CHARLOTTE 1 - Lockdown

Qualifying and practice is over at CMS, let's take a look at some of the important numbers and factors heading into today's race:

First up, pit selection for the race:

We'll focus on the Saturday P2 and P3 practice sessions, as the first session was almost entirely in Qualifying trim for the drivers.


P2 10-Lap Averages:

1	27	Paul Menard	1	10	185.732	1
2	22	Kurt Busch	1	10	184.930	2
3	39	Ryan Newman	1	10	184.042	15
4	2	Brad Keselowski	1	10	183.997	26
5	00	David Reutimann	1	10	183.988	18
6	48	Jimmie Johnson	1	10	183.936	17
7	88	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	19	28	183.769	3
8	13	Casey Mears	1	10	182.687	34
9	18	Kyle Busch	14	23	182.252	13
10	1	Jamie McMurray	16	25	181.935	20
11	38	Travis Kvapil(i)	1	10	181.877	33
12	33	Clint Bowyer	6	15	181.221	28

P3 10-Lap Averages:

Rank	Car#	Driver	From Lap	To Lap	Avg Speed	Overall Rank
1	18	Kyle Busch	1	10	182.480	4
2	88	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	1	10	182.139	12
3	33	Clint Bowyer	1	10	181.997	21
4	99	Carl Edwards	1	10	181.973	13
5	43	A J Allmendinger	1	10	181.681	24
6	56	Martin Truex Jr.	1	10	181.681	8
7	11	Denny Hamlin	1	10	181.503	6
8	31	Jeff Burton	29	38	181.291	5
9	27	Paul Menard	8	17	181.195	3
10	1	Jamie McMurray	18	27	181.010	15
11	83	Brian Vickers	25	34	180.998	18
12	22	Kurt Busch	22	31	180.934	9
13	20	Joey Logano	29	38	180.875	11
14	5	Mark Martin	18	27	180.634	25
15	34	David Gilliland	1	10	180.064	30
16	9	Marcos Ambrose	11	20	179.951	2
17	39	Ryan Newman	29	38	179.833	20
18	29	Kevin Harvick	20	29	179.700	27
19	00	David Reutimann	12	21	179.644	1
20	95	David Starr(i)	19	28	179.131	33
21	13	Casey Mears	20	29	178.798	36
22	38	Travis Kvapil(i)	1	10	177.984	37
23	09	Landon Cassill(i)	1	10	177.883	41

What is important to note here is how much this track changes from day to night. As you may of heard in the TV coverage, the times don't mean much in the practice sessions, it's more on how the car feels and can you adjust on it in the race.

That being said, we're ranking the drivers in the following way:


A-LIST:
Carl Edwards says his car is as good or better than the car he had in the All Star race. Yikes! If that doesn't scream lock I don't know what does. Edwards parked his car early as he felt the car was perfect for race conditions. In fact all of Roush Fenway seems pretty happy, as Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle are also extremely pleased with their rides.

No doubt that Kyle Busch continues to look impressive, putting up some of the best numbers today, and also parking his car early thinking that it will be strong for race conditions. The looming engine woes continues to have me put an asterik by his name, but if you want to gamble, the 18 could be a race winner not many would select. You can never count out Jimmie Johnson at any race track, and he should be in contention again Sunday night.

A-LIST RANKS: 99, 18, 17, 16, 48, 14, 11, 29, 24, 22

B-LIST:
Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been very impressive in practice, the car seems to be fast on long runs which we will see plenty of during the 600. Junior will have to be on point early in the race, as he starts right on the edge of the "danger zone" in 25th. If the car isn't right, he could be trapped early.

I like David Reutimann who has good speed on a short run and has a lot of adjustability in the car for the race, plus he's got a great starting position. His team mate Martin Truex Jr. also looks good but I worry that he will not be able to keep up with changing track conditions, as we've seen in the past. I like Kasey Kahne and crew chief Kenny Francis on a night track, but as always, its very hard to read Kahne in practice, he could be Top 5, he could be 25th. My guess is a Top 10 contender.

Clint Bowyer, Ryan Newman, and Joey Logano all look like decent picks, but these guys are studs and I think you can start save in the B-List this week and end up pretty good. Bowyer has been absolutely terrible all weekend until late in the final session where they seemed to hit on something. Newman was up and down in the practice session. Logano I also lump into the same boat as Kyle Busch, good car but between his terrible luck and motor issues he finds my bench.

Marcos Ambrose has been terrible in practice which has been a huge surprise. The fact that he starts 24th doesn't make me feel much better about the situation either. I will wait until I see Mark Garrow's Crew Chief notes tomorrow to see exactly what the deal is on Ambrose who seems to be fighting his car.

B-LIST RANKS: 88, 4, 33, 00, 20, 56, 9, 39, 2, 1, 5, 43, 31, 42, 83

C-LIST:
A bit of dilemma in the C-List, and it will come down to your comfort level and starts you have remaining to make your decision.

There is no doubt that Paul Menard is one of the most impressive cars on track in both practice session, he's easily Top 10 material. However there is concern that the 22 sitches in Menard's foot could get wet from sweat and come apart during this long race. Elliott Sadler is scheduled to be on stand-by for Menard (Menard would still receive points if Sadler gets into the car). Menard says its fine and he's not worried about it, and the original plan to have Sadler do some practice laps was scratched.

David Ragan is the safer choice, but only seems about Top 15 material to me. The car is consistent but he does not have the speed that Menard has shown. Personally, I have 5 Ragan starts and I've saved 8 Menard starts. I'm going to roll the dice on Menard instead of burning another Ragan start.

Regan Smith has a decent race car but will have to fight his way from the back of the field due to an engine change, which will put him in huge danger on going laps down early. I slot Bobby Labonte right in front of Smith now. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has put up impressive numbers, but I can't get behind a guy who just got thrown in the seat to do a 600 mile race when the longest race he's ever done is 300 miles.

C-LIST RANKS: 27, 6, 47, 78, 21, rest


FNG Team:
Carl Edwards (6 Starts Remaining)
Kasey Kahne (8 Starts Remaining)
David Reutimann (9 Starts Remaining)
Paul Menard (8 Starts Remaining)

Bench:
Kenseth (8), Ambrose (9), Bowyer (7), Ragan (5)

Ambrose/Reutimann is still a toss up for me, I am waiting on crew chief notes before I make my final decision on them tomorrow before lockdown.


No live chat tomorrow, as it is my birthday and I plan on going out and celebrating the 500 and the 600 with friends. I do suggest heading over the www.FantasyNascarPreview.com to check out their live race day chat. Good luck!

CHARLOTTE 1 - Loop Data & Line-Up

Next to the Daytona 500, the Coke 600 is one of the races where we get to see more practice and data before going into lockdown. First, let's take a look at the Loop Data from the last 3 years here at Charlotte (6 races total):


AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION:
A-List:
Ky. Busch - 4th
Gordon - 10th
Kenseth - 13th
Biffle - 14th

B-List:
Logano - 9th
Kahne - 11th
Reutimann - 12th
Martin - 13th

McMurray - 14th
Burton- 15th
Bowyer - 17th
Truex Jr. - 17th

C-List:
Ragan - 17th
Smith - 19th
Labonte - 21st
Menard - 26th


% of LAPS INSIDE the TOP 15:
A-List:
Ky. Busch - 91%
Johnson - 83%
Ku. Busch - 68%
Hamlin - 65%

B-List:
Logano - 87%
Reutimann. - 75%
Martin - 72%
Kahne - 68%

Burton- 65%
Truex Jr. - 65%
Bowyer - 55%
McMurray - 53%

C-List:
Ragan - 51%
Menard - 19%
Labonte - 12%
Smith - 2%


OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Ky. Busch - 122
Johnson - 109
Ku. Busch - 95
Gordon - 92

B-List:
Logano - 102
Kahne - 98
Reutimann - 93
Vickers - 92

Martin - 91
Burton - 91
McMurray - 87
Truex Jr. - 81

C-List:
Ragan - 79
Labonte - 61
Menard - 61
Smith - 61


We will also factor in results and performance from the All Star race. How does the All Star race compare to the 600? We've done the research over the last 3 years:

2010:

ALL STAR RACE:
1st - Ku. Busch - 1st in Coke 600, led most laps
2nd - Truex - 23rd in Coke 600, struggled all night
3rd - Logano - 13th in 600, led laps, 82% of laps inside Top 15
4th - Hamlin - 18th in 600, led laps, struggled around 15th all night
5th - Stewart - 15th in 600, led laps, ran about 13th all night
6th - Harvick - 11th in 600, hung around Top 10-15 all night
7th - Keselowski - 20th in 600, struggled, 5% of laps in Top 15
8th - Kenseth - 10th in 600, led lap but also hung around 10th-15th all night
9th - Biffle - 32nd in 600, but was running Top 5-10 before problems
10th - Labonte - 31st in 600, ran in the back all night

*Kyle Busch was running up front in the All Star race but was wrecked, Kyle then finished 3rd in the 600 but only spent 72% of his laps inside Top 15

*Paul Menard was 4th in the Sprint Showdown but in the 600 ran 70% of his laps inside Top 15 and finished 8th

---------

2009:

*Note, finishing order in 600 a little shuffled due to rain shortened race.

ALL STAR RACE:
1st - Stewart - 19th in 600, ran around Top 15 all day
2nd - Kenseth - 10th in 600, ran just inside Top 10 all day
3rd - Ku. Busch - 34th in 600, but ran 82% of laps about 10th-15th
4th - Hamlin - 11th in 600, ran inside Top 10 all day
5th - Edwards - 4th in 600, ran inside Top 5 all day
6th - Martin - 17th in 600, ran around 10th-15th
7th - Ky. Busch - 6th in 600, dominate car, led most laps
8th - Logano - 9th in 600, ran just inside Top 5 all day
9th - McMurray - 21st in 600, ran just outside Top 15 all day
10th - Earnhardt Jr - 40th in 600, issues early, never recovered

*Reutimann won the race on strategy but had a good car all night, just missed getting into the All Star race with a 3rd place in the Showdown

-------------

2008:

ALL STAR RACE:
1st - Kahne - 1st in the 600, just 10 laps shy of leading most laps
2nd - Biffle - 2nd in 600, ran around 8th all day and then charged late
3rd - Kenseth - 7th in 600, struggled around 13th, then charged late
4th - Johnson - 39th in 600, blown engine, led laps and ran about 10th
5th - Stewart - 18th in 600, also ran about 10th all day
6th - Newman - 21st in 600, struggled, ran just inside Top 20 all night
7th - Hornish Jr - 13th in 600, (no loop data available)
8th - Earnhardt Jr - 5th in 600, led most laps, ran inside Top 5 all night
9th - Martin - 15th in 600, ran just inside Top 15 all night
10th - Edwards - 9th in 600, ran just inside Top 10 all night

*Kyle Busch wrecked in the All Star race but was running well, finished 3rd in the 600 with a lot of laps led.


It's also important to refer to the All Star race since the practices for the 600 are all in daytime conditions. The drivers always talk about Charlotte and how much it changes from day to night, so looking at the practice charts will be a little less helpful. This is more about a team being able to keep up with the race track early on when it changes from dusk to dark and if the team can survive 600 miles mistake and failure free.

We will also look at the Darlington results, as they are running the same tire combination here at Charlotte, plus we will also factor in results from Texas 1 earlier this year.




A-LIST:

Carl Edwards proved once again why he is the hands down favorite heading into the 600. Edwards will probably be the popular pick the A-List and with good reason. He was the best car on the longer runs in the All Star race, he was strong at Darlington with a 2nd behind Regan Smith, and he was 3rd at Texas. Although his numbers here aren't great Edwards has been a machine at the 1.5 mile tracks and I am trumping the past with the present. Factor in the possibility of a fuel mileage being a possibility, knowing Edwards is one of the best when it comes to saving fuel, Edwards is a lock on my A-List.

I'm loading up on Ford's this weekend and going Matt Kenseth as my 2nd A-List driver. Kenseth was decent on the longer runs during the All Star Race and absolutely dominated Texas 1 earlier this year. It was hard to tell what Kenseth had in Darlington since he ran into problems so early in the race. But with a longer 600 mile event I'll bank on the 17 to stay calm and collected into another solid finish.

Kyle Busch has the best numbers by far here and looked really good in the All Star race, and he could easily be a potential race winner. But he finds my bench this week due to return of Valve Train problems at JGR. Busch lost an engine in practice at Dover, and then Logano lost another engine in practice for the Sprint Showdown due to valve problems once again. This is one of the few races where I do consider potential engine failures into my picks. Add into the lackluster results from Texas 1 this year and I am playing it conservative and putting the 18 on the bench.

Tony Stewart is a bit of a sleeper pick in the A-List this week. He was consistent all throughout the All Star Race, and in All Star practice had the best 10-lap average of any other driver. He led at both Texas and Darlington, finishing 7th and 12th in those events. Stewart will just miss my team this week as I think he has Top 5 potential but I am also concerned as this team is having more and more problems keeping the handling under the car in the longer races. I also like Greg Biffle for a Top 5 run, he was good in the longer Segment 1 in the All Star Race and was Top 5 at Texas, but struggled on this tire combination at Darlington.

Jimmie Johnson used to absolutely dominate this place...before the repave. You can't ever say that 5-time isn't a threat to win, especially after a consistent performance throughout the All Star race. Bad luck and a few terrible performances hurt Johnson's numbers here, but I also look at the fact that he struggled on this tire at Darlington and was barely a Top 10 car at Texas 1.

B-LIST:
The 600 is one of the few cookie cutter tracks where you can go a little off the map and find some good "sleepers". However the one stud I will roll out this week is Clint Bowyer. Although he was up and down in the All Star race he will still get start consideration from me for the 600. Think of the 33 as my "safety net" this week based on his 2nd place run at Texas and his Top 10 performance at Darlington before being crashed through the Harvick/Busch squabble.

These next 2 names I would like to get starts out of, beginning with Kasey Kahne. Kahne was very impressive in the All Star race before being wrecked by Greg Biffle in Segment 2. Kahne was a dominate car at Darlington on this tire as well. Although he struggled a bit at Texas 1, statistically this is Kahne's best track on the circuit and I like him as a Top 10 car on Sunday. I am not worried about engine troubles on Kahne, has he admitted he over-revved the engine on a restart at Dover causing the downward spiral into a failure.

You simply can not ignore Marcos Ambrose any longer, and it would take a pretty lousy practice and qualifying performance out of Marcos to get benched this week. Marcos is just on fire with a strong run at Dover, a Top 5 run at Texas 1, and a Top 15 performance at Darlington. Marcos was also the fastest car on track in the longer run to the finish during the Sprint Showdown. The engine failure from Dinger at Dover gives me slight cause for concern but not enough to ignore Ambrose's amazing numbers this year.

I'm rounding out my lineup with David Reutimann. A past winner here on pit strategy was then backed up by some solid Top 10 performances. Reutimann was also able to work his way from the back of the pack to be a contender in the All Star race. Reutimann had a solid Top 15 day at Darlington, but struggled at Texas 1, but this yeam has been together for a long time and they know how to adjust on the car to keep up with changing conditions.


Joey Logano is a name I can't blame anyone for having on their B-List this weekend. Joey however is in the same boat Kyle is in, very good here but dangerous with the engine failures starting to creep back into the picture. There are other options out there that should be right on par with Logano's performance so I am playing it safe and keeping the 20 off my team this week.


Ryan Newman didn't show much in the All Star Race, with a poor performance on the long run and a mid park performance on the shorter runs. Newman had a Top 15 day at Texas 1 and had a Top 15 day that he rebounded late into a Top 5 at Darlington. For a stud like Newman there isn't enough up side to potentially burn a start with him, so he is off the team. Dale Earnhardt Jr. had an impressive showing at Texas 1 and had a good run at Darlington going before a late race commitment cone violation dropped him in the field. Junior just misses my team this week because of his terrible performance on the long runs in the All Star and Showdown races.




C-LIST:
C-List looks like standard procedure this week. David Ragan had a very impressive performance in both the Showdown and the All Star race, and his previous numbers here at Charlotte back that up as well. Ragan was also the pole sitter at Texas (as well as in the Showdown) and went onto finish 7th at Texas 1. Although he struggled at Darlington, so did Paul Menard, with the duo finishing 21st and 22nd. Menard also has a shot at making the team after a 5th place run at Texas 1. Menard looked just a touch slower than Ragan in the Showdown before being caught up in some restart troubles so Ragan has the edge on potentially grabbing the starting spot as of now.


Regan Smith and Bobby Labonte seem about on par with each other once again, and both of them have a shot at a Top 20 run. Labonte ran about mid-pack in the Showdown while Regan struggled to run with the mid-pack cars in the All Star race before having his wreck.




FNG Team for the Coke 600:
Carl Edwards (6 Starts Remaining)
Matt Kenseth (8 Starts Remaining)

Kasey Kahne (7 Starts Remaining)
Marcos Ambrose (9 Starts Remaining)
Clint Bowyer (7 Starts Remaining)
David Reutimann (9 Starts Remaining)

David Ragan (5 Starts Remaining)
Paul Menard (8 Starts Remaining)

Remember lockdown is WEDNESDAY NIGHT. Don't get caught out as practice starts Thursday and you must be locked in with your team before practice begins. Good luck!

DOVER 1 - Lockdown

Luckily we got to see 4 solid hours of practice yesterday as qualifying was washed out. Lets look at the 10 lap averages in Practices:

P1:

Rank	Car#	Driver	From Lap	To Lap	Avg Speed	Overall Rank
1	48	Jimmie Johnson	2	11	156.243	1
2	18	Kyle Busch	1	10	154.137	6
3	5	Mark Martin	8	17	153.865	18
4	43	A J Allmendinger	2	11	153.807	2
5	17	Matt Kenseth	28	37	153.678	23
6	88	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	2	11	153.449	3
7	4	Kasey Kahne	5	14	153.440	4
8	2	Brad Keselowski	29	38	153.438	21
9	31	Jeff Burton	3	12	153.361	26
10	9	Marcos Ambrose	28	37	153.272	27
11	78	Regan Smith	1	10	153.231	9
12	1	Jamie McMurray	2	11	153.218	25
13	14	Tony Stewart	33	42	153.096	31
14	33	Clint Bowyer	1	10	152.970	16
15	22	Kurt Busch	45	54	152.945	22
16	24	Jeff Gordon	7	16	152.071	15
17	13	Casey Mears	16	25	151.858	36

P2:

Rank	Car#	Driver	From Lap	To Lap	Avg Speed	Overall Rank
1	4	Kasey Kahne	3	12	153.610	27
2	17	Matt Kenseth	2	11	153.433	9
3	48	Jimmie Johnson	54	63	153.189	23
4	27	Paul Menard	1	10	152.858	16
5	29	Kevin Harvick	21	30	152.710	31
6	43	A J Allmendinger	38	47	152.587	24
7	11	Denny Hamlin	4	13	152.482	10
8	6	David Ragan	40	49	152.415	5
9	33	Clint Bowyer	6	15	152.387	8
10	18	Kyle Busch	4	13	152.355	33
11	31	Jeff Burton	38	47	152.310	6
12	2	Brad Keselowski	31	40	152.228	2
13	00	David Reutimann	37	46	152.145	32
14	42	Juan Pablo Montoya	1	10	152.118	36
15	16	Greg Biffle	28	37	152.021	3
16	83	Brian Vickers	56	65	151.891	40
17	22	Kurt Busch	27	36	151.866	1
18	24	Jeff Gordon	48	57	151.687	43
19	88	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	18	27	151.479	41
20	20	Joey Logano	62	71	151.464	21
21	47	Bobby Labonte	41	50	150.413	39
22	09	Landon Cassill(i)	29	38	148.437	34

Starting position is important here, as passing is difficult but not impossible. What is even more critical is pit selection. This is one of, if not, the toughest pit roads on the entire circuit. It is very tight and very treacherous. A good pit selection can equal big results. Here are the pit selections for the race:

For now, here is what I see from the pracitces:

A-LIST:
Jimmie Johnson. Lock. Oddly enough the first time I've been able to say that with such confidence on 5-time this year. He was the class of the field on short runs and long runs yesterday, on a green track and a rubbered up track. Johnson is my pick to win. Having the pole and the #1 pit stall only helps solidify his solid position.

It's a pretty good drop off to the rest of the A-List. Carl Edwards should be strong, feels "good" about his car but not overly solid. Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle should all contend for Top 5s by the end of the day. I'd almost rank Kenseth above Edwards but Matt starts deep and probably won't get a good pit selection.

Kyle Busch looks strong, and if all goes well he should be a Top 5 and maybe even a race winner. But he's blown an engine, smacked the wall, and has to start in the back. With how good Johnson is, and Roush looking decent, I don't think its worth risking Kyle as a starter this week.


A-LIST RANKINGS: 48, 99, 17, 18, 16, 11, 29, 24, 14, 22

B-LIST:
This has turned into a great week to pull out your start savers. So much for A.J. Allmendinger being a sleeper pick, he's come up huge this week, starting 2nd, A.J. should be good for a Top 10. Kasey Kahne has also been solid all weekend, best of everyone in averages in P2, and coming in with great momentum he should also contend for a Top 10 finish. These are the 2 men that should be on your starting team this week.


Dale Earnhardt Jr. ends up with a great starting position and a good pit selection more than likely. His car wasn't overly fast, but it was consistent, and they are close on the setup. Look for a Top 15 run out of Junior. Jeff Burton was about the same as Junior, if not a little better than the 88 once the track rubbered up in P2. Martin Truex Jr. didn't make any long runs but his overall lap averages were about on par with the middle of the pack. Truex has a good starting spot and I think he should also hang onto a Top 15 run with the 88 and 31.

Mark Martin looks good in practice, but that's nothing new. The track will be green and I'm afraid of him and McGrew not being able to keep up with changing track conditions, which has been an issue in the past. Marcos Ambrose and Brad Keselowski both look decent, and could be surprises, but they are too big of risks for me this week.

This is a perfect week to bench guys like Ryan Newman and Clint Bowyer.  Newman has not found any speed this weekend and looked dejected during practice while sitting in the garage, add to the fact that Newman starts 28th is all the reason to bench him and save him for a more consistent week. Clint Bowyer is average at best on a green track, and a little better on the rubbered up track. Clint will have to fight his way into a Top 10, but I see him as a Top 15 so its a good week to go with other drivers and save Clint for when he looks like a solid Top 10-Top 5 car.

B-LIST RANKINGS: 4, 43, 56, 31, 88, 33, 20, 39, 9, 2, 5, 00, 42, 83, 1

C-LIST:
C-List oddly enough this week is a bit of a toss up, no one driver looks far and above better than the others. On the rubbered up track David Ragan and Paul Menard both looked about even and both seem happy with their cars. It will come down to pit selection and how many starts you have with each driver. Some of the experts argue that they'll save Menard for the 1.5 tracks where he looks more dominant.

Regan Smith and Bobby Labonte both look about on par, and might squeeze into the Top 20 by the end of the day, but I still rank Ragan and Menard above them as they are Top 15 potential.

C-LIST RANKINGS: 6, 27, 47, 78, field

Our Yahoo team this week, prior to pit selection choices:

Jimmie Johnson (9 starts remaining)
Kasey Kahne (8 starts remaining)
A.J. Allmendinger (9 starts remaining)
Paul Menard (8 starts remaining)

Join us at 12:00 Noon EST in our live chat for your up to date crew chief notes and final suggestions as we head into Dover!

DOVER 1 - Loop Data & Rankings

After a strange and unpredictable weekend in Darlington, we move to another track that could be just as much of a wild card. The Monster Mile is known for swallowing up competitors, but lucky for you, we're here to dissect the facts and help you get a high score this weekend on the Concrete Mile. Let's take a look at the loop data from 2008-2010:

AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION:
A-List:
Johnson - 5th
Kenseth - 6th
Edwards - 6th
Biffle - 8th

B-List:
Burton - 9th
Newman - 11th
Martin - 11th
Logano - 18th

Bowyer - 19th
Allmendinger- 19th
Kahne - 20th
Keselowski- 20th

C-List:
Menard - 20th
Ragan - 22nd
Labonte - 27th
Smith - 27th


% of LAPS INSIDE the TOP 15:
A-List:
Johnson - 96%
Biffle - 82%
Gordon - 81%
Edwards - 81%

B-List:
Newman - 81%
Burton. - 64%
Martin - 62%
Bowyer - 58%

McMurray - 55%
Logano - 55%
Truex Jr. - 52%
Montoya- 50%

C-List:
Menard - 29%
Ragan - 13%
Labonte - 6%
Smith - 1%


OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
Johnson - 131
Edwards- 107
Kenseth - 106
Biffle - 106

B-List:
Martin - 91
Newman - 91
Burton - 89
Allmendinger - 85

McMurray - 84
Bowyer - 83
Truex Jr. - 80
Montoya - 79

C-List:
Menard - 66
Ragan - 61
Labonte - 53
Smith - 52


We will also factor in momentum coming off of Darlington, and to a small extent, Bristol performance from earlier this year. Surprisingly, the correlation between results at Bristol and results at Dover are minimal, so don't put too much weight on what you saw at Thunder Valley when making your decisions.

Also note that we do get to see all of Friday practice before lockdown, so you will get to size up the competition before you lock it in. Head over to www.FantasyNascarPreview.com on Friday evening and check out our lockdown team on the Forum over there, we will be posting practice results along with other info with the experts on that forum.


A-LIST:
Pretty obvious choice here in the A-List, even though Jimmie Johnson had a rough go in Darlington, he absolutely owns this place and should make your A-List team regardless of practice performance, as they've been known not to show all of their cards in practice.

I would be surprised if anyone bumps Carl Edwards off my A-List as well. They don't call Concrete Carl for nothing. The 99 team has great momentum over the past few weeks, 11th or better in the last 4 races here on a track that Roush has always run strong at. The 99 is the leader of the Roush stable and should pair with 5-time on the roster this week.

There is a chance that Edwards could be knocked off by either of his team mates in Greg Biffle or Matt Kenseth. As noted above, Roush is always strong here, and both drivers should be in line for a Top 10, probably even a Top 5. However Kenseth is coming off a demoralizing run in Darlington where the team went 3 laps down and just put it in cruise control to salvage a finish. Biffle looked promising in practice but could never get a handle on the car at Darlington, both rank slightly behind Edwards going into practice.

Kyle Busch is another driver who could be a race winner here at Dover. He ranks right behind Johnson/Edwards in stats when you take out a few bad luck errors that skews his numbers. NASCAR dropped the hammer on Kyle and Kevin with a 4 race probation, so I am not worried about a retaliation in the race, especially when the All Star weekend is right around the corner (much better place to get even). That being said, Kyle will still have to outperform Edwards/Johnson by an impressive amount to get consideration for my A-List.

B-LIST:
Ryan Newman appears as top dog on my B-List once again, and for good reason. Top 10 in 3 out of the last 4 races here, good momentum (and overcoming adversity battling back through the field) at Darlington, and also led laps at Bristol. Qualifying and pit selection is always important here, so Newman will at least make my roster no matter what, near a lock to get a starting spot.


Can't deny that Kasey Kahne is on a roll after dominating Darlington. Kahne did run 9th at Bristol, and his stats here and fair so he gets penciled in for the time being. With how up and down Red Bull can be, he is by no means a lock, but will get consideration.

Jeff Burton is another high risk/high reward driver for this week. As we see on a weekly basis, Burton ranks towards the top of the loop data, and had a very impressive run going in Darlington until a motor let go. I'm not worried about engines at Dover with how much you float into the corners and the shorter race distance. The major downside to Burton is qualifying and a potential bad pit selection could make him a waste of a B-List spot, this is a driver who needs to impress in practice to make the squad.

You can count on 3 things, Death, Taxes, and Joey Logano having bad luck. This team has been in line for a host of Top 10 runs only to have failures and crashes take them out of the running. I always say you can't predict luck, but this season you can almost set your watch to a Logano meltdown. He's high risk and high reward with an 18th place average finish, including 2 Top 10 runs.

Richard Petty Motorsports, especially A.J. Allmendinger will end up making my team in one form or another. Dinger did the tire test here earlier this year (along with Gordon and Hamlin...Kahne did the tire test for Darlington and you see how that turned out). Allmendinger's stats above are a little skewed from 2008, the last 2 years boasts a 15 place average with 2 Top 10s. He's an excellent qualifier, especially here, he's even led laps. I will be looking for a reason to start A.J. this weekend. You can't discredit Marcos Ambrose as a potential sleeper as well. Ambrose had a solid run at Darlington, and had a solid run at Bristol earlier this year as well.

Martin Truex Jr. calls this track home and always seems to run well here before something comes up to bite this team during the race (much like the rest of this season). Truex comes with a big red flag, even if impressive in practice. Truex was impressive in practice at Bristol, qualified well, and raced well to start the race. But once the track took on more and more rubber, Truex could not keep ahead of the track, and fell to a 17th place finish.

C-LIST:
Paul Menard is by far the best option in the C-List going into this race, and should darn near be a lock for a starting position. Menard was Top 5 and led at Bristol this year, and has a Top 10 here in lesser equipment. It would take a very impressive run by a fellow C-Lister to bump the 27 out of my starting spot.

Don't get too drunk on the Regan Smith wine this week. I loved that he got the win and he's got all the confidence in the world coming into this week, but 1% of his laps have been run inside the Top 15 here, and that is a mind blowingly poor number.

David Ragan's numbers here are 2nd best behind Menard. Darlington derailed the momentum this team had, but with his Roush team mates to lean on, I think Ragan has potential here, and will also get looks as a starter.

Bobby Labonte could be a start save here in the C-List. Labonte had a solid Top 15-20 day going at Darlington before the last lap wreck, and Labonte was very stout at Bristol earlier this year. Labonte will more than likely be paired with Menard on my C this week, and if Labonte can out-qualify Menard and seems to be in his ballpark in practice, you could sneak a start out of the 47.


So remember, we get to see the practice sessions before locking down late Friday night, once again, head over to the Forum at www.FantasyNascarPreview.com to see our team heading into qualifying. We'll have a full wrap up of practice and qualifying, and our official starting team posted here on Saturday evening.

DARLINGTON - Lockdown

Rain washed away most of the practice session, and heavily affected the numbers since most teams did not make any extended race runs as they were too worried about getting a fast lap in Q-trim so they could have a better Q-position. So this weeks review will be a little shorter than normal, and all of my rankings come with the asterisk of educated guess.

We obviously know pit selection and qualifying is very important here. The numbers suggest if your outside the Top 12 you're in trouble when it comes to being a race winner. So let's check out the pit selection:

A-LIST:
 Hamlin, Edwards, Gordon, and Stewart all have Top 10 starting positions, so history would show they are favorites coming into the race. However you can't count out Kyle Busch starting 14th.

I'm big on Ford's this weekend. Carl Edwards is already doing backflips out of excitement over how his car is performing, and its going to be a toss up between Edwards and Kyle Busch as to the race winner. Edwards has Robby Gordon behind him so he'll have an easy in, and an opening in front. Kyle has Bobby Labonte behind him, so that should be an easy in, but might have to contend with Martin Truex on his exit, however I do like Kyle being farther down pit road compared to Carl being in the middle of the pit lane.

2nd tier driver of Denny Hamlin and Jeff Gordon should be in contention for the win, but I think they'll just end up Top 5, Hamlin is especially pleased with his car. Both Hamlin and Gordon have pretty easy in/outs on pit road. Greg Biffle is also "extremely happy" with his car, but he chunked it in qualifying. Surprisingly, Biffle has a great pit selection, with the 37/87 on either side of him. Matt Kenseth should also be strong but his pit selection isn't as good and I think he'll rank behind Biffle, just barely. Both are Top 10 with potential Top 5.

A-LIST RANKS: 99, 18, 11, 24, 16, 17, 14, 48, 29, 22


B-LIST:
I posted on www.FantasyNascarPreview.com about having a "hunch" on Kasey Kahne, and boy was a right. Too bad I didn't have the stones to pull the trigger and put him on my team. Fact is he can't close the deal here, and has failed to finish on the lead lap the last 3 years here. Kahne was in a league of his own right off the truck, and was one of the few drivers who did a long run early, and was very impressive in that run. I still worry that Kahne won't close the deal, but he's got a Top 5 car if he can, maybe even a race winner.

Ryan Newman is also impressive and has good track position. Even though there is still some pretty heated emotions between the 39 and 42, Montoya isn't on the same pace as Newman and unless they mix it up in pit strategy, the two shouldn't see each other on track that often. Newman should be Top 10 material.

Brian Vickers, Marcos Ambrose, and A.J. Allmendinger were all impressive in qualifying, and depending on your roster, any of these 3 could be potential starters for you. Ambrose was the most impressive from this bunch at Texas, so I'll give Marcos the lead of this group in the rankings.

A lot of experts, including myself put Martin Truex Jr, Jeff Burton, and Dale Earnhardt Jr on our teams. All 3 of which were dreadful in qualifying and have dug themselves a deep hole already. I like Burton out of this group with his even temper, should be good for a Top 15. I think Martin Truex could surprise and break into the Top 10, but I could easily see him struggle and barely be Top 20 as well, he's a risk. Junior isn't up to snuff this weekend, never found speed in practice and he'll be shooting for a Top 15 at best.

B-LIST RANKS: 39, 4, 20, 9, 31, 83, 56, 43, 42, 88, 5, 00, 2, 1


C-LIST:
Surprisingly the C-List has a lot of options not named Menard this week. I'm giving the nod to David Ragan as the leader of the C, he's got the most momentum coming into this race and the best starting position and best pit selection. Regan Smith slightly out-performed Ragan in practice but I don't think he'll last the 500 miles the way Ragan will, the 78 should be battling for a Top 20 with Bobby Labonte who has been very solid and consistent this weekend.

C-LIST RANKS: 6, 47, 78, 27, rest


I did pull the last minute audible and put Biffle in for Kyle Busch, which turned out to be a mistake, so our team heading into the race looks like this:

Greg Biffle (9 Starts Remaining)
Ryan Newman (7 Starts Remaining)
Jeff Burton (6 Starts Remaining)
David Ragan (7 Starts Remaining)

 Bench: Kenseth (9), Earnhardt Jr (7), Truex Jr (8), Smith (6)

This lineup could change when Mark Garrow releases his crew chief notes Saturday afternoon, since we don't have much to go off of, his notes will be of increased value this week. Check ESPN.com for his column about 3:00 PM.

I am unsure at this time if I will be hosting a live chat for this race, Darlington happens to fall on my mother's birthday and I will more than likely be taking her out for dinner (and that way I can get my time in with her, and catch the race). I do encourage everyone to check www.FantasyNascarPreview.com and their live chat which should kick off at 4:30 PM EST.

DARLINGTON - Data & Lineup

"The Lady in Black" is certainly one of the most interesting and unique tracks on the circuit. For fantasy purposes, it's hard to compare it to anything else. So we'll be focusing on 2008-2010, as those are the races run since the re-pave of the track.

AVERAGE FINISHING POSITION:
A-List:
J. Gordon - 4th
Hamlin - 7th
Kenseth - 10th
Ku. Busch - 10th

B-List:
Burton - 10th
Keselowski - 10th
Martin - 11th
McMurray - 12th

Truex Jr. - 13th
Earnhardt Jr. - 16th
Montoya - 16th
Newman - 17th

C-List:
Ragan - 19th
Smith - 22nd
Labonte - 23rd
Menard - 27th


% of LAPS INSIDE the TOP 15:
A-List:
J. Gordon - 87%
Ky. Busch - 83%
Ku. Busch - 71%
Harvick - 65%

B-List:
Burton - 81%
Truex Jr. - 72%
McMurray - 68%
Keselowski - 67%

Newman - 64%
Martin - 62%
Reutimann - 58%
Earnhardt Jr. - 51%

C-List:
Ragan - 34%
Smith - 22%
Labonte - 16%
Menard - 6%


OVERALL DRIVER RATING:
A-List:
J. Gordon - 120
Ky. Busch - 108
Hamlin - 102
Biffle - 101

B-List:
Truex Jr. - 100
McMurray - 96
Burton - 96
Martin - 89


Keselowski - 86
Earnhardt Jr. - 86
Newman - 83
Kahne - 82

C-List:
Ragan - 75
Smith - 62
Labonte - 59
Menard - 53


For our team, we will consider the Loop Data above, also factoring in performances on the 1.5 mile tracks so far, as performance at the 1.5s and Darlington performance do have some similarities. We'll also factor in momentum coming off of Richmond.

A-LIST:
KYLE BUSCH (7 Starts Remaining) - Coming off a great performance at Richmond, where he obviously out drove the field, passing cars all night long, it's hard to ignore him coming into Darlington. Darlington is very hard to pass on, but if there is one guy who can get it done, it's going to be Kyle. Like him or not, the kid can drive. It doesn't hurt that he's qualified well at the intermediates this year, and could be in line for a good starting position Saturday night. Kyle's had decent performances at Vegas before blowing up and at Texas before issues struck.

GREG BIFFLE (9 Starts Remaining) - Biffle barely eeks into my starting lineup over a host of other drivers that arguably should make the team this week. Biffle's loop data is a little deceiving as he's had mechanical failures that drop his average finish and % in the Top 15 numbers. Biffle had a Top 5 car in Las Vegas before massive pit errors with the fueling dropped him to 28th, but Biffle turned it around with a 4th at Texas. He's qualified 9th and 4th at the two 1.5s so far, and has an average qualifying position of 10th over the last 3 races here.

Biffle barely makes the team over his team mate, Matt Kenseth. Kenseth is ranks right behind Biffle in the loop data, but Kenseth does have a dominating win at Texas and an 11th at Vegas. He's also got a pole at Vegas and a 4th at Texas to boot. But his qualifying average at Darlington is 21st, and although he's picked it up this year in qualifying, I still don't trust him (for example, he qualified 33rd this past weekend at Richmond). With track position so important here, I don't want to feel "forced" into starting Kyle Busch if Kenseth is on my team and starts 20 positions deeper in the field, I feel Biffle gives me more flexibility.

How come Jeff Gordon isn't on my team? Simple, his 1.5s so far have been terrible, and even though his previous stats here are impressive, its hard to look past the fact that this team is struggling as of late. Carl Edwards is another who just misses out on the team this week. No doubt Carl has been the man on 1.5s, but with Kenseth and Biffle on par, or even a touch better here at Darlington, I'll save Carl for the more conventional 1.5s.

Jimmie Johnson was penciled in for a possible start here, but after the struggles at Richmond, including an argument between Johnson/Knaus on the radio, I'm holding off still on starting Johnson. We know he'll be strong down the stretch, and this isn't one of Johnson's dominate tracks as is, so I'm saving him for greener pastures. I'm not on board with Denny Hamlin yet either after his 2nd place in Richmond, the night race at Texas where he was a complete non-factor after winning the race in 2010 was very telling.

B-LIST:
RYAN NEWMAN (7 Starts Remaining) - Newman has the potential to make you big points against other players in your league. His stats here are skewed on some bad luck, but his performance here has been outstanding. 5th at Vegas and 14th at Texas to boot. A lot of people will leave him off the team, worried of the continuing Montoya feud, but at a track where there are so many variables, including smacking the wall by yourself, you can't factor that in. Newman is a great qualifier as well which will be critical here.

DALE EARNHARDT Jr. (7 Starts Remaining) - Remember those outstanding stats above for Jeff Gordon? That came with Steve Letarte on the pit box. Juniors record here isn't bad, and he's got an 8th and 9th place finish at the 1.5s this year. If Junior doesn't show up in the "funk" he was in at Richmond, he'll be a B-List contender.

MARTIN TRUEX Jr. (8 Starts Remaining) - No denying that this one of Martin's best tracks. His stats here are great, and he's got a 6th place at Vegas and a Top-15 run at Texas until he got wrecked on a restart. Truex struggles in the day races to keep up with the track, but he's proved at Texas and Richmond that the night time consistency really plays into their favor.

JEFF BURTON (6 Starts Remaining) - Slowly, Burton is getting things turned around. He's got his contract and sponsor re-signed, and he was a Top 10 contender at Texas. Burton's stats here are steady and he could be a good insurance policy if the 2 juniors above crap out in practice or qualifying.

Clint Bowyer's name doesn't even reach the radar in any of the loop data, yikes! Even though Bowyer was strong at Texas, there is no way you can risk blowing a Bowyer start on a track he's awful at. Team mates Jamie McMurray and Juan Pablo Montoya could have arguments on making your team. McMurray has good overall stats here, but has been out to lunch at the 2 intermediate tracks this year. Montoya is in the same boat as Edwards is, great 1.5 stats but his performance here at Darlington is mid pack. Montoya will have value at the road courses and standard 1.5s, so I'm saving him.

Kasey Kahne won the truck race here a few weeks back, and is coming off a good weekend at Richmond, but much like McMurray, the Red Bull 1.5 program has been terrible so far. Marcos Ambrose is another driver with great 1.5 stats so far this year, but his numbers here at Darlington leave much to be desired. I think Truex is your safer sleeper pick this week.

C-LIST:
DAVID RAGAN (7 Starts Remaining) - Ragan is on a roll, and I am all about striking while the iron is hot. His 1.5 performance hasn't been bad this year and he leads all C-List drivers in every category. He's a must on your team.

REGAN SMITH (6 Starts Remaining) - With qualifying so important here, I'm putting Regan on my team this week. Although I expect to start the 6 car, Regan's stats here aren't bad. Regan has had troubles at both intermediate tracks so far this year, which worries me a bit. But he's mostly on the team in case of emergency on the 6, and the hopes for qualifying points.

Paul Menard has hit a bit of a rough patch, and his numbers here at Darlington are terrible, this is another good week to sit Menard until the standard 1.5 tracks come back later this month. Bobby Labonte just misses the team this week, although he should be good for a Top 20-25 finish, as he's been decent here even in sub par equipment. I'm not jumping on the Dave Blaney band wagon just yet, but he'll get some glances this weekend to see how his performance stacks up.


Same schedule this weekend, with lockdown Thursday night, practices and qualifying on Friday, and the race n Saturday night. Good luck!

RICHMOND 1 - Wrap Up

Richmond is in the books, and Kyle Busch proved once again why you never doubt him, especially at Richmond or Bristol. The dominance by Busch and Yahoo's bonus point system helped make up for some of the inevitable disappointment people experienced in their B-List. We picked Kyle as the race winner, which makes us 3 for 9 this year on predicting the race winner.

Denny Hamlin proved to be a solid pick, although he gave up 12 points Vs. Kyle. It should still be noted that even though he had a good run, a bad pit stop early on shifted the momentum, which Hamlin and crew could never fully get back. This still gives me doubts about Hamlin and his team moving forward.

Jeff Gordon had a decent run going until being caught up in the big wreck. Team mate Jimmie Johnson's performance was downright frightening most of the race, and we even heard unusual frustration between Johnson and Knaus on the radio. I'd sit Johnson at Darlington, but he'll make the team at Dover, however he is not a lock to start until we see some turnaround from this team, especially since we know they are historically more valuable down the stretch.

Kevin Harvick and the "Mr. Where-Did-He-Come-From" strategy never materialized. The cautions fell the way they did and helped many, but Harvick could not overcome his struggles he had all night.

Not that there was many reason's to start Kurt Busch anyways, but he is a much bench at this point. The Penske program is terrible this year, and Kurt is not shy to let everyone know. Couple that with the fact that Kurt has been a wrecking ball on the track, hitting everything but the pace car. You can guarantee that many of the drivers on track will not be cutting Kurt a break anytime soon.


In the B-List, Clint Bowyer proved to be an excellent start once again, and much like Kyle, proved that he is a must start at Richmond. But the real story was the disappointing runs by most of the other favorite B-Lister's. The dust up between Juan Pablo Montoya and Ryan Newman skewed their stats, as both drivers had top 10 runs going. It is important to note that Newman's record at Darlington is outstanding, and I would not leave him off your team this week in fear of further retaliation. Dale Earnhardt Jr. was also underwhelming this week, the off week, for whatever reason, seems to have completely killed the momentum this team had.

On the flip side, there were a few pleasant surprises. Kasey Kahne ended as the top B-List driver, which came as a bit of a surprise. This team is such a yo-yo in performance, it seems they are either Top 10 or 30th, and not much of a middle ground in between. We correctly predicted the sleeper of the week would be A.J. Allmendinger who continues to impress on the short flat tracks. He should continue to make your team as a sleeper at places like Loudon and Richmond, and maybe even Dover coming up.

The teams that struggle with "keeping up with the race track" during the day races as track conditions change proved to be teams that excelled at Richmond. Mark Martin and Martin Truex Jr. are notorious for strong practices but failing to stay ahead of the curve in the race. However with a more consistent track, both teams showed some muscle. Martin got shuffled out of the Top 10 late in the race, and Truex had a wheel left loose, derailing a possible Top 10 for that team.


There is absolutely nothing to get excited about in the C-List coming off of Richmond. Although David Ragan came up big with a 4th place run, his performance in the early and middle parts of the race was awful. A few well placed cautions and lucky dogs saved Ragan from a 20-something place finish. Likewise many people are looking at Dave Blaney and Tommy Baldwin Racing now that they have funding and Blaney comes home with a 13th place run. But again, this was a team that was multiple laps down, and well timed cautions are the only thing that got them back into the hunt.

Paul Menard proved he is a must bench at these short flat tracks, the team really struggled most of the night before getting damaged in the big wreck. The only 2 names that showed any type of consistency were Regan Smith and Bobby Labonte. Regan was able to hang in that Top 20 position most of the night, while Labonte was just outside the Top 20 and had potential to be better, but poorly timed cautions got him caught out on a different pit strategy and trapped numerous laps down.



Our team this week included:
Kyle Busch (8 Starts Remaining)
Clint Bowyer (8 Starts Remaining)
Ryan Newman (8 Starts Remaining)
Bobby Labonte (8 Starts Remaining)

With 23 bonus points factored in, our score this week was 299 points. This makes 4 races in a row where FNG has scored 298 points or more (and the 5th race total this year above 298). This score moved us up 4% in the Yahoo Overall to 89th Percentile.