend to get hung out to dry more often than not. We'll see who works with him in the Duels.
09 - BILL ELLIOTT - As posted here earlier, don't count out the 09 this week. He'll be taking it easy to protect a good piece he's got for the 500. I do worry about Bill being too conservative however, we saw with the 2 car draft that if you get hung out by yourself, you're going a lap down, quick. Kenseth lost a dancing partner in the Shootout and 9 laps later he was being lapped. Those who "hang in the back" need to have committed and fast partners for the strategy to work this year.
78 - REGAN SMITH - Regan has not been as strong as I thought he would be here with RCR equipment. But he's a decent plate racer and the equipment is there, he just needs to get the most out of it. Smith will really need to impress me this week to get the start, as I would like to save him for later in the season as he could have potential to use 8-9 starts in the thin C-List.
15 - MICHAEL WALTRIP - Waltrip still needs to race his way into the field in the Duels, but I suspect with both the 56 and the 00 in his Duel race that it won't be an issue. Waltrip, and the rest of MWR, has been nothing to write home about so far at Daytona, and don't forget Waltrip wasn't all that impressive last year in his 2 starts at Talladega. I will need to see BIG things out of Waltrip for him to get the starting nod.
The 2 names here in the C that are omitted are David Ragan and Paul Menard. Both of which will be strong here at Daytona, but they are definite 9-start drivers in the C-List and there isn't any chance I will be risking a start on either one of these guys here.
We'll have the full wrap up here on Thursday night and we will let you know who's impressed us enough to make The Fantasy Nascar Geeker Daytona 500 Starting Lineup!
Monday, February 14, 2011
DAYTONA 500 - Early Thoughts
The Bud Shootout and Qualifying are now completed, and if you read the previous post, this shouldn't mean a whole heck of a lot to you. Especially with the rules changes placed on the teams last night, we will NOT see the same kind of racing we saw on Saturday night with cars being able to push for 10+ laps at a time without a breather.
Revert back to the Fall Talladega race last year, where the new 2-car draft was first introduced. The teams had not yet capitalized on the technology to keep cars tucked up underneath other cars for extended periods of time, which is exactly what we will see on Thursday and Sunday.
So here is what I am looking for in my early picks for the Daytona 500. With the rules changes, I will look into the Fall Talladega race, paired with Loop Data from Daytona, and performance in the Gatorade Duels, with a very very small amount of weight on results from the Bud Shootout.
I encourage everyone to read the loop data from Daytona, the last 12 races (6 years including the 400 and 500):
http://www.motorracingnetwork.com/ebook/2011_Daytona_500_Pre/flash.html#/1/
With a plate race being up to chance and so many variables, all of the loop data doesn't necessarily holds the same weight. I am mainly looking at Average Finish, Average Position, Laps Led, and the Overall Driver Rating
AVERAGE FINISH:
Bowyer - 12.8
Harvick - 14.3
Stewart - 14.5
Ku. Busch - 14.6
Kenseth - 14.8
Kahne - 15.0
Earnhardt Jr - 15.3
Ragan - 17.1
Edwards - 17.7
Burton - 18.0
Vickers - 18.8
J. Gordon - 19.0
Ky. Busch - 19.5
AVERAGE POSITION:
Johnson - 11.0
Ky. Busch - 12.1
J. Gordon - 12.2
Stewart - 13.1
Ku. Busch - 14.0
Kenseth - 14.5
Burton - 15.3
Earnhardt Jr - 15.6
Edwards - 15.6
Bowyer - 15.7
Harvick - 16.6
Newman - 17.1
Kahne - 17.4
McMurray - 17.4
Hamlin - 17.7
LAPS LEAD:
Stewart - 523
Ky. Busch - 261
Ku. Busch - 198
J. Gordon - 147
Hamlin - 116
Bowyer - 115
Earnhardt Jr. - 110
Harvick - 79
OVERALL DRIVING RATING:
Stewart - 100.7
Ky. Busch - 99.0
Ku. Busch - 94.8
J. Gordon - 92.8
Johnson - 91.7
Kenseth - 91.6
Harvick - 88.5
Bowyer - 86.7
Earnhardt Jr. - 86.7
Edwards - 85.2
Burton - 84.9
Newman - 81.4
Kahne - 81.4
McMurray - 81.3
Vickers - 80.3
Let's now take a quick review of the Fall Talladega Race:
DOMINANT CARS: Burton, Earnhardt Jr, Bowyer
Jeff Burton and Dale Earnhadt Jr were able to team up and smoke the field early, but ironically, those 2 took each other out in a mid-race crash. Still Earnhardt Jr held onto the most laps led in the race (24) while Burton led 6 times for 11 laps. After that Bowyer proved to be the car to beat as he was great at pushing and pulling people around the track, winning the race and leading 19 laps.
Kyle Busch led 20 laps but fell off terribly late in the race, Montoya also led 18 laps but that was mostly in the mid stages after the Burton/Junior crash.
Harvick narrowly missed the win, and led 12 laps, he was a better pusher than he was a leader but he still ran strong regardless. RCR and EGR were the strong teams, as McMurray was also strong before a mid race crash eliminated him along with the stout performance from Montoya.
So going into the Duels, these are the teams I will be watching the closest. Kurt Busch winning the Bud Shootout is not a stone-cold lock into your A-List, but as you can see from the loop data he is no slouch on restrictor plate tracks, not posting a lot of wins but keeping his nose clean and getting solid finishes. Tony Stewart is ranked #1 in the Loop Data, he's a plate track ace but I need to see some more performance out of him in the Duels as he has not impressed in testing or the shootout.
SLEEPER ALERT: Bill Elliott
Elliott is now locked into the field in the 09 car thanks to an excellent qualifying effort, and a post-qualifying interview gave a lot of insight into his mentality for the rest of this week. Don't expect much out of the 09 in drafting practice or in the Duels, they only have 1 good primary car that they can not afford to wreck, and with a locked in spot and Bill having the tendency to ride around the back of the pack as is, you will see lackluster results this week.
But don't count Elliott out, he knows how to keep his nose clean in these plate races and the 09 car has a very stout plate package, depending on what we see out of some of the other C-List drivers this week, I am not keeping the 09 in the back of my memory as a potential C-List start saver.
Tomorrow or Wednesday I will go through my "early picks" in the A, B & C List. As always feel free to leave any questions or comments below!
Revert back to the Fall Talladega race last year, where the new 2-car draft was first introduced. The teams had not yet capitalized on the technology to keep cars tucked up underneath other cars for extended periods of time, which is exactly what we will see on Thursday and Sunday.
So here is what I am looking for in my early picks for the Daytona 500. With the rules changes, I will look into the Fall Talladega race, paired with Loop Data from Daytona, and performance in the Gatorade Duels, with a very very small amount of weight on results from the Bud Shootout.
I encourage everyone to read the loop data from Daytona, the last 12 races (6 years including the 400 and 500):
http://www.motorracingnetwork.com/ebook/2011_Daytona_500_Pre/flash.html#/1/
With a plate race being up to chance and so many variables, all of the loop data doesn't necessarily holds the same weight. I am mainly looking at Average Finish, Average Position, Laps Led, and the Overall Driver Rating
AVERAGE FINISH:
Bowyer - 12.8
Harvick - 14.3
Stewart - 14.5
Ku. Busch - 14.6
Kenseth - 14.8
Kahne - 15.0
Earnhardt Jr - 15.3
Ragan - 17.1
Edwards - 17.7
Burton - 18.0
Vickers - 18.8
J. Gordon - 19.0
Ky. Busch - 19.5
AVERAGE POSITION:
Johnson - 11.0
Ky. Busch - 12.1
J. Gordon - 12.2
Stewart - 13.1
Ku. Busch - 14.0
Kenseth - 14.5
Burton - 15.3
Earnhardt Jr - 15.6
Edwards - 15.6
Bowyer - 15.7
Harvick - 16.6
Newman - 17.1
Kahne - 17.4
McMurray - 17.4
Hamlin - 17.7
LAPS LEAD:
Stewart - 523
Ky. Busch - 261
Ku. Busch - 198
J. Gordon - 147
Hamlin - 116
Bowyer - 115
Earnhardt Jr. - 110
Harvick - 79
OVERALL DRIVING RATING:
Stewart - 100.7
Ky. Busch - 99.0
Ku. Busch - 94.8
J. Gordon - 92.8
Johnson - 91.7
Kenseth - 91.6
Harvick - 88.5
Bowyer - 86.7
Earnhardt Jr. - 86.7
Edwards - 85.2
Burton - 84.9
Newman - 81.4
Kahne - 81.4
McMurray - 81.3
Vickers - 80.3
Let's now take a quick review of the Fall Talladega Race:
DOMINANT CARS: Burton, Earnhardt Jr, Bowyer
Jeff Burton and Dale Earnhadt Jr were able to team up and smoke the field early, but ironically, those 2 took each other out in a mid-race crash. Still Earnhardt Jr held onto the most laps led in the race (24) while Burton led 6 times for 11 laps. After that Bowyer proved to be the car to beat as he was great at pushing and pulling people around the track, winning the race and leading 19 laps.
Kyle Busch led 20 laps but fell off terribly late in the race, Montoya also led 18 laps but that was mostly in the mid stages after the Burton/Junior crash.
Harvick narrowly missed the win, and led 12 laps, he was a better pusher than he was a leader but he still ran strong regardless. RCR and EGR were the strong teams, as McMurray was also strong before a mid race crash eliminated him along with the stout performance from Montoya.
So going into the Duels, these are the teams I will be watching the closest. Kurt Busch winning the Bud Shootout is not a stone-cold lock into your A-List, but as you can see from the loop data he is no slouch on restrictor plate tracks, not posting a lot of wins but keeping his nose clean and getting solid finishes. Tony Stewart is ranked #1 in the Loop Data, he's a plate track ace but I need to see some more performance out of him in the Duels as he has not impressed in testing or the shootout.
SLEEPER ALERT: Bill Elliott
Elliott is now locked into the field in the 09 car thanks to an excellent qualifying effort, and a post-qualifying interview gave a lot of insight into his mentality for the rest of this week. Don't expect much out of the 09 in drafting practice or in the Duels, they only have 1 good primary car that they can not afford to wreck, and with a locked in spot and Bill having the tendency to ride around the back of the pack as is, you will see lackluster results this week.
But don't count Elliott out, he knows how to keep his nose clean in these plate races and the 09 car has a very stout plate package, depending on what we see out of some of the other C-List drivers this week, I am not keeping the 09 in the back of my memory as a potential C-List start saver.
Tomorrow or Wednesday I will go through my "early picks" in the A, B & C List. As always feel free to leave any questions or comments below!
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
Shootout & Qualifying - What To Look For
This weekend the Bud Shootout and Daytona 500 Qualifying kicks off the 2011 season. Many people ask about picking drivers on a plate track, is it all up to luck or is there some skill involved in picking drivers? The answer, both.
The 500 pays the same amount of points as the rest of the Fantasy NASCAR Season, and you can't afford to throw away a race on a whim or a hunch on a driver. You need to look heavily into the past to see the future on plate tracks, there are some guys that are just better drafters and better plate racers than others, so you need to take that into heavy consideration.
But you also need to look at the Bud Shootout for reference. However, it should not be the benchmark for how you set your team. Far too many people get locked onto the Bud Shootout and use that as a heavy factor in determining their 500 team. Fact is, many teams use a completely different car for the 500, and the driver mentality is usually much different from the Shootout to the 500.
What you do need to look for in the 500 is how a driver is handling the new surface. Not so much the moves, passes, and aggression level, because again the mentality and the car will change from the Shootout to the 500. You need to watch which drivers consistently get help from their fellow drivers for a push in the draft, and which drivers play the correct strategy game in the closing laps.
The following day we roll out with 500 qualifying. Remember, there are no bonus points in Yahoo Fantasy for the 500, and you have right up until the green flag to change anyone and everyone on your team. Really all you need to look for in qualifying is the guys in the C-List outside the Top 35 in points, who can lock themselves in on time, that way you can narrow your list of C-Drivers to watch for in practice and in the Gatorade Duels.
We are all excited for the season to start, but don't make the critical mistake of blowing your excitement on the Bud Shootout and locking down your 500 team based on Shootout results. Take a deep breath and leave your team empty, you'll have plenty of time between the Duel's and the 500 to make your decisions.
The 500 pays the same amount of points as the rest of the Fantasy NASCAR Season, and you can't afford to throw away a race on a whim or a hunch on a driver. You need to look heavily into the past to see the future on plate tracks, there are some guys that are just better drafters and better plate racers than others, so you need to take that into heavy consideration.
But you also need to look at the Bud Shootout for reference. However, it should not be the benchmark for how you set your team. Far too many people get locked onto the Bud Shootout and use that as a heavy factor in determining their 500 team. Fact is, many teams use a completely different car for the 500, and the driver mentality is usually much different from the Shootout to the 500.
What you do need to look for in the 500 is how a driver is handling the new surface. Not so much the moves, passes, and aggression level, because again the mentality and the car will change from the Shootout to the 500. You need to watch which drivers consistently get help from their fellow drivers for a push in the draft, and which drivers play the correct strategy game in the closing laps.
The following day we roll out with 500 qualifying. Remember, there are no bonus points in Yahoo Fantasy for the 500, and you have right up until the green flag to change anyone and everyone on your team. Really all you need to look for in qualifying is the guys in the C-List outside the Top 35 in points, who can lock themselves in on time, that way you can narrow your list of C-Drivers to watch for in practice and in the Gatorade Duels.
We are all excited for the season to start, but don't make the critical mistake of blowing your excitement on the Bud Shootout and locking down your 500 team based on Shootout results. Take a deep breath and leave your team empty, you'll have plenty of time between the Duel's and the 500 to make your decisions.
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